In an announcement that surprises no one, the Reds have tweeted that Homer Bailey will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

This follows the announcement last week that Bailey was suffering from a sprained elbow ligament. Recovery time is between 10-14 months. The right-handed pitcher was sidelined last August with a strain in his flexor mass muscle near the ligament. He underwent surgery in early September and had spent the last seven months in an intense rehab program. After that, Bailey made two starts for the Reds.

The success rate for TJS is high. Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmerman, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and David Wells are pitchers who have returned to elite performance and successful careers after the procedure.

Until Bailey returns, the Reds will have to go with the arms they have. Michael Lorenzen was called up to take Bailey’s place in the rotation and was successful in his debut Wednesday.

Best wishes to Homer Bailey for a successful surgery and a speedy recovery.

108 Responses

  1. docmike

    Not surprised at all. Once I heard them say a sprained elbow ligament, I figured it would end up here. At least this explains where his velocity was in those two starts.

    Hope for a successful surgery and we’ll see you next year Homer!

  2. eric nyc

    Well I wish I could say this was surprising….

    You really have to wonder what this does to the Reds’ future plans. Several shoulder injuries and now TJ surgery, plus Homer will be turning 30 by the time he’s even thinking about throwing live again. You have to think this effects whatever they were planning on doing with Cueto.Otherwise are we seriously looking at Mike Leake as our Opening Day starter in 2016?

    • Steve Mancuso

      You’re right that this has to affect the Reds plans, for 2015 and beyond. I still can’t see them spending $200 million on a contract for Johnny Cueto (and I hope they don’t). But they have the money if they want to do it.

      There’s a long way to go before Opening Day 2016. Who knows how well DeSclafani, Lorenzen, Iglesias etc. will do this year. And while I tremble at the thought of Walt Jocketty shopping in the free agent market, there are plenty of pitchers/contracts out there between the extremes of Cueto and Jason Marquis.

      • WVRedlegs

        Will Travis Wood be a free agent this winter?

      • docmike

        I don’t want to spend any $$ on Travis Wood. He’s a servicable back of the rotation starter, but he pitches most of his best games against the Reds. that won’t do him any good if he’s on the team.

      • Redgoggles

        Maybe Mat Latos will want to come back to Cincy. You know, to help with the leadership void.

      • Eric nyc

        This team is clearly not an offer site juggernaut and doesn’t have a ton of help coming down the pipeline. Without a true front line starter (or two even) I don’t see this team competing for anything but 3rd place in the division. There was at least some hope Homer could round back into that role, but I honestly wonder if he might basically be done after this. So if you consider him a sunk cost don’t you either pony up for Cueto or totally blow up the roster and play for 2018?

      • Anthony

        Homer has had many issues with arm and shoulder. Johnny cueto makes sense. Or would you rather see him with the cardinals or cubs? He’s a shut down pitcher. If you had traded chapman, who would be effective in the bullpen?

  3. Vanessa Galagnara

    Disco will be our opening day starter. Disco – Lorenzen – Moscot – Cueto trade replacement – Leakes trade replacement

  4. WVRedlegs

    Very sad, but not unexpected news. He’s out until at least May or June of next year, would be a decent estimate. That has got to play into the Cueto issue now. The Reds shouldn’t go into 2016 with DeSclafani as their most experienced MLB pitcher, not counting Marquis or a similar-type pitcher.
    You never know, some pitchers come back throwing harder. Maybe Bailey can push 97-98 on the radar gun during the remaining years of his deal.

    • IndyRedMan

      You know they always said that when they were hyping Bailey from the minors but he usually sat around 93-94. He’s a decent pitcher but overrated and overpaid due to the 2 no hitters

  5. DHud

    I feel like any remaining hopes of being contenders this year have to be all but gone now. A wise strategy may be to abandon ship on this season, put Meso on DL, get as much as you can on the trade block for Cueto, Leake, and Chapman, throw the young arms into the flames, and hope we’re that much better for it come next season.

