W: M. Minor (9-4)
L: H. Bailey (5-8)
S: C. Kimbrel (26)
Final: Braves 5, #Reds 2. LP-Bailey 5-8. Reds blow a 2-0 lead, lose to Braves who played w/out all 3 of starting outfielders. 2-4 on trip
— John Fay (@johnfayman) July 13, 2013
Final: Braves 5, #Reds 2. LP-Bailey 5-8. Reds blow a 2-0 lead, lose to Braves who played w/out all 3 of starting outfielders. 2-4 on trip
— John Fay (@johnfayman) July 13, 2013
A terrible showing tonight, Redlegs. Just awful. Milton is disappointed.
Blame Chad for creating this mess.
Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.
Why do I feel like the Reds are going nowhere fast?
There just isn’t a positive vibe about this team right now.
Time for Walt to call the White Sox and get Alex Rios. He is a great clubhouse guy and an excellent leader (from everything I’ve read). Just what a struggling team needs to kick start the 2nd half.
@Robert: Because you always do?
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Exactly. While I agree with certain comments being made on the other thread, this negativity is getting ridiculous.
As an aside, the comment I’m referring to is about trading Bailey. I agree that it’s a great feeling when you see the homegrown talent throwing not one, but two no-nos, but I think that they could sell extremely high with a weak starting pitching market. It’s an entirely different reason for trading him than Chapman, because we actually could get a lot in return.
@rhayex: It’s not clear to me that you couldn’t “get a lot in return” for Chapman’s services. At the very least, I’m curious what a trade could bring.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: My point was that you could probably get two top tier prospects for Bailey, plus some mid level ones as well. The reason is because he has been performing extremely well (minus a few hiccups) for the past year or year and a half, plus he’s under control until 2015. If you’d told me that you could get that kind of return for him a couple years ago, I would’ve taken it. Now, it just makes too much sense not to. That restocks now and for the future, and I’m not convinced it’ll change the output from the pitching staff for this year either.
With Chapman, the absolute most you can hope for is a top tier prospect and some middling to low ones. Alternatively, you could possibly get two or three B prospects and a low one.
@rhayex: Again, the whole “starting pitching is more valuable than relief pitching” thing strikes again.
Also, Stanton>Chapman. To those who thought we could get Stanton for Chapman straight up during ST.
@rhayex: I can’t see trading Bailey unless the Reds don’t think that they can re-sign him. We seem deep in starting pitching, but take away Arroyo, add more health trouble for Cueto, and suddenly the situation doesn’t look so good.
If you trade Bailey, who do you replace him with? Are you confident that Cueto’s going to be back/healthy? Are you willing to sign a 36 year old Arroyo to a mega-contract to keep him?
Yesterday, Bailey looked to me to give up a bunch of seeing eye grounders that killed him. Didn’t look as bad as his numbers indicate to me. As he said, “just one of those days”.
@Bill Lack: Okay, it doesn’t have to be Homer or even Chappy but are you suggesting to stay pat? If not, who would you be willing to part with that actually would bring in equal or possibly a better return?
As the season goes on, I’m more & more willing to looking at extending Bronson if a reasonable deal can be worked out. He looks like he may have a couple of decent seasons left in the tank. For whatever reason homer is 5-8 with a 3.82 ERA and that is just not good. Maybe the advance metrics indicate he should be graet but on the field, and in reality he is not.
I’d trade Chapman in a microsecond for the right deal. Arroyo’s said no home team discount, so it’s going to be a big amount..and he could drop off the cliff any second, IMO. I MIGHT go a 2 year – $30M deal, maybe…
@Hank Aarons Teammate: What I meant by that is the win one, lose one, win one, lose one. Team is kind of stuck in neutral.
There is still plenty of time. They just seem to need a spark to get them going.
Of course, Baker is focusing on the lack of Jay Bruce getting the run in from 3rd in the first, saying “It’s sort of disheartening when you see it happen over and over and again,”
Once again: the Reds are the best team in the NL at getting runners home from 3rd with < 2 outs. But Baker wouldn't know that, right? As for Frazier's AB, what are you gonna do? He ripped the crap out of the ball. Also, if Bruce hits the sac fly there (which makes everyone so happy, like Marty), then Frazier lines out, the Reds still lose the game.
As for Bailey's slider to the pitcher, I have no problem with it, he threw a terrible pitch and the game was screwed from there. If we're going to go over each individual pitch a guy throws, well, that's just too much.
A bad loss, overall.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I rarely single out a single pitch selection as worth discussing, there’s no point to it. But I just don’t understand that one. Minor swung and missed at both fastballs Homer threw him. One was during the fatal AB, bringing the count to 1-1. Then Minor fouls off a slider to make it 1-2. That’s good, now he’s set up for strike 3 on the fastball, Homer’s best pitch. But then another slider ? With 2 strikes on Freddie Freeman, Homer threw a 98 mph fastball right past him. Why not the same 2 strike approach when striking out Minor at that point was critical ?
