Over the last few off-seasons, we’ve gone through some key players on the Reds, and discussed how valuable they were. Let’s kick this year’s series off with, possibly, the most polarizing player on Cincinnati’s roster, Drew Stubbs.

When we did this two years ago, everyone was pretty optimistic about Stubbs. Two years later, the water is much murkier.

In 2011, Stubbs suffered through a second straight season in which his numbers dropped. Stubbs hit .213/.277/.333 (that’s a paltry 610 OPS) with 14 HR, 40 RBI, and an OPS+ of 61. Yes, you read that right: 61. That’s almost unimaginable for a 27 year-old who posted a 105 OPS+ in his age 25 season. Isn’t Stubbs supposed to be in his prime?

Yes, Stubbs’ defense is still great. In fact, I’d say his defense is underrated; he’s really good. Still, despite the great defense, when your WAR drops from 2.8 to 1.6 to -0.2 over three years when you’re supposed to be improving, you have problems. Serious problems.

This is really almost unfathomable. What’s the problem? Is it time to give up on Stubbs? Is Billy Hamilton really the answer?

So, let’s hear the Nation’s collective wisdom about Drew Stubbs. Is he overrated, underrated, or properly-rated? What is his future with the Mighty Redlegs?

Blame Chad for creating this mess.

Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

Join the conversation! 133 Comments

  1. Stubbs defensive value (mostly defined by his speed) is minimized in GABP. If he roamed CF in one of the pitcher-friendly colosseums out west, his defensive value would be maximized. His offensive value might also be maximized in one of those venues with more space available for some hits to fall, but a SO is a SO so maybe not. With that said, I don’t think that Stubbs and the Reds are going to part ways this season, unless WJ receives an equitable offer for Stubbs. Stubbs is still cheap, should only receive a minimal raise for his 1st ARB year in 2013 and has three years of club control remaining. If he tanks again in 2013, Stubbs will be gone, even if Hamilton is not yet ready to take over CF.

  2. Stubbs is very valuable . . . as an extra outfielder/pinch runner. However, if he is in the lineup everyday next year (even in the seven or eight hole), there is a problem. It is obvious that “the book” is out on Stubbs and pitchers generally have little difficulty with him. Of course, this is problematic. His defense saves runs. His offensive ineptitude costs more runs than his defense saves. Moreover, given his age, this is not something that is likely to get better with time.

    • Stubbs is very valuable . . . as an extra outfielder/pinch runner.However, if he is in the lineup everyday next year (even in the seven or eight hole), there is a problem.It is obvious that “the book” is out on Stubbs and pitchers generally have little difficulty with him.Of course, this is problematic.His defense saves runs.His offensive ineptitude costs more runs than his defense saves.Moreover, given his age, this is not something that is likely to get better with time.

      well said. The “book” is out in widespread publication about Stubbs. Throw crap pitches that he will chase until he gets two strikes on him, then throw strikes right down the middle, maybe the lower third of the strike zone, and he’ll watch one for strike three.

      I guess I’m stuck on the idea of getting a proven center fielder like Bourn, which will require multiple years (finances permitting), and going with Ludwick or some other stopgap left fielder for a year or two until Billy Hamilton is ready. Then put him in left field. Left should be easier to play than center, especially in GABP, for a guy who is defensively challenged. Hamilton, Bourn and Bruce should cover a lot of ground to help out the pitchers, and having Hamilton and Bourn at 1-2 in the lineup before Votto sounds nice to me. Then Bruce and Frazier, (or Frazier then Bruce, since two lefties can’t hit back-to-back because it makes Dusty’s head explode), then Phillips, Hanigan and Cozart.

      Obviously this goes nowhere if the Reds can’t or won’t spend the money on Bourn, but Christmas is only a few months away …

  3. I think a few years ago Stubbs was a bit overrated, likely due to his “potential” and the good pop in his bat (offsetting his strikeouts to some extent). Then this year he was likely underrated at times, with people calling for Heisey as a replacement (has his own major flaws), Bruce to move to CF (really the answer?), and even a Juan Pierre rental.

    Now, I think most people have him properly rated. As Chad says, really good defense and really poor offense. But the most ominous thing of all is not how he is currently rated, but his future trajectory. He’s likely to continue to get worse offensively, and he’s already really poor. If Billy Hamilton is the answer (and I think he is a good candidate), then it’s a) live with Stubbs for a year or b) get a 1-year replacement. I definitely lean towards the latter

  4. Stubbs has to go. Juan Pierre would be better, and thats not saying a lot. Stubbs strikes out too much. They need a 1 yr rental until Billy Hamilition is ready. Stubbs is really setting this team back.

  5. I get that you can’t completely up-end what you’re doing in the middle of a season, but at some point there needs to be a come to Jesus moment where you decide it’s simply not working. With Stubbs, I kept waiting for him to pull a George Costanza and do THE EXACT OPPOSITE of whatever his first instinct was. Never happened. If I were him, I’d spend the entire offseason remaking my swing—widening my stance, choking up, increasing my plate coverage and contact rate. Being the low average/decent pop guy isn’t working.

    I hope Stubbs realizes the gravity of his situation—that he’s on the Willy Taveras path to being out of the league before 30. That said, I’d keep him as a stopgap until Hamilton is ready (if a .610 OPS is the bar, isn’t he ready NOW???) on the condition that we bring in a platoon partner who can hit righties.

  6. @Sultan of Swaff: You make a great point. It’s hard to imagine that Hamilton couldn’t manage .610 at this point. The only question, however, is Hamilton’s defense. The word is that he isn’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively in Arizona.

    • @Sultan of Swaff: You make a great point.It’s hard to imagine that Hamilton couldn’t manage .610 at this point.The only question, however, is Hamilton’s defense.The word is that he isn’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively in Arizona.

      Where did you see that he “isn’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively in Arizona”?

      • @Bill Lack:

        Where did you see that he “isn’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively in Arizona”?

        Everything I have seen from his work last year in A+ & AA, the AZ Instructional League after the season and now in the AFL, including Hamilton’s own assessment, has been very positive to this point, with just one caveat that there is a lot to learn regarding the hitters. This kid is simply a ball player and a sponge for learning the game. He’s made every requested adjustment and has excelled every time. Hamilton should start next season in AA, but I expect to see him in AAA before the end of the season and vying for a spot in the show during spring training 2014. I do hope he works on his base stealing technique during 2013 and strives to get his success rate upwards of 85% rather than trying to steal at will during 2013.

        • I do hope he works on his base stealing technique during 2013 and strives to get his success rate upwards of 85%

          Ricky Henderson, the greatest base stealer of all time had an 80% success rate. Michael Bourn, currently the best active base stealer is 81%. 85% is shooting a bit high I think.

          • @TC:

            Ricky Henderson, the greatest base stealer of all time had an 80% success rate. Michael Bourn, currently the best active base stealer is 81%. 85% is shooting a bit high I think.

            In 4 minor league seasons, Bourn had an 85.4% success rate (164 of 192) for stolen bases. I agree that 85% is a lofty, albeit attainable, goal and I would not expect such success at the major league level (82% would be a strech in the show), but 155 stolen bases in a single minor league season was also a pretty lofty accomplishment for young Billy Hamilton.

  7. Anyone else sleep a little easier knowing the WLBs luck finally ran out?

    • Yes — I slept well. And I couldnt help noticing that they scored 1 run in the last 3 games.
      I felt the Reds threatened and fought back much harder in their last game against the Giants…Even after the horrible inning. The WLB just seemed to give up to me. I’m surprised they weren’t whining about the rain… and I felt a few of the plate called strikes by the ump (especially in the 8th) were just to wrap up the game.