    • greenmtred

      I understand your reasoning, but will suggest that if the young arms can’t compensate for the loss of Bailey, we can’t assume that they would next year. I’m clearly in the minority here, but I’m not sold on the idea of getting rid of Cueto, Leake and Chapman. They’re good, better than good in the cases of Cueto and Chapman, and all three of them might stay good past the traditional prime because of style (Cueto and Leake) and minimal wear and tear (Chapman). Cueto is thought of as a power pitcher, but he mostly throws lower velocity stuff, relying on location, movement and smarts with a few 95mph heaters to keep everyone honest. Leake is much the same, minus the 95mph. Chapman we all know about and, while we lament his (in our opinions) under use, we should remember that that is still subject to change (different manager, repentant Price), and that we might not get the haul for him that many of us assume, since other teams may be leery of overpaying for a closer or, if they entertained thoughts of making him a starter, a project.

      • Dayton Ducks

        GREENMTRED, I agree on keeping Leake and Chapman, I just don’t know that it’s possible to keep Cueto. Also–am I right in assuming you’re a Vermonter? I grew up there on the Canadian border, and I just figured that my brother and I were the only Reds fans in VT. If you are, glad to hear it!

      • greenmtred

        Yep, a Vermonter. Got another Reds fan here in my small town, too. Did you grow up in the Kingdom (God’s country) or northwest (not bad, either?)

      • Vicferrari

        You are not in the minority at least wait until the ASB, for some reason there some people that think we can actual get something for them. Unless they can get 3 -5 better prospects than what is in their current top 10 it would be foolish to do it other than save the cash. I never understood the logic in rooting for this as I rarely ever see a firesale netting much…plus cannot the Reds sign Chapman relatively cheap next year?

    • RedAlert

      Dude , you giving up after 22 games ???!!! – sorry , I can’t come close to agreeing with this – crap man , come on 22 games into a 162 game season , really !!????

  6. ProspectCincy

    Sadly, Donald Lutz had Tommy John surgery today as well.

    Not a good day for the Reds. 🙁

    • jdx19

      Pretty odd for an OF/1B to have TJ, eh? Poor Donny.

      That might cement him as an organizational player. Seems unlikely with this news that he’ll ever break out and be a MLB factor.

    • Morgan Mayham

      At least they can 60 day dl him? Hopefully for dejesus jr. To be called up ?

    • Michael J Hampton

      Really sad for Lutz. This was the year he needed to finally get a chance to play some at AAA and see what kind of numbers he could put up with regular playing time. He should have been playing there the last two years instead of rotting on the Red’s bench. If you ever need a blue print on how not to develop a prospect just see how the Red’s mishandled Lutz.

  7. WVRedlegs

    Better to get it attended to now, ASAP, than to try the Platelet Rich Plasma therapy. They could try the PRP for months and still not get anywhere, and then have to go through the TJ surgery anyway.

    • ohiojimw

      I agree. Of course there are things we never know about but on the surface it only makes sense to do the proven Tx now and know that barring complications, Bailey could be pitching competitively by ASB 2016. If the PRP failed, leading to later TJS, likely all of 2016 would end up going down the tubes.

  8. Redgoggles

    I’m curious if there is any insurance $$’s available for injured players who miss basically the entire year. Like Marshall last year (and this year), and now Bailey this year. Do the Reds get any payroll relief on those contracts when the players get injured?

    • gaffer

      I heard those type of insurance got so expensive that very few people get them. Also, they often have a 1 year “deductable” so often they only help if a guy has 2-3 years left. Marshal has actually pitched a few games so that would be off the table.

      • Jay King

        Anyone hear anything about Marshall rehabbing or anything for that matter.

      • Vicferrari

        I heard he was brushing his teeth with his left hand but has not received the OK to floss

    • jdx19

      If Lorenzen is a 1.5 WAR pitcher the rest of the way, Marquis is a 0.5-1.0 WAR pitcher the rest of the way, Barnhart/Pena provide replacement-level hitting with average defense, Votto wins the MVP while putting up a 7.0 WAR season, Byrd rebounds to hit 20 homers, Bruce hits 30 homers, BP and Cozart play GG defense, Billy steals 100 bags, AND the Cardinals underperform, then YES, I think the team can contend! 🙂

      • DHud

        That many if’s makes me sad… It doesn’t look like Byrd will be nearly the offensive player we hoped. Bruce may hit 30 but he’s just as likely to K 200 times, and there’s no help in sight for that bullpen. Sigh….

