Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Cincinnati 6
Milwaukee 1

W: B. Arroyo (2-1)
L: M. Estrada (0-2)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–How about Bronson Arroyo? He continues to impress. Tonight he went six and two-thirds, allowing one run on six hits. He struck out nine and walked just one. Outstanding.

–Great work by Logan Ondrusek (or “Ondru the Giant,” as coined by Loyal Citizen jmt5887 in the game thread recently). Another inning and a third, no baserunners allowed, and he worked out of a little jam that he inherited in the seventh inning.

–Jay Bruce’s 3-run homer in the fourth inning (his ninth of the season) was one of the longest homers I’ve ever seen in my life. He just destroyed that ball. Murdered it.

–Brandon Phillips had two hits, including a double. Ryan Hanigan had two more hits.

–Miguel Cairo returned to the Reds and promptly doubled in his first at-bat. We’ve missed you Miggy!

NEGATIVES
–Scott Rolen was 0-4. He’s now “hitting” .179/.247/.310 on the year. Let’s keep pretending there’s nothing wrong with him, though.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Just a fun game, and a nice win. The Reds have now won four of five, and 11 of 16. Enjoy it, Reds fans. This is fun.

–Bruce is now hitting .298/.336/.644. He has hit in ten consecutive games, and he’s hitting .405 with six HR and 12 RBI during that span. The kid is something to watch when he’s hot.

–No one saw this coming: Arroyo is 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA. He has struck out 27 and walked only four. That’s good.

–Ryan Hanigan and his .364 on-base percentage should be the leadoff hitter for the Reds.

–Homer Bailey tries to keep the good times rolling tomorrow evening. Fingers are crossed.

74 Responses

  1. mlb

    The Reds really beat themselves today…

    • Garth

      The Reds really beat themselves today…

      I see what you did there.

  2. Matt WI

    Great game. Felt like good things were coming even after the 1-2-3 first when Cozart, Stubbs, and Votto all got good swings on the ball. How good was Cozart’s first AB? How far did Jay Bruce crush that ball? How fun is it to watch Bronson collect 9k’s? How nice was it to not see Rickie Weeks go yard on a Reds pitcher? Love it all. Nice job Reds. Homer… you’re next.

  3. jmt5887

    It was a fun game to listen to. Tomorrow is my 25th birthday. I really hope Homer can keep the streak of wins on my birthday going and make it 4 straight wins.

  4. John

    Fun game to watch. When these guys win, they make it look easy. (Not that they’re playing world beaters right now.)

    Unfortunately, the sad but probably true tale about Rolen is that age and so many injuries have robbed him of his power and a bit of his range at third. It’ll be interesting to see who realizes this first — the team, the player, or the majority of fans.

  5. Sergeant2

    Homer really needs to prove his worth with this next game. The train is starting to pull away from the station, he needs to jump on it now or get left behind.

    • Steve Mancuso

      Homer really needs to prove his worth with this next game. The train is starting to pull away from the station, he needs to jump on it now or get left behind.

      Homer has four quality starts since his first game (first inning) when he gave up four runs. If he goes six innings and three runs tomorrow, I’ll take it.

      • CharlotteNCRedsFan

        Homer has four quality starts since his first game (first inning) when he gave up four runs. If he goes six innings and three runs tomorrow, I’ll take it.

        Agree but 2 runs in 6 innings would go down better. I think if we expect Homer gives the club #4 or #5 starter results, that would be fine. Still think the guy could be a high #3/low #3 starter in the end. IMO his fastball is too straight to ever be a top of the rotation guy but I have been wrong many times before.

        Homer stays consistent and he will more than okay though.

    • The Mad Hatter

      Homer really needs to prove his worth with this next game. The train is starting to pull away from the station, he needs to jump on it now or get left behind.

