With last night’s game being called before it even started, the Reds (30-35) see the Tigers out of town having taken two of three. This marks the third time a Reds’ game has been postponed this season, and somehow, all three times have been when I write the previews. The game will be replayed at some later date in the season.

Tonight, the Marlins (29-39) come to Cincinnati with only a 40% chance of rain tonight. The Marlins are coming off of a four game split with the Yankees, dropping both road games but taking the two at home. Just yesterday, the injury bug bit the Marlins too as Martin Prado was put on the DL. It must be something in the Cincinnati air.

THE BYRD IS BACK IN TOWN

STARTING PITCHERS
All stats are 2015 actuals:

PITCHER ERA  FIP HR/9 BB% K%
Dan Haren 3.22 4.46 1.44 5.0% 18.1%
Mike Leake 4.35 4.86 1.42 6.7% 13.9%

After a prolonged period of bad pitching, the struggles of Mike Leake seem to have to come to an end or at least subsided for the time being. In his last three starts, Leake has gone 19.0 innings, allowing only seven earned runs. However, in his last start, Leake only lasted 5.0 innings, in which he gave up three runs on five hits and a homer. Reds’ fans (or the fans’ of whichever team Leake lands on) have reason for optimism though as Leake’s xFIP of 3.92 indicates that he should pitch far better the second half of the season.

In the offseason, it seemed like Dan Haren pitching in a Marlins’ jersey was the absolute last thing that would ever happen. The second Haren was traded to South Florida, he demanded a trade back to Southern California or else he would retire. While nothing came to fruition from Haren’s demand, the Marlins’ struggles this season have put him back on the trading block. Considering that Haren is an experienced vet who has been solid all season, he may get his wish after all.

Haren struggled a bit in his last start, giving up three runs on three hits including two homers, but for the most part this season, he has consistently given the Marlins 6.0 or 7.0 strong innings. Traditionally a groundball pitcher, Haren has been pitching to the strengths of Marlins Park this year, letting balls take flight only to fall feebly for outs in the spacious outfield grass. That approach is probably why Haren has pitched far better at home then away, a 2.32 ERA in Miami vs. a 4.23 everywhere else.

STARTING LINEUPS
Marlon Byrd makes his triumphant return to the Reds’ lineup tonight as both Bruce and Frazier are featured:

1. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
2. Joey Votto (L) 1B
3. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF
5. Marlon Byrd (R) LF
6. Eugenio Suarez (R) SS
7. Tucker Barnhart (S) C
8. Mike Leake (R) P
9. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
WESLEY

Giancarlo Stanton said today that he would participate in the Home Run Derby if he was asked to. Well, here is his audition:

1. Dee Gordon (L) 2B
2. Derek Dietrich (L) 3B
3. Christian Yelich (L) LF
4. Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF
5. Marcell Ozuna (R) CF
6. Justin Bour (L) 1B
7. J.T. Realmuto (R) C
8. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS
9. Dan Haren (R) P
WESLEY

ALL STAR SHENANIGANS


JON MOSCOT OUT FOR THE SEASON
The rookie righthander is done for the season, needing surgery to repair his dislocated left shoulder. The injury was suffered as he tried to tag out the Tigers’ Anthony Gose in the first inning of Monday’s game. It was only Moscot’s third career start. Said Bryan Price:

“It would be optimistic to think that he’ll be back pitching [this season]. That being said, he’s a young man with a great work ethic so I don’t know the exact time table. It’s certainly longer than it would be if the injury didn’t need the surgical repair so the exact amount of time I’m not 100 percent sure.”

In more optimistic news:


NASTIEST RELIEVER IN BASEBALL?
For the past four years, us Reds’ fans have been conditioned to just know that Aroldis Chapman is the nastiest reliever in baseball. I mean he can throw 105 for goodness sake, how could he not be?