      • Jay King

        In last 2 days Byrd walked 2 TIMES!!!! is he not feeling well… Its going to have to be a magical season for this team to make the playoffs and I just don’t see that happening unless Mesoroco somehow comes back without surgery then we have a chance.. Bullpen has to be exploded though.

      • Anthony

        Look at the marquise career numbers then ask yourself that question.

      • jdx19

        Never said I thought he’d get it. It’s a big, long if-statement.

  9. gaffer

    Called it last week. No one belived!1!!1

    • Jeremy Conley

      Um, I think everyone called has called if for a while. Hence the announcement that surprised no one.

      • gaffer

        agree, but at the time several people said he was doing platelet therapy

        I do think this suggests that last year he may have actually needed TJ when they did the flexor mass surgery.

      • docmike

        I’m with Jeremy on this. I’m pretty sure that as soon as the phrase “elbow injury” gets tossed out there, Tommy John is the first thought on everyone’s mind. I know it was for me.

        I don’t believe he needed TJ last year, though. An injury to the flexor tendon is not the same thing as a torn UC ligament. I do wonder if he may have injured the UCL while doing his rehab from last year’s surgery, though.

      • Gaffer

        The flexor mass attaches to the same place on the bone as the UCL. On MRI they are very hard to tell apart. No one will know, but reminds me of Votto being under treated on his knee.

      • jessecuster44

        Reds’ Med Staff. Just sayin’.

  10. WVRedlegs

    Quick, get an edit to the printers on the RLN t-shirts. On the “We have Homer for that” shirts should now have a big X over “have” with “had” written in.

  11. davisremy10

    RIP Reds Playoff Hopes (April 6, 2015- May 1, 2015)

    But really when we decided to go into the season with no left fielder, no bench, or a 5th starter

    • davisremy10

      Hopefully we go full tank mode after the all-star break and get a great pick in next years draft. In order to get better, you have to suck. Look at what being awful the last several years have done for the Cubs and their farm system!

      • jdx19

        Being awful plus having a thoughtful front office.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Not that I put it all on the FO, but they have to take some blame for this, also. Homer should have been allowed to walk; that’s a definite in my mind. With Votto, you can’t predict injuries. If he stays healthy, he’s a bargain. Unlike Bailey. 2012 and 2013, he had 200+ inning seasons, and he still had an ERA of almost 4. Others are just small items in my book, but there are a bunch of small items. I would have gone shorter with Votto. I would have gone cheaper with BP. I would have gone longer with Cueto (yes, I said it before back then, I thought 4 years was too short).

        The biggest thing for me is the things we don’t see. Like the medical staff. Some say how good Kremchek is; I would take James Andrews every day of the week and twice on Sundays for both arms, both legs, and my core.

        Where is the instruction and development of the minor leaguers. We had one of the top systems in the league when players like Frazier, Devin, and others were down there. But, as soon as all of those were called up or traded away, we haven’t seen much of anything come up through the system. I’m starting to wonder if we have some coaches and instructors down there just because they are former Reds, not considering if they can actually develop talent more than 1 per every decade.

        That’s why I miss guys like Krivsky (sp?) and O’brien. I believe those guys understood how to develop a team, an organization. It starts with the minor leaguers. They scouted, bringing in a lot of talent. They developed it. Then, they were gone before they could see the fruits of their labor.

    • jdx19

      Not that we could have won a bidding war for Choo, but I’m certainly glad Walt didn’t try!

      • Gaffer

        Probably not good idea to sign guys to 6 years, oh wait. . . .

      • jdx19

        DOesn’t matter if it is a good idea or not. SOMEONE in the market will, so you have to as well. It’s reality. Optimally for a team, every single guy would be on a 1-year deal. That is impossible.

  12. docmike

    We’re all wondering when he’ll be back. A good comparable will be Jose Fernandez of the Marlins. Bailey is scheduled to have his surgery next Friday, May 8, similar to Fernandez who had his on May 16 of last year.

    Fernandez is apparently pitching to live batters right now, with an optimistic return of mid-June but possibly not until after the All-Star break. Based on this, the best case scenario for Homer would be returning by the first of June.

      • jdx19

        No one said he was… the post is about injury recovery timeline…

  13. jessecuster44

    Never seen a team with so much “bad luck” re: injuries as the 2012-2015 Reds. Here’s hoping that Homer has successful surgery and a speedy recovery.

