Final R H E
Colorado Rockies (18-25) 5 11 0
Cincinnati Reds (18-26)) 4 11 0
W: Betancourt (2-1) L: Chapman (2-3) S: Axford (7)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

The Good
–Marlon Byrd doubled and homered (his 10th) in four ABs. Todd Frazier hit a two-run homer in the first to give the Reds a lead that they held only briefly.

–Jay Bruce had three more hits, continuing his hot hitting. If you can believe it, Bruce’s numbers on the season are now exactly league average (according to wRC+). The guy is streaky.

–Jumbo Diaz struck out the side in a perfect seventh inning, which was followed up by Tony Cingrani’s perfect eighth.

The Bad
–But the ninth was not perfect. With the score 4-4, Aroldis Chapman entered the game and promptly walked the first Colorado hitter (Charlie Blackmon) on four pitches. DJ LaMahieu followed with a soft bloop single behind first base, then Nolan Arenado lifted a soft fly ball to center. Blackmon scored the go-ahead run.

–Jason Marquis gave up four runs, ten hits, and two walks in 5.2 innings. Of course, only two of those runs were earned, so maybe I should have put this in the “Good” section above. That’s almost inconceivably good for the Marquis.

Not-So-Random Thoughts

–Cincinnati is in the midst of their longest losing streak since 1998, when they lost eleven straight.

–I don’t know what you want me to say here. The last week and a half have been as bad as anything we saw back in the early-to-mid-2000s, and it’s really disheartening.

That’s all the crack analysis I can provide to you on this fine day. Forget the Reds for a little while. Go outside, take a walk, have a catch with your kids. Enjoy a nice dinner. Watch Stephen Curry rain threes later tonight.

Whatever you do, don’t spend a moment of your life worrying about whether Michael Lorenzen can keep the Reds from losing their tenth straight tomorrow evening.

75 Responses

  1. ohiojimw

    Actually Price robbed Marquis of a shot for a quality start by pulling him when he did. 🙂

    • Redsfan48

      Many baseball analysts have said in the past few years that the quality start needs re-defined. With Jason Marquis nearly getting one yesterday, I think they are right.

  2. Tom Reed

    Some exercise should help to clear the mind. I’ve experienced a number of seasons where the Reds were out of contention by Memorial Day except a lot of those years were when the Day was always on May 30th. and both leagues had eight teams each.

  3. Tom

    Sad that I am rooting against my team so that they can make some drastic changes. Need some OBP guys!!!

    • Hotto4Votto

      I’m in the same boat. But I honestly have no faith that this organization will sell even with the most minuscule chance of contending, so I’m hoping it gets so bad even Walt, Bob, and whoever else is up there re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic 2015 season will actually take notice.

    • Redsfan48

      I’m rooting against Marquis right now. The more runs he gives up, the sooner he can be sent the way of Kevin Gregg.

  4. Jake

    How many losses do we have to have for something to happen?

  5. David

    At least our #1 trade chip doesn’t have a sore elbow. Oh wait.

    • lwblogger2

      Oh wow, you went there. Way to kick a fan-base while it’s down 😉

  6. Bearcatville76

    I had a terrible thought watching this game today and maybe someone has said this already.

    The reason we are going to continue to see Marquis run out there every fifth day is because we’ll need him in the rotation when we deal Cueto and Leake. Would we be able to fill the rotation out without him?

    • Hotto4Votto

      We could easily finish with a rotation of Disco, Moscot, Axelrod, and Holmberg. Lorenzen and Iglesias pitch until their limits get hit splitting the 5th starters spot in the rotation. The rest should be able to pitch a full load. Sampson could conceivably come up later in the year for extra help. Adleman is another guy who’s pitched really well since he came to the Reds last year that could possibly come up and help. There won’t be a shortage of starting pitchers. Every single one of them are more likely to help the Reds in the future than Marquis will.

      • CommonSense

        Moscot gave up 8 runs today at Louisvile

      • Redsfan48

        One bad start. Marquis has had many such starts. And in any case, if we trade Cueto and Leake, that means we are out of it this year, so why not give the young guys a shot since they will hopefully be contributors for many years to come.

        Plus, there’s always pitchers out there on the waiver wire that the Reds can pick up. Who knows, maybe they can find the next Alfredo Simón. But they’d be hard-pressed to find someone out there that’s worse than Marquis, so maybe that’s worth a shot.

