The Cincinnati Reds (18-26) now find themselves one-half game behind the Colorado Rockies (18-25) in the wildcard standings. The Reds are trying to avoid their 10th loss in a row while the Rockies look to extend their winning streak to four.

STARTING PITCHERS

Jorge De La Rosa 6.51 3.47 0.7 11.6% 24.0%
PITCHER ERA FIP HR/9 BB% K%
Michael Lorenzen 3.79 6.46 1.9 11.5% 12.6%

34-year-old lefty Jorge De La Rosa will make his 7th start of the season tonight for the Rockies. He’s only made it past the 5th inning once this season. In his last start against Philadelphia, he was pulled after throwing 108 pitches and allowing five hits, three walks, and three runs through 4.1 innings. He rarely worked deep into game last year either, throwing more than six innings only seven times in 32 starts.

Michael Lorenzen is making his sixth appearance of the season but just his 4th start after a two week hiatus into the bullpen. He’s only pitched three innings in a live game since his last start on May 10th. In his last two starts, Lorenzen allowed just two runs on ten hits over 11 innings. However, he also walked seven batters and will be looking to improve on that ratio. While he’s allowed three homeruns in just 19 innings, three of those four came in his first start. He’s kept the ball in the park for his last 12 innings.

JOHNNY CUETO’S MRI
Johnny Cueto missed this past Sunday’s start with a sore elbow, had it examined yesterday, and then went for an MRI today:

PROBLEMS
Chad Dotson takes a look at all the problems that this Cueto injury could cause for the Reds.

STARTING LINEUPS
The lineup for the visiting Rockies features a few more regulars than yesterday’s lineup with Troy Tuluwitzki and Carlos Gonazalez returning to the middle of the batting order:

  1. Charlie Blackmon (L) CF
  2. DJ LeMahieu (R) 2B
  3. Carlos Gonzalez (L) RF
  4. Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS
  5. Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
  6. Ben Paulsen (L) 1B
  7. Nick Hundley (R) C
  8. Brandon Barnes (R) LF
  9. Chris Rusin (L) P

Today’s Reds lineup is similar to yesterday’s, keeping Joey Votto batting 2nd and Billy Hamilton 9th. Brandon Phillips is out of the lineup with Kristopher Negron playing second base and batting 7th.

  1. Zack Cozart (R) SS
  2. Joey Votto (L) 1B
  3. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
  4. Jay Bruce (L) RF
  5. Brayan Pena (S) C
  6. Marlon Byrd (R) LF
  7. Kristopher Negron (R) 2B
  8. Michael Lorenzen (R) P
  9. Billy Hamilton (S) CF

JAY BRUCE STREAK
Jay Bruce is looking to extend his on-base streak to 10 games tonight. Over the last nine games, Bruce is batting .424 with a 1.153 OPS and has had five multi-hit games. His OPS+ on the season is now at 102 (100 is league average.)

1500TH GAME
Yesterday marked the 1500th game of Brandon Phillip’s career. 1365 of those games have been played in a Reds uniform. So far this year, he’s hitting .299/.337/.357 (AVG/OBP/SLG) compared to his career slash line of .272/.319/.422. For his career, Phillips has accumulated 1576 hits, 284 doubles, 176 homeruns, and 176 steals to go along with stellar, gold glove defense.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Tonight is the Reds second Bark in the Park night of 2015. A good omen? The Reds won their last Bark in the Park night back on April 27th, snapping a wistfully short 3 game losing streak. They will win one eventually, and tonight is as good a night as any.

Go REDS!

218 Responses

  1. Tom Gray

    Lorenzen is probably a decent hitter for 8th spot. Relatively speaking anyway.

    • reaganspad

      I was thinking he might bat 7th in this lineup.

      come on Kris, prove me wrong

    • George Mirones

      Let’s not get all giddy, the team has lost 9 in a row with that BABIP so he hasn’t made a difference and we both have seen him just go cold in a New York second.
      just sating 🙂

      • jdx19

        I think he’s just showing that as easily as Bruce’s BABIP can be .200 and he looks terrible, his BABIP can be .400 and it looks great. That’s the beauty of math, it always wins.

      • Jeremy Conley

        Exactly what JDX said. I wasn’t stating it was a good thing or bad thing or a sustainable thing. The post talked about how hot Bruce has been lately, and for weeks every other article on RLN was about how terrible Bruce was playing. During those times, a lot of us were saying, his BABIP is crazy low right now, he’s just getting unlucky, and he will probably regress to the mean at some point.

