The Reds and Cubs square off tonight in the first of a three-game series. This will be the last time Cincinnati gets a chance to beat up on the Cubs in 2012; let’s hope the good guys take advantage.

Homer Bailey (playoff starter?) will take the mound for Cincinnati; he’ll face former Red Justin Germano.

Discuss the game here. Go Redlegs.

Blame Chad for creating this mess.

Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

Join the conversation! 125 Comments

  1. So other “playoff” releated info..

    Dodgers game rained out today so they will play a DH tomorrow, not sure how that will impact their rotation against us this weekend.

    Chris Carpenter is scheduled to start this Friday vs. Cubs…

    Dodgers Ace said to have hip issue that can’t get worse by pitching, Dodgers will play it DTD with Kershaw the rest of the way

    Tickets for Sat’s Fox game nearing sell out from what I can see online, as I didn’t want to risk it, so bought some on Stub Hub today..wonder if people think that might be “clinch” day…

    • Stupid Cubs.

      But come this weekend when they are playing the Cards won’t we be rooting for those stupid cubs… 😉

  2. Go reds magic. # to 4 and as a fan from Missouri so the cards fan can shut up

  3. Lets get the magic number to 3.

  4. I’m torn on this one. For obvious reasons I want the Reds to clinch as soon as possible. But I’m preparing to head to Cincinnati (from Atlanta) for the three game set against the Dodgers this weekend. Would LOVE to see them clinch in person. So my best case scenario is the Reds sweep the Cubs this week, the Cardinals lose one game, and the Reds clinch with a victory Friday night.

  5. If Joey keeps playing every day, does he still have a shot at having enough at bats to qualify for the batting title?

  6. I got tix for Saturday, hoping and praying for the BIG pile up in the middle of the field :mrgreen:

  7. More stupidity on the basepaths? … I guess we were overdue for a baserunning blunder.

  8. Stubbs struck out? You could knock me over with a feather.

  9. By the way, Over/under 3 strike outs for Stubbs tonight? I’m taking the over. He need a rehab stint.

  10. Stealing third with Joey at the plate: unbelievably dumb.

  11. It seems to me that Stubbs’ problem is his inability to foul off pitches…he has absolutely no ability to make contact on a pitcher’s pitch to keep an at-bat alive. I suppose that’s not breaking news, just really evident in that last strikeout.

    • It seems to me that Stubbs’ problem is his inability to foul off pitches…he has absolutely no ability to make contact on a pitcher’s pitch to keep an at-bat alive. I suppose that’s not breaking news, just really evident in that last strikeout.

      It seems to me his confidence to even swing the bat is gone. Seriously. I mean, I know I am at work. But, according to mlb.com, Stubbs didn’t even swing the bat on all 6 pitches.

  12. @Eric the Red: He needs 502 plate appearances, assuming the Reds play 162 games … 3.1 plate appearances per game the team plays to qualify

    • @Eric the Red: He needs 502 plate appearances, assuming the Reds play 162 games … 3.1 plate appearances per game the team plays to qualify

      Thanks. I guess he’ll fall a little short. And Melky is going to win the batting title 👿

  13. I’d rather see Valdez in the 2 hole instead of Stubbs. Too much pressure for Drew.

  14. @Eric the Red: FAy had something about this last week, I believe. At the time, Joey would need to average over 5 plate appearances every game in order to qualify. By now it’s probably closer to 6.

  15. @concepcion13: He needs 5.8 PA/game by my count

  16. Isn’t Melky Cabrera a lock for the batting title?

  17. Can someone help me with how to quote someone properly in a post? I got my comment and the original commenter in the same gray box above. I’m using a tablet, if that makes a difference.

    • Can someone help me with how to quote someone properly in a post? I got my comment and the original commenter in the same gray box above. I’m using a tablet, if that makes a difference.

      Hit the quote button, and type your response underneath the blockquote coding …

      • Hit the quote button, and type your response underneath the blockquote coding …

        Thanks!

  18. Joey was probably on some drugs, during his recovery, just not the right drugs to win a batting title.

  19. Melky has 501 PA so he appears to be one PA short of qualifying for the batting title. Thankfully. Hope that’s right.

    My calculation on Votto is the same as Prime’s above. Votto would need 5.8 PA/game if he plays every game and that’s not gonna happen.

    • Melky has 501 PA so he appears to be one PA short of qualifying for the batting title. Thankfully. Hope that’s right.My calculation on Votto is the same as Prime’s above. Votto would need 5.8 PA/game if he plays every game and that’s not gonna happen.