      Four quality starts in a row and if you take away the first inning of his first start his ERA is 2.10. Yep, Homer needs to prove his worth. 🙄

  6. JRose

    The only thing wrong with Rolen is his age…therefore i pretend not

  7. pinson343

    Nice win. In 2010 the Reds won the Central by beating up on the Brewers, Cubs, Astros, and Pirates. It’s not a bad formula. This team has the potential to go further in the playoffs, but now I’m getting way ahead of myself.

    Suddenly the bench isn’t so bad, except for the absence of a LHed bat.

  8. pinson343

    What do people think of the Hamels 5 game suspension ? Suspending a starting pitcher for 5 games doesn’t mean much, but I think the suspension is dumb anyway. When a pitcher is ejected from a game because an umpire feels he’s throwing at a guy, he doesn’t get suspended. And everyone in baseball knows that pitchers intentionally plunk hitters all the time. Hamels didn’t throw at his head or behind him. In effect Hamels got suspended for admitting that he threw at Harper. It’s a “don’t tell” policy.

    • shadow32

      What do people think of the Hamels 5 game suspension ?Suspending a starting pitcher for 5 games doesn’t mean much, but I think the suspension isdumb anyway. When a pitcher is ejected from a game because an umpire feels he’s throwing at a guy, he doesn’t get suspended. And everyone in baseball knows that pitchers intentionally plunk hitters all the time. Hamels didn’t throw at his head or behind him. In effect Hamels got suspended for admitting that he threw at Harper. It’s a “don’t tell” policy.

      MLB had to do something because of the coverage surrounding what happened. It’s a symbolic suspension and obviously doesn’t have much of an effect on anything. As far as the incident itself is concerned, Hamels hitting Harper was pretty idiotic in the first place since the kid himself did nothing to deserve it. I loved that Harper got some redemption in stealing home – he showed his toughness and intelligence. The young dude is fun to watch. We have tickets for the Nats-Reds series and I’m excited to see him play.

      Hamels got his repayment by getting hit in his next at bat. Everybody’s even, back to the game.

    • CharlotteNCRedsFan

      @pinson343:

      In effect Hamels got suspended for admitting that he threw at Harper. It’s a “don’t tell” policy.

      That is the key, isn’t. If everybody spoke what was in their head, we would have bean ball wars all the time. Keep it to yourself next time. It was not a smart move and he is now going to pay for it. I’m on-board with it.

  9. pinson343

    CoCo has been having a tough time since becoming Toronto’s closer. It was a good break that he turned down the Reds offers to re-sign him. (Even with the Madson injury.)

  10. CI3J

    All I can say is: I told you Arroyo was going to bounce back this year.

    Where are all those people who wanted to trade Arroyo for a sack of baseballs? The dude is easily at worst our fourth best pitcher. (Including Chapman in that equation.)

  11. eric nyc

    So when Bray returns (any news on that? feel like we haven’t heard anything about him in a while) and we get closer to the All Star break, the whole organization has to feel a lot more comfortable knowing Ondrusek can easily slide into the 8th inning setup role when it’s time to move Chapman to the rotation. I hope we can keep Ondrusek in that role for the life of at least Marshall’s contract, but even if we have other plans he might have some serious trade value at some point as a potential closer. What’s his contract status? This bullpen is beyond ridiculous right now. Sam LeCure’s the worst pitcher in it and he could be a 4th or 5th starter for half a dozen teams in the majors. Imagine if this rotation can continue to pitch the way it has recently but with Aroldis Chapman taking either Bailey or Leake’s place. Arroyo’s pitching above his ability it seems, but he also just feels locked in this year. I don’t think he can keep his ERA below 3.00 all year but I wouldn’t be surprised if it hovered right around there the way he’s throwing. If everyone stays healthy this could be something to watch…

    Oh yeah, and I don’t know if anyone’s thought of this before but maybe we should think about batting Bruce in the cleanup spot? Just brainstorming.