      • Philboyd Studge

        The reason Jason Marquis “de Sade” is pitched every fifth day is because the Reds’ management has decided fans are masochists who respond to being tortured by the Sadists running the team.

      • lwblogger2

        I could pitch and maybe the Reds could set a record for most runs allowed in one inning 🙂

      • lwblogger2

        I want to pitch behind the screen for the BP pitcher though. Do you think MLB would allow that? I’m not so great at getting out of the way these days and 100 MPH liners off my head are not my idea of a good time.

  7. Tom Gray

    Maybe Bryan Price can pitch. He sure can’t manage. He can’t be any more washed up than other options.

  8. Jeremy Conley

    I really had hopes that the Reds could at least keep this season interesting. The last week and a half has basically ended their season though. Their playoff odds are now .6%. They would have to go 67 and 51 the rest of the way (.567) to get to 85 wins, and that’s probably not enough to get in.

    If you thought you were going to contend for the World Series, and then you find yourself out of it before June, then you should probably reconsider how you evaluate your own talent.

    • ohiojimw

      As a fan consider the Blue Jackets this year. They had an early third about like the Reds then got really hot and played their way back to the edge of relevancy only to go off another cliff in January

      But even then they weren’t finished teasing. They played the quarter of the season at something like 15-1-3(OT losses) versus comers who were for the most part battling for play off spots but of course came up well short. That was a really bittersweet feeling to take into the summer

      • jdx19

        I think baseball and hockey are so fundamentally different that you can’t really compare the two.

        The sheer amount of games, especially ones without ace pitchers starting, makes it very, very hard to win consistently. If the Reds were to get back in the race, it would be because Joey, Jay, and Todd all play MVP-level baseball and Brandon, Zack, and Billy all play All-Star level baseball. It’s theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. Maybe something like 1 in 166? 😉

      • ohiojimw

        I was thinking more of the roller coaster of emotion for fans. CBJ were out of it early then almost back in as mid season approached then out again just as quickly but then ended up playing some of the best hockey of anyone all season over the entire last quarter of the season.

        Of course the ace in hockey is the goal tender; and typically a good one will play 65-70 of the 82 games which isn’t going to happen in Baseball. And it is no coincidence that CBJ’s two extended swoons corresponded to two periods when the #1 was out due to surgery,

      • lwblogger2

        Curtis played pretty well but you’re right, Bobrovsky was desperately missed. The Jacket’s play down the stretch surely made fans think about what could have been. That was a fun team to watch the last month of the season.

  9. wildwestlv

    What’s Wilson Valdez doing? Can’t he pitch, if needed? I remember him beating the Reds in the 19th, when he played for the Philly.

  10. jessecuster44

    This is exactly what happens when Chappy doesn’t pitch enough. Literally the stupidest organization in MLB.

    • desertred

      It’s like Seinfeld’s “Bizarro World.” Management (at all levels) seems intent on making everyone in the organization look as bad as they possibly can to ruin any hopes of a decent trade.

    • Robby20

      One has to hope it is lack of use that is the cause. He really has not been too good for awhile now.

  11. RedAlert

    Bryan Price has got to go – I don’t feel sorry for the Reds one bit – continue to run a batting practice pitcher out there to start the game – it’s ridiculous – ridiculous on so many levels it is beyond comprehension

  12. wildwestlv

    Expecting the worse news for Cueto’s elbow, although they probably won’t reveal anything until September.

    • ohiojimw

      Here is the latest from the Enquirer. The part about JC is at the bottom

      The results from all the tests won’t be known until Tuesday; but Price is hopeful JC will miss only one start (sound familiar?). One quote is worth many sentences from me:

      “We don’t think it’s a serious injury. We did all the stuff that we need to do just to verify that everything’s OK,” Price said. “We should have a pretty good idea by (Tuesday) afternoon of what all the tests suggest. I think right now, we’ve got a medical staff that feels very good that it’s nothing — I don’t want to say significant — but nothing that’s going to put him on the shelf for a long time. Hopefully he’ll miss one start and be back the next time.”

      • ohiojimw

        If JC would be out for the season, it would be a really messy situation for both the team and the player, wouldn’t it. Unable to trade him; and, in the end the team would have to make a qualifying offer (~$15m+) to get a comp choice but in the situation, JC might well take the QO which would likely put the team back into the same situation at the end of the 2016 season, depending how deep into 2016 JC was rehabbing or clearly less than 100%.