    Here’s hoping also that the Reds training staff has learned something about diagnosing injuries early, appropriate conditioning, not letting a player dictate his own health, and preventative medicine.

    I’m sick of seeing Reds players getting hurt. Wondering when ownership will become sick of it as well.

    • Jeremy Conley

      I think baseball fans are sick of seeing baseball players hurt in general. It really takes the fun out of the game when you can’t see the best play the best, and which teams make the playoffs just feels like luck of the draw with injuries. Baseball needs to take the injury epidemic seriously.

    • ohiojimw

      It must be the Ohio air. The Blue Jackets are claiming something in the range of 550 man games lost in the just ended 2014-15 NHL (82 game) season.

      I guess that is why I am somewhat not undone by what’s happened with the Reds so far. CBJ ended their season with a 15-1-1 run but out of the playoffs with most but not even all their guys back. That’s something to feel bummed about. Unfortunately or maybe fortunately, Reds were only fringe contenders any way.

    • greenmtred

      Last year for the Reds was historic as far as injuries go, but do you follow the other teams closely enough to know that the Reds, in general, have more of them? I’m not a doctor, but I suspect that a torn tendon is often something that happens without a lot of warning, other than the general warning that mlb players–pitchers in particular–are prone to this injury. Your comments about the Reds’ medical staff seem to imply that you have some sort of inside knowledge. Do you?

      • jessecuster44

        Nope. I hear that the Reds medical staff is very well regarded, but the club has had many injuries, and several key re-injuries.

        Votto, Bruce, Broxton, Cueto, Latos and now Bailey have suffered more serious injuries after coming back from a previous one.

        Maybe it is “bad luck.” Subjectively, I don’t believe it. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. The Reds organization is a mess, and maybe some of it has spilled over to the trainers. I see better than I hear, and given the multitude of injuries, I see that an audit of the Reds’ entire medical program would be a good idea.

  14. David

    Well, as they say, it is what it is. Best of luck and wishing a speedy recovery/rehab for Homer. For the Reds, well, let’s just say I have said a LOT of prayers lately.

  15. Tom Diesman

    Huh! Next thing you know they’ll announce Mesoraco is going to have hip surgery and be out until next year as well. 🙂

    • DHud

      That would be smart at this point. If they decide now they aren’t contenders it’d be better to do surgery so he can come back healthier next season. From my understanding of the injury, rest isn’t going to solve the issue but just mitigate it

    • ohiojimw

      I think they’ll ride it out with Meso through this upcoming interleague run and try to use him as a DH. I don’t believe the timing is as important in his case in regards for having him ready ASAP in 2016.

      Also in truth, having him DH could be showcasing for the trade market as there are mixed opinions as to whether even with successful surgery it makes sense for him to return to catching. With Votto signed long term, that leaves LF or traded to the DH league as Meso’s options if he can’t catch.

  16. Jeremy Conley

    Things to do: Designate Gregg, bring back Iglesias. DL Mesoraco, start playing him in left in AAA. Platoon Boesch with Byrd for a week, see how he looks.

  17. jdx19

    Disco Inferno given a 5% chance to win NL ROY by ZiPS!

    Kris Bryant (45) and Joc Pederson (30) are 75% combined.

    Cueto at 9% for Cy Young.

    Votto not even on the list for MVP. Hard to believe for the only Top 10 offensive guy whose BABIP is actually below is career average. Oh, and leading the majors in WPA, too.

  18. IndyRedMan

    Has Mesoraco ever played the outfield at any level? You guys crack me up that say just throw him out there. You have to move your hip out there too

    • ohiojimw

      The medical opinions seem to be with some certainty that once recovered, a person can play just about anywhere (physically) but catcher. No one is saying definitively he could not return to catching but experts point out as WJ so aptly said earlier this week that it is the squatting that hurts and quite possibly a return as catcher would be short lived before the issue returned.

      Meso would need work to play LF; but, there is no reason he couldn’t adapt and play LF as good as a lot of other sluggers that have been played there to get them into the line up. Old time case in point, rather late in his career none other than Yogi Berra played some LF to spare his legs, keep his bat in the line up, and open a spot for the younger Elston Howard who at that point was a superior receiver to Berra.

      • jessecuster44

        Well said. My mom heckled Yogi when he played LF vs the White Sox at old Comiskey.