  12. icee82

    There is a lot to like about this team. However last season we had two holes offensively…shortstop and left field. Cozart fixed the offensive woes at shortstop and left field was never really fixed. The left field problem has reared its ugly head yet again and now we are having offensive woes at third base. Heisey is hitting .222 and Ludwick is not even hitting his weight at .185. Why are we wasting Todd Frazier on the bench and he is only hitting .389? Why not give him a couple of starts in left field? I know it is crowded in left field but we need production. I don’t think that anyone expects Frazier to continue hitting at this clip but at least give him some starts and plug one of the holes in the offense. He could play a couple of days per week in left field and a couple of days at third base to spell Rolen until he rediscovers his stroke. If Dusty believes in playing the hot guy, how can he allow Frazier to sit on the bench? Could starting Frazier in left field be another George Foster move? I don’t know the answer but what do we have to lose?

  13. RiverCity Redleg

    @icee82: Thom Brennaman mentioned that exact same thing last night and I agree 100%. Give Frazier some ABs!

  14. lookatthathat

    @RiverCity Redleg: @icee82: Just when I start to think he’s the largest sportscasting idiot in the world, he says something that I agree with.

  15. sezwhom1

    You know when Chris Welsh and Thom Brennaman insinuate Todd Frazier should not only see more PT at 3B but also LF, things aren’t good with the current situation. No complaints on Rolen’s “D” but it’s brutal watching the man try to hit. I’d be stunned to see anything over .225 with 10 HR’s by September. As for LF, I like Heisey and it’s nice to see him finally get some starts but he can’t hit the offspeed pitch. The “left side” needs a fix. All in all though, more positives than not. Gotta love the pitching. Memo to Dusty: bat Bruce Cleanup. Jeez.

    • TC

      No one saw this coming: Arroyo is 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA. He has struck out 27 and walked only four.

      Some did. Throughout the winter there were some loyalists (myself not included unfortunately) who said Arroyo would bounce back this year. I gave the politically correct “I think he’ll do better” but there were some (I think pinson343 was one) who was optimistic about Arroyo.

  16. 67stats33eyes

    Alumni Report:

    Volquez– 42.1 INN, 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 38 K, 22 BB, 30 H

    the man is having a heck of a season so far —

    Encarnacion– .279/.336/.595/.931 w/ 8 2Bs, 9 HRs, 25 RBI, 4 SBs, in 125 PAs

    wouldn’t mind those numbers behind Votto, of course we’d need to be in the AL so he could DH

    • dn4192

      Alumni Report:Volquez– 42.1 INN, 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 38 K, 22 BB, 30 Hthe man is having a heck of a season so far — Encarnacion– .279/.336/.595/.931 w/ 8 2Bs, 9 HRs, 25 RBI, 4 SBs, in 125 PAswouldn’t mind those numbers behind Votto, of course we’d need to be in the AL so he could DH

      How many of Edisons starts have come at home? I think all but one. As for Edwin, great he hits, but lets remember he also has to play the field…

  17. 67stats33eyes

    …And my favorite weird stat line of the day…

    Keppinger– .311/.328/.459/.787 — 19 H and 2 BB in 64 PAs — It’s like the guy is from an entirely different era

  18. CharlotteNCRedsFan

    Correction high #3/ low #2 starter

  19. rightsaidred

    @67stats33eyes: “heck of season” relatively speaking. Above average otherwise. He is still the same Edinson.

    He is barely averaging 6 IP per start and I doubt he finishes above that bench mark. Both his K and BB rate are down as Petco has helped his phobia of the bat contacting the ball but at 1-2 he is still factoring into that all important column very little.

  20. RC

    Hamels got suspended for being dumb, with a side order of not really having any *reason* for throwing at the kid, arrogantly though he may have behaved at times.

    And in a day when some power hitters stand virtually on top of the plate – and glare at the pitcher if he throws a pitch three inches inside – not allowing a guy to try to back a hitter off the plate a little is a pretty fundamental change from what the game was “back in the day”.

  21. Johnu1

    @pinson343: On the Hamels thing, I’d say 0 games for doing it and another 5 for being so stupid as to tell the press. That should have stayed in the locker room. Probably did, but some scribe didn’t know that what is said there, should stay there. The olden days, scribes knew this.

