2012 Reds

Midseason Prediction Review: Lineup

As you may remember, back in the spring, I did a position-by-position preview for the Reds. In the interest of accountability (and to give us something to talk about during the All-Star break), I thought it would be nice to look at how I’ve done so far. I’ll do the lineup today and the pitching staff tomorrow. Enjoy.

Catcher
Predicted WAR: 3.5
Predicted Slash Line: .270/.360/.360 (RH), .265/.325/.440 (DM)
WAR Pace: 2.3
Current Slash Line: .276/.356/.363 (RH), .214/.296/.293 (DM)
Comments: I couldn’t have called Ryan Hanigan any better (seriously, I missed his OPS by .001). He’s been exactly what he’s expected to be. Devin Mesoraco has been a different story. Though, perhaps if there is one place where I should be forgiven for missing a call it is with the rookie catcher. There are some positive signs, though. Mes is walking at a good rate and his BABIP is probably unsustainably bad (that is, he’s bound to have more hits fall in). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the catching tandem come closer to my 3.5 WAR projection than the current pace suggests.

First Base
Predicted WAR: 7.0
Predicted Slash Line: .310/.415/.550
WAR Pace: 9.7
Current Slash Line: .348/.471/.617
Comments: Everyone who thought Joey Votto was going to be better than his MVP season and make a run at the doubles record, please standup. I don’t know what to say about him. Joey Votto, he’s real and he’s spectacular.

Second Base
Predicted WAR: 4.0
Predicted Slash Line: .275/.330/.475
WAR Pace: 4.3
Current Slash Line: .280/.322/.428
Comments: I’m doing pretty well here. Brandon Phillips isn’t slugging quite like I thought he would, but he did have that injury at the beginning of the year. Phillips has really been very good this year, and given the hit his production took when he was hurt, I wouldn’t be surprised if he made my prediction look too conservative by the end of the year. Phillips seems to be having a slightly late peak.

Shortstop
Predicted WAR: 2.5
Predicted Slash Line: .270/.310/.400
WAR Pace: 3.5
Current Slash Line: .252/.298/.409
Comments: I’m feeling pretty good about this one. Zack Cozart seems to be who I thought he was except that he’s been a little better defensively (that is to say he’s been very good when I thought he would just be good). Now, if only Dusty would bat him seventh, where he belongs.

Third Base
Predicted WAR: 3.5
Predicted Slash Line: .270/.340/.430 (SR), .260/.330/.440 (TF)
WAR Pace: 2.1
Current Slash Line: .178/.241/.302 (SR), .278/.345/.556 (TF)
Comments: Well, I didn’t do so great here, did I? I was one of a small camp who thought Scott Rolen wasn’t totally done. So much for that. I also didn’t think Todd Frazier would get much playing time. Wrong again. I don’t think anyone saw this kind of performance coming from Frazier, but it’s salvaged third base for the Reds. Rolen has actually been worth -0.5 WAR, so if the Reds wise up and play Frazier everyday, he could easily better the 2.1 WAR the Reds are currently on pace to get from third.

Left Field
Predicted WAR: 2.0
Predicted Slash Line: .260/.320/.450 (CH), .250/.315/.400 (RL)
WAR Pace: 2.8
Current Slash Line: .239/.311/.478 (RL) .268/.310/.390 (CH)
Comments: Basically, Ryan Ludwick has been who I thought Chris Heisey would be and vice versa. In any case, the results so far are roughly what I expected. I don’t know if I believe Ludwick will keep this up, though.

Center Field
Predicted WAR: 3.5
Predicted Slash Line: .255/.330/.425
WAR Pace: 1.0
Current Slash Line: .215/.286/.367
Comments: Boy, Drew Stubbs has just been awful. He hasn’t been Rolen awful, but that’s faint praise if ever there was. Here’s the thing though: his numbers shouldn’t be this bad. He’s striking out less. He’s hitting more ground balls and fewer fly balls, but some how, his BABIP is down (that is almost impossible ground balls have a much higher BABIP than fly balls). So, really, we should expect some improvement in these numbers. I know I’ve always been a Stubbs defender, but this looks like an awful lot of bad luck to me. I guess we’ll see.

