2016 Reds

Scouting Report: Jose Peraza

Around noon yesterday, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer was first to report that the Reds had traded Todd Frazier to the Chicago White Sox. A few minutes later, we learned that the Reds received three players in exchange – Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Brandon Dixon – all from the Dodgers system.

Of the three, Jose Peraza is the main guy in the deal according to general manager Dick Williams. He said the Reds “keyed in on Peraza from the start.”

What should we make of Peraza?

Basics

Jose Peraza is 6’0”/180 lbs. and will turn 22 on April 30. The Atlanta Braves signed him out of Venezuala in 2010 as a shortstop at the age of 17. Peraza plays right-handed in the field and at the plate. Atlanta converted him to 2B because of their long-term deal with Andrelton Simmons. Peraza mostly played 2B in the minors, but also spent time at SS and CF. He moved quickly through the Braves minor league system.

Peraza spent last year mostly at the AAA level. In July, he was part of a 13-player, 3-team trade (that also involved Bronson Arroyo and Mat Latos) to the Dodgers.

Peraza’s rookie status is still intact and the Reds have the full six years of team control over him. If he makes the Reds’ 25-man roster out of spring training, the earliest Peraza could qualify for arbitration is 2019 and can’t file for free agency until 2022.

Performance

Jose Peraza has had just over 2,000 minor league plate appearances, playing at a much younger age than average in every stop. Peraza hit .302/.342/.387 with 9 home runs, 210 stolen bases (with 49 CS), a 10.4 percent strikeout-rate and a 4.75 percent walk-rate.

During his age-21 season in AAA Peraza hit .293/.316/.378. His walk-rate was 3.3 percent. The Dodgers gave Peraza 25 major-league plate appearances in September.

Here is a video of Peraza taking batting practice at the 2014 futures game:

 

Reports

John Sickles: He doesn’t have huge power or much patience but he makes contact, is an effective base stealer (26 steals this year, 203 in his minor league career), and draws praise for his defense up the middle. The Braves used him mainly at second base and center field this year but he had a good reputation as a shortstop before shifting positions to accommodate Andrelton Simmons.

John Sickles (August 2015): Looking at the most recent scouting reports and the 2015 numbers, my take on Peraza hasn’t really changed since March: he can be reasonably expected to hit in .270-.280 territory at maturity with good speed contributions but minimal power. Given his persistent lack of walks his OBP will be quite dependent on his batting average, which won’t be a big problem in a hot year when he’s hitting .300 but will be in a cold year when he’s hitting .250. His OBPs will be marginal, though the speed and glove will keep him employed even when the bat is cold.

Cliff Corcoran: Peraza lacks power and patience, but the things he does well, combined with his youth and the amount of development time he has left for a player who has already reached the majors, give him the profile of a solid everyday middle infielder, a role he could fill in Cincinnati immediately. Peraza is a significant prospect at an up-the-middle position.

Baseball America: Peraza relies on two tools: hitting and speed. He has a short swing, quick hands and strong wrists, with the hand-eye coordination to put the barrel to the ball at a high rate. He hits to all fields and is adept at going the opposite way. Peraza’s double-plus speed makes him a threat to steal 30 or more bases. He’s a line-drive hitter who can occasionally drive a ball to his pull side, but he probably won’t hit many home runs. Peraza swings at too many pitches, hurting his on-base percentage.

Baseball America: He made a seamless move from shortstop to second base in 2014 while displaying steady, soft hands with above-average range and solid arm strength. He is not flashy in the field but makes all of the routine plays and was voted best defensive second baseman by high Class A Carolina League managers. … The Braves shifted Peraza from shortstop to second base in 2014. He has above-average range and an average arm, but a funky throwing stroke. He also spent time in center field in 2015 to add to his versatility.

Jeff Sullivan: The overwhelming majority of players with Peraza’s profile are below-average hitters, and since Peraza is more defensively competent than defensively gifted, he’s going to need to use his legs. They make him go quick, and that’s a weapon. But I see Peraza more like a 1-2 win player than a 2-3 win player. I haven’t been impressed.

Dan Szymborski (ZiPS) projects Peraza’s 2016 season in Cincinnati at .265/.288/.369 with a walk-rate of 4.8 percent.

Bottom line

Jose Peraza is a solid minor league prospect, although at times he has been viewed as more than that. Peraza is only 21 years old and already made his major league debut. That’s promising. He’s a good 2B who can play SS and CF if necessary. That’s valuable. Peraza could increase his batting average as he ages and develops more plate discipline. He has a long way to go there.