        Over the last two weeks his BABIP has been really high. That is what regression to the mean looks like.

      • MrRed

        It’s an excellent illustration from both of you. However, I think we can all agree with George’s sentiment, even if he was having a different dialogue. We’re gonna need a lot more high BABIPs from everyone to get out of this funk. And it wouldn’t hurt if our pitching could hold their own too.

      • Nick Carrington

        I was in the crazy low BABIP camp. His numbers were so strange. Hard not to see this coming. While he can’t remain this hot forever, I hope he doesn’t go into another prolonged slump.

  2. George Mirones

    Just a thought but this is an opportunity to see if Reds can really hit.
    Marquis has a brother and he is the starter for the Rockies tonight.

  3. Art Wayne Austin

    Bruce, welcome to the 2015 season.

  4. jdx19

    If the Reds can’t touch De La Rosa tonight, I will be a sad camper. But, after turning Jeremy Guthrie into Cy Young for a night (followed by a 1 IP, 11 ER outing), I won’t hold my breath!

    Go, Reds!

  5. Eric the Red

    I’m not in the area. I saw a mention of rain up above. Anybody have an update? Is this game going to happen?

  6. doublenohitter

    Right now, I have no confidence that the Reds can win a game. yes, they will eventually.
    There just isn’t a light at the end of the tunnel.

  7. charlottencredsfan

    Maybe if the Rockies get a couple of runs early it will settle the Reds down a little.

  8. doublenohitter

    I saw an interesting stat. The Reds have only 7 holds from the relievers. That is almost inconceivable. You can get 2 or 3 holds a game by throwing several relievers while you have a lead.

    • tct

      Inconceivable!

      “You keep saying that word. I do not think it means what you think it does.”

      • tct

        Dang, Aaron, if you don’t get that reference then your life is unfulfilled. Princess Bride, dude. Watch it! Then you too can be the dorky dude that quotes it on the internet like me!!

      • Aaron Bradley

        I do remember that line…by the bald guy right… but I didn’t know you were using it for that reason lol

    • jdx19

      Holds are at the behest of the official scorer, if I recall. Some give holds, others don’t. It’s literally the worst stat in baseball. Significantly worse than wins and saves!

  9. charlottencredsfan

    Let’s see if we can fish Cozart out of the tank.

    • charlottencredsfan

      Quickly too. He is not messing around.

  10. Misconcepcion

    Watching from out here in Iowa on mlb.com–looking in from the centerfield camera, I’m seeing A LOT of ‘pig-noses’ behind the plate (er, uh, empty seats). Can’t blame anyone–I’ve already paid for my subscription…

    Still, Go Redlegs!

  11. charlottencredsfan

    Bruce is right on it. A beautiful thing to see.

  12. doublenohitter

    Reds hit great…when no one is on. They need to have the same approach when runners are on. It is uncanny how they can’t hit when there are runners on.

    • pinson343

      Brayan Pena is not a good RHed hitter under any circumstances. With the way that Byrd hits LHed pitching, it’s very surprising that Pena is 5th in the order.

  13. Citizen54

    Lorenzen currently has a K/BB ratio of 1. Not going to last too long the big leagues with a ratio like that.

  14. pinson343

    At least Byrd’s single amounts to something. BHam has good numbers this year batting RHed.

  15. Jeff Morris

    Good to have a run, but why not have Byrd batting 5th. He just singled. If he bats in the 1st, that same single scores 1, maybe 2 runs. This little decisions that Price is making is costing the Reds precious runs they need!

    • jdx19

      I think Price looked at Pena’s batting average, looked at Byrd’s batting average, then filled out the card. Byrd’s career OPS against lefties is over .800. No reason to ever bat him lower than 5th against lefties given the Reds’ personnel.

      • I-71_Exile

        Yes, but that’s his non-age 37 OPS. Just sayin.

      • jdx19

        I’m aware. But his combined 2013 and 2014 were probably the two most productive seasons in a row of his career, so maybe his age 37 OPS isn’t that out of whack.

  16. jdx19

    Five of Votto’s last 6 ABs that didn’t occur in the 1st inning will have been leading off an inning.

      • jdx19

        Well, more accurately it’s that the guys hitting 8-9-1 the last 2 games haven’t been that good at getting on base

        But I wasn’t trying to make a point. It’s just a weird thing with sequencing.