Well, yesterday Grantland published an article that disputes that claim. Yes, Chapman throws the hardest, but Carter Capps of the Miami Marlins has the highest perceived velocity. Why? Because he basically lunges forward three feet when he pitches. It’s an immensely interesting article that should be given a read, but if you don’t have time, just check it out for the gif of Capps pitching.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Compared to yesterday’s lineup, today’s looks like the Reds’ recently hit the lottery and are now spoiled with riches. The fact that Marlon Byrd can exact that kind of hyperbole from me is just so, very sad. The injury bug is the worst.

Go REDS

135 Responses

  1. Kurt Frost

    4:55!! Thank you. Now I can ponder Marlon Byrd’s march to 550 plate appearances on the way home.

  2. seat101

    It’s not over the top hyperbole. It’s more like the Reds won a $20 million lottery and share the prize with five other people.

    Alas, you are right, it is sad. Ocbh, The rest has done Mr. Byrd some good. And, that no balls or hit to left field. On the other hand Mr. Bird is known to feel balls hit to him on the ground.

    So there is that. Go Reds!

  3. Redgoggles

    I too, am skeptical of Bryd’s quick return and hope this isn’t a case of players interest before the teams interest. (This year and next.) Maybe he’ll go on a hot streak and turn himself into a decent trade chip.

    • Redgoggles

      He has averaged 3.51 ABs for his games played, so even if he played all 97 remaining games, I think he would be short the necessary ABs. Unless it is 550 plate appearances and not ABs?

  4. renbutler

    I think that 40% chance of rain is way too optimistic.

    There will be rain at the ballpark. But I think we will see some baseball tonight — perhaps even five full innings.

  5. ohiojimw

    Baseball can indeed be a seemingly cruel game and tough business. Not only does the pitcher who saved the day for the Reds Wednesday, Darin Hand, get sent back to AAA, the guy who hit the 8th inning pinch hit homer to get the Tigers a leg up in that game, Tyler Collins, also went back to AAA to (V Martinez activated took his spot).

  6. jdx19

    Dan Haren mad at the ump when he threw exactly 1 strike in the AB… Silly Dan.

  7. jdx19

    What is Votto’s OB streak up to? 26?

  8. VaRedsFan

    That, is why Bruce gets more grief than BP despite similar numbers for much of the season.

    • Kurt Frost

      Phillips led off the game with an out.

      • VaRedsFan

        If Bruce did what BP did, the Reds would have a run

      • Vanessa Galagnara

        excellent point! Bruce is in the 4 hole he is expected to drive in a run in that situation. Did he deliver based upon where he is batting? NO

    • Vanessa Galagnara

      you are correct sir. The expectations and demand for production is more on Bruce than Phillips. Bruce is wilting in the lime light of batting in the middle of the order. Maybe he should bat leadoff if his OBP is so glorious?

      • Steve Mancuso

        Your anti-Bruce nonsense makes it hard to take the rest of what you say seriously. Bruce was 5-for-6 last game.

      • Vanessa Galagnara

        Because I think he strikes out way to much with less than 2 outs means that I cannot be taken seriously? Your inability to not be biased towards your favorite players makes it difficult to take anything you say seriously.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Because you say things like: “Bruce is wilting in the lime light of batting in the middle of the order.” One way to address bias is to use facts, not opinions.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Just doesn’t handle pressure very well, never has.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Guy averaged 30 home runs and 100 RBI over three years. “doesn’t handle pressure very well” please. What is this, opposite night?

      • Steve Mancuso

        Take a poll on whether Bruce averaged 30 home runs and 100 RBI over three years? That he was like the only player in the league to do that? What exactly are we polling?

      • Steve Mancuso

        Bruce last 30 days: .303/.410/.505 (doesn’t handle pressure well)

      • Steve Mancuso

        Bruce career: .250/.324/.464
        Bruce high leverage career: .251/.337/.460

        Sure wilts under pressure.

      • Kurt Frost

        Seriously? He’s one of 750 players in the major leagues. I say to get where he is he handles pressure just fine.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Poll question: Rank in order who you would like up when the chips are down?

        Great guy just wilts under the pressure. Just my take take.