Other teams and scouts don’t see him as an everyday major league player. The Braves wanted Peraza to be their long-term solution at 2B, paired with Simmons at SS. After working with him for several years, they determined Peraza wasn’t that guy and traded him. The Dodgers needed an answer at 2B and traded for Peraza with the hope he would be the one. After a few months, they decided he wasn’t. How do we know that? If they thought Paraza could be their everyday major league 2B, they wouldn’t have traded him for prospects yesterday. According to a former GM, both the Braves and Dodgers see Peraza as a utility player.

The Reds think Jose Peraza has a higher upside than do the Braves, Dodgers and the other critics of yesterday’s trade. The Reds believe baseball is a game heading toward emphasizing speed and defense. They see Peraza as a well rounded player that can provide impact value in those areas. In the best case, he’ll also develop into a .280 hitter with a .330 OBP. Think of Peraza as a similar player to Billy Hamilton, with fewer stolen bases and less defensive value than the Reds’ center fielder. That’s why the Reds were so focused on acquiring Jose Peraza.

The numbers and scouts point to a speedy slap hitter who doesn’t walk or hit for power; a solid, but not spectacular fielder.

The Reds only get to trade Todd Frazier once. They just bet a lot on Jose Peraza. Let’s hope the Reds are right and the Braves and Dodgers are wrong. The organization does have a favorable track record with 22-year-old shortstops from Venezuela.

101 thoughts on “Scouting Report: Jose Peraza

  1. The organization does have a favorable track record with 22-year-old shortstops from Venezuela.

    I was going to point this out🙂

    But let’s hope they were hot after Peraza for better reasons than that positive experience 45-50 years ago.

  2. I don’t think Hamilton is a good comp for Peraza. They are both fast, and lack any power, but Hamilton simply isn’t as talented of a hitter.

    I think the Reds view him as Alcides Escobar, who shares many traits:

    -He was a top 25 SS rated by BA/BP
    -He has a below average walk rate (Escobar career BB% of 4%
    -He has a below average strikeout rate
    -He is super fast and steals bases
    -He plays above average defense
    -He was consistently younger than the guys he was playing against-both made their debuts at 21 years old.

    I don’t like the deal-it reeks of someone falling in love with a toolsy player (probably the same guys who fell in love with B-Ham, but at least Peraza will be a major leaguer, albeit one with an apparent low ceiling. Escobar has put up 10.8 fWAR over his career. Todd Frazier, on the other hand, has put up 15.5 fWAR over a much shorter span.

    • More than anything, I hope the difference between Hamilton and Peraza is that this new guy attempts to make adjustments- any adjustments- as he goes along. Something Hamilton has made little effort to do.

      • I’m not sure if Hamilton’s issues are lack of adjustments or lack of skill, particularly from the left side.

        • From a purely fundamental hitting perspective, Hamilton is very painful to watch from the left side. So was Hal Morris but that said, it worked for Hal Morris. It hasn’t worked for Hamilton. He needs to get sorted out from that side or give up the switch-hitting. Apparently the Reds disagree on the giving up the switch-hitting part. They really need to hire me.

        • I think Hamiltons issue IS lack of adjustment. I can’t help but think that at least one coach or senior player and I hope all of them have pointed out ro him he drops his bat head and swings up at the pitch. This is poor swing mechanics even for a 30 HR guy it is a terrible approach for a toothpick speedsters who could routinely steal 50 bases a year if he could reach base.

      • Toolsy in that he has 2 plus tools. Low ceiling in that those tools are speed and defense. His hit tool has the chance to be plus which raises his ceiling some. Still, I don’t think anyone is looking at this guy and saying “He’s a future All Star”. To me, that isn’t a particularly low ceiling as “serviceable MLB starting middle-infielder” is a pretty decent ceiling to me. Yet, it is a lower ceiling than one would hope to get as the centerpiece of a trade for your All Star, slugging 3B on a fairly low-$$ deal though.

    • The big difference is Peraza keeps the ball down, line drives and grounders. They are COMPLETELY different HITTERs. Peraza can be top half of the order, while Hamilton bottom third.

      Why anyone equates Peraza to Hamilton, one regularly hitting down and using speed and the other rarely hitting the ball down and using is speed, is well beyond my comprehension.

      Steve didn’t mention this difference…again, well beyond my comprehension (agenda?)

  3. My hope is the Reds view Peraza more as a SS than a 2B. I think there is more value there for the Reds.
    My other hope is they move this Dixon kid over to 3B at AA and keep Blandino at 2B. He has a stocky build and has some pop in his bat. Hopefully he and Blandino are ready to join Peraza in the Cincy INF in 2017.