  22. eric nyc

    @Johnu1: Agreed. No reason Hamels had to tell the press about it. It happens all the time. Harper probably had it coming – Welcome to the division, kid. But you’ve gotta be pretty dumb to go out and tell a reporter. They HAVE to suspend you if you do that.

  23. Johnu1

    Just watched the condensed version of the game — since I didn’t know who won (odd, huh?) it was fun. Anybody get a tape on Bruce’s dinger?

    As well, I think the Reds would have been better served to put a roof on GABP. That’s nice that the game is always “on.”

    • zippy

      As well, I think the Reds would have been better served to put a roof on GABP. That’s nice that the game is always “on.”

      I can’t understand why almost every stadium doesn’t have a roof by now. I assume the additional cost of the roof is significantly less than the long-term revenues gained from ticket and concession sales on bad weather days. And no makeup games or double-headers ever need to be scheduled. Not to mention the fact that out-of-towners can purchase tickets without having to worry about sitting through 2 hour rain delays and possibly a postponed game. Yes, the Brewers have been good lately, but I’m sure the roof has a lot to do with their consistently impressive attendance figures in a small market.

      • dn4192

        I can’t understand why almost every stadium doesn’t have a roof by now. I assume the additional cost of the roof is significantly less than the long-term revenues gained from ticket and concession sales on bad weather days. And no makeup games or double-headers ever need to be scheduled. Not to mention the fact that out-of-towners can purchase tickets without having to worry about sitting through 2 hour rain delays and possibly a postponed game. Yes, the Brewers have been good lately, but I’m sure the roof has a lot to do with their consistently impressive attendance figures in a small market.

        Baseball was never ment to be an indoors sport.

  24. CP

    Regarding Bronson, I remain consistent with my position on Latos’ slow start: it’s a long season; some players will start hot and some will start cold. Bronson has looked a lot better and he can be successful if he keeps his walks down and returns to his career line of 1.2 HR/9.

    But I highly doubt he has suddenly sudden became a < 1 BB/9 pitcher. It just doesn't happen. I'd guess he finishes with an ERA around 4.00 and be thrilled it with it. I'm assuming his walk rate normalizes and his xFIP basically goes back to his historical range of 4.05-4.59 . Not too bad really, but I guess we'll see once the season ends how that'd stack up across the MLB.

    I think it's interesting how the human psyche works. It's far, far easier for fans to understand "bad luck" in baseball, i.e. a hitter hits a line drive right at the CF. It's really difficult to recognize "good luck" when it affects a player. Bronson has given up 9+ hits 3 times in 6 starts, and only given up 8 ER in 17 IP. Does anyone really think that can continue…?

    • dn4192

      Regarding Bronson, I remain consistent with my position on Latos’ slow start: it’s a long season; some players will start hot and some will start cold. Bronson has looked a lot better and he can be successful if he keeps his walks down and returns to his career line of 1.2 HR/9. But I highly doubt he has suddenly sudden became a < 1 BB/9 pitcher. It just doesn’t happen. I’d guess he finishes with an ERA around 4.00 and be thrilled it with it. I’m assuming his walk rate normalizes and his xFIP basically goes back to his historical range of 4.05-4.59 . Not too bad really, but I guess we’ll see once the season ends how that’d stack up across the MLB. I think it’s interesting how the human psyche works. It’s far, far easier for fans to understand “bad luck” in baseball, i.e. a hitter hits a line drive right at the CF. It’s really difficult to recognize “good luck” when it affects a player. Bronson has given up 9+ hits 3 times in 6 starts, and only given up 8 ER in 17 IP. Does anyone really think that can continue…?

      Luck? I can’t believe people still think “luck” has anything to do with sports or such. You are successful by your performance, you are bad because of your performance…Luck is not involved.