    • Jeremy Conley

      Who said just throw him out there? Jocketty has said that he can hit and run. He has said that it only hurts when he squats. What is the harm in putting him on the DL and seeing if he can play LF in AAA for a week? What do you lose? If you’re willing to have him hit and run in the big leagues, I don’t understand what is cracking you up?

    • Carl Sayre

      Teams have been hiding poor defensive players with a good stick in LF for at least the 50 years i have been following MLB. My question is why should Mez be any different he is a good athlete he could at least match what we have defensivley now.

    • RedInInd

      PDoc wrote an Enquirer article last July 10 about Devin. In part:

      ‘Mesoraco is good at it (catching) partly because he has never done anything else. He was a catcher at age 10. He tried basketball, he played a little football. He pitched some, even played shortstop. Those were the typical forays of the best player in the 7th-grade class.

      ‘It didn’t take Mesoraco long to realize his limitations, and his calling. “I wasn’t super
      fast,” he says. “I wasn’t crazy athletic.” But as a catcher, well, he was both. Context is everything.’

  19. Steve Schoenbaechler

    Not surprised at all. Hope he comes back better than he was. I would have to take Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmerman, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and David Wells over Homer any day of the week, before or after their surgeries.

    So, here we are going to pay Homer $28 million to essentially sit (salary this season and next season), extending him when he was on the DL in the first place. That is money well-used. If I was Castelini (sp?), I would be livid. Simply a stupid contract to begin with, only looking more stupid with each day. And, now, rather than just missing this season, he may very well miss next season, also. Bailey very possibly won’t be pitching for us again until he’s 30 years old. Who’s been talking about those who decline after they reach 30 or something?

    • I-71_Exile

      I need a Derby horse for tomorrow. Would you kindly look into your crystal ball and tell me who’s going to win?

      Every contract is a gamble. This one hasn’t worked out so well (yet).

      • I-71_Exile

        Got it. 🙂 I was leaning Dortmund, but now I know.

      • jdx19

        Pfft! Everyone who isn’t an idiot knows Mr. Z can’t lose! Garsh!

    • Steve Mancuso

      The Reds didn’t extend Homer when he was on the DL. They extended Homer after he had pitched 200+ innings for two years in a row. Please quit repeating that factual error. Homer is going to pitch next year, so his ’16 salary shouldn’t be part of your “essentially sit” category. But sure, when players go on the DL, their salaries aren’t helping. Homer Bailey is nowhere near the most expensive player to sit out for a season. The word “stupid” expresses an opinion, not fact. Again, if you think the owner should be mad that Homer is hurt because the team should have foreseen that, well, then you’re against all contract extensions.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        First, correct, yes, I see that Bailey was extended before he went on the DL. That still doesn’t make it a good contract; it was still a stupid contract, that much money for a pitcher who had a history of injuries (well proven) and a history of options and little success (well proven, as in no AS, no CY votes, no 20 win seasons much less 15 win seasons, career ERA over 4). Second, you are sure he’s going to pitch next season? You know that? Then, please tell me who’s going to win the Derby tomorrow. As for me, I will believe it when I see him on the mound next season, if we do see him. Just remember, how much did we see Masset the last couple of seasons? How much have we seen Marshall the last couple of seasons? How long did it take Votto to apparently get healthy from a 2011 knee injury? And, the same medical staff is going to work on Homer.

        We get it, Steve M. You like Homer. You’ve shown your case. Others don’t; we’ve shown are case. We get it, Steve M. You don’t like our case. And, we don’t like your case. Just because you don’t like our case, that doesn’t mean it’s incorrect, simply because we use “and” instead of “or”.

      • jessecuster44

        In hindsight, it was a bad contract. It still could work out for the Reds.

        It is interesting that of players who have signed big contracts – Votto, Mez, Bailey… ALL have been injured soon after the deal.

        And yes, the same med staff is going to work on Homer. That is very frightening.

      • jdx19

        You haven’t shown any case. You just keep spouting garbage about Cy votes or how many 20-win seasons people have. That is irrelevant.

        From 2011-2013, Homer was one of the Top 25 pitchers in the NL, making him solidly a decent #2 starter on most teams. He got paid like a solid #2 starter. Nothing to see here.