  4. Well I’d take another Davey C. any day but. . . there’s a few pretty big IF’s for that to be the case and even if it is, the other two better pan out in some way as well to make of for the Toddfather. I have my doubts, but I hope I’m wrong.

  5. Saw the Dodgers beat guy for MLB network saying the Reds got the same package for Frazier that they had for Chapman.

    It is clear the Reds coveted Peraza, not just targeted him. As stated by Steve, this is a big bet by the Reds on Peraza. Since I am a big Reds fan, I will be rooting hard for this bet to pay off.

    Since I am a rational human being, though, I have to question the hell out of a front office that wanted such a low ceiling guy so badly that it would use the best trade chip (either Frazier or Chapman) to get him.

    Peraza is a fine option to add to the team. He is just not ever going to be the type of guy you can rebuild a team around, and that is what most of us were hoping for from a trade of our best chip.

    • IT is 100% shocking to me that the Reds would take the same package for Frazier that they had for Chapman. That right there says that our front office does not understand the value of players. That’s really scary.

      How is one year of a relief pitcher that will throw 70 innings, that will cost the team $12+ mil, worth anything even close to two years of an all-star 3B, one of which will cost less than $8 mil?

      There is no way that that makes sense.

      • If true, that is a huge indictment of their effort and thought process. I think Pereza is the wrong type of player to target. But with that aside, if the Reds do not understand that 2 years of Frazier is worth more than 1 year of chapman, they are completely inept. It’s not even arguing if Walt or Williams is making the final decision. The fact that hot would sign off on that type of thinking shows the Reds are in the wrong hands with current leadership. I’d have been disappointed with this return for chapman. It is unacceptable for 2 years of Frazier.

        • How is that the Dodgers willingness to overpay for Chapman a “huge indictment of (the Reds) effort and thought process” ?

        • Thank you (!!!) Pinson for yet again making an astute comment. The Reds would’ve gotten a great haul for 1 year of Chapman. They were obviously sold on both players in that they would take the same return for 2 years of Frazier.

          At the end of the day, if the Reds get two above average starters for Frazier, then the deal is a clear win for the Reds, Even if just one of the two is an above average MLB player, the Reds made a good move. Frazier is only cheap for 2016: a year that the Reds are not expected to be competitive. They needed to move him, and seem quite content in the return for him.

          Seems like only yesterday that most everyone here was slamming the Reds for overvaluing their players and being unable to swing a deal …

      • It would make sense if the Reds are considering trying Chapman as a starter (please, everybody, refrain from nautical metaphors here). It would make sense if they feel something close to certainty that they can get something worthwhile (besides this package) for Chapman. We should remember that Peraza isn’t the only guy they got. We should remember that projections don’t always prove accurate. We should remember that players–some of them–can learn and change. I’ll wait and see.

      • Chapman is over-valued by standard measures because as, Reggie Jackson used to put it, “He puts fannies in the seats.” The Dodgers and others WERE willing to overpay for Chapman (emphasis on WERE). No one was willing to overpay for Frazier.

        “Really scary”… “100% shocking” ???

        • thing is, the package we got in return was IN NO WAY an overpay for Chapman. It was an underpay for Frazier, as pretty much every analyst has pointed out. That they had the same package agreed for with Chapman is just more proof.

    • not close to the Reds best chip. No one, especially Cleveland, thought much about Phillips either. They chose Jhonny Peralta instead and frankly they were wrong about him defensively.

      • I agree with you on BP. I mean how could someone disagree. Phillips was the better player and they gave him up for basically nothing… What I am wondering is who do you think is a better trade chip than Frazier? All-Star and GG candidate at 3B. 2 years and $15-million left on his deal. Even with his bad 2nd half, he’s worth quite a bit. I can’t think of who the Reds could hope to get more for in a trade. Maybe Iglesias?

        • Iggy’s contract has an opt out to arb option (when eligible) similar to what Chapman had. The face value of the contract has $20.5M left due thru the end of the 2020 season. However, it figures that if he stays healthy and performs like he did last year, he will go to arb as soon as he eligible and cost the Reds (or somebody) a lot more than $20.5M cumulative by the end of the 2020 season. Per Cot’s his service time is 154 days which if I understand correctly means he is under team control thru the 2021 season whether or not he opts out of the current contract.

    • I seriously doubt any trade of Frazier or Chapman was ever going to bring you a player who you could build your team around – particularly an MLB-ready prospect. Maybe you could combine Frazier and Chapman in a trade to get an elite prospect or maybe you could find a younger prospect who is still 2-3 years away who you could dream on, but there is only one Reds player who could bring back elite talent. And, we all know who that is.