      So they’ll charge Melky with an extra hitless plate appearance to get him to 502, but he’ll still be in the running, unless they’ve changed the rules I remember from recent years….

  20. Or MVP.

  21. @Steve Mancuso: LOL. He’s eligible to come back in the end, although I think it’d be in the postseason. SF wants nothing more to do with him. I hope you’re right about his PAs.

  22. I just read an article on Melky and the batting title and I have it wrong. When a hitter is short of the PA requirement (502), to calculate his end of the year average, you add in the PA with zero hits. So if he is one PA short, you add a 0-for-1 to his AVG, which would leave him at .346, likely high enough to win the title. Bleh.

  23. Did Didi face Cubs pitcher in AAA? any available stats from that matchup?

  24. @Steve Mancuso: Unfortunately, in that situation they’ll give him another plate appearance and assume it’s an out.

    Maybe that’s why Dusty played for the tie the other day by leaving Latos in too long: he was trying to get Joey some extra ABs in extra innings 😀

    • Maybe that’s why Dusty played for the tie the other day by leaving Latos in too long: he was trying to get Joey some extra ABs in extra innings

      I don’t know whether to laugh or cry at that. 🙂

  25. Andrew McCutcheon is the only hitter close enough (.341) to catch Cabrera (.346) for the batting title. Baseball ought to have a rule that players who are punished for PED shouldn’t be eligible for titles. After all, they were playing with PED in their systems at the time. What a joke.

  26. @Steve Mancuso: It is ridiculous. I’m willing to bet there is a rule after this season if he wins it.

  27. Wrigley just looks weird at night.

  28. @Prime: I think Selig & MLB have already, officially, said they are not going to touch this. At all.

  29. Homer looking good so far.

    • Homer looking good so far.

      Agreed. It’s usually the 4th inning that’s the test for Homer to get through. So far so good.

  30. @wildwestLV: I don’t think they would do anything this year, but for future seasons.

  31. @Prime: The way I heard it, was that they consider this like McGwire, or Bonds. Every fan will add their own “asterisk” to it, but they wouldn’t consider taking an official action in the years to come. 🙄 Cooperstown really is going to need a “special” wing.

  32. You probably thought Aroldis Chapman has the best K/9 on the Reds – especially since he’s in the running to set an all-time MLB record – but he doesn’t even have the best K/9 on his own team.

    Aroldis Chapman K/9: 15.83

    Tony Cingrani K/9: 16.62

    Ha!

  33. I’m not posting this to be a pest, I just want to know, legitimately, from the stat guys on here (not one of them), when Stubbs does break out of his slumps, what is the avg. duration of his “hot streaks”?

    • I’m not posting this to be a pest, I just want to know, legitimately, from the stat guys on here (not one of them), when Stubbs does break out of his slumps, what is the avg. duration of his “hot streaks”?

      I think that’s a good question, I’d be interested in hearing the answer to that question.

      • I think that’s a good question, I’d be interested in hearing the answer to that question.

        He has very short “warm” streaks. That’s why his average is .215

      • I think that’s a good question, I’d be interested in hearing the answer to that question.

        It seems to be about a week. His last one, around trade deadline time, was about 2 weeks, I believe his longest. But, 6 of those games, 2 of 4 series, were against the 2 worst pitching staffs in the league.

  34. When Drew Stubbs steals his next base, he’ll have at least 30 SB each of the last three seasons. Other major league hitters with at least 30 SB the past three years:

    Michael Bourn
    Raja Davis
    B.J. Upton
    Coco Crisp
    Jose Reyes

  35. You know, Cozart must have been pretty hurt. I thought it was day to day but that’s been what, 3 weeks now?

  36. Just saying, that if Stubbs is/could be turning the corner, how far could the Reds ride it into the postseason?

  37. That replay is amazing, wow.

  38. Man, this offense is absolutely brutal. I hope they can figure out something soon. They won’t win a playoff game hitting like this.

    • Man, this offense is absolutely brutal.I hope they can figure out something soon.They won’t win a playoff game hitting like this.

      17 hits in the last game.

      • 17 hits in the last game.

        And 16 were singles. They’re not hitting for power at all.

        You sometimes seem to make flippant comments when people overreact. That’s fine, and usually I agree with the comment, actually. I’m not worried…yet, but I will be if they hit like this for another week+.

        Here are non-flippant stats:

        September: 14 games before today, 17 doubles, 3 triples, 10 homers
        August: 30 games, 55 doubles, 7 triples, 38 homers

        What’s it mean? They’re slumping. Their offense isn’t as good as August but is better than September. But to throw out one game where they had a lot of singles seems beside the point.