      Anyone else sleep a little easier knowing the WLBs luck finally ran out?

      As for Stubbs — I have a bad feeling we will see him next year. Dusty loves him too much.

    • Yes — I slept well. And I couldnt help noticing that they scored 1 run in the last 3 games.
      I felt the Reds threatened and fought back much harder in their last game against the Giants…Even after the horrible inning. The WLB just seemed to give up to me. I’m surprised they weren’t whining about the rain… and I felt a few of the plate called strikes by the ump (especially in the 8th) were just to wrap up the game.

      Anyone else sleep a little easier knowing the WLBs luck finally ran out?

      As for Stubbs — I have a bad feeling we will see him next year. Dusty loves him too much.

    • Anyone else sleep a little easier knowing the WLBs luck finally ran out?

      I loved seeing them getting smoked last night. If I saw 12 in 12 tweeted again, I would have screamed.

  8. I think in the right situation, he can be very valuable. Start him when we are on the road in a large stadium, start him when Arroyo pitches, start him against lhp, and when he is facing a rhp you bat him 8th. Make it around 60% or so and give Heisey the other starts. This maximizes his value, takes some pressure off of him, and I think his ops would rise considerably in that environment. His hitting issues over the last 2 years are almost entirely against rhp. So this would eliminate about 100 of his worst AB from last year and he would likely ops greater than 700 while playing elite defense.

    I also think if he did start every game next year that there is very little chance he would hit that bad again, but the above scenario would maximize his value to the team. Dusty needs to prove that he is a manager that puts his players in the best position to succeed.

    I would even go so far as to say that any player we could realistic bring in could not out perform the above platoon.

  9. @Drew Mac: I don’t put a lot of stock into outfield defense given the small number of opportunities. I mean, Bruce and Stubbs averaged about 300 total chances each this season, so barely 2 per game. Of those chances, 4 of 5 are routine. So really we’re talking about one or two difficult plays a week at most. I would gladly trade the chance to turn those one or two plays into outs to get a better bat into the lineup. Even so, Hamilton’s speed will allow him to recover better than anyone from a bad read or a poor route. It’s a non-issue for me.

  10. In regards to Stubbs, I think Walt will try to sell him this offseason as long as he can pickup a CF place holder for Billy Hamilton. The Reds just don’t have the financial situation to go out and buy Micheal Bourn for a year, but I would have said the same about Ryan Madson last year. CF and closing aren’t comparable though.

    I think it’s time to hit the free agent market for a CF and hope Hamilton is still getting on base at a .400 clip in AA and AAA and promote him for September baseball. That’s my best case scenario. Worst case is we go a year without Hamilton and deal with another Taveras, Patterson, etc.

    Stubbs along with Cozart and a pitching prospect could bring in a nice piece. Would that be enough for Dexter Fowler? He could swing over to LF when Ludwick is gone and could hit for power in GABP. Maybe?

    What would it take to get Josh Reddick from the A’s? He is probably untouchable, but you would have thought the same about Mat Latos too.

    C’mon Walt, do us well, again.

  11. Stubbs needs to spend the entire offseason with Joey Votto. He should not leave Joey Votto’s side for the next 4 months. Votto needs to take him under his wing. Absent that trade him.

    • Stubbs needs to spend the entire offseason with Joey Votto. He should not leave Joey Votto’s side for the next 4 months. Votto needs to take him under his wing. Absent that trade him.

      The problem isn’t Stubbs, but the coaching staff. It is their job to work on him to change his approach at the plate. Following Voto won’t do a thing, as long as the coaching staff is okay with his free swining nothing is going to change.

  12. Drew Stubbs is an enigma. I have to assume that at least part of his problem is confidence, because he has good days where a hits the ball with some authority. If everyone else on the Reds is hitting well, then having Drew Stubbs as the number eight hitter might be acceptable. He would fit the role of “great field, no hit” usually reserved for a shortstop or catcher, which is normally acceptable on an otherwise good hitting lineup. What disturbs me the most is that Stubbs does not appear to have made many adjustments over the past two seasons. He still can’t bunt (a skill that apparently nobody on the Reds possess), he still has a long swing, he doesn’t beat the ball into the ground because he wants to lift the ball for homeruns, and he takes too many good pitches to become adept at taking a walk. Right now, the Reds do not possess a suitable replacement and that will probably result in him making the opening day roster in 2013. Also, the only realistic options for upgrading center field for two years involve trading for someone like Denard Span (the Reds have an extra starter if Aroldis moves out of the bullpen) or signing a free agent for a one year contract with a second year option (the Ludwick treatment for someone like Shane Victarino). The market will be flush with money and nearly everyone needs a leadoff hitter, so I won’t be surprised if Drew Stubbs starts next season in center field with Brandon Phillips hitting leadoff from day one.

  13. I can tolerate another year of Drew in CF because of his defense, as long as he stays in the 8th spot. But here’s the thing: Nobody should ever, ever, get hooked on his potential again when he starts hitting for two weeks (like, say, the All-Star Break when people stopped wanting to trade him). I will never believe in a huge upside for him anymore. He is what he is. 2010 is a rumor to me. If another GM finds appreciable value in that, I hope Walt is all ears.

    • I can tolerate another year of Drew in CF because of his defense, as long as he stays in the 8th spot. But here’s the thing: Nobody should ever, ever, get hooked on his potential again when he starts hitting for two weeks (like, say, the All-Star Break when people stopped wanting to trade him). I will never believe in a huge upside for him anymore. He is what he is. 2010 is a rumor to me. If another GM finds appreciable value in that, I hope Walt is all ears.

      You mean Stubbs did not fundamentally change as a player during those two weeks? I’m shocked, because almost everyone here was sure that he did.

  14. Just wondering what happens when we relize that Hamilton isn’t all what many hope or think he will be and in truth is basically no better overall then Stubbs is. What leads anyone at this point to actually believe Hamilton is going to be a quality ML CF talent?

    • Just wondering what happens when we relize that Hamilton isn’t all what many hope or think he will be and in truth is basically no better overall then Stubbs is.What leads anyone at this point to actually believe Hamilton is going to be a quality ML CF talent?

      This.

      Damn. Sorry. I hate to be a downer. But I’m inclined to not dub Billy Hamilton as the second coming of Eric Davis just yet. Currently he is one dimensional player: that is, he steals bases. He did have a good OBP this past year. That was due to his patience at the plate (which I like), but MARK MY WORDS, Baker/Jacoby will WRECK that when he gets to Cincinnati.

      If you want to know what has happened to Stubbs, look no further than Dusty-Ball. Stubbs likes to swing first, ask questions later. Sound familiar (Hello, Dusty-ball). The same will happen to Hamilton. Hard to steal when you’re carrying your bat back to the dugout.

    • Just wondering what happens when we relize that Hamilton isn’t all what many hope or think he will be and in truth is basically no better overall then Stubbs is. What leads anyone at this point to actually believe Hamilton is going to be a quality ML CF talent?

      Well then, the Reds have an even cheaper and faster version of Drew Stubbs I guess. Again, what is with the constant “but we don’t know if it will be…” No kidding, but you have to try. This is just like your Chapman shouldn’t start argument, except with even less reason. But Frazier could suck, Cozart could bottom out, Arroyo could give up 50hrs again, anything can happen. Nobody can be certain Hamilton is the man, but it’s likely he’ll do no worse than what Stubbs has offered. I’m willing to look at that and see some upside.