  17. preacherj

    I watched the game with my son yesterday at BW3’s. First, I had to ask several times to put the game on (never a past issue), secondly, my son has never been so disinterested in a Reds game in his young life. When I asked him if he was tired, he said “not as tired as this team”. The spicy garlic was good, at least.

  18. preacherj

    Good job, Pena…..Anyone else notice that Brayan was studying the pitcher. Stared at him in that AB a long time……wonder if he saw something.

  19. preacherj

    OK Michael, need you to get on so we can turn the lineup over……

    • jdx19

      Here’s a time when pitcher 8th is positive. Next inning is Billy, Zack, Joey. Letting Billy “lead off” while not getting the most ABs on the team is the exact reason to do this.

      • preacherj

        Oh, I was only joking. I am a big proponent of the pitcher batting 8th in most circumstances.

  20. preacherj

    Darn it, Billy leading off next inning……

  21. pinson343

    Billy’s been hitting well, batting RHed.

  22. pinson343

    Why aren’t the Reds hitting this guy ?

  23. preacherj

    Normally a solo shot isn’t that big a deal…..but with this team……

  24. jdx19

    Votto slump for another night… maybe tomorrow is the night.

  25. Steelerfan

    Well, so much for getting into their bullpen early.

    Rusin looking good, or is it TOS? I do not know much about him.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Looks like he has a pitch speed range between 87-90 mph. They should be able to do some business.

      • jdx19

        Yeah, for sure. He’s basically Daniel Corcino. DFA’d then picked up by another team, sent to AAA and just happens to be making an emergency start tonight.

  26. preacherj

    That pitch tracker on FSO looks way off. Either that or the camera angle we have isn’t flush.

  27. charlottencredsfan

    Be great to see JB deliver with RISP.

    • jdx19

      At least he gave it a battle. Cy Rusin strikes again.

      • pinson343

        Cy Rusin did balk and it wasn’t called. The Reds need a balk to score.

      • preacherj

        when we talk about how hard Bruce hits balls, we should average in some of the swinging from his heels misses.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Really good AB; we can’t buy a break.

  28. George Mirones

    Reds TV guys talking about talking to a Dodger Scout who had seen the Reds A and AA players recently. They are touting the fact that he said the Reds have some really good guys on those teams. In baseball the rule is never ever disparage the oppositions players or organizations. Why would he tell TV guys the truth.

    • Steelerfan

      And when you are talking about the A and AA guys in late May, it is not a positive sign of how your MLB club is doing.

    • preacherj

      Right, what he tells his bosses is certainly different then he would tell anyone else.

    • preacherj

      I cant bring myself to do it. I understand the logic, but my mind won’t permit it.

    • charlottencredsfan

      Mixed emotions. It is near impossible to root against them even though I know it is the best thing that can happen is they continue to lose. Not a lot of fun.

      • Aaron Bradley

        Sure I understand but a long losing streak is kind of funny… Price may have an epic meltdown soon… I mean it imight make the last one look like a church sermon.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Understand but Walt is really the issue. A new GM will pick his own manager and it will be a new one.

      • Aaron Bradley

        One thing I can tell you, I feel much more confident rooting against them then rooting for them. I sense the bullpen will give this one away.

    • George Mirones

      I, as you, would really like to see the Reds win, but as we both know that would just prolong the agony till next year. Reds management would blame the very, very slow start to injuries and say that’s what caused a poor showing, not the lack of talent. As long as they think that way change will only occur when contracts run out.

  29. preacherj

    Kid’s given up two hits, one run, through six and probably won’t sniff a win.

    • charlottencredsfan

      There is not a thing to complain about with this youngster.

      • Citizen54

        Actually, his FIP today is 5.21, for the season it’s 6.18. His K/BB ratio is horrible. He has potential but he still needs a lot of work. Don’t be fooled by his 3.24 ERA.

      • jdx19

        While I generally agree with the type of analysis you’re doing, a guy making his first few starts in the bigs can’t really accurately be judged by his numbers. Needs a lot more starts.

        The thing I am encouraged by is Lorenzen doesn’t appear to get flustered. I know there is no way to quantify that, but I think after just a few starts that’s all I could really say about him.