Right Field
Predicted WAR: 5.0
Predicted Slash Line: .270/.350/.500
WAR Pace: 2.5
Current Slash Line: .249/.326/.505
Comments: A bit off here. What’s really hurting Jay Bruce‘s WAR prediction is defense. I thought Bruce would rebound and derive some serious value from his fielding, instead, he’s continued to slump. There have been some serious misplays in right this year. It’s disappointing from someone who looked so fabulous a few years ago. There has been more consistency from Bruce this year on offense (he’s had only one really bad slump and only one really serious tear), which is nice, I guess. What would be really nice is if he could continue to avoid slumps, but still have those weeks of transcendence. We’ll keep an eye out.

Conclusion
Not bad overall. This team hasn’t been quite as good as I expected offensively, but much of that comes from those first few weeks when no one except Votto was doing anything. Except for third and center, I feel pretty good about my guesses. I’ll check back in after the Reds win the World Series to see how I did for the entire season. Pitchers tomorrow.

45 thoughts on “Midseason Prediction Review: Lineup

  1. Is Cf a higher priority as it is ‘up the middle’ and Cf’ers are allowed to bat at the top of the order and two rookies on the left side of the infield is not a worry? Or do you see a need for a different veteran presence because “….Rolen is totally done.”?

  2. @seat101: Huh? I think I make it pretty clear that Stubbs looks unlucky to me. Though, I wouldn’t argue with trading for an OF of any kind. I don’t really buy into rookie panic except that they are a little more unpredictable. Todd Frazier seems to be a solid baseball player. He’s not going to slug like this forever, but he’s better than Rolen and probably more than adequate at third. If you asked me, week spots on the club right now (assuming Rolen disappears, unlikely as that is) are LF/CF and the bench.

  3. @Jason Linden:

    Thanks for quick response. Let’s assume, arguendo, there are no major worries (i am not panicked, more like deeply concerned) with the rookie left side, and that Rolen stinks off the bench, does then the bench become more important to fix than the outfield? In other words what do think the Reds prioities shoud be. I am not looking to arge, but to learn honest!

  4. Nice Job recapping!! Walt, could you please make a move for someone, anyone, I’m dying of boredom here in this all star week. Ok, not anyone……….

    I just don’t see Jocketty trading for anyone who bats right handed and plays outfield. I think we are going to get a ho hum left handed outfielder, Daniel Nava maybe?

    Being a Reds fan at the trade deadline is like being 8 years old at Christmas and expecting the 1990 Upper Deck complete set of baseball cards, and you get a Cubs T-Shirt.

  5. Nice analysis. Moving forward, you have to expect a slight regression from SS and 1B, but maintaining wouldn’t shock me either. I would expect progression from Bruce, Mez, and 3B/CF (in the aggregate via different personnel).

    This team is solid. Maybe not poised to go on a tear (barring a trade), but the division race should make for an interesting 2nd half.

    • I am not sure if we should expect much regression from SS and 1B. It is not as if Votto went on an absolute tear for the entire first half (he had a slow start). And a lot of Cozart’s WAR comes from his D. I am optimistic that Cozart will snap out of his current slump and continue to play great D.

      Nice analysis.Moving forward, you have to expect a slight regression from SS and 1B, but maintaining wouldn’t shock me either. I would expect progression from Bruce, Mez, and 3B/CF (in the aggregate via different personnel).

      This team is solid.Maybe not poised to go on a tear (barring a trade), but the division race should make for an interesting 2nd half.

      • I am not sure if we should expect much regression from SS and 1B.It is not as if Votto went on an absolute tear for the entire first half (he had a slow start).And a lot of Cozart’s WAR comes from his D.I am optimistic that Cozart will snap out of his current slump and continue to play great D.

        What slump is Cozart in? He had a terrible May. He’s been good in July.

        • Yeah, I suppose he snapped out of it a while ago. I would not be surprised if he had a similar second half.

          What slump is Cozart in?He had a terrible May.He’s been good in July.

        • Yeah, I suppose he snapped out of it a while ago.I would not be surprised if he had a similar second half.

          Similar to his entire first half, right? I’d be very surprised if he put up July type numbers the rest of the year. He should be able to stay about the same, I’d think.

        • Right. I would expect that he will stay on track defensively and offensively. Hopefully he will avoid another big slump.

          Similar to his entire first half, right?I’d be very surprised if he put up July type numbers the rest of the year.He should be able to stay about the same, I’d think.

  6. @myers2042: If I ever got a Cubs T-shirt it would prove I wasn’t needed there and I would immediately run away from home….and leave the shirt behind.

  7. Nice review, Votto is ridiculous. But anyways, are we still grading the Sean Marshall trade? Surely we can get another poll going, like who people like that the Reds have been linked to like Juan Pierre, Shane Victorino, Carlos Quentin, or Denard Span, as many seem to like.