      If it isn’t going to be Hamilton, or the Reds trade him before he gets to the Bigs, fine. This is just based on the current premise that the Reds want Hamilton to happen.

  15. I think you have to factor into Stubbie’s defensive metrics the number of plays the guys on either side of him don’t have to make because of his enormous range in CF.

    That said, for every player burdened with “potential” who fails to live up to it year after year, there has to be a last chance season where, if he fails again, you drop him. Regarding Stubbs, for me, that year was 2012. He had the whole season to show something, and I’m pretty sure he knew that.

    No more.

  16. I am sure Stubbs is a nice man, but he can’t play major league baseball. His swing is way too long, he is hopeless against good fastballs, and he can’t figure out pitchers who change speeds well. He can hit lousy pitching–guys who top out at about 89 mph with mediocre breaking stuff. He is also very good defensively, and has excellent baserunning ability. His skill set translates to about 175 at-bats and some late-inning usage.

    He is arbitration-eligible, and some say he will get $2mm or so in arbitration. That is too much, so I’d trade him or, failing that, non-tender him.

    He does occasionally get hot, usually after some days on the bench, so if there is a ray of hope, he is going to have to work his tail off this off-season re-vamping his whole approach. I would advise him to spend the entire winter with somebody like Reggie Smith in LA, shortening the swing, recognizing pitches better, and making contact.

  17. I’m a big Heisey fan, but am rooting bigtime for Drew Stubbs. I’m not sure what interventions the Reds have tried, and I mean no disrespect, but I wonder if a sports psychologist and different batting instruction would help. Drew also has room for improvement in his defensive play, though many are seduced by his speed alone. One more year?

    • Well, the Reds have nothing to lose in getting a sports psychologist for Stubbs. It worked for the Braves pitchers during the ’90s. Who knows, maybe Stubbs will channel his inner Tony Robbins and hit .300/.400.

      I’m a big Heisey fan, but am rooting bigtime for Drew Stubbs.I’m not sure what interventions the Reds have tried, and I mean no disrespect, but I wonder if a sports psychologist and different batting instruction would help.Drew also has room for improvement in his defensive play, though many are seduced by his speed alone.One more year?

  18. Package Stubbs for another starter and make a serious push for Angel Pagan. Pagan is a FA after the season and is a good hitter and plays very good defense in center. While I would like to think that BHam can make it as a CF’er, we just don’t know as he has never played there before.

  19. BTW – I’m all in on Bourne. You want the one piece that turns the Reds from a good team to a great team? Michael Bourne is that guy. I’d sign him for 3 years and however much it takes. Give Hamilton two more years to mature in the minors. (A year of AA/AAA, and a year of AAA/Sept callup.) Wait to bring him north (well, east) the year after Baker has retired. Let Hamilton learn from Bourne a full year in the majors as the 4th outfielder. I see Hamilton as a long term investment.

    BTW – I’d tender Stubbs. He adds a lot of value as a 4th OF, or they can trade him if he brings more value that way. Regardless, I believe Stubbs can be reclaimed if put in the right situation.

    • I’d tender Stubbs. He adds a lot of value as a 4th OF, or they can trade him if he brings more value that way.

      That’s a good question. If you are an opposing GM, what are you willing to give up for Stubbs? The Reds then have to decide if the trade is worth Stubb’s arbitration or not.

      TC, I like your Bourne plan by the way. It’s aggressive and bold. Anything that gets a real OBP guy, or at least strongly improve it, on the team is a plus. Wish his BB% was a little higher, but I’ll take him.

      • I would give up my season three “Gimme a Break” VHS casettes, my Eddie Milner card collection, and my “In Dusty We Trusty” t-shirt.

        That’s a good question. If you are an opposing GM, what are you willing to give up for Stubbs?

  20. Hey… David Bell is gone. Grateful he will NEVER be the Reds manager.

  21. @TC: Can the Reds afford Bourne?

  22. Since David Bell has moved on to the Cubbies (certainly a direct result of Dusty Baker’s contract extension) maybe we can see Griffey Sr. or even better, Delino DeShields at the helm for the Bats? I’d like to see an internal candidate prepped to take over in 2015.

  23. Call me crazy, but I’d like to see the Reds look at the medical reports on Grady Sizemore and make an offer if healthy. He was out this year and only had minimal ABs in 2010-11, but owns a career OPS of .830. He could be that left handed OF bat we’ve needed. His issue this year was his back, so you have to be cautious, but hey, at best he’d be working on an incentive-laden deal. Kick the tires, Walt.

    • This is not a bad idea. Perhaps a platoon situation? . . .

      Call me crazy, but I’d like to see the Reds look at the medical reports on Grady Sizemore and make an offer if healthy.He was out this year and only had minimal ABs in 2010-11, but owns a career OPS of .830.He could be that left handed OF bat we’ve needed.His issue this year was his back, so you have to be cautious, but hey, at best he’d be working on an incentive-laden deal.Kick the tires, Walt.

  24. @Sultan of Swaff: Sire, I believe the LH OF bat the Reds have needed is already on the roster, XP. I also have some concern about Sizemore’s defensive metrics, even when healthy, for the past few years.

  25. Here’s the truth about everything: Stubbs is overrated. By everyone, everywhere, for everything. His defense is good east and west, hardly stellar north and south. I’d take Heisey going back or moving in for any ball than Stubbs. I can even handle Heisey being the everyday centerfielder until Hamilton is ready to take over.

    In terms of Hamilton, he’s a prospect. He has a good arm and great speed. We’ve seen players like that transition to center many times, specifically BJ Upton and Adam Jones. It can, and has, been done. Billy Hamilton had the exact thing happen that you want to see happen: his .OBP went up. Yet people are still all “it went up so that’s good, not sold on him.” Well you shouldn’t be sold on anyone. There’s no such thing as a sure-thing. But if we approach all prospects like that, what fun is it looking at them? Trade em all away with that logic.

    With that said, I’d be perfectly comfortable moving Hamilton in the right deal. How about Stubbs, Leake/Corcino and Hamilton for Upton and Parra from AZ? Parra can play center, Upton can play left. Parra is a lefty, Upton a right handed power bat. We sign him long term, you’ll be calling the bleachers something creative with Upton’s name on it.

    Fowler was brought up. Henry Rodriguez and Stubbs might do the trick. Maybe throw in Soto. Maybe throw in Hamilton and Homer and get Cargo AND Fowler.

    Perhaps you sign Bourne for three years, a player who I think is very comparable to Hamilton, and then you put Hamilton in left until Bourne decreases defensively or his contract is up.

    Maybe you deal with Stubbs for one more year, hoping something clicks. But Stubbs is who he is. He needs to get away from Baker, needs out of Cincinnati and needs to happen now. He still has value to him. Know what he’ll lose if he stays one more year and produces the way he has been? Value. Sell. Him. Today.

    • If the Rockies moved Fowler for Rodriguez and Stubbs, I would check to see if team officials still had all of their mental faculties. Walt would undoubtedly do this deal yesterday.

      Here’s the truth about everything: Stubbs is overrated. By everyone, everywhere, for everything. His defense is good east and west, hardly stellar north and south. I’d take Heisey going back or moving in for any ball than Stubbs. I can even handle Heisey being the everyday centerfielder until Hamilton is ready to take over.

