2012 Reds / Take Five

Take Five: Reds starting pitchers after 13 rotations

The Reds have cycled through their pitching rotation thirteen times. Four of the five starters haven’t missed a game. Mike Leake was skipped once. (We need to acknowledge and be grateful that the Reds starters have been remarkably healthy so far this year.) The table below shows how the Reds’ rotation has performed (a) relative to the National League average, (b) in relation to each other, and (c) how they have pitched the last month. The numbers in parentheses indicate the performance after eight full rotations, the last time this Take Five summary was posted.

[table id=34 /]


1. Overall, the Reds starting pitching is a little below league average in ERA, FIP, K/9 and SwStr%. Only Johnny Cueto is better than average.

2. Overall, the last five trips through the rotation were about the same as the first eight. Leake and Bailey have been better recently, Arroyo and Latos worse. Johnny Cueto has been about the same.

3. Homer Bailey is the only Reds starter above average in SwStr%. Mat Latos is the only Reds starter above average in K/9. The Reds do not have a starting staff of power arms (not exactly a news flash). The bullpen, that’s another matter.

4. Some statistical truths confirmed: the win-loss records are weakly related to underlying fundamental stats, and the BABIP has been moving toward the league average, as it should. For most pitchers, their luck eventually evens out.

7 thoughts on “Take Five: Reds starting pitchers after 13 rotations

  1. Bronson has become the two starter when everyone expected him to be the four, and Mat has done the opposite. Leake looks ok in every category except ERA. Maybe I just like Leake, but I always feel like he gets less help than other pitchers from the other 8 guys. Bailey has turned into a good 3 starter. It will be weird relying on him in a potential NLDS game, but whatever.

    The Reds have average starting pitching and average hitting, but since no team can seem to have really high quality stats on both sides of the ball, that’s why the Reds are 10 over .500.

  2. Can we get a summary of run support as well? The records were the biggest surprise to me. It’s deceptively bad for Bronson, even though I feel he’s pitched as an over 500 pitcher.

  3. Looking at the team stats as a whole, the peripheral stats do not indicate any regression which is great news.

    Our HR/FB % is 11.6. Average is 10%, but it is to be expected given our home park.

    Our ERA ranking relative to the rest of the league is not park adjusted; so you should expect the Reds actual ERA/FIP to be a few spots worse than their true talent performance on a neutral field. Our pitching will all else being equal be better on the road than at home, so this bodes well for the rest of the season.

  4. FIP and xFIP recommend Leake a lot more than is suggested by his 2-5 record and 5+ ERA.

  5. Excellent work. It basically affirms what our eyes have been telling us. The pitching and offense are a hair below average, but the defense and bullpen are excellent.

  6. Bottom Line: This rotation is not flashy but consistency is becoming the name of the game.

    The Reds are on pace to have two, perhaps three pitchers (Bailey is right there) toss 200 innings this season. That has not happened since the early 70’s for this team! (Two innings is also a rarity and I don’t think it’s happened since the heyday of Harang and Arroyo when the rest of the rotation consisted of humdingers like Belisle, Lohse, Milton, and/or Mr. Pickles – Claussen.)

    Latos is not far off with a pace for about 190. This rotation reminds me a little of our late 80’s early 90’s crew. Arroyo playing the role of Browning and Cueto as an older more settled Rijo. Latos can be Danny Jackson and Leake can be Jack Armstrong (I am fudging a little as I don’t recall Armstrong and Jackson pitching together). It’s tough to compare though because this rotation is clearly the youngest crop of arms the Reds have had in well over a generation.

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