      • pinson343

        The one time a pitcher wasn’t gone for the year, the Reds thought he was. Sean Marshall was diagnosed by the Reds as having a “torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder” and out for the season, probably end of career. it turned out to be scar tissue.

        I’m happy for Sean that he can pitch again.

      • redsfan06

        Probably tendinitis. Out for a few weeks, unless they try to get him to pitch through it.

  13. pinson343

    Actually Chapman walked Blackmon on a 3-2 pitch (not 4 pitches), and, more importantly, he wasn’t warmed up. He was throwing his fastballs at 95-96 mph to Blackmon, and the Reds tv broadcasters thought there was something wrong with him. Later he was throwing 102 mph.

    He always throws harder as he goes along, but that’s a huge difference.

    Blackmon said: “He [Chapman] didn’t throw a single pitch hard in warmups, so I figured he had no idea where it was going, and sure enough he wasn’t right in the strike zone,” Blackmon said. “If I was going to swing, make sure it was in the zone.”
    But I don’t know how he would know that, because he would only see Chapman’s 8 final warmup pitches that he takes on the mound. (The Rockies had someone watching Chapman warm up ?)

    Either way, the result is the same:
    1. Chapman was not warmed up when he faced the first batter.
    2. Reds find another way to lose.

    • RedAlert

      And Bryan Price is still the captain of the Titanic – and Castellini and Jocketty are on the deck playing the violins

      • RedAlert

        Waiting and doing nothing – passing time while the ship continues to sink

    • Robby20

      Chapman has actually been fairly a shaky a number of times out this year.

  14. redmountain

    Where I live, I can listen to Cincy, StL., and Atl. This from Mike Shannon and John Rooney: Rooney: The Reds lost again, that makes 9. Shannon: That manager may be in trouble.

    They are probably right, but it has been correctly stated before that the manager gets blamed when the players are the ones whose jobs should be in danger. Aside from Gregg, the relievers were known for being pretty successful in the past. Three of the starters were successful and there was no reason to believe that would not be effective. There was promise in DeScalfini and with Iglesias and Lorenzen; reason for optimism.

    There was hope that Negron would continue to be useful, he has. LF is not the hole it was last year and everyone except Mesoraco is doing about what we could expect with some doing better than that.

    So it is injuries that are the most responsible for the problems, although the bench and bullpen have been a disappointment. Can this all be laid on Price. No. There are some guys who showed promise in the lower minors who have not progressed as hoped and this has hurt the Reds when the injuries have happened. Therefore, you cannot blame this on Price only and as I said before, you cannot fire all the players so the manager takes the fall. I don’t think that is fair, but life is not fair.

    • jessecuster44

      Stop blaming injuries. Just stop it. Good teams overcome injuries. Look at St Louis. I’m fed up with the injury excuse, because that’s exactly what it is: an excuse.

      • greenmtred

        Jesse: I agree that there is more going on than the injuries, but to say that injuries are just an excuse is to ignore reality. Most teams that suffer injuries to key players are adversely affected. You invoke St. Louis, and you are right, but they have an exceptional organization. The Reds should, too, right again, but it seems that a lot of their talent is not ready to step in yet. Any team losing a starting catcher who is also one of their best power hitters is going to feel it.

      • jessecuster44

        I’d argue that losing Meso hurts the team, but doesn’t send them on a 9 game death spiral. Everyone has injuries, but it’s how you deal with them that matters. Meso had a chance to be playing LF later this season but the org wanted him to “test” squatting last week, and promptly made the injury worse. Who didn’t see that coming?

        The Reds experience with injuries (2012, 2013, 2014…) should tell them the value of a strong bench. Aside from Pena, the bench is terrible. AGAIN. The Reds haven’t learned their lesson, and are now invoking the injury excuse.

        Excuses only satisfy the people making them.

      • greenmtred

        Jesse: Can’t find any fault with your answer.

    • User1022

      However, there is no question that Price has not used the pieces he has with maximum efficiency. That was one thing I thought Dusty was quite good at, despite his “old school” lineup construction. I still harken back to the time when Votto went down and even this site was singing the Doom And Gloom Tune (say that 3 times real fast), and Dusty promptly guided the Reds right back into the playoffs without their best player.

      Price, even with a fully healthy team, has no clue how to get the best out of them.

      • RedAlert

        And Jocketty hasn’t had a clue for more than 2 plus years now

      • RedAlert

        Bad combo on both fronts – yet Castellini sit and does
        nothing while Rome burns

      • ohiojimw

        A major difference I see between WJ in StL and with the Reds is that in StL he traded for big talent and was able to hold onto it. In Cincy his two big deals have been for Latos and Choo. They are gone and the likes of Alonso, Grandal, Gregorius, Stubbs, and Boxberger are also all gone, having been traded for those two.