      In terms of Hamilton, he’s a prospect. He has a good arm and great speed. We’ve seen players like that transition to center many times, specifically BJ Upton and Adam Jones. It can, and has, been done. Billy Hamilton had the exact thing happen that you want to see happen: his .OBP went up. Yet people are still all “it went up so that’s good, not sold on him.” Well you shouldn’t be sold on anyone. There’s no such thing as a sure-thing. But if we approach all prospects like that, what fun is it looking at them? Trade em all away with that logic.

      With that said, I’d be perfectly comfortable moving Hamilton in the right deal. How about Stubbs, Leake/Corcino and Hamilton for Upton and Parra from AZ? Parra can play center, Upton can play left. Parra is a lefty, Upton a right handed power bat. We sign him long term, you’ll be calling the bleachers something creative with Upton’s name on it.

      Fowler was brought up. Henry Rodriguez and Stubbs might do the trick. Maybe throw in Soto. Maybe throw in Hamilton and Homer and get Cargo AND Fowler.

      Perhaps you sign Bourne for three years, a player who I think is very comparable to Hamilton, and then you put Hamilton in left until Bourne decreases defensively or his contract is up.

      Maybe you deal with Stubbs for one more year, hoping something clicks. But Stubbs is who he is. He needs to get away from Baker, needs out of Cincinnati and needs to happen now. He still has value to him. Know what he’ll lose if he stays one more year and produces the way he has been? Value. Sell. Him. Today.

  26. I can’t think of another Manager who would run Stubbs out on a regular basis except Dusty. The numbers don’t lie. We’ve been more than patient with Drew but it’s time to move on. He’ll be 28 and I’ve seen enough of Stubbs to know what we’re going to get. He’s a 4th OF or late inning replacement.

  27. @hermanbates: Cargo and Fowler for Homer, Hamilton, Soto, and Stubbs might do the trick.

    The Rockies won’t let Cargo go easy.

    I like the idea of getting Parra and Upton over Cargo and Fowler.

    • I’m VERY hesitant to get too excited about any player who plays their home games in either Colorado or Arizona. The conditions in those home stadiums can significantly warp offensive production.

      Cargo Home .338/.394/.609/1.003
      Cargo Road .258/.313/.422/0.735

      Fowler Home .295/.395/.487/.882
      Fowler Road .248/.331/.367/.698

      Upton Home .307/.389/.548/.937
      Upton Road .250/.325/.406/.731

      Parra Home .300/.353/.452/.804
      Parra Road .263/.315/.357/.671

      I would be OK with Fowler roaming CF at GABP and batting at the top of the order, but I would pass on Cargo, Parra and Upton.

  28. If you could get Cargo and Fowler for the four players above, I would do it in a heartbeat. But the Rockies love Cargo, so I doubt that would be enough for both.

  29. Stubbs has to be dealt during the off-season for anything Walt can get!! If he’s on the roster, Dusty will play him regardless of his average (which will continue to drop off the face of the baseball world). His defense doesn’t make up for his below below below hitting (or lack of). His speed brings nothing to the plate unless he figures out how to steal first. he can’t bunt and doesn’t seem to care. He swings for the fences with two strikes or watches beautiful fastballs right down I-75 for strike three. During the season Dusty said that he needs to hit rock bottom, if he does, it’s the only thing he can hit!! His walk-up song should be Dire Strait’s Money for Nothing. Bye Drew, you need to go and hit .200 for someone else!!

  30. @rfay00: I don’t think there is any way the Reds will trade Hamilton, not going happen.

  31. @rfay00: Can they afford Bourne? He might very well be the biggest FA signing this winter. I think they can money-wise. Year-wise, doubtful.

  32. @sezwhom1: I said the same thing all year, what other team would he be a starter on? Oh and what other manager would still hit him #1 or #2 as Dusty still was doing late into the season?

  33. Hamilton and Bailey will not be traded.

  34. @TC: Well that’s why I mentioned before if Bourne could end up being a one year wonder like Madson was supposed to be, but I am not sure how a CF could compare to a closer in those regards.

  35. @stevechai: I don’t want him to be traded either. He would be needed to make that big of a deal though.

  36. @Shchi Cossack: You have to think that those road splits are looking down due to a ton of games being played in SD and SF. That whole division has a handful of large parks that could hurt road splits.

    I think they would even out if they would come to GABP.

    • @rfay00:

      You have to think that those road splits are looking down due to a ton of games being played in SD and SF. That whole division has a handful of large parks that could hurt road splits. I think they would even out if they would come to GABP.

      Ray, you have a good point, but those are some ugly splits, and then looking at Fowler’s splits makes me salivate for the same reason. Cargo, Parra & Upton are good players, but I would not give up the ranch to get them and I beleive they are (or will be) overpaid and overrated even though they are good players.

      Luddy’s mutual option (that he will certainly decline) makes any discussion right now difficult. I really want the WS concluded quickly so we can start moving on to next year. I hope he can be resigned, but that is a big question mark right now. If the Red’s lose Luddy, I would even be in favor of making a LF platoon and a CF platoon and changing the reds’ offensive approach by signing Pierre to platoon with Heisey in LF and letting XP (despite his defensive challenges in CF) platoon with Stubbs in CF. Speed and OBP kills, even in GABP, if used correctly. That would be a cost effective OF roster & possibly free up some $$$ to extend Latos & Bailey.

  37. All that being said, I can’t beleive the rope this guy has had. When he’s bad he’s a huge hole in the lineup, which seems to be more and more often. We have to do something about the on base pct. of the top 2 hitters. Stubbs is gonna take the Paul Janish route. He won’t make it out of spring training and prob. will end up being traded for his defense. I’ve never seen a guy get rung up looking as much a Stubbie. It kills me. Look for lots of new blood on this team next year. Stubbs, Ludwick, Rolen. Gone Gone Gone…Cryin wont bring em back…

  38. The Reds need to go out and acquire a legit stud #4 cleanup hitter that can produce runs. Either in LF or 3B with Frazier taking the other spot. Not many CF’s that can hit #4. Stubbs can then be placed in the #8 hole in the lineup. I’d like to see what he could do in that spot and just be left alone for a few months. If he falters there at that spot, then cut bait come July 31. If I was Walt J, I would move heaven and earth to get the Rays 3B Evan Longoria. The Rays do not need any starting pitching so the Reds depth there will not have to be traded away. The Reds and Rays match up pretty well need-wise for a blockbuster trade. Would probably lose Frazier and a couple of relievers (and others) in any Longoria deal though.

  39. I would love to have Cargo in LF. But we thought the price for Latos was steep. We haven’t seen anything yet. It would take quite a haul of players to get Cargo from the Rox. But the Reds have enough MLB ready or near MLB ready players and prospects to make such a deal. Maybe a package of Leake, Corcino, Gregorius, Heisey or Frazier, and a power hitting prospect like Soto or Lutz. And that still might not be enough.

  40. I think we all need to let go of the foolish hope that the Reds can trade Stubbs for anything of value or “package him for another starter.” Be realistic, folks. Stubbs will either A.) Start 5 days a week next year, B.) Possibly be a platoon guy, although that implies that he hits lefties or righties well, or C.) Get DFA’ed and go into the Reds Hall of Fame in the Golden Sombrero wing with Corey Patterson, Wily Taveras and Willy Mo Pena. The offense will continue to struggle until Jocketty is able to find an outfielder who can get on base more than twice a week. That probably would require spending real money IF someone is available, which is unlikely. We may very well be stuck with another season of Willy PatterStubbs in CF because “he’s fast and he catches the ball.”