  39. Naturally I would have like the Reds to have scored some runs that inning, but seeing Bruce steal 2nd was pretty dam awesome.

  40. Is it me or is Wrigley dark?

  41. I’m ok with the Reds slump, but I’d really like to see them break out of it at the latest with a week to go in the season.

    I’m not worried, but starting to be a bit concerned—the Reds really haven’t had a good offensive game in the month of September. Last good one was at Houston on 8/31.

    • An offense with only 2-3 guys who get on base consistently is never going to be consistent. Variance in runs scored per game is bad enough for teams like the Cardinals. The sad thing is, this problem will likely follow this team for years.

      You basically have Joey and Hanigan (strategically placed so his on base skills are the least valuable to the team), then a bunch of guys whose OBP depends significantly on the batting average. Not a recipe for consistent team scoring.

      • An offense with only 2-3 guys who get on base consistently is never going to be consistent.Variance in runs scored per game is bad enough for teams like the Cardinals.The sad thing is, this problem will likely follow this team for years.

        You basically have Joey and Hanigan (strategically placed so his on base skills are the least valuable to the team), then a bunch of guys whose OBP depends significantly on the batting average. Not a recipe for consistent team scoring.

        And yet we stand with the second in all of MLB record, which I think shows there is more to be a successful franchise then just looking at base numbers.

      • An offense with only 2-3 guys who get on base consistently is never going to be consistent.Variance in runs scored per game is bad enough for teams like the Cardinals.The sad thing is, this problem will likely follow this team for years.

        You basically have Joey and Hanigan (strategically placed so his on base skills are the least valuable to the team), then a bunch of guys whose OBP depends significantly on the batting average. Not a recipe for consistent team scoring.

        I agree, but what about the power outage?

        Your point is really well taken, basically, if the Reds are all clicking, they’ll win the World Series, and if they’re not, they could be home in 3 games. That’s like every team, I suppose, but it seems more true for a team that struggles to get on base (writing this as our 3-4-5 guys have all walked in a row!)

        • I agree, but what about the power outage?

          Your point is really well taken, basically, if the Reds are all clicking, they’ll win the World Series, and if they’re not, they could be home in 3 games.That’s like every team, I suppose, but it seems more true for a team that struggles to get on base (writing this as our 3-4-5 guys have all walked in a row!)

          I believe it’s just a culmination of several things:

          1. Simple regression by some guys. I love Frazier and Ludwick, but expecting either to finish with a .900+ OPS was being unrealistic.

          2. Joey hasn’t really got his swagger back yet.

          3. The Reds have had 2 black holes playing consistently at SS and CF. And Hanigan doesn’t really provide much power anyway so you really only have 5 positions from which to get any power from-1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF.

          4. Simple slumps by guys like BP.

          Baseball is weird.

  42. I’ll tell ya one thing, the Cubs have the best T.V. camera crew in baseball. Have they got an eye for beauty or what. 😀

  43. @RedForever: No, but, seriously. Okay, nobody will actually give me stats on this. But when his does get rolling, I think it’s like, a two-and-a-half, to possibly three week streak, of hr, rbis, base hits, whatever. Hope he comes on line during the Cards series I guess. Sorry. Stupid question.

  44. How about Stubbs/Heisey fielding stats?

  45. Good patience by Votto and Ludwick. Time for Bruce to break open the scoreless game.

  46. Germano cracking finally? Votto really worked him hard in that at bat.

  47. I like that Ludwick is getting to see a lot of breaking balls. It has been a weakness. They will start throwing more fast balls when he starts to blast the curve balls

  48. Great at bat by Bruce there, showed a lot of patience.

  49. Bases loaded nobody out, time to detonate that offensive explosion. Go Reds Go!!!

  50. I approve of Joey not wanting to slide into a catcher. Even if we lose this game.

    • I approve of Joey not wanting to slide into a catcher.Even if we lose this game.

      Absolutely. Too close to meaningful postseason games to lose him now over a late saeson game with the Cubs. And, especially with Hannigan clearing the bases.

  51. There we go, nice job Ryan.

  52. No worries, Wilson Valdez is on deck!

  53. Hanigan is such a stud.

  54. It’s okay against the Cubbies. He’s going to have to go in in the playoffs, though.

  55. Woooooo! Three run double by Hanigan 3-0 Reds still top 6th 2 outs.

  56. Valdez: .227 OBP. Remind me again why he’s a better choice to play than Gregorius?

    • Valdez: .227 OBP.Remind me again why he’s a better choice to play than Gregorius?

      Is it that high?

