Daniel Corcino filled in brilliantly in his first career MLB start, after Reds scheduled starter Mat Latos was scratched because of a bone bruise. Corcino allowed just two hits in six innings, but it wasn’t enough. The Brewers got a walk-off win off Jumbo Diaz, a big win for a struggling team still fighting for a playoff spot. The Reds three game winning streak came to an end.

Final R H E
 Cincinnati Reds (70-78) 2 6 1
 Milwaukee Brewers (77-71) 3 5 0
W: Rodriguez (5-5) L: Diaz (0-1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Photos | Game Thread

game graph MIL

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Jonathan Lucroy’s leadoff double in the 9th inning off Jumbo Diaz. That play increased the Brewers chances of winning by 17.4% (from 63.3% to 80.7%)

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

  • +10.7%: 7th inning – Phillips walked. Runners on 1st & 2nd, 0 outs.
  • +10.3%: 1st inning – Negron’s solo HR. Reds lead 1-0.
  • +9.2%: 9th inning – Phillips walked to leadoff the inning.
  • +9.1%: 8th inning – Negron doubled. Runner on 2nd, 1 out.
  • -16.8%: 9th inning – Overbay’s game winning single. Brewers win 3-2.
  • -14.4%: 9th inning – Hannahan struck out to end the inning. Reds strand runners on 2nd & 3rd.
  • -12.5%: 4th inning – Braun’s RBI single off Corcino. Brewers lead 2-1.
  • -11.0%: 7th inning – Braun doubled off Ondrusek to lead off the inning.
  • -8.8%: 7th inning – Mesoraco struck out to end the inning. Reds stranded runners on 1st & 3rd.
  • -8.3%: 4th inning – Gomez reaches 2nd base on a dropped 3rd strike and error by Pena. Runner on 2nd base, 0 outs.

Player of the Game

Jonathan Lucroy: 2 for 3, 2B, 1 RBI, 1 Run, 1 BB, 0.27 WPA

Positives

Daniel Corcino gave the Reds a tremendous effort tonight in first career MLB start. Corcino’s fastball was touching 92 MPH, and he mixed in a good slider. Corcino was the Reds #4 prospect according to Baseball America after he posted a 3.01 ERA in 26 starts in AA in 2012. However, Corcino was dropped to the Reds #13 prospect according to Baseball America after he posted a 5.86 ERA in 23 starts (28 appearances) at AAA in 2013. Tonight, if maybe just for a night, Corcino showed us once again that promise he gave back in 2012. His line on the night: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 2.29 FIP.

Kris Negron hit a solo homer in the first inning to give the Reds a 1-0 lead. It was Negron’s 5th HR of the season. He also legged out a “hustle double” in the 8th inning. Negron has looked really good since being called up in July. I think he has done more than enough to show that he should be on the 2015 opening day roster. Negron is a terrific defender, who can play every position except catcher (including SS). There is no way players like Skip Schumaker, Ramon Santiago, or Jack Hannahan should be on the roster over Negron.

Todd Frazier stole his 20th base of the season in the first inning. Frazier became just the third Reds 3B to join the 20-20 club (20 HR, 20 SB), joining Aaron Boone (26 HR, 32 SB in 2002) and Chris Sabo (25 HR, 25 SB in 1990). It is amazing that Frazier has stole 20 bases this season, considering he entered 2014 with 10 SB in 319 games.

Logan Ondrusek gave up a leadoff double to Ryan Braun in the 7th inning, but then proceeded to strike out the side.

Pedro Villarreal pitched a perfect 8th inning. Villarreal has done a good job in a few limited relief appearances this season for the Reds: 10.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 8 K, 3.60 ERA, 3.02 FIP.

Brandon Phillips walked twice tonight. It was the first time Phillips had walked twice in a game since opening day.

Negatives

Jumbo Diaz really struggled tonight. Diaz allowed a leadoff double in the 9th, and then had to intentionally load the bases to try to get out of it. He couldn’t, and the Reds lost. Diaz has been shaky of late. In his last six appearances, he has allowed 4 ER, 9 H, 5 BB, and just 3 K’s in 5.0 IP.

Bryan Price continues to be obsessed with the bunt. He called for Heisey to bunt twice tonight with runners on second base. After Heisey failed to put down a successful bunt on the first two pitches in the 7th inning, Heisey just missed a three run homer. That is why you shouldn’t bunt the runner over. 3 runs > 1 run.

Not so random thoughts……..