    • No one was going to give up “the type of guy you can rebuild a team around” for Todd Frazier.

  6. I can’t say that I am pleased with the trade. But I do have some questions.
    1) I need some context for BB%. What is considered average? What is considered good?
    2) Can we expect Peraza to improve his walk rate? How much and will it make much of a difference in his offensive ability/value?
    3) Is the game really shifting to defense and speed? Or are the Reds off the mark here?

    I also think the writing is on the wall for DatDude. I’m curious to see what kind of return he yields if traded.

    • Last year, major league average walk rate was 7.7% and the strikeout rate was 20.4%. For second baseman it was a 6.7% walk rate and a 18% K-rate. A good walk rate would be above 10% and Votto was the best at over 20%.

    • As far as how it affects his value, having an incredibly low walk rate just means that his OBP (single most important basic stat) will always be very close to his batting average. Since he also has a very low K rate, his batting average will be very close to his BABIP. Put the two together, and his OBP will be very close to his BABIP.

      BABIP varies a lot year-to-year so some years that could be good, in others it could be really bad. Having a high walk rate would push his offensive value up and keep it more consistent.

      I don’t really think the game ever shifts. Value is value. Preventing runs is always as good as scoring them. External factors can change the value of different things, like if all the ballparks were made really big hitting high drives would be less valuable, or if all the ballparks were made really small being a speedy outfielder would be less valuable.

      But as last year showed, in the current baseball environment, you can have a really good team that is based on starting pitching (Cardinals), offensive firepower (Blue Jays), or defense and relievers (Royals). It’s a balanced game, and if the Reds think the game is changing, I they are missing the point. The question is how much value does a player provide?

      Peraza is bad at the two most important offensive skills: avoiding outs and hitting for power. It’s hard to be a really valuable player if you can’t do either of those things well. However, it seems like he does do some other stuff pretty well, and that may allow him to be an average major leaguer, which isn’t nothing.

      • Pretty unfair to say he’s “bad at avoiding outs” when he has, other than last year at AAA, been above average at avoiding outs.

        At worst, he’s “slightly below-average at avoiding outs” based on his track record thus far. Perhaps at MLB level he WILL be bad. Remains to be seen.

        Agree 100% with the rest of your post.

      • I appreciate your informed response. It has been educational for me. Thank you

  7. I think Schebler is a sneaky option the Reds got. Left handed outfielder who has some pop which will only help him in Great American Small Park. I’m interested to see how he does.

  8. Most telling to me is that the Reds see the future as hinging on speed and defense. By inference that also says they still believe the key to the game is (starting) pitching above all else; and that is basket they put almost all their high draft eggs into. That’s also how a team gets driven into a deal like this one as they have only one really credible position prospect at AA or higher (Winker).

    • I think you are way off. But if all they have is pitching, other teams with hitters will come to them with guys. Think what might have happened for the Blue Jays if they could pitch.

    • You can’t judge the team on recent drafts as ” believ(ing) the key to the game is (starting) pitching above all else; and that is basket they put almost all their high draft eggs into”.

      They have focused on pitching in recent years because:

      1) they had terrible pitching a decade ago, so they had to build a staff
      2) once they built a quality staff, they were faced with the entire staff becoming expensive/turning over in the space of 2 years. It’s great to be able to trade Simon, Latos, Cueto, and Leake for prospects, but you still need to throw substantial draft resources at your pitching depth prior to those trades in order to ensure that your pitching staff never ever looks like it did 10-15 years ago.
      3) the Cardinals showed in 2015 that great starting pitching can overcome a below average offense.

      Now that the Reds have a great pipeline of pitching prospects, rest assured that their focus will be on position players. Tyler Stephenson is example #1 for that shift in focus.

      • Then where are the position prospects? Frazier, Cozart, and Meso came up 5-4 years ago. Since then nobody that has stuck except BHam,. a unique one trick pony and Barnhart who projects as a career journeyman catcher.

        Meanwhile they’ve gone begging for a LF or a potential replacement for the aging BP or somebody that might push the light hitting Cozart. Their bench has been perennially weak and staffed by a revolving door of AAAA cast offs from other orgs.

        Other than Winker there isn’t a sure fire home grown position prospect north of A+ even today.

        And for all of this the last home grown starting pitcher to stick with the Reds is Mike Leake from 6 years ago. So maybe it turns out they just flat out haven’t been very good at drafting and developing players period.