  8. @myers2042: I don’t know that Nava seems particularly Ho Hum to me, he’s got a .370 OBP, and had a .411 OBP in the minors. Seems more or less like exactly the table-setter than the Reds need.

    Also, we definitely DON’T need another right handed hitter. We only have two lefties on a roster of 13 position players as is, and most pitchers are RH. We definitely need at least one more lefty to hit, preferably two.

    The Red Sox and Reds could be a match, because the Sox starting pitching has been so terrible. Nava is old (29) but has 5 more years of team control, so could be a solution for the Reds for at least his prime.

    But would you be willing to give up any of our starters for him? I can’t see that happening. Our pitching prospects aren’t really close enough to help the Sox this year. Would you be willing to give up Bailey or Leake for Nava and one of the Sox better pitching prospects?

    The other option the Red Sox have is Cody Ross. They have Carl Crawford and Ellsbury coming back from the DL soon, so they have some serious shuffling to do. Ross is that RH power bat that most people seem to want, and he would at least probably get Phillips back to the leadoff spot.

  9. I could also see the Reds trading Stubbs, like the Cards did Rasmus last year. I’m sure that they are getting frustrated with his decline, and he seems like a candidate for the proverbial “change of scenery.”

    Now whether they would trade him for a different center fielder, or just put Heisey there as good enough and hope to get a corner guy for him, I don’t know.

    It’s not likely, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

    • I could also see the Reds trading Stubbs, like the Cards did Rasmus last year.I’m sure that they are getting frustrated with his decline, and he seems like a candidate for the proverbial “change of scenery.”

      Now whether they would trade him for a different center fielder, or just put Heisey there as good enough and hope to get a corner guy for him, I don’t know.

      It’s not likely, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

      Rasmus was a prime player when dealt. Yes, both he and Stubbs could be said to have disappointing years, but Stubbs and Rasmus shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath. Rasmus is a really good player who had an off year last year (but his off year was an OPS+ of 101 at the time of the trade).

      That’s why Rasmus brought a return. Stubbs won’t bring much.

  10. Thanks Myer for a good chuckle, Cubs Tshirt and all.

    I look at Bruce … Didn’t Yogi say something about hitting and thinking being mutually exclusive, in a funny way? Bruce’s expressions look like he’s over his head, and he’s not! He’s down deep good and just needs to accept that.

    I’d be curious about your thoughts about WAR on Dusty. I put him at -5.

  11. Wasn’t LaRuSa’ s antipathy towards Rasmus a factor? Didn’t that make him someone the Cards had to dump?

    • @Racine Red: drew stubbs is colby rasmus’s 3rd highest comp per baseball reference for what it’s worth.

      Wow. That is shocking to me. They really are not similar, at least in my opinion. Rasmus put up 132 OPS+ as a 23 year old. Stubbs highest season is 105. Rasmus is at 117 this year, Stubbs at 72.

  12. @seat101: Yeah LaRussa wasn’t particularly high on him. If the Cards didn’t win the NL pennant, I would have said that the Jays got the better part of that deal. Mostly because Jackson was a rental. But since they won the pennant and then the WS, they got their players’ worth. The Jays got a good player in Rasmus.

    • @seat101: Yeah LaRussa wasn’t particularly high on him. If the Cards didn’t win the NL pennant, I would have said that the Jays got the better part of that deal. Mostly because Jackson was a rental. But since they won the pennant and then the WS, they got their players’ worth. The Jays got a good player in Rasmus.

      To me, Rasmus is kind of like Jay Bruce at the plate. And they are both young. He’s not a great player, but he still could become one.

      Talk about catching lightening in a bottle, Jackson pitched well for the Cards, and Rzepinski or whatever his name is was really good for them last year, and he’s very bad this year. The Cards were one game in the regular season from their GM being just killed by everyone for that trade. Of course, it matters not for them because they apparently have a tree on which they grow good hitters.

      • Of course, it matters not for them because they apparently have a tree on which they grow good hitters.

        @Racine Red:

        That tree was planted by , ahem Branch Rickey, I believe……

      • To me, Rasmus is kind of like Jay Bruce at the plate. And they are both young. He’s not a great player, but he still could become one.

        I don’t know about that. I can sort of see it, and Rasmus is having a big year this year. But his big year is a Bruce down year it seems. Rasmus was mostly terrible last year.