  25. eric nyc

    @CP: I just see Bronson having the best control of his pitches as I can remember EVER. He’s dropping his curve ball right on the corner of the plate at 66-68 mph. I don’t know how a big league hitter can even take a swing at that pitch. If he stays healthy I think he could keep with that…Like I said, I think he’ll normalize a bit, but I think he could easily finish the season with a sub 4.00 ERA. I also see him not pushing himself to eat innings the way he has in the past which has gotten him into trouble. He seems much more willing to admit when he’s spent and pull himself out of a game before he can get in trouble, basically taking the decision out of Dusty’s hands. In the past he prided himself as an innings eater and would push for an extra batter or two. Those usually inflated his ER stats. It’s way too early to predict it, but he could be in line for a career year if he stays healthy.

  26. eric nyc

    @Johnu1: Recap said 463 feet. Bruce said he wasn’t sure but he thinks that’s about as far as he’s ever hit a baseball.

  27. Johnu1

    @eric nyc: I actually hit one that far once, in Blooming Grove. It went past the fir trees in left field and down a hill toward a creek. Measured it at close to 500 feet by the time it stopped rolling.

  28. Sultan of Swaff

    The way the Brewers are banged up, anything less than a sweep will be a disappointment.

    • dn4192

      The way the Brewers are banged up, anything less than a sweep will be a disappointment.

      We face Zack G. tomorrow I believe and he is all but lights out in Miluwakee..get tonight and be happy taking 2 out of 3…

  29. Johnu1

    @eric nyc: Bronson will be fine with that pitch if it doesn’t hang. That’s what beats him and he knows it. But he lives by what he does and the consequences are sometimes 3 or 4 HR.
    I hate to use the term “he is what he is,” but that’s what he is … a junkballer.

    • RC

      @RC: Throwing at and backing off aren’t the same thing.

      Agreed, and I don’t think that’s what Hamels was doing last night – heck, I might have respected Hamels a touch more if he’d said that – though it didn’t look like Harper was crowding the plate all that much to me.

      But the back-off pitch does hit a batter fairly often, and once the “warnings” go out, pitchers have to tiptoe around their inside pitches for the rest of the game.

      It’s a lot like what’s going on with the NFL and it’s attempts to control the violence inherent in the game. I understand it, and maybe it needs to happen, but it’s going to change the nature of the game in ways that may (or may not) be fundamentally inmportant. The beanball thing in baseball is arguably not nearly that important, but it’s not *nothing*.

  30. Johnu1

    @RC: Changing the nature of the game ought to be paramount in the minds of pitchers like Hamels who has now “admitted” he threw at the kid to “introduce” him to the big leagues.

    If you don’t want MLB cracking down or micromanaging the game, try to keep this crap out of the public.

    Ballplayers know how the game is played and throwing at Harper for any reason in that situation was immature and will only lead to absurd new umpiring philosophies.

    Bob Gibson plunked a few guys and nobody ever asked him if he did it on purpose. He didn’t advance that information either. Hamels is a fool and that’s what hurts the game — stupidity.

  31. rightsaidred

    Another poster whom I respect floated the following: Forget the Chapman to starting rotation (as in it is not particularly relevant to this proposal).

    When Bray and Masset are back, if they are both 100%, it makes sense to trade one of the many decent releivers on this team for a better LF option.

    Does that seem possible to anyone? How about probable?

  32. Johnu1

    @rightsaidred: Trading middle relief for a LF is about the only logical trade at this point but I doubt teams who are in the “hunt” will be desperate just yet. Usually, shoring up middle or late relief is a concession that you can’t find good rotation stuff so you will settle for the fixable (cheap) alternative.

    All the same, who’s out there playing LF we could get in exchange for Arredondo? If he’s not playing, we already have somebody like that.

    My nickel’s worth of opinion says to bring up a kid and let him get a miracle 11-for-25 start, think he’s a star and hope it’s enough to ignite the rest of the team.

    Sadly, we don’t have much in the minors who is good enough to play LF.

    This dreadfully long reply is presented by a mind that has been making up school songs for Cake Ball High.

  33. George Culver

    Just IMO: better hang on to the pitching you got cause injuries can pop up at any time and you better have extra.

