Seeing the Brewers record in the standings, I can’t help think of my favorite lyric from my favorite song:

“I’ve this creeping suspicion that things here are not as they seem…”

Maybe I’m wrong, but there is no way the Brewers are the best team in the NL Central.  Also, I don’t believe the Reds are a team that will continue to play sub .500 ball.  I feel the law of averages will eventually play out and the Reds will climb over .500 while the Brew Crew will inch closer to the mark.  I could not think of a better time for that to happen than tonight!

So discuss the game here, Reds fans… And hopefully we’ll be singing another favorite lyric of mine tonight… “Celebrate we will…”

Lineup:
1. Billy Hamilton – 8
2. Joey Votto – 3
3. Brandon Phillips – 4
4. Jay Bruce – 9
5. Todd Frazier – 5
6. Ryan Ludwick – 7
7. Zack Cozart – 6
8. Tucker Barnhart – 2
9. Homer Bailey – 1

A simple Reds fan from a simple town. I have been a Reds fan all my life. The 1990 team was crowned Champions during my prime youth years and I grew up idolizing Chris Sabo all the way down to the flat top hair style and the #17. I have passed that love of the Reds down to my three boys who love the game and the Reds just as much as I do! Follow me on twitter @CoachWilson17

Join the conversation! 286 Comments

  1. Not sure why he throws a first pitch fastball to a guy you know for a fact is going to swing at it… poor call or poor execution. Frustrating.

  2. Okay, only a tie. Reds can still put this game in the win column. Like to see MVP smack a big fly this inning.

    • I would like to see a lot of seeing eye singles and let Todd smack them in again, but it a bullpen which in my imagination the Reds seem to rarely score against

  3. I would like to see Homer go out for the 8th, hopefully can push a few more

  4. Dude’s yet to meet a lead he likes.

  5. Extra innings would really hurt the Brewers bullpen

    • Would hurt the Reds bullpen more, I imagine. Do you really want Ondrusek/Christiani/Parra/not 100% Marshall out there?

  6. Lead off single. Can he cross the dish?

  7. OK, JV walked……

  8. Hit and a walk. What will BP do?

  9. Votto needs a double or better here. If he’s on 1st, then it’ll soon end up being 2 outs anyway.

    • Dang, lagged a little on my post there. Do you ask BP to bunt or maybe to just take 3 strikes here? Concede an out for an opportunity to get Bruce and Frazier to the plate?

  10. I’d take anything other than a DP: bunt, K, pop-up, etc…….

  11. Is it gonna be goat’s Day? BP and Homer come thru late?

  12. Usually I don’t like the bunt there, but given the history…..

  13. 3 hitter sacrificing, interesting

  14. Why does Phillips bat 3rd again?

  15. Walking Bruce to get to the guy that put the Reds on top earlier. Cool.

  16. Reds haven’t had a grand slam this year (except maybe at IHOP).

  17. Bah! C’mon Luds.

  18. Man oh man. Here’s hoping Ludwick can pick Todd up off the floor.

  19. I’m a huge Price fan, but you can’t take the bat out of the hands of our third and fourth hitters like that.

    • Don’t blame him, BP is DP machine.

      Didn’t matter anyway.

      Reds are all about the HR, no homers no runs.

  20. Too bad Billy got hurt he could have tagged up on Frazier’s short fly to right

  21. Really need Ludwick to come through…

    BP batting 3rd basically means teams will walk the Reds’ 2 best hitters in high leverage situations. Yuck.

    • if you are willing to sac with your 3rd hitter in that situation, you need a new 3rd hitter

  22. Aaaand that’s what happens when you give up a free out after your first two men reach base… with the #3 hitter no less. Shameful. Just overtly shameful.

  23. And that folks is why you don’t have a turd batting third that you have to sac bunt with in fear of a double play.

  24. Story of the season. Brewers get the big 2 out hit when they need it. Reds strike out.

    • Also, luck. As in, Lucroy’s grounder down the line staying fair and Ludwick’s going foul.