        • I don’t know about that.I can sort of see it, and Rasmus is having a big year this year.But his big year is a Bruce down year it seems. Rasmus was mostly terrible last year.

          But Rasmus’ 2010 is better than any of Bruce’s seasons. And this year, he had an awful start; I would not be surprised if he finishes with a 125+ OPS+. Also, last year, he was terrible/horrible/etc with the Jays, but not with the Cards.

          It’s definitely too early to be sure on these guys, but if you offered me Rasmus or Bruce, I wouldn’t be sure which one to take.

  13. Jason, you say that Stubbs’s BABIP is down, but maybe he was lucky before, not unlucky now. His BABIP was .343 last year, or well above the league average, which I understand is around .290. His BABIP is .273 this year, or closer to league average than last year. (It was .330 in 2010.)

    Bruce’s BABIP is only .267, and people forget that he is by one full year the youngest guy among the starters, so I expect him to have a good second half. His OPS is only .731 versus lefties (.869 against righties), so we’ll see if he sits sometimes against the tougher lefties.

    I wish they would figure out that Ondrusek isn’t very good.

    • Jason, you say that Stubbs’s BABIP is down, but maybe he was lucky before, not unlucky now.His BABIP was .343 last year, or well above the league average, which I understand is around .290.His BABIP is .273 this year, or closer to league average than last year.(It was .330 in 2010.)

      Bruce’s BABIP is only .267, and people forget that he is by one full year the youngest guy among the starters, so I expect him to have a good second half.His OPS is only .731 versus lefties (.869 against righties), so we’ll see if he sits sometimes against the tougher lefties.

      I wish they would figure out that Ondrusek isn’t very good.

      You’re singing my tune on Ondrusek. He seems like a nice guy, and I don’t dislike him, but I’d like him a lot better being a high-leverage reliever for the Bats.

      Who would Bruce sit in favor of? His OPS vs lefties is probably better than the other guys’ OPS vs lefties. (No, I haven’t looked it up.)

      Bruce is one of those guys, that if he just had less talent, no one would say a thing about him. But the fact (or fiction?) that he doesn’t get as much out of his talent as he should will leave everyone frustrated. He still has a chance to get a lot better because of his age, but at this point I think it’s about even money that this is who he is permanently.

  14. @Racine Red: And if what I’m seeing out of Bruce turns out to be who he ends up being as far as in his career, I’ll take it. Maybe he’ll never be a super-star but he’s a very good ballplayer and not a bad guy either. And he’s still young enough that he could explode for 3, 4, 6 seasons or so.

    • @Racine Red: And if what I’m seeing out of Bruce turns out to be who he ends up being as far as in his career, I’ll take it. Maybe he’ll never be a super-star but he’s a very good ballplayer and not a bad guy either. And he’s still young enough that he could explode for 3, 4, 6 seasons or so.

      That’s interesting. I would disagree though. My reasoning is that if this is what Bruce is, then he’s about say a 118 OPS+ with above average defense (I’m not sure what to make of his defense at this point, honestly).
      And while this would be great for a SS, it’d be only what, maybe 10% above league average for a corner OF? (I really don’t know, it could be more or less…)

      If he were going to be a 130 OPS+ guy, I’d take that. But 118 just seems too disappointing for me. I’d consider it to be a somewhat above average RF, as opposed to “very good”. Maybe we’re not that far apart here, I’m not sure.

  15. @Big Ed: You can calculate a player’s expected BABIP based on the types of balls they are putting in play. Stubbs has an xBABIP of .342 this year, which is to say that he has hit into some bad luck/good defense so far.

    Last year his xBABIP was .344, or pretty much exactly what his actual BABIP was. Like Jason said, he is a guy who should have a high BABIP, because of his speed and ground ball tendencies. They just aren’t finding holes so far this year.

    • @Big Ed: You can calculate a player’s expected BABIP based on the types of balls they are putting in play.Stubbs has an xBABIP of .342 this year, which is to say that he has hit into some bad luck/good defense so far.

      Last year his xBABIP was .344, or pretty much exactly what his actual BABIP was.Like Jason said, he is a guy who should have a high BABIP, because of his speed and ground ball tendencies.They just aren’t finding holes so far this year.

      I’m assuming that xBABIP takes into account grounders/fly balls/line drives. Has anyone done an xBABIP where they take into account how hard the ball is hit? Is that data even available? It wouldn’t be perfect, of course, but in general (maybe not for Stubbs or other fast guys) if you hit the ball hard on the ground, it’s got some chance to be a hit, but if you don’t, it’s got nearly no chance.