      • Dr. K

        Couldn’t you just as easily find a video with Bruce striking out with the bases loaded in Game 5 against the Giants? Bruce gets his numbers, yes, but he’s not the guy I want up there with the game on the line. I love this blog, but there are definite favorites, and Bruce is absolutely one of them.

    • Dr. K

      I don’t know, but they are hideous. Just got home and when the US Open advertised flipped it up there and muttered several obscenities about how awful they are. Had to get on here to see why they were wearing such things.

    • SlyMcBean

      Maybe to show support for the Irish students who died in California

  9. VaRedsFan

    Arod got his 3000th hit on a HR in the 1st

    • jdx19

      Fitting, I’d say.

      I’m actually more impressed by 3000 hits than any HR feat he pulls.

  10. Vanessa Galagnara

    Is it just me or is Leake pitching faster than normal today?

  11. Steve Mancuso

    Career OPS in “high leverage” situations:

    Votto 1.202
    Frazier .864
    Bruce .797
    Phillips .756
    Byrd .754
    Pena .570
    Hamilton .488

    • VaRedsFan

      Bruce post 2013 is not the same as he was prior to that.

      • jdx19

        So, injury-fueled 2014 and poor BABIP April 2015. Got it. 😉

      • VaRedsFan

        He was on the the DL for what 3 weeks?

      • Steve Mancuso

        Bruce was hurt in 2014 and he got off to a slow start in April. But for more than a month, he’s been at least as good as he was before his injury. Walk rate way up this year, strikeouts down lower than in 2014 or 2013. Hard-hit rate way up. Swinging strike rate way down.

    • VaRedsFan

      Tiger Woods, great 2 years ago…Do you assess him now based on his career numbers?

      • VaRedsFan

        Not at all. It’s looking at someones career achievements vs. where they are now. How do you view it?

      • jdx19

        I view it as a GOLFER who stepped out on his wife with 100+ women and got his name dragged through the global media for years who also got injured and got old being compared to a baseball player who has almost none of those things in common (other than being injured).

      • Dr. K

        You’re right, it is a completely ridiculous comparison. Woods is one of the greatest ever to play golf, Bruce isn’t even one of the greatest Reds to ever play baseball.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Jay Bruce in the last 30 days has the 14th best run-contribution in the NL. So if recent data is worth more, then the last month should mean more than the first month.

        And Bruce’s strong performance the past 30 days also means the analogy to Tiger Woods is flawed, since he hasn’t had a strong last 30 days.

        I agree that players can get worse, even all of a sudden. But it’s pretty rare at age 27. Don’t know what you’ve been seeing, but Bruce has looked dialed-in to me for over a month. Numbers back me up.

      • jdx19

        Well stated. Players can get worse all of a sudden, but when they do, they generally don’t have career best plate discipline and hard-hit numbers.

    • Vanessa Galagnara

      Vottos numbers are just insane. Bruce has how many at bats as compared to Phillips? Curious how they would stack up if compared through the same age. I”m not saying Bruce is a bum or anything. but he isn’t performing as we would expect him to Steve. Phillips is performing better than we expected….. sure probably not as good as Bruce but better than we expected and Bruce just isn’t there yet. When the season is said and done maybe it all evens out I don’t know. But to me it sure does appear that he strikes out quite a bit with less than 2 outs and that is really my only beef or concern with the guy.

      • jdx19

        Bruce is going to strike out 25-28% of the time regardless of the situation. He strikes out a lot. That is who he is. Not sure why that is the point you stick to.

      • Vanessa Galagnara

        “He strikes out a lot. Tat is who he is.”…….. That is the part of his game I don’t like. You make my point thank you.

      • jdx19

        Is your only point that he strikes out a lot? I don’t think so…

        So, I haven’t made your point for you.

        Here’s a list of players who have struck out more than Jay Bruce this year and their wRC+:

        Giancarlo Stanton (158)
        Kris Bryant (144)
        George Springer (139)
        Nelson Cruz (162)
        Brandon Belt (133)
        Joc Pederson (156)

        Striking out is not good, obviously, but it’s not like guys who strike out a lot can’t be good hitters. Bruce isn’t doing as good as any of those hitters, of course, but focusing on only strikeouts is about as short-sighted as it gets.