      • jdx19

        And 5.04 xFIP coming into the game. I like xFIP much better than FIP for very small sample sizes, up to and including 1/2 a season.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Great minds, think a like.☺

      • Citizen54

        It’s true that the sample size this season is still fairly small but his K/9 has been steadily decreasing as he has moved up in the organization and his performance so far this year hasn’t done much to alleviate this concern. I guess I just can’t too excited for someone and who has a K/BB ratio of close to 1. Ya his results today have been pretty good but going forward his predictive stats don’t look very promising.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Yeah, I’m going by the poise and stuff. Not really concerned about advanced metrics yet. Rookies get a pass, I’m looking at development.

    • Indy Red Man

      I would say he’s being Cueto’d but they’re not scoring for anyone else either

  30. preacherj

    I think cats should have equal time with dogs. Why should they be the only ones with a ‘bark in the park’ type experience? 4000 cats at GABP might be very entertaining.

      • Steelerfan

        A real world trial of the phrase herding cats. Seems like something this front office would try…

      • preacherj

        Just tell ’em they did it at Busch Stadium.

    • I-71_Exile

      That would be incredible. Cats are generally perturbed under the best of circumstances, but add a nice long car ride, a drag from the parking lot, and some more cats to feed the hate and you have…magic. 🙀

  31. Steelerfan

    Lorenzen’s pitching tonight is a positive, regardless of how we all feel about everything else.

    • George Mirones

      Yes, the kid is doing a great job, makes the future seem possible with a few guys who just hit like that’s all they know how to do.

  32. preacherj

    Rockies TOOTBLAN!!! Lorenzen at 90 pitches.

    • Steelerfan

      Should it make us feel better or worse that is his minor league game log?

      • Kyle

        Much worse. He went a full inning more than his longest outing, he gave up one fewer run than his best outing of the year (and threw fewer pitches despite going longer). This is the worst offensive performance of the season.

    • George Mirones

      Kyle;
      I looked at your link, maybe the Reds team should fly that airline on the next trip west because the guy that got on that plane and who got off in Cincinnati are not the same guy.

  33. charlottencredsfan

    JV is sooooooo due for a HR.

  34. jdx19

    3 weak ground balls from Joey. Poor showing tonight. Still hard to believe he’s been a negative WAR player for a full month now.

  35. Steelerfan

    His pitch count is till reasonable, but should we be thinking about pulling Lorenzen here? Young pitcher, long season.

  36. charlottencredsfan

    Harper hits another HR. Unreal.

    • jdx19

      Whoaaa. I was watching it and switched the channel back right after he made contact. Thought he had a lazy fly ball. Homer, eh? Geez.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Wind is blowing straight out at Wrigley, he was PO’ed as he thought he hit an easy FB.

      • spro

        MLBNetwork just showed a side view, launch angle had to be 70 degrees!

      • jdx19

        Hah! GameDay Feed says it went 322ft. I didn’t think a ball could get out of Wrigley at 322ft.

      • jdx19

        Harper lined out to CF in his last AB… 111mph. Any loft at all and it would have gone 470ft. Baseball is crazy, eh?

  37. preacherj

    He just hit for himself…..which is testimony to this fine bench we have.

    • jdx19

      Skip and Boesch! No one does it better!

      • BigRedMike

        Borsch is clueless at the plate. The whole bench is woeful at hitting

    • Steelerfan

      And we replaced him the next inning? Fine with the pitching change, but letting him hit is just sad. I am sure the short bench is to blame.

    • jdx19

      Flashin’ the leather in the rain. I like it.

  38. tct

    Lorenzen looks like a pitcher who will spark a hundred FIP vs ERA debates, a la Alfredo Simon. He just doesn’t miss many bats and his walk rate isn’t great. But he has been getting results as far as keeping the other team from scoring.

    • jdx19

      SSS. If he walks a lot of guys all year he won’t have good ERA or FIP or anything.

      • tct

        The lack of strikeouts and average walk rate were there in AA last year over a fairly big sample, and he had a really low ERA there too.

      • Citizen54

        He’s got about 200 IP in the minors which isn’t a huge sample. Also to draw any meaningful conclusion you need to compare his ERA against the league average. Some leagues are pitching dominated.

        Ya its only been a handful of starts, but if he continues his trend of walking as many batters as he strikes out, don’t look for him to outperform his predictive stats too much longer.

  39. spro

    So by letting Lorenzen hit for himself and then yanking him, Price is saying that Lorenzen facing a righty is a better matchup than Skip or Boesch or Barnhardt facing a lefty. Got it.