  9. I’m not sure about this trade yet. Lets see how these guys turn out. I don’t really like how everyone seems to be backing off Peraza as a good prospect. I was hoping for a deal with Cleveland for a package that included one of their OF prospects, Zimmer or Frazier.

  10. Stupid question but where is the power expected in the Reds lineup next season? We lost 29 home runs between 2 positions (Suarez -17 & Peraza -12).
    Dat Dude will be another 12 ( hopefully offset somewhere). Is Suarez a temporary solution at 3rd or does he have the bag for the foreseeable future provided he hits like 2015?

    • I don’t think teams think in terms of replacing lost stats. Also, home runs in a vacuum just aren’t that important. Look at STL’s run of success… they haven’t had a big homer guy since McGwire retired.

    • Our problem isn’t power, but making contact. Having power at the expense of contact (the Reds way outside of Votto for last two decades) is a losing recipe. Peraza is more like the right way, making contact often and rarely striking out.

  11. The power will come from Mesoraco, Bruce, Votto,. However, if the Reds would string together a better bunch of hitters, the Royals proved you do not have to hit homers to score runs.

    • Mez is still a big question IMO. Hope he bounces back 100% but no guarantees he repeats his 2014 hitting.

    • To the contrary, the Royals showed that a timely homer is a wonderful thing to have in a tight postseason series…

      • Timely homers is not lots of homers. A low power team can still hit timely homers (and doubles and singles and sacrafice flies). We need hitters that make contact, work pitchers hard, don’t strikeout often…Peraza is more like the KC model and less like the (failed) Reds model of hot, then dormant sluggers.

    • The Reds are feverishly trying to trade Bruce. The power will come from Votto- when he is not walked, which will be a lot.

  12. I don’t know or profess to know how Peraza will turn out. However, I do remember reading about how Dustin Pedroia, Joe Panik, and Joe Morgan were mediocre secondbaseman when they came up.

    • The only smart guy here. Let’s also remember that most Reds fans wanted Votto in left field after his first year. To many errors and will be a liability at first they screamed. Arm chair GMS they all are.

  13. Anyone see MLB.com’s article on the comparison of prospects the Dodgers and Reds got in the trade (http://m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/159808680/analyzing-prospects-in-todd-frazier-trade) its not uplifting and causes you to scratch your head but its interesting.

    They did have this insight which I hadn’t seen so sorry if I’m late to the game but found this interesting: “It has been reported they are the favorites to land Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez once he becomes available on the international free-agent market.”

    That makes this even more interesting if they sign Alfredo for SS, Keep Suarez at 3B, and Peraza at 2B then maybe the organization has soured on Blandino to a certain extent.

    • Alfredo Rodriguez can’t hit and has no power. IF, and it’s a big if, he makes it to the big leagues, it will be years down the road. While Blandino didn’t fare well in the AZFL, he put up a 370 OBP in A+ Daytona, and a 350 OBP in AA Pensacola this past season. I couldn’t imagine any way in which the Reds have soured on him.

      • Unless Blandino was nursing an injury, I think there would be some concern over the AFL performance. While the guys in that league may be at different developmental levels, it is one of the first exposures limited to only guys who their orgs project as likely to be eventual MLB players. Not a good place to come up snake eyes.

      • Concern not panic on Blandino and the AZL. If I were a Reds minor league evaluator, I’d be cross sectioning his offensive data to see if there was any indication he feasted on low ceiling guys and starved versus guys who looked to be future MLB material.

    • I don’t think they’ve soured on him, I just don’t think he’s ever been anointed the future of 2B in the org. Prospects bust all the time. Having 2 good 2B options is far, far better than having 1 good 2B option.

      • Don’t make too much over his AFL numbers. Maybe he has gone completely in the tank and he all washed up–anything is possible, but it far more likely that he was told to work on a slightly altered batting stance OR try to pull the ball more (or less) that’s what the league and. it’s instructors is for OR maybe the girl friend or his parents or guys from school were visiting and he got caught up in showing them around OR after passing through some airports he caught a cold or the flu(all of you know how the flu can just knock a person down for a few days and even then you are sub par for a week or so afterwards) OR just maybe he is a young person who has worked hard all year at honing his skills and he was just tired. This is why you need scouts and real baseball people on the spot as things happen to observe and talk with players. You can’t put any of the above into a computer (or low or high ceiling) and come up with a number. Get Doug (Reds minor leagues) to ask someone in the farm dept.