  12. PhoenixPhil

    Is Leake trying to get traded? Looking good tonight. No jinxes, no jinxes.

  13. Vanessa Galagnara

    does that mean he didn’t come back to soon? Nicely done Mr. Byrd

      • Vanessa Galagnara

        I was hoping he would stay out longer to give DeJesus more at bats but… if he keeps hitting dingers you won’t hear any complaints from me.

      • jdx19

        Yeah, I was somewhat excited to see some new faces. But if he hits, all is well with the world.

  14. Vanessa Galagnara

    and just like that Leake cant find the strike zone. does he have blister or something?

  15. jdx19

    Watching Billy hit left-handed is painful. Reminds me of when I hit left-handed at 16 yrs old when I was playing wiffle ball with my 12-yr old cousins.

    • Vanessa Galagnara

      LoL. I thought I read somewhere that he is considering dropping switch hitting. Maybe that will be his next off season project? Nothing worse than watching a guy with demon speed and a woeful .260 OBP strikeout.

      • Vicferrari

        Did you read somewhere besides here, because a lot have called for it, seems like when it gets to be a trend on here then it becomes attempted.

      • Dr. K

        There was an article in the Enquirer about it recently. Said he would not do it during the season, but has considered abandoning it in the future. Don’t remember Price’s exact quote, but he was willing to give Hamilton more time to develop from the left handed side.

      • vegastypo

        Right, and I saw references on Twitter from Fay and/or Sheldon about it, probably from that same set of interviews. … Just strikes me as amazing that it takes the Reds braintrust so long to figure out what so many people here can see months earlier.

    • renbutler

      My son is left-handed, so I learned to swing left-handed to teach him how to bat. Now it feels unnatural to bat right-handed…

  16. jdx19

    Headed out to dinner with Mrs. JDX.

    Keep fightin’ the good fight, people! 🙂 And go vote for Todd some! (After all these years, I finally signed up for a twitter account to try and get that baseball).

  17. Vanessa Galagnara

    If I am the manager of the Reds that would be the last inning for Leake. Tremendous K on Stanton but he has lost the strike zone.

    • Vicferrari

      Maybe if you were the manager you would consider what kind of bullpen and being able to look Leake right in the face and see if he was losing it or you could get him on track with a little sage advice.
      I say Leake at least for the 7th is a pretty easy call.

  18. Vanessa Galagnara

    come on Jay! You can do it!!!

  19. msanmoore

    You know, for one brief shining moment, I though Mr. Leake might just give us that goat farting a rainbow … then reality struck and I’m glad to be ahead after 6.

  20. Vicferrari

    AM I am not seeing any comments? What is going on with Leake had no hitter for 52/3 innings but feels like he is about to have a meltdown. Walks 3 out 5 batters including the pitcher gets a DP but I thought was the 2nd fastest player in baseball, then hits a batter before giving up a single then K’s the league HR hitter….felt like deja vu all over again with Cueto’s outing.

    • msanmoore

      Yep – same feeling here. Good thing Frazier did his thing and we got the run down out.

      • Vicferrari

        Following on Gameday…Can’t see the game, but I take it he made a pretty nice play to save a potential big inning.

      • msanmoore

        Should be on the Gameday video. I only saw it because MLB cut the price of TV to $50 a few days early this year for their annual sale. It’s my Father’s Day gift to myself.

    • Vicferrari

      Almost wants to pitch around the SS to get Haren out of the game

    • Vanessa Galagnara

      yup. The defense saved his bacon that inning. I am hoping we see a pinch hitter this inning. He pitched a great game but time to get him out of there.

  21. msanmoore

    OK, Frazier isn’t human … he just can’t be.

  22. msanmoore

    And a TOOTBLAN for the bad guys! Got to love it.