      • jessecuster44

        Do the Reds ever insure players with big contracts for situations like this?

  20. Scot Lykins

    Why are comments being deleted on this site. Is this for only those who agree with the writer?

    • Scot Lykins

      Sorry !!!!!!

      This was the wrong story. Please delete previous post.

    • jdx19

      Things get deleted when you are in breach of the site’s posting guidelines. If you had a post get deleted, then you probably said something against the guidelines. Pretty simple.

    • Steve Mancuso

      I have three methodological questions about that study.

      (1) It doesn’t compare TJS pitchers to a control group of non-TJS pitchers. A certain number of healthy pitchers wash out every year. The baseline used in the study assumes every pitcher continues to pitch from one year to the next. Logan Ondrusek might beg to differ.

      (2) It doesn’t sub-divide the pitchers for how good they are prior to the surgery. Just an anecdotal look at the names of the pitchers in the list who made it back vs. the ones who didn’t, is a little bit of proof that the good pitchers make it back and the borderline pitchers don’t.

      (3) It doesn’t indicate how many pitchers get the surgery each decade. In early years, maybe only a few pitchers – the good ones who had a chance to make it back – were given the surgery at all. Today, everyone and their brother gets it. It wouldn’t be surprising that the average return rate was better back when the surgery was more selective.

      I’d be interested to learn if there were any examples of pitchers who were Bailey’s age and quality who didn’t make it back from their first TJS recently. Any at all.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        But, yet, you only picked the successful pitchers who came back from TJS. What about Kerry Wood, Scott Williamson, Pat Hentgen, BJ Ryan, Darren Dreifort, Kris Benson, Phil Humber, Jaret Wright, Mike Hampton, Bill Pulsipher, all who either didn’t get better or got worse after surgery.

      • Jason Linden

        You have a valid point about the baseline, but given that only about 65% of pitchers in Bailey’s group returned to make even 35 appearances (a season of starting, roughly), it’s hard not to think that returns aren’t as certain as people act like they are. Unless, of course, you think 35% of major league pitchers are washing out every year. I rather don’t.

        Indeed, he specifically gives a separate set of numbers that excludes pitchers who never return to the majors (about 20% of those who have TJ surgery) and among that group, the median number of innings pitched for the rest of the pitcher’s career was 167 and the median number of appearances was 102. Obviously, that includes relievers, so you can bump those some, but the point remains. The return is not a sure thing. As Steve Schoenbaechler points out, there are plenty of examples.

    • Anthony

      Its bailey’s mechanics. He will never be a long-term pitcher.

      • jdx19

        You convinced me! He certainly has a very unorthodox, herky-jerky delivery. He makes Dontrelle Willis looks like Greg Maddux!

  21. Steve Schoenbaechler

    So, let’s see. We are down 3 starting pitchers from last season and our starting catcher. And, our pen is still bad. Boy, I don’t see how we can even be close to competing this season. I can understand holding till the AS game. But, if not close come that time, I expect a fire sale. The thing is, I don’t know who we would let go of and who would stay. I mean, who would take on Votto and his contract, BP and his contract and age. Do we let go of Leake? Do we let go of Cozart, here as soon as he starts hitting again? Do we let go of Frazier? I could understand letting go of Cueto, but what could we get for him? And, if we let go of Cueto and Leake, that makes DeSclafani our #1 pitcher for at least through this season if not starting next season.

    Boy, without 1-2 more bats “and” 1-2 more pitchers, I don’t see this team finishing any better than last years team.

  22. GreatRedLegsFan

    It looks like ages ago when no pitcher missed a start back in 2012 with Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo & Leake. Now, all of the sudden, only one spot is secured with DeSclafani for 2016.

    • jessecuster44

      Times change. Windows slam shut. That’s why you need to go for it when you can. The Reds had their chance, but they didn’t go for it. Shame on them.

      • GreatRedLegsFan

        That’s right, and it’s very frustrating indeed. Definetly, Reds needs to replace WJ.

      • jdx19

        I think it is certainly more likely than it was, but I just hope we go into rebuild mode after the ASG.

      • jdx19

        Cueto and Chapman go for as many prospects that are 1-2 years away as we can get. Everyone else stays.