Mat Latos was scratched from his scheduled start tonight because of bone bruise on his right elbow. Our own Steve Mancuso wrote a bit about Latos injury earlier today on RN.

The Reds have 14 games left. They would have to go 11-3 to finish the season 81-81.

Jack Hannahan was none too pleased about being called out on strikes, in the 9th inning, on a 3-2 count, with runners on 2nd and 3rd. Jack had a point too, it should have been ball four.

jack

 

 

26 Responses

  1. ohiojimw

    It is not going to change anything; and, I suppose the official scorer followed the rules, however it does not seem right to me that both runs scored off of Corcino go into the books as earned.

    I get it that because Gomez reached on a wild pitch, Gomez counted as an earned run because the second wild pitch would have scored him from 3B, However it seems to me that for other runners the “out” part of “strike out” should stand; and the second run should thus be unearned. Oh well essentially minutia on the heels of a tough loss.

    • pinson343

      I don’t know how on earth Corcino was charged with a wild pitch on Gomez’ K. The ball was in Pena’s glove and he dropped it. Also a decent throw still gets Gomex at first. So it should have been scored a K and a passed ball or else a K and a 2 base error.

      • ohiojimw

        I agree, this too. That pitch which I presume was a riding 4 seamer was exploding late like that all night. On the Gomez K it looked like it took off just as it reached Peña. Either that or he was crossed up some way or another.

        Creeper Welch showed his age just a bit. He said Peña should have just drilled Gomez in the middle of the back with the throw; and, if they didn’t get the out call for him being out of the running lane, at least he would have been down and not headed for 2nd. Like Creeper I some times miss the days of it being more important whether you win or less and less so how you play the game.

    • Nick Kirby

      I actually thought the same thing when I saw he was charged with 2 ER. I don’t think that is fair at all. However, I don’t think that should take anything away from how well he pitched. He gave the Reds are really nice effort.

  2. preacherj

    I hope Negron invests in a first baseman’s mitt in the offseason. None of those backups you listed in the recap own one besides Injured Jack.

    I thought the ninth inning lineups summed up things well:

    Brewers: Armiris, LuCroy, Braun
    Reds: Pena, Cozart, Hannahan

    • Nick Kirby

      Negron has played 1B in the minors (he only played 1 complete game thought). I think the Reds should look for a better hitting (maybe not a good defender) 3B/1B backup, and then have Negron, Pena, and Heisey in 2015 as the bench. Then of course go and get a legitimate LF.

      • Vicferrari

        Pretty bad when a very average AAA batter is considered as upgrade to our 1b situation

  3. Dale Pearl

    The conspiracy theories will be flying high if the Brewers land in the World Series the final year of Bud Selig being the commissioner of baseball. A hollywood script in the works?
    In fairness to everyone the Brewers have been playing good all year and I for one would much rather see the Brewers make a run at the playoffs instead of the Cardinals.

    • Vicferrari

      Me too, just rot against the Cards no matter what

  4. sezwhom

    There is no way players like Skip Schumaker, Ramon Santiago, or Jack Hannahan should be on the roster over Negron.

    Yes but in fairness to Schumaker, he played hurt most of the year. I’d still like to see Skip and Kris on the team. Hannahan won’t be back. Santiago wasn’t bad when called upon.
    Price is obsessed with the bunt. For the luv of gawd, spare me. Sick of it.

    • Thegaffer

      Santiago has been fine. The problem is not the bench as much as the bench guys playing as starters. These guys should be getting 120 plate appearances a year, not 300.

    • Nick Kirby

      Skip Schumaker is a very bad player, hurt or not. He still had a -1.3 WAR last season. I can’t believe he now has an excuse for his terrible season.

      • ToddAlmighty

        I can believe it. Doesn’t make it less terrible, but that’s pretty much Walt Excuses 101. Just like how “Oh, Jack was bad last year because he was hurt.” and now they’re doing the exact same thing with Skip a year later.

        Makes Walt look like a slightly less awful GM for signing these guys to multi-year contracts.

  5. sultanofswaff

    Hannahan made an ass of himself. Had he been paying attention to umpire’s calls, he would’ve understood that the batter would not be getting the benefit of the doubt on borderline pitches. Yet there he was staring at strike 3.

    That said, the ball and strike calling was as bad as I’ve seen it all year, but it did work in Corcino’s favor quite a bit.

    • Mutaman

      I vote for the Cueto game in NYC with Angel Hernandez. But the guy last night provided stiff competition.