    • Ellis Henry

      Must have been hanging to the right…

  23. Vanessa Galagnara

    nice coaching Mr. Price and an excellent situation hit by the Schuck

    • Vicferrari

      Is it my imagination or has he been a good PH this year, I never got the impression he was that great of it

      • VaRedsFan

        he’s been very good…which is why he doesn’t need to be starting

      • Vicferrari

        He actually is 3 for 8 as a DH & below .190 as a fielder

      • Vicferrari

        Looked it up 8 for 24 with 3 rBI by my count, anyone have an idea who has the most PH in the league I assume it would be an NL er

      • Vanessa Galagnara

        That is pretty good for any pinch hitter. Maybe he has found how to survive in baseball until he is 40?

  24. VaRedsFan

    Chapman vs. Stanton leading off the 9th

    • msanmoore

      So that’s a K on an off-speed … or it ends up in Kentucky.

    • Vicferrari

      Hope Chapman does not get too cute and walk him as his run means nothing, hope the Reds get 1 more because if it is more than that we do not see the matchup

  25. Vicferrari

    Hoover is pitching like Broxton was last year, I keep waiting for him to come back to the career numbers or at least 2013…but the no ER streak just keeps going

  26. Jeff

    Reds are much more fun to watch with a good JJ Hoover.

    • Vicferrari

      ie any reliever who can enter the 8th with a lead a leave with it

      • Jeff

        I like Hoover for whatever reason. So I didn’t like him getting beat up every game last year.

  27. Vanessa Galagnara

    that was practically an intentional walk. Time for Frazier to make them pay for that.

  28. Vanessa Galagnara

    Frazier must be seeing the ball better this year.

  29. Vicferrari

    Cannot see the game, but did Jay Bruce wilt a double with all that pressure in a tight game?

    • msanmoore

      Clean stroke to the RF corner. Beauty of a hit!

    • Vicferrari

      I was making light of the rather heated debate going on earlier

  30. Jeff

    When is Bruce going to get it?

    Will he still bring in Chapman now that it’s a 4 run game? Probably not.

    • kmartin

      One of two possibilities: 1) Chapman warms up and is not used, or 2) Chapman is used with a big lead.

    • Vicferrari

      I would like to see the matchup with Stanton when the game is not exactly on the line

    • Vicferrari

      If he does not bring him in I wonder if he would should the 1st 2 fish get on, if understand the rules right that would not be a save situation

  31. Vanessa Galagnara

    Now thats the JB I want to see!!!!! Way to go Jay!!!

  32. rhayex

    Whoop boy it finally sunk in. Re: trading Frazier, via Reddit:

    Let’s say the Reds get off easy and sign Frazier to a deal at $10m a year. In 2017, the Reds are on the hook for $76.5 million dollars for 6 players. Great, the Reds double their FoxSports money ($30m) and dump every penny into payroll, raising their payroll from this $115m this year to $145m. $68.5m to spread across 19 players. You need the following starters, in no particular order:
    Left field
    Right field
    Cozart’s third year of arbitration
    Billy’s first year of arbitration
    4 starting pitchers (Iglesias will make $4.2m)
    an entire bullpen
    your bench
    .. adding up to 19 players, making an average of 3.6m. 2015 league average salary is $4m. This team has no option except to staff with players like Boesch and Gregg just to fill spots on the roster for pocket change. Competing is not an option. It doesn’t matter that we have “pretty much no one” to replace him. You put a guy on third base who has two arms, two legs, and a glove.

  33. Jeff

    Stealing 3rd base, c’mon Bruce try to stand up to the pressure.

  34. msanmoore

    So not Chappy cuz “closers’ union rules”. Let’s see if Pedro can keep it in the ballpark.

  35. Vanessa Galagnara

    I like it when the batters prove me wrong. Jay proved me wrong today I will say that.

  36. Vanessa Galagnara

    On another note. If our second round selection from the draft doesnt sign even if we offered the slot value does that mean we get an additional pick next year?

  37. I-71_Exile

    Nice win. Who are these green-suited Redlegs?

  38. Tom Reed

    Great pitching, timely hitting, big win for the Reds.