Corky is a lot smarter than me about baseball. I guess he was thinking Minor is still looking fastball and a good slider easily gets him. I feel he was thinking too much.
Yes, a bad loss overall. Can’t just blame one pitch, but can’t get it out of my head.
@pinson343: Usually when you throw an off-speed pitch to a pitcher, they are helpless, especially when they have just seen fastballs. That’s probably what they were thinking. Not trying to defend it, just offering a possible explanation.
@Steve Mancuso: Yeh after video review I see that Corky set up low and away. That would have worked. Homer missed badly.
But I still think they were showing Minor too much respect.
@pinson343: And as noted, Homer was blowing the ball past the pitcher – so why stop when something’s working.
And for the negative posts, live with it as the Reds were sold as a championship team this year – and they look like anything but.
Maybe for some positive vibes, you could go out to the Cards website – maybe that will lighten things up a bit for you. But beware man, because when the Cards started struggling and showing a kink in their armor a couple weeks ago, you never saw a fan base turn on their team so fast. Stick with the Reds and simply block out the negative comments because how this team is currently under-performing and looking like bush-leaguers, you gonna see a steady stream.
@cincyreds14: People can post whatever they want. But I’m just saying, there’s negative posts, and then there are just posts that are way out there.
Cards fans are worse, IMO. Spoiled rotten and turn on their team faster.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I wonder how the Cards blogs look today, after a second loss to the Cubs in 3 games.
Well, that ends my undefeated streak of attending Reds games. Last night made it 7-0. Today I’m 7-1. That was such a frustrating game. Everything went right for Atlanta. In the 3 innings we left runners on, we had 3 hits that were absolutely smoked that managed to find gloves, while 9 of Atlanta’s 11 hits were ground balls that barely missed diving gloves. Obviously our offense sucked after inning 2 but that was just one of those games. Oh yeah and those 2 solo shots. We could have done without those, too.
@ArkansasRedsFan: Get one tomorrow for us!
@cincyreds14: Unfortunately I’m back in Chattanooga tonight and I’ll be watching from there.
@ArkansasRedsFan: Get one anyway, we need all the help we can muster – Go Reds (any 3B, SS, C or LF prospects down your wayby chance?)- the Reds need all the help they can get right now.
one problem is that Votto should be slugging .600 instead of .500…………
@zab1983: With the way Joey is performing this year, the #2 slot in the order is the perfect spot for him. If and when he really starts driving the ball consistently, that could change.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: I absolutely agree.
@zab1983: Maybe more like .550. He’s had one year ever at .600, and that was exactly .600.
I think its pretty safe to say Walt and the Reds are not going to make any significant moves. They are no worse off then they were this time last year. Add to that the “help” needed is coming from the DL the Reds are what they are and we just have to accept that….
@dn4192: The Reds did improve their bench in the 2nd half of last year. I am hoping for that much.
@dn4192: How long for Ludwick to start rehab (its only been 3 1/2 months)?
The Reds best chance to rally late was in the 7th inning, given the late inning strength of the Braves bullpen, and with Minor approaching 100 pitches. After Cozart’s out, who do the Reds have batting ? Corky Miller and Izturis. This makes a statement both about the Reds bench and how it gets used.
@pinson343: I deeply agree with this, both parts. Corky Miller may be able to call a game like a professional catcher, but he isn’t even a minor league hitter any longer. Expecting him to get a hit there was ridiculous.
@Steve Mancuso: Following what you are saying, but stronger: I don’t care how Miller calls a game, frankly. He should not be catching major league baseball. All I keep hearing is that everything says he’s brilliant behind the plate (they quoted Bobby Cox as such on the Reds broadcast).
Well, he’s IN THE MINOR LEAGUES. That means that out of 60 catcher positions, a guy who’s brilliant behind the plate, by all accounts, is not one of the best 60 catchers. That’s because he cannot hit. At all.
Cubs lead the Cards 6-2 going into the 8th. If they hold on to win, then their comeback win over the Reds started up a 17-12 streak. Ondrusek got the Cubs going !
Also of course that means the Reds are still 5 back. That’s not much consolation after such a crappy loss, but if the Reds win tomorrow, they’re guaranteed to be no further than 5 games out going into the AS break.
I remember someone on the blog looking at the Reds and Cardinals schedules a couple of weeks ago and saying that 5 games back at the AS break was an optimistic guess. Of course, the Cardinals had a slump of their own.
@pinson343: Hold on, Cubs RFer Borbon flubs a Molina fly ball. E9 and Cardinals have bases loaded.