  57. Wilson Valdez last hit a double on June 15th. He has 3 doubles this year: one in April, one in May, and one in June.

    • Wilson Valdez last hit a double on June 15th.He has 3 doubles this year: one in April, one in May, and one in June.

      He’s terrible. He’s also made a few horrible base running mistakes.

      Homer is dealing now.

    • Wilson Valdez last hit a double on June 15th.He has 3 doubles this year: one in April, one in May, and one in June.

      Now that’s what I call consistency. 😀

  58. STL on top of Stros, 3-0, bottom of 6th.

  59. I just can’t get worked up over how the team is hitting in a bunch of games that are essentially meaningless. As long as they can avoid a prolonged losing streak, which they have, they are doing all they need to. I’ll be glad when JoeyMVP starts hitting the ball deep and I think he’s working on it. But he was out a long time. Frazier has been on the bench a lot lately. Cozart has been out. Miami Park is gigantic.

    CP: great point about walks (on base skills), it definitely contributes to streakiness. And you’re also right that it’s nothing that is going to change anytime soon. Votto and Hanigan excel, Bruce and Rolen are good at walks. Frazier, Stubbs and Ludwick are average. Soon, the Reds will have Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart, with two TERRIBLE walk rates at the top of the order. Whoo!

  60. Apologize to the Nation for giving ANY hint of optimism towards Drew Stubbs. tonight. REALLY SORRY, guys!

  61. The Brewers have seven stolen bases tonight (zero CS) against the Pirates.

  62. Jim Kelch is getting schooled by Chris Welsh, about Reds’ victories on Bow tie Tuesday, I’m sure b/c Kelch DID NOT choose to wear a bow tie tonight.

  63. Homer at 95 pitches. I’d take him out now. With the day off yesterday I’d give the bullpen some work. Lot of arms out there. No reason to push it with Homer. He’s at a career high in IP as it is. Seven IP, two hits, two walks. ERA down to 3.78. Four great starts in September.

    • Homer at 95 pitches. I’d take him out now. With the day off yesterday I’d give the bullpen some work. Lot of arms out there. No reason to push it with Homer. He’s at a career high in IP as it is. Seven IP, two hits, two walks. ERA down to 3.78. Four great starts in September.

      Agreed, Dusty needs to start dialing things back on our starters.

  64. CP: great point about walks (on base skills), it definitely contributes to streakiness. And you’re also right that it’s nothing that is going to change anytime soon. Votto and Hanigan excel, Bruce and Rolen are good at walks. Frazier, Stubbs and Ludwick are average. Soon, the Reds will have Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart, with two TERRIBLE walk rates at the top of the order. Whoo!

    Steve, I guess the hope would be that Billy Hamilton can add another soon. I’m somewhat skeptical, but remain optimistic. He can’t be worse than the current situation though. I would hope that WJ is dreaming of scenarios where he can add two .360+ OBPs to the lineup! 😀

    I don’t necessarily think Ludwick is a slam dunk resign by the way. If this organization frustrates me, it’s the propensity to overpay after a great season. Rolen, Arroyo, and BP are prime examples. I appreciate what they’ve done for the Reds, but sometimes you just squeeze out every drop of value from a good deal, then tip your hat to the guy and say “best of luck to you”. Without even including Chapman in the mix, the Reds have some cheap MLB quality starting pitching on the roster that quickly becomes expendable with quality minor league guys on the way.

    Btw I fully expect WJ to resign Ludwick. He’s quirky like that.

  65. @steveschoen: Hey, Thanks. Like I posted, I’m not a stat guy (by any means, and I know many on here pride themselves on that) so, I don’t look at all those places that I can look up those statistics myself. Again, I wasn’t trying to be a pest in asking that, I was just curious as to what to expect if and when Stubbs starts hitting again. Thanks much.

    • @steveschoen: Hey, Thanks. Like I posted, I’m not a stat guy (by any means, and I know many on here pride themselves on that) so, I don’t look at all those places that I can look up those statistics myself. Again, I wasn’t trying to be a pest in asking that, I was just curious as to what to expect if and when Stubbs starts hitting again. Thanks much.

      no problem

  66. Homer’s got squeezed on a couple pitches so far this inning.

  67. Barney is a beast.

  68. Just don’t get the point of leaving Homer in at this point. Baker trying to be BFF with his starters, I guess. The bullpen needs the work. It’s not like it’s important – in September – to get lots of innings out of your starter.

    Now Bailey has given up a run. Baker’s handling of starting pitchers is really idiotic.

  69. Fantastic outing by Homer

  70. @Steve Mancuso: As with Latos, waits too long to pull the starter. I kinda thought Dusty was getting better there. Relapse?