    • The offense will continue to struggle until Jocketty is able to find an outfielder who can get on base more than twice a week.

      That made me laugh out loud.

  41. IMO, Drew Stubbs is highly over-rated. Can he make great plays? Sure. Does he make great plays with any more regularity than anyone else? No way. Defensively, I only give him his arm; I do like that. Past that, sorry, I’m not impressed. He plays way back because he doesn’t go back to the wall very well; no speed used there. He let’s a lot of balls drop in front of him, afraid they will get behind him; good or bad, no speed used there. In GAPB, I still see balls reaching the fences in the alleys. He can’t bunt his way on; no speed there. Baker is just as apt to bunt him over to 2nd; no speed needed there. Beating out double play balls, yes he does do well. But, it still would mean the exact same as if he flew out or struck out. We still have a man of first and gave up an out.

    He does have some pop with the bat. But, given that means you have to hit the ball first, given he has a problem with that, it doesn’t help.

    I see so many people talk about the potential Stubbs has. What potential? Besides his arm, all I see is at most a track person.

    For starting CF, IMO, we are looking for a bridge to Hamilton. Thus, the only decision, will Stubbs be that bridge? Or, will it be someone else? My only concern with it being Stubbs comes from Dusty still being the manager. Not talking about Dusty being re-signed; that’s another story. But, with Stubbs being a Baker-boy, I can’t help thinking if we keep Stubbs, Baker will still be giving Stubbs a pronounced position in the offense as well as the defense. As well as, I can’t help thinking that Baker will even start Stubbs in front of Hamilton, “Because Stubbs has been here before. He’s played an entire season of ball in the bigs before”, etc., doing nothing but making excuses for a player who, except for his defense, isn’t any better than a 4th OF. Shoot, IMO, except for Stubbs’ defense, I would take some minor leaguers instead of Stubbs.

  42. @Drew Mac: Great answer.

  43. Word out, David Bell signed with the Cubs to be their 3rd base coach. There goes our “manager in waiting”, though I never believed that too much.

  44. Every player who has made an MLB roster has potential. They wouldn’t be there otherwise. There is no potential once you get past 25 unless you’re a pitcher. I’ve never seen an outfielder who “got it” after turning 30 and suddenly became great. Stubbs will neither “get it” nor become great. He’s Willy Mo Pena with speed. I’d rather release him and take my chances. Xavier Paul would hit better than .213. Chances are, Heisey would, too. Hell, Jonny Gomes did, and they still dumped him. I felt like Gomes brought more to the emotional core of the team than Stubbs.

    • Xavier Paul would hit better than .213. Chances are, Heisey would, too. Hell, Jonny Gomes did, and they still dumped him.

      I’m probably wrong there, but I liked Gomes and felt he added more to the team overall than Stubbs. When Stubbs comes up with men on, I generally say to my self “inning over” and turn the game off.

      • I’m probably wrong there, but I liked Gomes and felt he added more to the team overall than Stubbs. When Stubbs comes up with men on, I generally say to my self “inning over” and turn the game off.

        Man, you are the definition of a fair-weather fan.

        • Man, you are the definition of a fair-weather fan.

          That’s an exaggeration. I don’t live in the market and I work at night, so I can’t see many games anyway. I meant that I generally don’t enjoy watching/listening to Stubbs’ at-bats. But throw whatever stones you like if it makes you happy, whether you know what the hell you’re talking about or not.

    • I felt like Gomes brought more to the emotional core of the team than Stubbs.

      Interesting that came through the TV screen. I have a hard time reading my own wife’s emotions, from across the room.

      In any event, Gomes’ emotion didn’t do much for the Reds in 2011, when he hit .211 (OPS 775) for them, on the way to a 79-83 record. Contrast to Stubbs, whose 610 OPS led the Reds to 97 wins. If you ask me, Stubbs is the guy with the intangibles.

      • Interesting that came through the TV screen.I have a hard time reading my own wife’s emotions, from across the room.

        In any event, Gomes’ emotion didn’t do much for the Reds in 2011, when he hit .211 (OPS 775) for them, on the way to a 79-83 record.Contrast to Stubbs, whose 610 OPS led the Reds to 97 wins.If you ask me, Stubbs is the guy with the intangibles.

        And so you’re saying Gomes did NOTHING for the Reds in 2010? Comparing 2011 to either 2010 or this year is apples and oranges. If you think Gomes didn’t contribute to the team’s emotional core in 2010 you’re either blind or have selective amnesia.

  45. It would be foolish to move Stubbs now because his value is at an all-time low. Fans always want to sell low and buy high, but that’s just not how it works. Stubbs will be in Cincy next year and will be manning CF. He IS the answer for a 1 year bridge to Hamilton because of his defense and speed and his value could only go up after next year – not a whole lot of room for it to go down. My only hope is that Dusty doesn’t put him anywhere near the top of the order…

    • It would be foolish to move Stubbs now because his value is at an all-time low.

      Who cares what his value is? It’s a dangerous thing to assume he can put up better numbers after two years of decline in his mid-20s. Why would you wait on that from your everyday CF if you’re a 97-win team for which anything except a championship is a failure? You’re almost better off going into the spring knowing you have to find a new CF than you are wondering exactly how bad Stubbs will be this year. Stubbs, Rolen, Cozart and Mesoraco made this team go into to many games with one arm tied behind their back.

      • Who cares what his value is?

        Thankfully, the guys who are paid to manage these assets care. That’s why they don’t run a $200M business like they’re sitting on a bar stool.

        • Thankfully, the guys who are paid to manage these assets care.That’s why they don’t run a $200M business like they’re sitting on a bar stool.

          The question is, what is Stubbs’ trade value? My point was, does it matter? If you can’t trade him and improve somehow in the deal (which, because his “value is at an all-time low,” you can’t) then you release him and get on with your life. Outfielders with decent athletic ability and a bit of pop who are competent in the field but hit .200 are a dime a dozen. What makes anyone think the Reds can trade Stubbs and get anything worth having in return? Stubbs isn’t untradeable because of his contract; he’s not tradeable because of his production. So the Reds either should make him a bench player or release him.

    • It would be foolish to move Stubbs now because his value is at an all-time low.

      By that logic, I should be in center field, because my value is also at an all-time low.

      A team technically doesn’t trade a player, but instead a player’s contract, and the consensus is that Stubbs’s contract has no value now, and will never have any value. If there was a potential for his contract rights to increase in value, maybe I could agree with you, but I just don’t see it. This is the equivalent of dumping Kodak stock; it isn’t worth anything and never will be. But the consensus could be wrong.

      • the consensus is that Stubbs’s contract has no value now, and will never have any value. If there was a potential for his contract rights to increase in value, maybe I could agree with you, but I just don’t see it. This is the equivalent of dumping Kodak stock; it isn’t worth anything and never will be. But the consensus could be wrong.

        Really? There’s a consensus that Stubbs has zero chance of rebounding? That’s not even the consensus in this thread. If “the consensus” is that he has zero value, that means he’s literally untradeable.

        • Really? There’s a consensus that Stubbs has zero chance of rebounding? That’s not even the consensus in this thread. If “the consensus” is that he has zero value, that means he’s literally untradeable.

          “Rebounding”? You are directly implying that Stubbs was ever an offensive force in the first place. He never has been an offensive force. And, that level of player is only getting worse offensively.

          Zero chance? Oh, of course not. But, highly unlikely is very correct.