  23. Tom Reed

    Injuries happen to all teams and I’m not sure the Reds lead in that category, although they’ve had more than their share in recent years. It’s a tough break for Homer Bailey, but he’ll be fine down the road. Having seen many seasons come and go, I’m not so down on this year’s version of the Reds, although it’s not particularly a well put together team when it comes to left field, the bench and the bullpen. But it’s still baseball and the pleasure of seeing the Reds and other teams on and following this blog is tough to beat.

  24. Jay King

    Ouch….. It hurts that they are paying him so much this season…. I wish there was finances for the reds to try to trade for someone or something. It also means we have to rush a little some of prospects.

    I know I’m not a big fan of Bailey but I never like hearing about someone having to have surgery and missing a year of time in the majors. Good luck to you Bailey

  25. User1022

    Homer Bailey’s contract was paid based on projection, not production. This is the way many long term contracts work, and I kind of get it. You sign a player who shows the potential to “break out” to a lower price, then over the seasons, he makes you look smart for locking him up cheaply before he really started producing.

    Homer Bailey almost always had a lower xFIP than ERA, and people figured it was only a matter of time until the numbers caught up, and indeed over the last few years the numbers were finally showing signs of converging.

    In essence, Homer was (is?) the anti-Johnny Cueto, a guy whose ERA is always much much lower than his xFIP. This has been consistently reproduced season after season.

    My point? Maybe sometimes, it’s better to bet on production instead of projection. We can wait around for Homers whole career for his ERA to “catch up” to his xFIP, meanwhile, Johnny Cueto is in the Cy Young conversation season after season. Yet, Homer Bailey is the one we decided to lock up long term, even though they are of similar age (3 months difference).

    No one could have predicted these injuries to Homer (even though he DID have a reputation for being somewhat fragile before he signed his contract), but even so, at the time I felt, and still feel, the Reds locked up the wrong pitcher to a long term contract.

    • Anthony

      So you’re telling me, that walt looked at cueto and bailey and said we project that homer is better? Look at the stats of bailey and leake. Over the career of both, leake is better and more efficient. So why not sign leake instead of bailey? Leake has been injury free. Walt is a terrible evaluator of talent. Period.

      • jdx19

        What stats show Leake was better from 2011-2013? That is the only relevant window to consider since we’re talking Homer’s contract.

        Walt may not be a great at evaluation talent, but your statements are pretty unfounded.

        Seriously, I”ll donate $20 to RLN if you can come up with a reasonable statistical argument for saying Leake should have been signed over Bailey after 2013.

  26. Anthony

    Never should have signed homer to begin with. Cueto makes sense. Its amazing how the many commenters want to win, but dont want to make a smart investment. Most of you think you can win without spending money. That can only happen with deep, and I mean deep, farm systems. Trade bruce for prospects, bring up waldrop, THEN SIGN CUETO. Cueto is the best pitcher we’ve had here since Tom Seaver.

    Also stop it with these stupid ideas about signing less talented pitchers. Travis wood for example. None and i mean none of the reds young pitchers will be successful. They’re talent level is always overated. If there was any good talent, we wouldnt have marquise or gregg. The reds and local meadia have been preaching this for years. All we got out of all the pitchers we drafted, CUETO.

    • jdx19

      How much do you think we should/can sign Cueto for? Give us a number.

      • User1022

        No, the Reds SHOULDN’T sign Cueto. He’s entering his age 30 season. He is going to want in the neighborhood of 200 million over 5 or 6 years. The chances of him actually earning that money are stacked heavily against him due to expected decline/injury likelyhood.

        What I was arguing above was that perhaps the Reds should have tried to tack on 2 or 3 more years to Cueto’s contract before he pitched himself out of the market, but no more.

        Most people forget, however, that for a long timer Cueto had a reputation of being even more fragile than Homer Bailey. He started 2011 on the disabled list and only pitched 156 innings that year. 2012 was the “Back Game” against San Fran. 2013 was a disaster with him making only 11 starts. The Reds could have negotiated a few more years with him during that time pretty cheaply, but it’s easy to see why they didn’t. Then of course, last year happened and suddenly everyone remembered who Johnny Cueto was. And now he’s too expensive and too old for a small market club like the Reds.

        I love Johnny Cueto. I’d love if he could stick around for 2 or 3 more years. But realistically, the best move is for the Reds to trade him to a contender and get a nice haul in return.