        Yes, the departees haven’t exactly been world beaters but they represent a lot of talent to have spent on a one year rental and a guy they got 2.5 useful years from.

      • Tom Reed

        And Walt’s contract was up in 2014 and the owner extended him for two more years. So, there we are. I doubt the current front office is going to be able to negotiate the rebuild that the Reds need.

  15. Robby20

    Off subject but if the All Star game were to be held next week who would be the Reds only representative? Frazier? Or does Chapman make since he is a fan favorite?

    • tct

      Has to be Frazier. 6th in the NL in WAR. 2nd in homers. 11th in wRC+, 3rd in ISO. Either he or Matt Carpenter deserve to be the starting third baseman right now.

      • jdx19

        Agreed. If there is only 1 Red it’s gotta be Frazier.

        I expect Votto to go on another hot streak at some point soon. He can’t stay cold forever, can he?!? If he does that and some combination of Freeman/Rizzo/Goldschmidt go in a slump, Votto could eek out an appearance.

        Cueto is always possible if he isn’t injured, same with Chappy. We’re still over a month away from the game, so anything could happen.

  16. cfd3000

    Astounding to me that the Reds continue to waste one of the best arms in baseball, in some ways one of the best arms ever. I know it’s a dead and beaten horse but it’s borderline criminal that a) he was never groomed to start and b) he is never used outside the “closer rules” scenarios. The Reds need to get him on a run of ten or twelve scoreless outings then shop him for a couple of top young hitting prospects. Otherwise it’s just another wasted opportunity with Chapman. But sadly I’m resigned to that tune again…

  17. tct

    According to fangraphs, Billy Hamilton is leading the league in baserunning runs above average and defensive runs above average. So, they have him as being the most valuable base runner and defender in all of baseball so far. He’s already got 1.1 WAR, despite having a 56 wRC+.

    If he was a league average hitter, he’d be putting up 6 or 7 win seasons. Crazy.

    • lwblogger2

      If he was a poor hitter with an average walk rate he’d be an All Star candidate. If he was a league average hitter (.250) w/ a league average BB% (about 7.9%), he’d he an All Star.

      • jdx19

        And if he somehow miraculously was an above-average hitter (maybe 110 wRC+) he could be an MVP candidate.

      • lwblogger2

        My point was more if he was league average in OBP then he could even have a lousy slugging and he’d be an All Star. If he somehow could OPS+ at 110 or so, yeah MVP candidate.

  18. vared

    I think it’s fair to ask now: what happened to the Joey Votto of 2008 – 2011 or so? Was that level of performance just too much to ask someone to maintain? Is it still the effects of the injury? Comfortable with a fat contract (I don’t think so)? Just appears to me the new Votto is a streaky hitter like we’ve seen in prior years from Bruce: fantastic month followed by average at best month.

    • lwblogger2

      My worry with Votto right now is that not only is he in a slump but he doesn’t look good at the plate. He looks uncomfortable and as if he’s guessing more. He’s not exactly hitting the ball hard and he’s not really driving anything to the gaps. I really don’t think it’s the knee but whatever it is, it is troubling.

      • jdx19

        Agreed. There’s something mechanically going on, or his leg/knee is bothering him.

        Yesterday was a great sign, I think. His first two ABs were 104mph and 103mph line drives to left field. That’s a small sign that there is nothing wrong with his power. Given the right loft, both of those balls would have been easy homers. As it was, one was a line drive double off the middle of the wall and the other was a line drive right at the left fielder for an out.

  19. ragekage83

    Does anyone know if its possible to trade players for front office personnel?

    And is there much info out there on some younger FO types who are savvy in advanced metrics and would be up for the challenge of overhauling the Reds?

    Not that I think it’d happen, but it would be nice to know who Mr. C could target.

    • Tom Gray

      Yes. Clipped from 2012:

      After a months-long wait, the Cubs and Red Sox have finalized the compensation for Theo Epstein. The Red Sox sent 19-year-old prospect Jair Bogaerts to the Cubs to complete the deal,’s Carrie Muskat reports.

      The Cubs sent relievers Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz to Boston as compensation for Epstein earlier in the offseason.

      • jdx19

        Wow! I had no idea that happened. Nice recollection, Tom!