  14. I don’t know enough about Pereza to comment but I do have some thoughts.I like that he is 21 and he has already made his big league appearance.He obviously hits well but will that continue and he doesn’t walk much but will that continue?It appears that the Dodgers and Braves don’t believe he is more then a utility player which may be true but to say that about a 21 year old is really odd to me since he has a few years to develop.Of course these other teams may have a pipeline full of middle infielders that can hit and have speed with good defense.We don’t so I say if he earns a job this spring lets see what he can do

  15. I wonder what ‘the knowing ones’ had to say about Pete Rose when he came up in 1963 at the age of 22?

    • It’s a lot different now though isn’t it. Teams back then didn’t have even close to the amount of information that teams today do.

    • Peraza without the speed and slightly better walk rate. Yet Pete Rose was great and Peraza is already a (very young) bust. Pete had almost no power, even in his best years. I see Peraza having more power than Pete did.

  16. I find it really weird but totally this team, that most other teams want high OBP guys that can also hit for power and the Reds apparently want guys with speed and high contact rates. If this guy was the secondary piece to a trade I would be fine with it but as the headlining piece it just makes no sense to me. I don’t see him being more than an average hitter at his best. Perhaps the Reds think they can work on things with him and he will be better than we think but I’m not seeing it.

    • You can’t get a high OBP guy with power that is close to major league ready for 2 seasons of Todd Frazier. Todd isn’t worth that much.

      We are going through a period now where the relative value of prospects has increased because of the immense success enjoyed recently by the likes of Trout, Harper, Correa, Bryant, Schwarber, and even Seager in his cup of coffee.

      Very few blue-chippers have bustes recently, and a guy who has high OBP and hits for power would be a blue-chipper.

      • If the Reds had kept asked as much for Todd Frazier as the people here expected to get, there would have been NO TRADE at all and the same people would be screaming louder. The Reds presumably started with a higher asking price for Todd and no one bit.

    • The Reds should want high contact rate, because that is what has been missing from failed teams of the past 20 years. High walk rates are nice, but the Adam Dunn’s of the Reds World didn’t win anything. OBP is nice, but it isn’t the end all, be all. You need a mix of players that don’t K (OBP is not tied to this) alot first and foremost. A high contact hitter like Peraza simply will NOT K much and that might trump any concerns about low walk rates and OBP. There are runs to be produced even when grounding out, flying out and lining out. High OBP guys that don’t make good contact don’t get those runs in…

      • MICHAEL E–Great comment—-Maybe somebody should look into how many of those 2000+ at bats came in games that his team won. Pete Rose got more hits than anybody else is history and he made more outs that anybody in history. His most impressive stat—-He played in more winning games than anybody in history.

      • “You need a mix of players.” Michael E., you make a lot of sense. Of course you want high OBP and power guys. But after watching the KC Royals offense, teams (including the most analytical) are re-thinking the value of a speedy contact hitter.

  17. I’m guessing the Reds are wrong again. The Braves and Dodgers wouldn’t have give up on this kid if he was going to be a star.

    • Your statement assumes they could tell a 20/21 year old was going to be a star. No one has a crystal ball.

      Also, you have to give up value to get value. Just because a guy is traded doesn’t mean there’s something wrong with him.

      • I could be wrong here, but the person I saw that started the Dodgers and Braves “gave up on him” rumor was Ken Rosenthal on the Mad Dog show. As far as I have seen, not one single official from either of those organizations have said that. For whatever reason Rosenthal seems to have it in for the Reds lately because every time he says something about them it’s not very kind. The Mad Dog, Christopher Russo, had him squirming about those statements and told Kenny that Walt had a great track record for trades and he was going to give him the benefit of the doubt and he finally got that weasal Rosenthal to concede that fact.

        Now, to summarize what I am hearing out here on the coast is:

        ——————————–
        Peraza, who hit right-handed, would have been a less ideal platoon partner with right-handed hitting Kiké Hernandez than Micah Johnson, and the fact that Micah is already 25, is veiwed by the Dodgers as more major league ready. The other word I am hearing is that he was obviously blocked at shortstop by Cory Seager and with the glut of outfielders wasn’t going to see any action there either.
        ———————————

        As far as the Braves are concerned, they picked up the 30 year old Cuban rookie Hector Olivera in that trade and John Hart felt he was more ready than Peraza and had a higher ceiling. So take that for what it’s worth. It should also be pointed out that the Braves tried to sign Olivera when he defected, but he picked the Dodgers instead. Hart basically got the guy he had goo goo eyes for, which is why he felt Peraza was expendable in that trade.

        Again, without getting personal with Kenny, where on earth did he hear that because he was spouting that BS within minutes of the trade.