  71. Dusty continues to baffle me.

    • Dusty continues to baffle me.

      Personally, I’d rather see the starters throwing about 90 pitches now that the division is locked up.

  72. @Steve Mancuso: Just to be clear, I am not worked up about it.

  73. Welsh is on TV claiming that Bailey has been good the last 4 starts because Hanigan’s been catching.

    Or, it could be that pitching against Houston, Houston, Pitt, and the Cubs has something to do with it.

    • Welsh is on TV claiming that Bailey has been good the last 4 starts because Hanigan’s been catching.

      Or, it could be that pitching against Houston, Houston, Pitt, and the Cubs has something to do with it.

      Especially since Navarro, not Hanigan, was the catcher in one of those games. Crack analysis by Welsh.

      • Especially since one of those games Navarro was the catcher.

        Hah. Thanks for pointing that out, I didn’t know that. So Welsh isn’t even talking about facts.

    • Welsh is on TV claiming that Bailey has been good the last 4 starts because Hanigan’s been catching.

      Or, it could be that pitching against Houston, Houston, Pitt, and the Cubs has something to do with it.

      Let’s not forget Strode just punked the Phillies…

  74. How bout a RH pitcher now?

    • How bout a RH pitcher now?

      Wow, Marshall doesn’t get much rope with this crowd.

  75. Whew!

  76. It’s Dusty’s 3000 game as a manager tonight. Pretty impressive.

  77. Cards 4 Astros 0 after 7 innings.

  78. All three Reds base runners who scored tonight got on base by walking.

  79. Valdez back hitting below .200 – ugh. Can’t believe he’s gonna be on our postseason roster.

  80. Sadder yet, Valdez isn’t even the worst player who will be on the bench (cough, cough, Cairo, cough).

    • Sadder yet, Valdez isn’t even the worst player who will be on the bench (cough, cough, Cairo, cough).

      I’d take Cairo over Valdez if it was a game altering at bat.

      Watching Valdez hit is a truly miserable experience.

  81. @Steve Mancuso: I like it.

  82. @Steve Mancuso: The Reds will win the WS and Valdez will be proclaimed a “winner”.

  83. 34,547 showed up for tonight’s titanic struggle, 34,547.

  84. You can hear people doing the “Woooo!!”.

  85. Tonight’s Congrats go to Dusty Baker. Happy 3K!

  86. My phone just texted me the Reds won. The darn thing sometimes has the gall to text me that the Reds lost.

  87. The WOOOOO makes its way to Wrigley and the cubs announcers don’t like it. Bummer for them.

  88. Good win for the Reds, thanks to some clutch hitting by Hanigan. What the heck might as well sweep em now. You have to be impressed with the way this team wins games, even when their offense is not at its best. Keep on keepen’ on Redlegs. Adios Amigos.

  89. The rest of the season is the equivalent of the last few mins of a blowout football game, just garbage time. Normally, I’d think we would be seeing more of the young guys, but with the struggles of Stubbs/Valdez, maybe it isn’t such a bad idea to get them as many reps as we can so they can hopefully catch a streak going into October. Of course, the season numbers don’t indicate that either will, but it seems to be that Edgar Renteria had a really crappy season and then ended up being the WS MVP a couple years ago. Just try to keep it in perspective, I know it’s brutal watching Stubbs and Valdez accomplish nothing, but if at first you don’t succeed, try…try again.

    • The rest of the season is the equivalent of the last few mins of a blowout football game, just garbage time. Normally, I’d think we would be seeing more of the young guys, but with the struggles of Stubbs/Valdez, maybe it isn’t such a bad idea to get them as many reps as we can so they can hopefully catch a streak going into October. Of course, the season numbers don’t indicate that either will, but it seems to be that Edgar Renteria had a really crappy season and then ended up being the WS MVP a couple years ago. Just try to keep it in perspective, I know it’s brutal watching Stubbs and Valdez accomplish nothing, but if at first you don’t succeed, try…try again.

      Considering the other teams, only 3 teams have a chance to keep us out of the playoffs right now, Pittsburgh, the Dodgers, and the Brewers, only talking record-wise. Teams with worse records can’t catch us. I like that.

      What I don’t like is, this is the time of season where we should be in cruise control, essentially. Everything should pretty much be set, no problems anywhere. But, Cueto struggling. Votto still no RBI’s since he’s been back. Stubbs is Stubbs. Team offense struggling some. Chapman out. Cozart out. Not dire concerns, granted. But, not where you want your team come this time in the season.

Comments are closed.

About Chad Dotson

Blame Chad for creating this mess. Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds" is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad's musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

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2012 Reds, Game Thread

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