Report: Bailey/Reds agree to $105 million deal

Mark Sheldon is reporting that Homer Bailey and the Reds have agreed to a $105 million contract. No details or confirmation yet released.

Sheldon is reporting the deal is “definite” but Walt Jocketty not ready to confirm.

Holding off on the analysis of the deal until it is finalized and confirmed.


  1. Shchi Cossack says:

    Sheldon (and everyone else on the planet) is reporting a done deal, but Sheldon did quote WJ

    The Reds have not announced the agreement. “Not yet,” general manager Walt Jocketty said when asked if the deal was done. “Hopefully by [Thursday] morning.”

    I have to assume that means the deal is done with the physical is still pending.

    1. preach says:

      @Shchi Cossack: It could also mean that Jocketty wouldn’t admit to being on fire if there was smoke coming out of his shorts.

  2. Shchi Cossack says:

    The $25MM mutual option for 2020 surprised the boots off the Old Cossack. I’m sure that was the delay in reaching a final agreement.

    1. @Shchi Cossack: The $5 million buy out is the more likely relevant part of that. Given the extreme unlikelihood that the Reds would pick up a $25 million option when Homer is 33 (but who knows by then) what the $5 million buy out means is that the contract is really for $110 million and $100 million after 2014 which is a $20 million/year AAV.

      1. Shchi Cossack says:

        @Steve Mancuso: Unless the Old Cossack has inbibbed too much of the good stuff (entirely possible), Bailey’s contract will be $10MM for 2014 then a $90MM extension covering 2015-2019 ($18MM AAV on the extension) plus a $5MM buyout on the $25MM option in 2020. That makes the extension a $19MM AAV with the buyout factored in, not to quibble over a $1MM here or a $1MM there… 😉

        1. @Shchi Cossack: Right, what’s $5 million among friends. 🙂

          You might be right. I was going on $105 as the main contract, plus the $5 million buy out in the seventh year. That’s how I got to $20m/year. But we’re substantially in agreement and we’ll both get to find out when they officially announce it.

  3. al says:

    So, basically, if you assume Bailey would have gotten about $10mil this year, he’s getting $95mil over 5 years, plus either a $5mil buyout or a $25mil option.

    That works out to $100mil over 5 years, or $120mil over 6 years, and so after this year, Bailey is officially a $20mil/year pitcher.


  4. Kyle Farmer says:

    If Sheldon is saying it then I’m buying it. I probably need to say publicly that I’ve been 100% wrong about this for more than a year. I didn’t think there was any possible way that Homer would resign with the Reds. In fact, I said more than once that he’d take less money from another club in order to leave town. What a bonehead! I’m thrilled that they got the deal done, and I’d offer the exact same deal to Latos right now to see if he’d take it.

    One little wrinkle…..I wonder how Homer and Devin will get along. It seemed that Homer was not a fan of Mesoraco at all over the past couple of years. If I remember correctly, Corky caught Homer when Hanny was hurt. I hope they can get on the same page.

    1. homerandbruce says:

      @Kyle Farmer: I don’t think you were that far off the mark. The way I read it, if the Reds had not hired Bryan Price as manager, Homer would have been long gone after this season.

  5. reaganspad says:

    OK fine. Bailey is signed. atta boy Walt!

    1. reaganspad says:

      @reaganspad: What about Bruce, Latos and Cueto?

      Come on Walt, don’t get lazy. Keep after it!!!

  6. Analysis of the deal published in the next post.

  7. Drew Mac says:

    IF these are the basic numbers of the deal, I am puzzled. Emotionally, I want to say this is a great deal. However, I can’t bring myself to think that this will ultimately prove to be the case. First off, had the Reds agreed to Homer’s arbitration proposal (or lost the hearing), they would have owed him $11.6 for 2014. So, by subtracting that sum from the $105 million and adding another $5 million (for the seventh year buyout), the contract is worth $98.4 million over the last five years, at an astounding 19.68 AAV, which is about how much Felix Hernandez is making per year in his recent extension by the M’s.

    Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but this seems like an absolutely amazing level of risk to assume moving forward. I can think of about four or five things that could be done with this money to mitigate risk. Here are some of the questions I have at this point (provided these numbers are right).

    Could Bruce have been extended further out (knowing that position players are simply less prone to career ending injuries and the other maladies that oftentimes leave pitchers ineffective) with some of this money (and that the macro-level trend seems to be that hitting is harder to come by and pitching easier to come by)?
    Could Walt have locked up Tony C. with just a little bit (relatively speaking) of this money in a Matt Moore type deal?
    What about Cueto? There is nothing wrong with Cueto’s arm. Perhaps $30 million (or even less) would have bought another couple of years of Cueto.
    Is there still money for Latos?

    Maybe all of these things will be taken care of in addition to the Bailey extension. If so, then this new TV deal coming down the road must be very lucrative and more power to the Reds brass. In fact, if this is the case, count me among those approving of the deal.

    Finally, given the AAV of this deal and how it compares to similar pitchers (Steve has rightly convinced me that Bailey is not, in fact, on par as a player with Greinke-even though his AAV is now only $1.5 million less than Greike’s), why not let Bailey go to market with the other teams competing for his services on the hook for a pick if they signed him. The draft pick compensation would have been a bit of leverage that the Reds apparently didn’t have in these recent negotiations. Also, if Homer does get a better deal than what the Reds have agreed to, why not just take the pick and use the money for these other things.

    Honestly, I am a bit befuddled at this point. However, if this is the market and the Reds can afford these kinds of things, then (again) more power to them and I am fully on board. I just don’t want the Reds to turn into an aging overpaid team a la the Phillies.

    1. @Drew Mac: Much of this is addressed in the next thread.

    2. Drew Mac says:

      @Drew Mac: I will repost this to the analysis thread.

  8. TC says:

    I was very happy with a $16.6M average per year. $19M is still probably okay, but I’ll have to live with it a day or so.

    1. TC says:

      @TC: That’s Joey Votto money, kids.

    2. Shchi Cossack says:

      @TC: Well at least Joey Votto money two years ago. Salaries in MLB have simply grown exponentially over the past 2 seasons.

      See Cano, Robinson: $24MM AAV on a 10 year contract for a 31 year old 2B.

      See Kershaw, Clayton: $28MM AAV on a 7 year contract with an opt out in 2018 for a pitcher.

      1. ToddAlmighty says:

        @Shchi Cossack: Kershaw is a whole different beast. 5 straight years of sub-3.00 ERA, coming off a sub-2.00 ERA season, 2 time Cy Young, all before he turned 26.

        Can’t talk about him in the same conversation as normal players.

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