        The Reds have had goo goo eyes for Peraza since he was with the Braves, and when you consider Uncle Walt’s excellent track record on trades, I am going to cautiously hold my opinion on this. I remember a lot of people last year saying Dombrowski fleeced the Reds on the Suarez for Simon deal so you never know.

        • Very insightful. Thanks. I will say though that I didn’t see many people saying that Dombrowski fleeced the Reds on the Suarez for Simon trade. Most people liked that one. The one that was panned was Desclafani for Latos. I was one of the ones that didn’t think the return was good enough. Thankfully, it would appear that I was one of many who were wrong about that one.

        • Absolutely no one said the Reds lost the Simon trade.

          We need to put a moratorium on these “I remember a lot of people here saying…” type comments. It’s really not adding to your argument, and in cases like this, it’s just inaccurate.

        • Jeremy — “Absolutely no one said the Reds lost the Simon trade”???

          When the typical ratio of comments on this site run 3,4,5 to 1 (negative vs positive), saying “absolutely no one said the Reds lost” borders on the ridiculous. And on other sites, it isn’t hard to find opposing opinions on winners and losers immediately after a trade.

          Perhaps a moratorium is needed on ridiculous comments.

    • So the Braves and Dodgers are the Elite judges of talent in today’s game? One has huge payroll to work with and the other is piling up unproven prospects. I like the Braves rebuild and I like the Dodgers prospects, but nothing is sure yet from either team. I won’t argue they’re both better positioned than the Reds to win in the next few years, but lets not get crazy putting the Dodgers and Braves GMs and scouts on a pedestal.

      • That was one of the points that Russo kept making about the difference in how organizations evaluate talent to Rosenthal. To be really honest, I get why everyone out here is starting to really trash Friedman, especially when he publicly admits that he has found it very challenging working in an organization with money. He doesn’t impress me at all. Losing Grienke to a division rival when you have the the deep pockets that the Dodgers do is totally unacceptable.

        Hart, on the other hand, has a track record of stock piling really good talent and you have to be very impressed with the what he has done so far in Atlanta.

        But, you are right, Michael. Every organization evaluates talent differently so the “talking heads” are pretty much just that.

  18. According to the scouting report Peraza makes a lot of contact and doesn’t walk or strikeout very often.
    I think it would be interesting to see what percent of the time he swings at pitches in and out of the strike zone. This could give some indication on whether pitchers are only throwing him strikes because of his lack of power, or if he is swinging at everything and just able to make contact whether the pitch was a ball or a strike.

    • We’ll have to look at those numbers over a larger sample but in his brief MLB time last year. These from Pitchf/x (league avg in paras)

      O-Swing: 31.0%(30.9%), Z-Swing: 70.3%(64.4%), O-Contact: 84.6%(62.9%), Z-Contact: 92.3%(87.1%)

  19. Uhhh, Ryan. Would that be likened to the way they have worked on things with BHam?
    This is the thing that concerns me with our Reds team. We don’t generally see a great deal of improvement
    from one year to the next with our young guys. At least the last few years. Yet there is this stubborn loyalty issue that continues to dog us. Usually, I would appreciate the heck out of loyalty, but Castellini has almost managed to give loyalty a bad name.
    The other thing I don’t understand about this rebuilding process is, why is Votto exempt? If the whole object is to reduce payroll, why not start with the guy who has the largest contract, by far? The only way that makes sense is if he has maintained he isn’t going anywhere. But that doesn’t really make a lot of sense either. If you came to him with a deal from the Stro’s or Jay’s (2 teams reportedly interested in him) then why in the world wouldn’t he sign off? Those two teams are a whole lot closer to the post season than we are?
    As usual, very little about this organization makes sense, except the marketing side of things. Bobble head anyone?

    • Votto openly stated he wants to stay in Cincy a few weeks ago. Even if Votto wanted to leave and another team wanted to take him, it is a long and hefty contract for another team to take this early on. It is a contract that the Reds will likely benefit from in terms of WAR/$$$ over the life of the contract, but its a big risk for another team. I’d imagine a trade partner would seek a good chunk of money to take his contract.

  20. Unfortunately, plate discipline stats in the minors are hard to come by and sketchy, at best. But, Peraza did have 25 PAs in the show last year. That’s not nearly enough to draw a meaningful conclusion from, but here’s the data anyways with Votto, Bruce, and Phillips for comparison.

    First set of numbers are O-Swing%-Z-Swing%. Second set of numbers are O-Contact%-Z-Contact%.