      Baseball is 80% luck. Always has been. (All numbers guaranteed made up or your money back)

  25. Looks like another 1 run game. We know how good the Reds have been in those.
    Brutal.

  26. Bailey coming back out? Ehhh… feeling a crooked inning coming up here.

  27. The reds just had their 3 hitter give up an out which then took the bat out of their clean up hitters hands. Just poor decision making by the manager

  28. I have no problem with bunting BP there. I can’t believe I typed that sentence.

    • Let me fix that for you: “I have no problem with benching BP there.”

    • I have no problem bunting BP… if BP was batting 7th like he should be. I DO have a problem with the #3 hitter bunting. If you want to both give up a free out AND take the bat out of your #4 hitter’s hands, then they shouldn’t be your #3 hitter to begin with.

      BP needed to be moved down in the lineup for quite awhile now. That’s two innings that Price’s refusal to do so has cost the Reds in this game. This is the reason I can’t believe that batting Cozart 2nd and batting Cozart 8th only results in a 5 run difference over the span of a year. This game alone with a competent #3 hitter could easily be a 3 run difference.

      • Arbitrarily making decisions based on who is hitting #3 is pointless. Price’s decision has to be based on relevant information at the time BP is hitting.

        I agree that BP needs to be moved down, but let’s not lie to ourself and say it’ll make a huge difference.

        • Both Heisey and Votto have been on base together twice this game with less than 2 outs. Not lying to myself when I say if Frazier hit third, they’d have likely scored more runs than they have so far. BP grounds into a double play two strand two, the next inning Bruce gets on first and then Frazier homers.

          BP recently had a lower OPS than Billy Hamilton. He also regularly leads the team in GIDP. That’s the relevant information Price should base his decision on. No business hitting third. Never has.

        • Of course it would.

        • The arbitrary decision I referred to was you implying Price shouldn’t bunt BP because he is the #3 hitter, because #3 hitters don’t sac bunt.

          I agree that BP needs to be moved down, no argument there. Price is giving him a lot of rope and he’s choking the Reds with it…

          That said, I don’t think Price is doing anything a lot of managers wouldn’t do. Aging stars are given a lot of rope.

    • Even Dusty never bunted with his 3-hole guy. Geez! Get ahold of yourself, man!

  29. solid outing, lets get Homer a meaningless stat for his work, just 2 bad stretches of 3 straight hits turms a gem into just a solid. Segura played big parts in both stretches

    • An amazing diving catch by Hamilton in the first inning to turn a double into an out also turns a potential disaster into a solid start.

      Just how it works.

  30. Bailey pitching very good overall tonight. Still same problems with the Reds….cannot get the big hit when they need it with men on base. Sac Fly would be nice there, but was hoping Ludwick could get a hit in there. Still early in the season, but here is wishing Reds solve the problems of hitting with men on base.

  31. Cozart is hitting the ball pretty well at the moment.

  32. Do not look now, Cozart hitting near .300 over his last 9 or so games

  33. This bunt thing…didn’t the Reds try this a bunch a lot last year…and didn’t it NOT work most of the time?

  34. I LOVE our catchers!!!!!

  35. 2 for 2 on sacrifices, nice execution for a change

  36. Pena can hit a little.

  37. Yeah. Reds couldn’t score with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. Let’s blame the guy who put them in that position. Makes sense.

  38. Pena! Man these reds catchers must have their own hitting coach.

  39. I think Pena mean en Fuego in Spanish

  40. Here’s your game recap title guys: The Year of the Catcher

    So joyous! Go Pena!

  41. If we blow this game, I’m going to need a mental health day off tomorrow.

  42. Does Ondrusek pitch for the brewers?

  43. As I said earlier, we need to find a way to get all three of the catchers batting in the same game. Move Frazier to SS, put Mesoraco at 2nd and Barnhart at 3rd. Hah

  44. Thankfully Price doesn’t have that paranoia about using your other catcher as a pinch hitter.

  45. Loving it.

  46. That’s a good way to get an RBI.

  47. Brewers gonna Brew!

  48. I did call an implosion of the Brewer’s bullpen earlier. I insist it’s not a one time occurence. Burn, baby, burn.

  49. Who had Cozart on twice in the same inning?

  50. We have a shot at our pinch hitter batting twice this inning. Back to back catchers twice.

  51. Great to see the Reds put an 8 spot on the board tonight.

    • The thing I’m really encouraged about is that it wasn’t just by the long ball. They scored a variety of ways and ran the bases smartly.