      Currently, my understanding of why FIP is supposed to work is that there is a high correlation between pitchers that strike out a lot of batters and pitchers that get a lot of weakly hit balls. But that’s not always true, for example, I’d bet Cueto gets a lot of weakly hit balls and strikes out very few.

    • @Big Ed: You can calculate a player’s expected BABIP based on the types of balls they are putting in play.Stubbs has an xBABIP of .342 this year, which is to say that he has hit into some bad luck/good defense so far.

      Last year his xBABIP was .344, or pretty much exactly what his actual BABIP was.Like Jason said, he is a guy who should have a high BABIP, because of his speed and ground ball tendencies.They just aren’t finding holes so far this year.

      It’s strange, if you make contact and the ball finds a hole you’re a great hitter, if you make contact and hit the ball a long way for it to get caught with a tremendous diving catch… you were incompetent and an easy out. I think Stubbs, like Homer Bailey, is always underrated by Reds fans who want to hate him.

      Something that concerns me with Stubbs is that he has been walking less, which had quietly been a big part of his game and his OBP for the last few years. He’s striking out less but he’s also walking less and taking fewer pitches.

  16. @Racine Red: Are you purely looking at offense? Seems like an awkward comparison…offensively, Rasmus’s 2010 was technically the best, but a wRC+ of 129 isn’t really much different than 122, 116, or 117. And Bruce has been far more consistent. Looking solely at OPS+ is pretty ineffective. Bruce’s WAR was a full point higher than Rasmus’s bWAR or fWAR.

    Of course, it’s pretty hard to rely on baseball-reference’s WAR stats anyway when dWAR can be tricked into having Brett Lawrie as the highest WAR in all of MLB, based on a dWAR of 3.6…

    • @Racine Red: Are you purely looking at offense?Seems like an awkward comparison…offensively, Rasmus’s 2010 was technically the best, but a wRC+ of 129 isn’t really much different than 122, 116, or117.And Bruce has been far more consistent.Looking solely at OPS+ is pretty ineffective.Bruce’s WAR was a full point higher than Rasmus’s bWAR or fWAR.

      Of course, it’s pretty hard to rely on baseball-reference’s WAR stats anyway when dWAR can be tricked into having Brett Lawrie as the highest WAR in all of MLB, based on a dWAR of 3.6…

      I really can’t get into defensive metrics—yes, I was looking only at offense.

  17. @Racine Red: Never forget that people “playing” around with derivatives based on derivatives went a long way towards getting our country (and the world for that matter) into the economic morass it is in now…..

    A good deal of skepticism is in order when one starts looking ratios that start out with xABC and the like in front of them because they are another step down the road from a ratio that was based (often) on another ratio and thinking that that may be more convoluted than clearly based on provable data.

  18. As I was watching the game on Sunday, I noticed an approach and batting stroke by Phillips in the 4th & 6th innings when Phillips lead off the inning that just looked very natural and comfortable for him. I did some checking on his historical results and found that Phillip’s results and production are inverse to the number of outs when he comes to the plate. His best performance is when there are 0 or 1 outs and his worst performance is when there are 1 or 2 outs. This trend seemed to hold true for every year since he joined the Reds. With the number of AB included in the past 7 years, that seems to be more than a statistical anomaly. If this is true, then the argument for Phillips leading off rather than hitting cleanup becomes even stronger.

  19. More on Bruce: if you look purely offensively, it seems to me that Bruce is 13th among corner OFs this year. Given that there are 32 corner OFs in the NL, that puts him a bit above average. That’s right about what I would have guessed, and it still makes me think he’s a disappointment, although of course still pretty good, and very good for the dollar.

  20. While I understand the theory, xBABIP is a bit esoteric for my taste. The idea of hitting is to put the sweet part of the bat on the ball, as often as possible. Joey Votto is excellent at it; Wilson Valdez, not so much. Stubbs is on the Wilson Valdez end of the spectrum. His swinging strikes percentage has always been above the league average, and the fact that a guy swings and misses a lot should be correlated with his ability to hit the ball on the sweet spot–if you can’t hit the ball, period, then it stands to reason that you aren’t going to hit it on the sweet spot very often, either. (Especially with Stubbs, who has a reasonably smooth swing.)

