Caveats: That’s why you play the games. Injuries. Bryan Price. More moves to come (maybe). Billy Hamilton=Superman. Differing models may differ. Remember some other time when the projections were wrong. Bryan Price. Trade for Stanton. Double rainbows. Who’s FanGraphs anyhow? Everyone hates the Reds. Sustainability!
Pointless Request: Don’t shoot the messenger.
The folks at FanGraphs have calculated projections for the 2014 regular season and chances for making and winning in the post-season. If you’re a fan of the Cincinnati Reds, it isn’t pretty. Method: they use an average of three projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS and FanGraphs own) and run 10,000 simulations.
They project the Reds to finish 77-85 in 2014, good for fourth place in the NL Central (ahead of the Cubs, who-hoo). Or maybe 78-84, depending on whose projection.
Chance of winning the division: 4.5%.
Chance of earning a wild card slot: 7.5%.
Look, I think this is unduly pessimistic. I bought season tickets, and the Homer Bailey No-Hitter ticket package. I desperately don’t want to write about or watch a 77-win team in person. But this is out there. FanGraphs isn’t run by Tony LaRussa or Dusty Baker. It’s an average of three projection systems, run 10,000 times. That’s roughly 9,999 times more than you or I have run it.
Read it and weep. Have a nice day.
P.S. Jason Linden (and he’s a smart guy when it comes to this stuff) tells me to calm down (doing my best). He says they are way undervaluing the Reds pitchers. He sent me this link to WAR projections from ZiPS that show the Reds will win 90 games. I’m sure he’ll comment here to get us off the ledge. Jason, please?
Steve grew up in Cincinnati as a die-hard fan of Sparky’s Big Red Machine. After 25 years living outside of Ohio, mostly in Ann Arbor, he returned to the Queen City in 2004. He has resumed a first-person love affair with the Cincinnati Reds and is a season ticket holder at Great American Ball Park. The only place to find Steve’s thoughts of more than 140 characters is Redleg Nation. Follow his tweets @spmancuso.