    • It would be foolish to move Stubbs now because his value is at an all-time low. Fans always want to sell low and buy high, but that’s just not how it works.

      Amen. Unless you think he’s at his true level – in which case you just release him – you have to hold Stubbs and let him rebound.

  46. I just saw Pence’s double in the NLCS. Good Lord. Alright. Didn’t Frazier have homeruns with one hand and also no hands? Alright, Pence’s hit wasn’t a homerun. But, I saw the slow motion replay of the hit. I could almost see him getting credit for 3 hits with that one swing. I can see why the Cards SS was so thrown off by it. If you haven’t seen it, go to mlb.com and take a look.

  47. After starting the AFL season with a slash line of .517/.533/.793/1.326, Donald Lutz has gone 0-8 with 5 SO & 9 LOB in the last two games. I guess he’s getting the current Reds’ hitting philosophy down pat after his torrid start.

  48. I think we also need to remember this team finished with the 2nd best overall record in baseball and in addition shelled out a pretty good amount of money last season. I just don’t see Bob opening his wallet anymore for any “huge” monies outside of maybe Ludwick. It’s also hard to say change needs to happen when you win the number of games you did. I think there might be some mall tinkering by Walt, but come opening day I bet we see Bruce/Stubbs and Ludwick in the outfield.

  49. The thing about Drew Stubbs is that, even at his best, he doesn’t have the skills to be a long term starter. I said this the first time I did serious analysis on him, but he’s exactly the kind of player who should be a starter during his peak, but once he loses a step, he’s a part-timer because his secondary skills aren’t good enough.

    Well, now it looks like he might not even be good enough to start during his prime. I think the Reds, at the very least, need to have some kind of competition. This is a team trying to win, and you can’t just toss Stubbs out into center without a backup plan.

    It is certainly possible he rebounds, but as an organization, the Reds have to bet against it. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

    • The thing about Drew Stubbs is that, even at his best, he doesn’t have the skills to be a long term starter. I said this the first time I did serious analysis on him, but he’s exactly the kind of player who should be a starter during his peak, but once he loses a step, he’s a part-timer because his secondary skills aren’t good enough.Well, now it looks like he might not even be good enough to start during his prime. I think the Reds, at the very least, need to have some kind of competition. This is a team trying to win, and you can’t just toss Stubbs out into center without a backup plan.It is certainly possible he rebounds, but as an organization, the Reds have to bet against it. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

      They have tossed him out there this past season and in 2010 and guess what…They won. The Reds NOT winning in the playoffs is not at the feat of Stubbs, so the Reds can continue to toss Stubbs out there and win, they have proven they can.

    • The thing about Drew Stubbs is that, even at his best, he doesn’t have the skills to be a long term starter. I said this the first time I did serious analysis on him, but he’s exactly the kind of player who should be a starter during his peak, but once he loses a step, he’s a part-timer because his secondary skills aren’t good enough.Well, now it looks like he might not even be good enough to start during his prime. I think the Reds, at the very least, need to have some kind of competition. This is a team trying to win, and you can’t just toss Stubbs out into center without a backup plan.It is certainly possible he rebounds, but as an organization, the Reds have to bet against it. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

      I agree with all, except the “rebounds” part. That implies he was good at one time. IMO, he never was good offensively.

      He is no better than a 7 hole hitter if starting in CF, period. He is a role player, not someone a team builds around. Not even a second player or third player a team would build around, like what Berkman and Halliday were to Pujols. Role players may start. But, they should never be key ingredients on a team, put in key positions, primary and necessary for the success of the team.

  50. If Chris Young was gotten for a decent defender, no-hit infielder and and over-paid, rapidly declining RP, then I have to think Stubbs is basically valueless. I wouldn’t trade Stubbs for a back up infielder and a declining MR. I’d package him with something, But I don’t know what, if anything, he would get us. I just know that I’d love to see, in this order, Alex Gordon, Upton, Fowler, CarGo or Parra in a Reds uniform. Only two guys there play CF, but Hamilton is close. I could wait one year while Heisey plugs in after we package Stubbs for one of these guys.

  51. @steveschoen: Stubbs was above average offensively in 2010. He was just slightly below average in 2011. Both of those are acceptable from a center fielder. This year was not.

    • @steveschoen: Stubbs was above average offensively in 2010. He was just slightly below average in 2011. Both of those are acceptable from a center fielder. This year was not.

      “Above average” in 2010 got him demoted in the lineup in 2010. 200+ K’s in 2011 would be a bit more than slightly below average IMO.

  52. Time to get him traded, son. What this team needs is people who can consistently bat and get on base. That’s not Drew. He saunters up to the bat, strikes out, and goes back to the dugout. As far as defense, yes, he’s decent, but Ludwyck demonstrated himself to be a star during the Giant’s series.

  53. I wouldn’t have a problem with him as a bench player, but I don’t believe he will be a bench player as long as Dusty is running the team.

    • I wouldn’t have a problem with him as a bench player, but I don’t believe he will be a bench player as long as Dusty is running the team.

      Yep.

  54. The question is, how many tricks does Jocketty have up his sleeve this year? He dropped 3 bombs last winter. (Latos, Marshall, Madson). He also made two small trades moving Janish and Juan Francisco for future pieces.

    How many blockbusters this year? I’m going 2.

    • How many blockbusters this year?I’m going 2.

      One would be enough this year, provided his other big move is putting Chapman in the rotation and handing Scott Rolen his retirement paperwork.

    • The question is, how many tricks does Jocketty have up his sleeve this year?He dropped 3 bombs last winter.(Latos, Marshall, Madson).He also made two small trades moving Janish and Juan Francisco for future pieces.

      How many blockbusters this year?I’m going 2.

      And notably, the return in every one of those deals/ signings was pitching. Hopefully this year he focuses on position players (and maybe a solid tandem partner for Hanigan)

      • The question is, how many tricks does Jocketty have up his sleeve this year?He dropped 3 bombs last winter.(Latos, Marshall, Madson).He also made two small trades moving Janish and Juan Francisco for future pieces.
        How many blockbusters this year?I’m going 2.And notably, the return in every one of those deals/ signings was pitching. Hopefully this year he focuses on position players (and maybe a solid tandem partner for Hanigan)

        You forgot to mention the infamous Wilson Valdez trade. Walt gave up a good up and coming LH reliever for that POS.
        Look to the Phillies again though for a backup C. Kratz. He sent a bomb or two out of GABP and has a great arm. Big powerful guy, but just broke into the majors last year at 32. Phillies have an all-star, Ruiz, at C.

  55. Maybe there should be a thread on the things we all think should happen with the Reds’ lineup/pitching staff compared to the things we think WILL happen. Call it the Fantasy vs. Dusty (Reality) thread. Example: Fantasy – The Reds should not re-sign Scott Rolen if he chooses to play again. Dusty – Rolen will start 100 games at 3B.

  56. I would love to see the Reds package Stubbs and Leake for a solid LF or CF. I know Billy Hamilton is learning to play CF in winter ball, but he is probably still a year or two away. Not sure who would bite on this possible trade, but I would love to see Jockerty check into it!!

  57. I honestly don’t see how it is even possible for the Reds to bring Rolen back. Someone brought it up earlier (which I then verified), a player cannot sign a contract that pays him less than 80% of his salary the previous year so they’d have to pay him $6.5 million. I don’t see that happening.

    According to the same logic, I don’t see why they’d bringing Ryan Madson back either. They’d have to pay him $4.8 Million.