  6. sultanofswaff

    Based on the numbers and quotes from the players themselves, we have a culture of rushing players back from injury or playing them when they are hurt. Bruce (no rehab assignment), Votto (playing on one leg), Phillips (stunk for 2 weeks after returning), Schumaker (never right since the concussion), Latos (aware of his symptoms a while ago yet still kept pitching).

    WHERE ARE THE ADULTS?

    In every one of these instances, it was the player who dictated whether he was able to play or not. If you read the quotes from Price, he defers to the player’s judgement every single time. If you read the quotes from the players, they admit their contributions were limited to ‘getting back on the field’. No mention of them feeling they could be effective at the same time.

    • Michael J Hampton

      The old culture was you played hurt and kept your mouth shut or you were looked down on and might even lose your job. The attitude was there’s a half a dozen guys out there just waiting to take your job. And in the old days before free agency with only a few teams (what was it 12 teams?) most teams kept their minor leagues well stocked. Really good players could stay blocked in the minors their whole careers and only moved to the majors when somebody on the parent club lost their job. So you played hurt and hoped for the best. Old habits die hard and there is still a lot of that attitude out there, just read Daughtery’s article on Votto that was referenced on this site a few weeks a ago.

      • tct

        You are right,Michael. But the people in charge of the organization need to be the ones to change that culture. Skip should be gone if he played hurt for the last 4 months without telling anyone. They need to make it clear that there is no room for players that hide injuries and hurt the team because of it. The team needs to know exactly how healthy you are and make decisions accordingly.

      • George Mirones

        Culture change resistance is based on fear as outlined by Hampton in his post includes the media (TV). During the game and in the post game on FSO the talking heads were endorsing and praising players for returning to play because the team needs them. Unless strict medical protocols are contractually instituted and a third party (outside of club affiliation) is used then this moronic behavior will continue. Votto tried last year and this year to play (for the team) and it wasn’t till that nationally televised weekend game this season, when Votto continually fell down during at bats, did management officially take notice and make a statement.
        By the way this all starts when players are kids and the coaches and parents use the approach of “toughing it out”. In the past I have posted the comparison that the owners were forced into arbitration and to deal with agents yet when it comes to health issues they let the player make decisions. The same players who can’t negotiate a contract without 3rd party advice is supposed to be wise enough to make medical decisions. The players union should get out of the owners pocket and institute a medical clause in the contract.

    • lwblogger2

      Good points from everyone on this thread. I’ll add that there is also a very clear distinction between playing while hurting and playing injured. I’ll also add that sometimes a starting player at 80% is better than the backup and in those cases then perhaps, as long as there isn’t substantial risk of making the injury worse, then sometimes a player should try to play through it. Guys are always dealing with something during the course of the long season.

      In general I agree with most the comments though. The Reds seem to have more of their share of players coming back too soon or playing while injured. In a lot of cases playing well below what their replacement may be doing and also with risk of further injury. The medical staff and management need to put their foot down and say “No, you aren’t playing.” It stinks for players to hear sometimes but sometimes it needs to be said.

  7. Eric the Red

    There is nothing to admire in Schumaker’s conduct. It’s not even like he played a position of huge need where we had absolutely no good options, like 1B. He played hurt, taking away opportunities from healthy players, then had surgery so late in the season that he’ll probably start off poorly next year. (Oh, and he’s not that great to begin with.)

    He wasn’t tough or gritty, he was irresponsible. Presumably, the team kept playing him–he had a key AB in a one run game the day before his surgery–because they were hoping he’d fight through his terrible slump and get back to at least being the player he was last year. The whole time Schumaker knew he wasn’t slumping, he was injured. Personally, I’m disgusted.

    • lwblogger2

      I find it very hard to believe that the trainers didn’t know Schumaker was hurt. That’s part of what is bugging me about the whole thing.

  8. MattWI

    Billy almost had the ball Lucroy hit in the 9th. In real time, I thought he did have it and it was an error. On replay, it was a tough run. Bruce, on the other hand, got completely bailed out by Ondrusek after misjudging Braun’s ball. Braun! Don’t let that guy have luck like that!

  9. redmountain

    Any manager or GM can only go off of what they are told by the medical staff and the player himself. It sort of goes against the belief that players do not care. They want to play as soon as they are medically cleared. And some players will try to hide their injuries(Cingrani)-do you expect the manager to be able to tell when someone is hurt?

    • lwblogger2

      That’s my biggest complaint against the Reds medical and training staff. They have to be able to tell that these players are hurting. Of course I’m sure in some cases they have their suspicions but the player won’t admit it.