@pinson343: worked out of it with only one run allowed. Nice.
@pinson343: You might be thinking of when I wrote a post titled Strap in for the Next Four Weeks, and concluded this: it’s not hard to imagine the Reds going 12-14 during the next four weeks, although they’d have to improve their record against winning teams to do it. If the Cardinals go 16-8, as we settle in to watch the All Star Game at the Mets’ Citi Field, the Reds would be 7.5 games out of first place.
The Reds won’t have gone 12-14 but luckily the Cardinals have been struggling. That said, a 5 game lead is nothing to make light of.
@Steve Mancuso: five down to two teams. That’s a tough row to hoe.
@homerandbruce: Yep, Cubs hold on to beat Cardinals 6-4 and Pirates beat Mets. Reds are 5 behind both.
@Steve Mancuso: Yes, Steve, that’s what I was thinking of.
@Steve Mancuso: What worries me the most is that the Cards and Pirates have both been largely spinning their wheels too; and history (and probability) suggests that at least one of them will get at least reasonably hot again.
The Pirates and Cards have virtually their entire face to face season series ahead of them. The Reds very much need that to split pretty much down the middle if they are to get by both of those teams short of whipping off a 1970’s vintage 41-9 type run between now and the end of the season.
@cincyreds14: Except the Cubs aren’t in last place. Not much of a consolation there.
@cincyreds14: Woops, haven’t looked down in a while, Milwaukee is in last – the Cubs are picking up a head of steam though and eyeballing 3rd place.
@cincyreds14: SF already won TWO World Series under Dusty’s steerage as Reds Manager. If the Chicago Cubs finish above the Reds in the NL Central, would Dusty be, *gasp* fired?!? Probably not.
@wildwestLV: Hey wild, what are you trying to say? Dusty has never led a team to a World Series victory. And there was never any intent to degrade SF or their fans – they are a fine organization with one heck of a manager. And any success the Giants have had has had nothing at all to do with Dusty (as they like to say in the business world – stay on point, please).
@cincyreds14: That’s not a negative post, that’s one of the way out there ones I was talking about. The Cubs are 9 games behind the Reds. You think they’re going to catch the Reds? What odds do you put on it?
@Hank Aarons Teammate:
Way out there – the Reds catching the Pirates and Cards is way out there!
With the way the Reds and Cubs are playing just saying it could happen (pay attention – the Cubs have picked up 3.5 games on the Reds this past month and the Reds have lost 1.5 games in the standings to the Cards)?
Just saying that they would be long odds – but definitely not as long as the Reds jumping over both the Cards and Pirates. Definitely another delusional Reds fan that really hasn’t been paying attention to recent trends.
@cincyreds14: That’s funny, I’m delusional. I was always the one being criticized for being too negative (and a Cards fan). It’s only since all the new people who are often irrationally negative that now I’m a Kool Aid drinker, supposedly.
As to your post: the Cubs chance of catching the Reds is very long, and the Reds chance of finishing in first place is also long. I have said most of the year I expect the Cards to win the division. But I think the Reds have a better chance of finishing first than finishing fourth.
As for picking up 3.5 games…wow. The Reds play a really, really bad month, the Cubs are good, and they got 3.5 games. So, the Reds will finish behind the Cubs if they play lousy from now until October. OK. You got me.
@pinson343: Yeah, I was the one who thought 5 back after July 21st would be optomistic: http://redlegnation.com/2013/06/17/the-fierce-urgency-of-now/
I didn’t expect the Cardinals to struggle with the favorable schedule the way they have. That has been a forgotten blessing. This team could easily be 8 or 9 games back now. Nevertheless, they still have to play the Pirates immediately after the break, while the Cardinals get the floundering Padres. And, of course, we have to deal with the Braves once again today, while St. Louis get the Cubbies.
Beautiful recap. Fay pretty much sums it up: Reds can’t beat winning teams, even when THEIR ENTIRE STARTING OUTFIELD doesn’t play. Of course, they haven’t exactly been beating losing teams WITH their starting outfield playing, either. I’m glad that Dusty is able to school Zack Cozart on the art of big league hitting this season, though. At least something productive is being accomplished. Woooooooooooooo! (Reds’ howl).
Disheartening is a good word for the season as a whole. Definitely the wrong year to be in the NL Central. Things could still turn out all right but the 2013 Reds sure feel snakebit to me.
You gotta be kidding me, there has to be a Ron Gant (95), Kevin Mitchell (great years @ 31 and 32), Glenn Braggs, Dimitri Young or as a topper Dave Parker out there hiding inn the weeds somewhere to ignite this team and put a little fire in their belly and under their rears!
@cincyreds14: Would that it were so.