  52. Breathing easier.

  53. Well, let’s hope the bullpen can’t blow this lead. Finger’s crossed.

  54. Would not waste Big Brox here but not a huge deal, I guess.

    • No… I agree. What’s he doing out there, unless it’s just a “gettin’ work” issue. Can’t remember what he’s done lately.

    • I’d use him. He was ready. He won’t be in this situation much longer. He’s getting stronger. We want to make a statement. Slam the door.

      You said “Brox” and “huge” in the same post. Heh.

  55. How about Cozart, rough calculation I have any at .297 with a .350 obp in last 11 games, maybe he is a 2 hole hitter after all

  56. BP with a GIDP and a K in big situations. Votto’s BB’s don’t look so bad now do they? 🙂 I kid. A little. Great inning. Way to get back to old time in beating the Brewer ‘pen.

  57. Brox hitting 95. That is good to see.

  58. Was away earlier, didn’t get to post my obligatory: I loathe Carlos Gomez comment. Done and done. Good job Reds. Let’s get ’em all.

  59. Great win.

    Very nice start by Homer and the boys battled tonight.

    Go Reds!!!!

    • Solid start, Ace material if he can deliver starts like that, no homers for Homer few walks, needed an innings eater and he delivered for the most part

      • That was not an “ace” start but a very solid “good” start. To see an “ace” start, go have a look at any of Cueto’s. This is where the unrealistic expectations for Homer start.

  60. Mark Reynolds makes Brandon Phillips looks like Joey Votto.

  61. Broxton threw more warm-up pitches than what he threw in the 9th, thank Brew crew he should be fresh for the weekend

  62. Hopefully this is the start to another 6-22 month of May for the Brewers

  63. We ain’t afraid of no Brewers.

  64. Echoing what I posted earlier, if you are willing to sac your 3 hole hitter in the 7th, you need a new one… time to make a change

  65. W-L is the greatest stat ever… Cueto with 47 IP, 1.15 ERA: 2-2… Bailey with 34.1 IP, 5.50 ERA: 2-2.

    • Maybe xFIP really has value? Na, just kidding.

    • I do not care what any body says, show me a pitcher with over 15 wins and less than 10 losses over multiple seasons who is not very good…
      wins indicate something

      • No. They really don’t. Ask Cueto.

        • Can we get back to this in October?

          Records since 2010:
          Cueto 12-7, 9-5, 19-9, 5-2
          Bailey: 4-3, 9-7, 13-10, 11-12

          Those seem about right as far as their individual abilities.

      • I agree. I like the advanced stats and they are helpful but when Homer has an xFIP of ~ 3.10 and question a tick below 3.00, there is a problem there. To me Advanced Stats are what accounting is to making money,- they count it but they have nothing to do with making it.

        • question = Cueto. Don’t know where I got that. Apologize for any confusion.

        • The only problem with your analogy is that xFIP has been shown by research (like real studies with data etc.) to be a better predictor of future ERA than past ERA. Homer’s low xFIP comes from all the strikeouts, few walks and normalizing home runs. ERA is a purely backward looking stat – how many runs did the pitcher give up. But if you want to know how the guy is pitching to predict how he’ll pitch in the future, the non-run-based numbers (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are most accurate. I have issues with xFIP for certain pitchers because over time I think they do give up more home runs than average based on their fly ball rate. Mike Leake, for me, was in that category for a few years. But that’s only in comparison to FIP, not ERA.

        • I guess, but I have a real problem when xFIP has Cueto and Bailey where they are at in relation to each other. If I was a conspiracy junkie, I would suspect xFIP was developed by Homer’s agent. At least with this example, I bet I can predict with decent accuracy that Homer will be at 3.25 to 3.50 and Johnny 2.35 to 2.70, actual ERAs. Advanced stats are the accounting in the money making process.

        • ERA is the old guy at your office who swears based on anecdotes that he knows best, even though the data doesn’t support it. FIP/xFIP/SIERA are the sharp new employees armed with studies showing concretely what works to make your business more profitable in the future. 🙂

        • Yep but I’m the old fart those young upstarts work for. So there’s that. Maybe their smarter but I’d like to think I’m wiser or I would be working for them.