    • BigRedMike

      Yes

      Price would likely state they are saving pinch hitters in a close game

  40. charlottencredsfan

    Hope that WP doesn’t cost us. The little things, and big things, have been killing us.

  41. preacherj

    Wild pitches and the eighth inning go together like hot dogs and mustard.

    • George Mirones

      Preacher;

      You have watched too many Reds games this year.

  42. pinson343

    Let’s hope Chapman is coming in to pitch the 9th with a save opportunity.

  43. jdx19

    Cy Kendrick pitching tomorrow for Colorado; ERA north of 6.

  44. preacherj

    I watch a lot of baseball, and the Rockies certainly have a lot of players I have never heard of. All Stars at GABP.

    • jdx19

      I actually kind of feel sorry for the Rockies in regards to Tulo. They probably trade him this year; he’s healthy and not hitting well at all. Much different than being an MVP for 65% of the year and hurt for 35% of the year.

      • charlottencredsfan

        Mets will probably acquire him and he will give them 5 straight seasons of All-Star quality play. What a talent but absolutely snake bit.

  45. Steelerfan

    I have trouble imaging us stringing 3, or even 2, hits together at this point. Maybe we just need to be swinging for the fence.

  46. preacherj

    Why does Pena always square to bunt ?!?! Even if he fools someone, he will never make it to first. sheesh.

    • pinson343

      Some hitters like to do that whenever they know they’re taking a pitch. Supposed to throw off the pitcher, or the umpire, or somebody.

      • preacherj

        The only one it throws off is him.

    • charlottencredsfan

      That needs to be ripped from the play book. Just giving up a strike. No one employs it like the Reds; where they get the idea that it’s effective, who knows.

  47. charlottencredsfan

    Bryant hits his own HR to tie it a 2, in the 8th.

    • jdx19

      Some fine young ballplayers in MLB today.

  48. charlottencredsfan

    Chapman is working painfully slow.

    • jdx19

      And looking painfully ineffective. Not sure if the Rockies have a single swing and miss.

  49. charlottencredsfan

    Tulo chasing, thank you!

  50. charlottencredsfan

    It is going to be a very heavy lift to win games.

  51. preacherj

    What would it be without another wild pitch?

    • Steelerfan

      Oh, of course. What was I thinking.

  52. jdx19

    Welp, not pretty… but it’ll work.

    • preacherj

      Wild pitch, silly. You are acting like you’ve never seen our bullpen pitch.

  53. charlottencredsfan

    Is Pena calling too many off speed pitches? 100+ mph should work most of the time.

  54. pinson343

    Chapman finally stops farting around. I think Pena told him, with Tulo batting, to just throw some high heat.

    • preacherj

      Yeah, that belt high 90 mph slider that didn’t break had to be the convincing pitch. I don’t ever want to see that again.

  55. Steelerfan

    Well, next couple innings are it because I do not see our pen holding the top of their order again.

  56. preacherj

    Now I’m for the bunt. Negron is hitting .121

  57. George Mirones

    Reds TV guys talking about how good Rockies pitching has been. I guess they know that talking about the hitting on the Reds team is pointless

  58. jdx19

    Bunt takes the chances of scoring a run from 44% to 42%.

      • jdx19

        Well, obviously the data is based on what happened from 1993 to 2010 in an average of all situations. http://tangotiger.net/re24.html

        So, modify as you see fit.

        Regardless of the result, I maintain it doesn’t help much, if at all.

      • farney_lives

        if negron hits to average he has a 12 percent chance of a hit but he is a good buntrr maybe 75 percent chance he advances the runner. It was a no brained and it worked. Case closed. Any other hitter with a normal average I’d agree with you.

  59. preacherj

    GRITTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  60. Steelerfan

    Is gamecast just screwed up? Chapman is not really batting.

  61. Aaron Bradley

    Well the good thing about rooting against the Reds is when they win its a pleasant surprise and I am still happy.

  62. msanmoore

    I think I heard angels singing … odd sound that I’ve not heard during this rainy drought.

  63. Jeff Morris

    This is something the Reds needed. Maybe this will get them on the right track, or at least playing better than they have??

  64. jessecuster44

    Reds win! Good game, good game.

  65. Tom Reed

    Schu comes thru and Lorenzen is the real deal. A real big win for the Reds tonight.