I still have faith in the Reds, but I’m wondering if this is the start that makes Bob give Homer the $100 million dollar contract. The guy is so inconsistent, even with 2 no hitters, I can’t be sold on him. He can’t beat the Cardinals (though he dominates the Pirates) and 3-4 runs in 6 innings seems more like the norm rather than the exception. He is just not a #1 or #2 pitcher – not saying he couldn’t be but he has just never really shown it in long stretches over the years.
Anyone else see the news that the Reds-SF game is now being made up in SF as part of a double header on 7/23. The Reds will wear home jerseys and bat last. Kind of ridiculous.
@Kyle: WTF? Why is this acceptable?
The Giants are a terrible road team. I’m pretty unhappy about this.
That now will make it an 11-games in 10 days west coast road trip to end July. Yuk.
@Kyle: Seriously? There’s no way the Reds should have agreed to this. I really don’t get this organization sometimes.
I tuned in just in time to see the Minor double. I’ve got to say, especially after the way Bailey dispatched Freeman that one has to wonder what they were thinking by not trying the same approach with Minor.
That said, in that situation how do you let yourself get beat down the line like that? I thought it was a combination of poor positioning (i.e. probably from the bench) and slow reaction by the fielder (the runner was actually back on the bag when the bag as the ball went by).
I also thought the positioning and fielder’s reaction was poor on the two bleeders through shortstop the next inning when another run came across. At that point they had the 3B on the line but the SS pretty much up the middle, practically daring the Bravos to just serve the ball through the normal SS spot. You can’t do that if the SS isn’t capable of covering that half way spot on a routine to slow grounder.
@OhioJim: I did a whole lot of complaining, on the game thread and above, about not blowing away Minor with a fastball on that pitch.
But you can’t blame poor defensive positioning. Corky set up for low and outside.
Bailey hung one on the inner half. It was a terrible pitch.
@pinson343: What I’ve noticed with many of the super slow motion replays (but did not see any of yesterday) is that the regular 3B and SS while being steady (sure handed and reliable throwers) simply are not outstanding, especially where range is concerned.
They don’t read the pitched ball onto and off of the bat any better than they read a pitched ball coming at them when they are batting and are slow to react because of that. The SS in particular often seems to actually lean opposite and sometimes even take a false jab step before starting his route to a batted ball.
The Giants substitute OFers were 7 for 11. I miss the Uptons.
What’s going on with the blog ? I post a comment, not replying to anybody, and instead of showing up at the bottom of the thread, it shows up in the middle.
@pinson343: Think you said Giants when you meant Braves. But yeah, as Dusty would say they (the “subs”) were ready for their opportunities. Also maybe their use and success reveals a hole in the Reds advance scouting and preparation.
This is just a very disappointing season however you look at it.
Linecum with the no-no. 148 pitches. Think Dusty would let any Reds starter go that long? I seriously doubt it. Boochy stuck with Timmy. Good for him.
@sezwhom1: Talk about birds of a feather, Lincecum and Bailey. Of course Lincecum ascended higher than Bailey but if yoiu are an org evaluating them for contract offers; how do you know which one you are going to get (the most). Or as has been famously said, life is like a box of chocolates.
@OhioJim: Lincecum was the starting pitcher for the Giants the night Bailey pitched his no hitter.
I’ve said it before, this is feeling more and more like 2011 with what seems like a total lack of urgency to turn it around. I would love to see the stats of how many Milton games there were in April and May vs how many there have been in June and the first half of July. I’m going to guess it isn’t even close. I would really love to see these guys allow Milton to take an extended vacation, but I’m not holding my breath.
Heavy is the head that wears the (2012) NL Central crown. Hang in there folks.
Darwin Barney with the GG over Brandon? Watch the top of the 9th in yesterday’s game vs the Cardinals. No error, but he couldn’t make a play Phillips makes in his sleep, letting a run score and putting the winning run on base. Oh, and the Reds will make the playoffs, probably as a WC. Dusty managing a one game playoff is a marginally worse nightmare than him managing a longer series, so I worry we’ll go out in 1 game instead of in 5.
SITE MODS: something is wrong with the comment threading. It looks like it’s treating last night’s late comments as early ones today. So a comment I made at 10:41 am is placed before comments from last night (pm) and from just after midnight last night. Just FYI, not a complaint. You guys are awesome and I really appreciate what you do for us.
In response to Fay’s tweet about the Braves starting OF being out. . .
I’ve said before, “Good teams don’t wait for the other teams. Good teams look to go take it.” The Braves didn’t sit and wait on their laurels while their starting OF was injured. They pressed on. They played like they wanted to win. The Reds are still playing (even though they seem to be coming around a bit) like they don’t want to lose or waiting for the other team to lose. They play like Baker, “It’ll come, it’ll come.”
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