      • They mostly indicate that pitcher played for a good team that could hit the ball.

        • I guess but when I look at ERAs of 2013 pitchers their records corresponded pretty well with their ERAs with the top producers. Regardless of the team:
          Fernandez 12-6, 2.19, Miami
          Harvey 9-5, 2.27, Mets
          Iwakuma 14-6, 2.66, Mariners
          Bumgarner 13-9, 2.77, Giants
          Lee 14-8, 2.87, Phillies

          There are a couple of exceptions: Sale & T., Wood but on the whole it’s pretty consistent: if you have a low ERA, you have a winning record.

          My pitching stats are ERA and WHIP. All others have relevancy but in general those two tell me the story.

        • Charlotte, we are drawing lines again – why does it seem we are always on the same side – unless as stated earlier great minds think an awful lot alike

        • We do. The Saber guys bring a lot but I find sometimes the number crunching has warped their instincts and practical sense. Woods from the trees kind of thing. Again, the example today is Cueto and Homer. I’ll take Cueto with the Reds lineup, Steve can have Homer with the same and I will beat him 8 of 10 times. Cueto is just a far superior pitcher.

          Another example is your guy, Trout, versus JV. JV is very good player but he is not in the same class as Trout. I would take Mike Trout over any other player in MLB and it is for a variety of reasons. Votto may have him on OBP but without looking, I would guess that Trout has him on every other “major” stat. This doesn’t even include general base running (sans steals) and fielding. I don’t need to read statistics to know this, I watch both play.

        • Uhhh…I got news for you. Trout is widely considered as having two of the greatest seasons of all time by sabers. In fact, sabers were pushing for him to win the MVP over Cabrera, despite Cabrera winning the Triple Crown.

        • See and I didn’t even have to look that up. Sabermetrics may reinforce my opinions, they will not form them. Back to the Cueto/Bailey example.

        • Maybe, but people like you, people that rely on the baseball card stats, are the reason Trout didn’t win the MVP despite putting up one of the greatest seasons in MLB history.

        • As far as MVP, there really should be two awards: Best Player and Most Valuable Player. I can’t form a reasoned argument for Cabrera not getting the MVP because he was on a playoff team and Trout was on…..well the Angels. As I said, Trout is my first pick in the ultimate baseball draft. I don’t have a close second.

          Unfortunately, JV is dropping rapidly – certainly out of the top 10. No base running speed and a crappy fielder. On top of it, he takes a complete snooze every now and then. Still love him but those are my thoughts.

  66. Got to get Brandon out of the 3 hole – he is getting no respect at the plate right now-

    • And Jay Bruce, how about him – .206 BA zero HR 4 RBI last 10 games. That will win you a lot of games – especially coming out of your 4 hole hitter.

  67. Leave Cozart right where he is – he is fine – already experienced him near the top if the order – don’t need to go there again

  68. Brandon Phillips’ night: A meaningless single with two outs and the bases empty. A groundout. An inning ending GIDP with Heisey at third. A sacrifice bunt from the 3 hole because Price has such confidence in his bat. And a strike out with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out. Let’s stop the move Billy to the 9th slot, and focus on getting Phillips out of the 3rd spot in the order. Please.

    • Not a big fan of Dat Dude but a single is never meaningless. The Brewers had a two out single that led to two runs.

      • Agree.

      • I understand your point, but you’re missing the forest for the trees. First of all that single was meaningless since it did not lead to runs in the first (unless you want to get into a butterfly effect about more pitches, turning the lineup over, etc.) Second, ignore the situations if you like and just assess his stratomatic line – single, groundout, GIDP, bunt out, strikeout. Not a good night for any major league hitter, let alone one who hits third in the lineup.

    • I still like Billy in the 9th, but agree Phillips has to move down

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About Chris Wilson

A simple Reds fan from a simple town. I have been a Reds fan all my life. The 1990 team was crowned Champions during my prime youth years and I grew up idolizing Chris Sabo all the way down to the flat top hair style and the #17. I have passed that love of the Reds down to my three boys who love the game and the Reds just as much as I do! Follow me on twitter @CoachWilson17

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