    Peraza: 33-65 / 85-92
    Votto: 19-62 / 71-83
    Bruce: 32-75 / 62-87
    Phillips: 39-75 / 68-92

    So, if that profile is to be believed, he swings at about as many balls out of the zone as Bruce did last year, but he makes more contact than just about anyone on them. On balls in the zone, he swings as much as Votto, but makes contact as much as Phillips.

    Conclude what you will!

  21. MLB 2015 Top 27 prospects list:
    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Corey Seager
    3. Lucas Giolito- pitcher
    4. Julio Urias- pitcher
    5.JP Crawford- Phillies
    6. Joey Gallo
    7. Tyler Glasnow- pitcher-Pirates
    8. Yoan Moncada
    9. Brendan Rogers – Rockies
    10. Dansby Swanson- just traded to Braves
    11. Trea Turner
    12. Orlando Arcia – Brewers
    13. Rafael Devers
    14. Nomar Mazara
    15. Steven Matz – pitcher
    16. Alex Reyes- pitcher-cardinals
    17. Aaron Judge
    18. Franklin Barreto
    19. Sean Newcomb – pitcher
    20. Jose Berrios- pitcher
    21. Alex Bregman
    22. Austin Meadows- Pirates
    23. Jose De Leon- pitcher
    24. Jose Peraza
    25. Manuel Margot
    26. Bradley Zimmer- OF Cleveland
    27. Jesse Winker

    I’m on the fence about this trade. Definitely bummed that they had to trade Frazier, but the reality is what it is. At first, I was pretty disappointed with what most agree was a pretty small return for Frazier. Then I started looking at the top prospects list to see what was out there. I imagine the Reds had a lot of different criteria, but the commonality seemed to be they were looking for at least these:
    1. Position Player
    2. Close to MLB
    3. Decent hitter/table setter/OBP

    Now look again at the list above, and you can pretty quickly take away options from that list. Doubt we had a shot at #1-12 since most of them have been labeled “untouchable” at some point, and there are an additional 5 pitchers on the list ahead of Peraza that the Reds wouldn’t necessarily target. You could go back and forth on a lot of the others as far as availability, good trade partner, skill level, and being close to MLB. Several other of the top prospects belong to teams that are also rebuilding. It just doesn’t look like there were a ton of good, available, options out there. So I think the Reds picked the available guy that plays good defense and projects to be at least an average MLB hitter at a premium position. He also has excellent contact skills. At least we should be less likely to see the batter whiff when there are RISP. I thought the Bruce or Frazier K on the low outside one with runners on was one of the most frustrating things to watch last year, especially in the second half. Followed closely by the classic Phillips GIDP…

    So, it seems like they did at least try to get as good a prospect as they could who was also ready for the MLB. There may have been other good options, but it looked like most of them still need a lot of time in the minors. I still don’t really like it (don’t see how it will make the team better), but I think we should at least give the kid a chance to play before we burn down the village.

    • Good point on the RISP issue with the Reds. Again, I think people tended to over value the Toddfather because he was so likable and had some nice raw numbers. The guy was the consummate team player and fan fav. I loved the guy like everyone else, but if you dig a little beyond the excellent WAR and HRs his .210 BA and .286 OBP with RISP was similar to Bruce, among others not named Votto, and was a big reason the Reds would go through those hellish run scoring droughts.

  22. 21 years old and already a full season at AAA. Well ahead of our promised “star”, Winkler. Projections are just that. Frazier was supposed to be a poor replacement for Rolen, and now he’s a 2 time All-Star that the White Sox are giddy over. I’ve never seen Peraza play, and neither have some of these experts that use minor league numbers and perceived opinions of the Dodgers and Braves to project his future. The Reds didn’t have to make this trade, but they studied this kid and really wanted him. Let’s see what happens before we consign him to a mediocre career before he’s 22 years old.

    • My sentiments also. It took Frazier a while to get established with the Reds. Let’s give Peraza a chance to show what he can do. We might be surprised.

    • Wouldn’t expect much. Mostly a salary dump and a chance for Peraza to play every day.

  23. Thanks for the stellar summary, Chad. I don’t see a lot of resemblance between Peraza and Hamilton as hiitters, though. Hamilton is not a contact hitter, nor is he a line drive hitter.

  24. I can think of another 2B that no one figured he’d ever get it together also. Dee Gordon. They both profile similarly, little to no power, contact hitter with low walk rate. Pretty good potential upside if you ask me.

  25. Hi mates,how is the whole thing, and what you want to sayy on the topic of this paragraph,
    in my view its actually remarkable in favor of me.

Comments are closed.