    • I honestly don’t see how it is even possible for the Reds to bring Rolen back. Someone brought it up earlier (which I then verified), a player cannot sign a contract that pays him less than 80% of his salary the previous year so they’d have to pay him $6.5 million. I don’t see that happening. According to the same logic, I don’t see why they’d bringing Ryan Madson back either. They’d have to pay him $4.8 Million.

      I had never heard that. That’s crazy.

    • I honestly don’t see how it is even possible for the Reds to bring Rolen back.Someone brought it up earlier (which I then verified), a player cannot sign a contract that pays him less than 80% of his salary the previous year so they’d have to pay him $6.5 million.I don’t see that happening.

      According to the same logic, I don’t see why they’d bringing Ryan Madson back either.They’d have to pay him $4.8 Million.

      Yikes and yikes.

  58. Btw, I’m all in for Upton. But, hasn’t he only ever played RF? Can he, or more importantly, is he willing to play CF? If so, I say go all in for him. He’d be the perfect candidate to slide over to LF when Hamilton is ready. Then again, it’s easy for me to spend someone else’s money.

  59. I have always been of the opinion that the Reds were always a OFer away from being a Wolrd Series team. I wanted them to get Span or Bourn.

    They HAVE to replace Stubbs at this point by now, right? The have to know he is basically the only weak link in the whole lineup.

  60. @WVRedlegs: OH YEAH!!! Jeremy Horst (a VERY promising left handed reliever) for Valdez.

    Unfortunately he’s a non-tender candidate if there was ever one. That trade didn’t work out. Horst pitched 32.1 innings, allowed 4 earned runs, and had a WHIP of 1.12. I won’t even quote some of his other stats. They’ll make you sick.

    • @WVRedlegs: OH YEAH!!! Jeremy Horst (a VERY promising left handed reliever) for Valdez.
      Unfortunately he’s a non-tender candidate if there was ever one. That trade didn’t work out. Horst pitched 32.1 innings, allowed 4 earned runs, and had a WHIP of 1.12. I won’t even quote some of his other stats. They’ll make you sick.

      Horst had a very good second half. He was coming into his own. Not that the Reds bullpen needed much improvement, but having a LH Horst would have made the bullpen just a bit better. Especially since Bray bounced back and forth to the DL most of the season. Wish we had Horst back for next year.

  61. The more I read about Bourn, the more I think the Reds might be able to afford him. The problem is the years. Bourn would be crazy to not get a long deal. He’s got 3 to 4 years of high production left barring injury. This is his only shot to get a 5 or 6 year deal at high dollar.

    Regarding BJ Upton. He’d slide in nicely at #4. Odd to see a CF as a #4 hitter. Costs a lot though and his contract is up in one year. Doesn’t solve the leadoff hitter unless you figure BP to stay there.

  62. The Enquirer is going to an online subscription plan. I’ll miss you John Fay.

    • The Enquirer is going to an online subscription plan.I’ll miss you John Fay.

      At least The Enquirer (Gannett) has more sense or is less greedy than the folks running the Columbus Dispatch. The Enquirer is offering an “online only” subscription for ~$10 a month. The Dispatch to date is offering online access only as an add on to a standard subscription so it costs 20 bucks a month for online access to the Dispatch. That is insanity in my mind since they had to fold the 15 buck a YEAR access to their sports section five years ago when they had a similar plan, i.e. only hard copy subscribers could access online content. I think they are greatly over valuing their OSU sports coverage because there are several good to excellent donation/ advertising sites that do exclusively OSU sports.

  63. I think it’s interesting that in a thread titled “how valuable is Drew Stubbs,” no on e has brouth up fangraphs value metric.

    Because of his baserunning and defense, fangraphs had him at 1.3 WAR, which they value at $6 million on the open market.

    That seems a little high, but this thread is way hyperbolic in terms of how little value Stubbs has.

    It was a bad year at the plate for sure, but even then, he did hit 14 HR and steal 30 bases at an 81% clip. So that’s a worse case scenario for Stubbs to me. It seems like some of you must not watch a lot of other teams (with comments like “no other manager would have run Stubbs out there), do you know how many guys hit 14 HR out of the 8 hole? Or stole 30 bases?

    That would be zero on both counts. The high for HR was 11, and for SB was 13. I am totally fine with Stubbs as the 8 hole hitter. I think he will be better than this year, because players usually are after a terrible year. He’s got nowhere to go but up, and his floor was still pretty dang good for a #8 hitter.

    The larger problem to me was putting Stubbs and Cozart at the top of the order all hyear.

    • The Enquirer (Gannett) has more sense or is less greedy than the folks running the Columbus Dispatch. The Enquirer is offering an “online only” subscription for ~$10 a month. The Dispatch to date is offering online access only as an add on to a standard subscription so it costs 20 bucks a month for online access to the Dispatch. That is insanity in my mind since they had to fold the 15 buck a YEAR access to their sports section five years ago when they had a similar plan, i.e. only hard copy subscribers could access online content. I think they are greatly over valuing their OSU sports coverage because there are several good to excellent donation/ advertising sites that do exclusively OSU sports

      He didn’t hit 14 HR nor steal 30 bases out of the 8 hole. As you stated, he was in the 1-2 holes with Cozart for a vast majority of the year. For the fastest man in the league, 30 SB is poor. As much pop as he has in his bat, as many AB’s as he did get, 14 HR’s is poor. If he had been in the 8 hole all year, then yes, people would probably wouldn’t be talking nearly as much.

  64. If the Reds do decide to make Aroldis Chapman a strter for next year, I hope they have Chapman all winter watching old tapes of the A’s Dave Stewart. Didn’t he also pitch on the Jays 2 good back to back years?? To learn how to be even more intimadating with more than just a 100 mph fastball. He could pitch. And he had that menacing look. Menacing look. Chapman has too much of a boyish look. He has already created about a half of a persona, mystique, or aurora, around him. I’d like to see him complete that persona. The more confidence he gets the more dominant he’ll be.

  65. With two outs, runners on 2B & 3B and Peoria trailing 5-3, Billy Hamilton smacks a triple to CF then scores on a WP. Speed kills! In the same game, Lutz has a single, a BB and 2 runs scored in 4 PA with his 2nd SB of the AFL season.

  66. Mark Gonzales‏, White Sox beat writer for the Chicago tribune, tweets, “Early AFL observations: Cincy speedster Billy Hamilton will make a smooth transition from SS to CF. Glided to two balls hit deep for outs.”

  67. A modest proposal: if you are caught stealing, that AB should be considered an out when calculating OBP.

    • @RC:

      A modest proposal: if you are caught stealing, that AB should be considered an out when calculating OBP.

      RC, I like the thinking in your proposal, but the implementation presents problems. I like the idea of statistically rewarding for positive contributions and statistically penalizing for negative contributions. The main issue with this calculation, is the hit and run or the run and hit play. The runner thrown out at 2B as a caught stealing would be penalized for the poor performance of the batter.

      Along similar lines for statistically penalizing negative contributions is the GIDP. This play results in two outs and that should be reflected in the batter’s BA & OBP, or at least some modified BA & OBP. The negative impact of a double play is acknowledged in not crediting an RBI on a double play when a runner scores. Double plays are just daggers in the back of an offense and I don’t see the statistical accounting for these plays.

      Does anyone know if the GIDP or CS plays are factored into any of the WAR calculations?