    The other thing about Stubbs is that his “strike-out looking” percentage this year is 35%, compared to a league average of 25%. (We’ve probably all noticed this by observation, as well.) That number has risen from 28% in 2010. I deem that to be a “cluelessness” indicator, which is really my main point about Stubbs. He just isn’t comfortable hitting major league pitching. If you could spot him for about 300 ABs while avoiding the guys with the best stuff, then he could produce decent numbers. But I think he is clueless against the top quarter of major league pitchers.

    • While I understand the theory, xBABIP is a bit esoteric for my taste. The idea of hitting is to put the sweet part of the bat on the ball, as often as possible.

      @LWBlogger:
      @Big Ed:

      I guess I don’t understand what your complaints are about xBABIP, as it seems pretty straight forward to me. BABIP just says “the league average on balls in play is X, so players will get close to that.” It’s pretty crude, and we know that players hit the ball differently.

      The model of xBABIP that I use (from fangraphs) includes LD%, GB%, FB%, IFFB%, and a couple other ratios, and basically takes the league average on each of those types of hits, which is obviously a lot more accurate. If a guy is hitting a lot of line drives and not getting a lot of hits, that’s weirder than a guy hitting a lot of flyballs and not getting a lot of hits, right?

      So the only real argument against it is that you think maybe that Stubbs doesn’t “get the sweet part of the bat on the ball” and that his line drives and groundballs are weaker than other peoples. But last year, his xBABIP perfectly predicted his actual BABIP, so that argument doesn’t seem to hold much water to me. If he consistantly underperformed the expectation, then sure, maybe there’s something going on.

      But right now I have to go with Jason. Stubbs is a guy that when he makes contact (which isn’t enough of course) he hits a line drive or a ground ball 70% of the time, and he has a lot of speed. He is getting significantly fewer hits than the average person doing that, and so I expect it to even out.

  21. I know I’ve always been a Stubbs defender, but this looks like an awful lot of bad luck to me.

    Bad luck? Numbers don’t lie. He’s simply not that good. Numbers have been going down every year. He’s also batting in front of Votto! Hello! Everyone gets it except Dusty.

  22. I struggle a little with the predictive and expectant stats (usuaully the xABC stats). I also struggle quite a lot with defensive metrics. The expectant/predictive stats are often better indicators of future performance but there are always exceptions and in some cases the exceptions are consistent from year-to-year (i.e. Greg Maddux ERA vs FIP and xFIP)… As for defensive metrics they are getting better but there are so many times that they are greatly inconsistent from year-to-year for a player and/or they stray wildly from the “eye test” of most scouts. There are issues with using just stats in evaluating any player, although ignoring them is ignoring what can be a valuable tool. What’s best is when the stats can say something and scouts.

  23. Stubbs had a ~.350 OBP as the #2 hitter before getting hurt, then after taking the days off for an injury he played a few games before going into that 0/32 streak. Lets see how he does after resting during the All Star Break. His numbers haven’t been steadily going down – he started off slowly in April, hit well, then his numbers dropped off a cliff after he got injured.

  24. Figured I should add my predicted slash-lines from the beginning of the year here. I sent these predictions along with some analysis to either Jason or Chad but I don’t recall who at the beginning of the season:

    Votto – .306/.410/.545 (OPS off by -133!)
    BP – . 280/.334/.433 (OPS off by +017)
    Rolen – .267/.331/.431 (OPS off by +219!!!)
    Cozart – .261/.312/.403 (OPS off by +008)
    Mesoraco – .259/.325/.437 (OPS off by +173!!!)
    Hannigan – .281/.353/.370 (OPS off by +004)
    Ludwick – .251/.321/.417 (OPS off by -051)
    Heisey – .262/.322/.449 (OPS off by +061)
    Stubbs – .252/.330/.403 (OPS off by +080)
    Bruce – .268/.346/.469 (OPS off by +016)

    Jason is clearly better at this prediction thing than I am 8)

  25. @wally mo: I’m a stubbs supporter and even if I wasn’t, the vast difference in his actual BABIP vs his xBABIP is enough that I can expect he’ll be at least somewhat better the 2nd half. This is also confirmed by what my eyes tell me in that Stubbs hit a lot of “at ’em” balls and was robbed a few times earlier in the year. I think where the eye-test is failing for a lot of people is during his slump he’s hit a lot of pop-ups, lazy-flies, and easy-grounders. They are forgetting some of the balls he hit harder earlier in the year.

    I think by the end of the year, Stubbs will be closer the the “slash-line” I predicted for him above than his current “slash-line”

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