  68. Stubbs or Heisey should be the 4th OF next year. The team needs to figure out which and then move on.

    I don’t see any reason to believe either of them will be substantially better in the future. Both saw a huge drop off in power numbers this year. Heisey got a nice BA bump but is still of somewhat limited utility because he does not effectively hit LH pitching. Also, like Stubbs, he has a propensity to get himself into negative counts and striking out by chasing pitches he should lay off of and looking at pitches he should be attacking.

    The odd man out can be traded for what he will bring or nontendered.

  69. I wonder if Drew has a vision problem. Seriuosly. A batter has a only tiny fraction of a second to process information about a pitch and make the necessary adjustments. It seems to me that not only does Drew swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone, but he takes a lot of pitches that are in the heart of the plate. Also when he swings and misses, it’s often by a lot. I don’t remember many at bats where Drew fouls off several pitches. It’s as though he doesn’t pick up the visual cues as to the type of pitch, its speed, and location in time. I realize that he doesn’t appear to have much difficulty on defense. But you have much more time to process and react to visual cues in the field than you do at the plate. Just a hypothesis. But I wonder……

  70. @Shchi Cossack: And, as many have pointed out on this blog before, any time you change the way a current stat is calculated, it effects historical statistical information. The baseball card industry would be destroyed. 😉

  71. @RC: I’m not really sure how getting caught on base erases the fact that you got there in the first place. As the name indicates, OBP measures at what percentage a player gets on base. What they do at that point is measured by a whole different set of metrics.

  72. Stats are not meant to reward or penalize. They are meant to be unbias facts about a specific aspect of the game by which a player might be judged.

  73. If you know the history of the phrase “a modest proposal”, you’d know I wasn’t *entirely* serious about that OBP thing. Although it could be a new stat… OBP-…

    But who would really care about messing with the historical info contained in OBP, a stat which only stat nerds care about, according to some (probably including our manager)? [NOTE: Still kind of kidding.]

    My point, if I have one, is that if a good base stealer is successful 80%-ish of the time, then 1 time out of 5 we’re giving away not only an out, but a baserunner as well. I’m just not that excited about the stolen base as an offensive weapon – it’s good when it works, but an inning killer when it doesn’t. The ability to consistently take two bases on a single is more important than occasionally stealing one, I would think. Believe me, I remember how exciting it was to be watching when Deon got on base. But generally, the thought of stealing more bases as a route to better offense doesn’t do a lot for me.

    • If you know the history of the phrase “a modest proposal”, you’d know I wasn’t *entirely* serious about that OBP thing. Although it could be a new stat… OBP-…

      Yes, that phrase should signal to the reader that what follows will be anything but modest and only mildly serious – it will be a hyperbole.

  74. I would like to see a new stat on pitchers. And it would not change a thing historically. It would be called BBTS. Base on balls that score. Free runs. Just how many of those walks a pitcher gives up that come around to score. Its a stat that will get plenty of attention in one run games.

  75. @Sam Jackson: Seriously? Who cares what his value is? I would answer that but I’m afraid I might come off insulting. A lot of people, let’s just say that. Do you know what else is comical RL Nation? Remember when Stubbs went on that 2 week tear and won player of the week? Which of you wanted to trade him then? In hindsight I guess maybe we should have. I guarantee GM’s would’ve been more interested then than they are now. Know why Sam Jackson? Because they care about his value.

  76. @rightsaidred: What’s a hyperbole? Do they play it on New Years Day?

    • What’s a hyperbole? Do they play it on New Years Day?

      I wish! They don’t play any of the good bole games on New Year’s Day anymore. Who had that genius idea?

  77. Who was that old balding grey hair man talking to the Rays GM shown briefly on TV at the WS game last night???? Hmmmmm.

  78. I’m glad everyone seems to be on board about Hamilton not being up this year except for maybe a September callup. If the Reds brought him up for September this year like many were calling, they would’ve used the option on him for the ’13 year. But since they didn’t, they’re saving it for another year, and won’t bring him up until this September. So we need a stopgap.
    I think it’s highly unlikely Bourne is signed. Although ideal, too many other big market teams need a leadoff hitter and will overpay. I can’t believe people are clamoring for BJ Upton, he’s had 160 K’s the last 3 years and is a .240 hitter.
    Stubbs’ trade market value was low going into last year, so it’s worthless this year (dead last for CF in WAR).
    Which leaves us this: Juan Pierre. He’s cheap, and is there any question that this is the guy Dusty wants? It’s his veteran leadoff hitter, and he can be a cheap option for 1 year. Let’s just hope Willy Patterstubbs doesn’t become Willy Patterstubbierre.

  79. @NastyBoys3: Since Pierre can only play LF (and only average defensively in LF at best), he is not an option to replace Stubbs. If the Reds can not or do not resign Ludwick, then Pierre may be a low-cost, temporary option for LF or a LF platoon. His platoon split last year was pretty severe, but throughout his career he has hit LHP & RHP equally well. He may also lack the durability at this stage of his career to play everyday.

  80. Tim Dierkes reported for MLBTR that the Angels are highly unlikely to re-sign Torii Hunter. I believe Hunter can still play an effective CF and could be a reasonable two year FA aquisition for the Reds. Another option for CF would be signing Grady Sizemore to an incentive heavy contract (possibly even one year with an option) and platooning him in CF with Stubbs. If Ludwick is not resigned, platoon Heisey and XP in LF. That could provide a nice defensive OF, a solid bench & a much improved top of the order.

  81. If they can’t get Boune I don’t see any upgrades from the FA market. It would have to come from a trade. But honestly, what do I know? I was excited when they signed Willie Taveras.

  82. Please, enough with the talk about Juan Pierre. No way. Too old. No defense and no arm for the OF. And enough about Michael Bourn. That isn’t going to happen either. Too costly. And BJ Upton? Please, just what the Reds need, another Drew Stubbs. Grady Sizemore?? Why in the hell would the Reds sign an OF with a medical report longer than a Bengals player’s rap sheet???

  83. If there was any sense that the org. would consider moving Bruce to CF, why not kick the tires on Shin-Soo Choo again?

    Of course, I don’t have any sense that the org. is considering that at all. And I’m not at all sure it’s a good idea. But, man, I like Choo.

  84. Imagine a scenario where Dusty loves Jacoby because he values loyalty over talent. Imagine that players love Jacoby because he helps the good hitters stay good, feeds their egos but does not confront them with a need to adjust. Of course it’s just imagining, I’ve not talked to them. But Stubbs’ failure to change his approach says that something is wrong. He has two strikes quicker than I can say “strike two!” and it never changes.

  85. @RC: I would love an OF answer along those lines. Bruce to CF is worth a try and makes the OF solutions less expensive for a lead off hitter. Korea or Japan would be something new for the Reds.

    Ichiro loved NYC and is looking for 5-8 million?! That seems do-able and the Reds look a lot more like a contender than the Yankees at this point.

    We are talking about leadoff then this team assumes Ludwick is re-signed because there are a lot questions for the linup if Luddy walks and the replacement is a Shane Victorino . . .

  86. Stubbs could have some value as a late-inning replacement, unfortunately if he on the roster, idiot will put him in the lineup and he will continue to torpedo the offense…Lowest OBP among ALL major league starters…and Cozart was second-lowest in the NL…and who batted one and two for us most of the year? Hope somebody picks us up a center fielder of major league quality although I doubt we’ll see it for 2 more years.

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About Chad Dotson

Blame Chad for creating this mess. Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds" is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad's musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

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