    1. I bet Masset doesn’t appear in a game this year.

    2. I bet Bray is not going to be ready till after the All star break.

    3. I bet there are already players on the 40 man roster who could hit in the bigs now that play the outfield in the minor league system. You know how it goes, just gotta wait your turn. I was surprised that they signed Ludwig for this reason.

    4. I bet Rolen is already tired of being embarrassed at the plate and the time is soon that he will volunteer to sit.

    But who knows?

  34. CP

    @dn4192: Right. We know your position on the subject, and at least it’s remained constant, but denying something that is so glaringly obvious is pretty asinine.

    Bases Loaded, 1 out. Batter A: Hits a line drive that the CF makes diving stop on. Runners don’t advance.

    Batter B: Hits a pop up that falls between CF and SS. 2 Runs score.

    One of these guys was lucky.

    Or maybe you can go back and look at the Bottom of the 4th inning yesterday and check out Bronson Arroyo’s “skill” in inducing C. Izturis to hit a line drive directly at Jay Bruce with runners on 1st and 3rd. 😆

    • Matt WI

      @CP: Bronson’s got that pitch CP. It’s all in the grip.

      Or maybe you can go back and look at the Bottom of the 4th inning yesterday and check out Bronson Arroyo’s “skill” in inducing C. Izturis to hit a line drive directly at Jay Bruce with runners on 1st and 3rd.

      Reply

    • dn4192

      @dn4192: Right. We know your position on the subject, and at least it’s remained constant, but denying something that is so glaringly obvious is pretty asinine. Bases Loaded, 1 out. Batter A: Hits a line drive that the CF makes diving stop on. Runners don’t advance.Batter B: Hits a pop up that falls between CF and SS. 2 Runs score. One of these guys was lucky. Or maybe you can go back and look at the Bottom of the 4th inning yesterday and check out Bronson Arroyo’s “skill” in inducing C. Izturis to hit a line drive directly at Jay Bruce with runners on 1st and 3rd.

      How is any of that “luck”? Luck is a term used by those who have no other way to explain something because numbers don’t support it. Was I “Lucky” when I ran the stop sign this morning and didn’t get hit or hit someone? NO, there just wasn’t anyone else there. Was the tiger pitcher a few years back “unlucky” because the umpire made a bad call at first and cost him a perfect game/no hitter? No, the umpire just blew the call.

      • RC

        Was I “Lucky” when I ran the stop sign this morning and didn’t get hit or hit someone? NO, there just wasn’t anyone else there.

        I have to admit, I’m curious as to what your definition of “luck” is.

      • dn4192

        I have to admit, I’m curious as to what your definition of “luck” is.

        It is a term used by some who have no way through logical thought to explain why something happened. Like, in a casino, was it “luck” I won $50 on my first spin on the slot machine, or was it just that it happened on that spin. There is no such thing as “luck”.

  35. CP

    @zippy: The revenue exceeding additional cost of roof is nice and all, but modern stadiums aren’t typically funded by the owners. It’s the taxpayers funding the stadiums, the owners just get to keep the majority of the $$$.

    The northern teams should all have a roof/retractable dome. I don’t know what Minnesota was thinking, but I think the vast majority of fans probably prefer the outdoor stadiums.

    On the other hand, I think it’s absurd that Paul Brown Stadium or any other football stadium doesn’t have a roof. The stadium is basically only used 8 times a year (especially in the Bengals case, ahem). What a waste.

  36. rightsaidred

    @CP: I agree with the luck premise. That is an obvious factor. However, under your scenario with one out on a shallow pop ‘hit’ how would two runners score?

    It sounds like 3rd Base runner scores and 2nd base runner or 3rd base runner fails to advance without adequate time to tag. Running on a well placed pop up with just 1 out seems unlikely. Make it a 2 out scenario and I am buying!

  37. Johnu1

    @CP: I think another 4-5M bucks would have been worth it long-run for the Reds to have a retractable dome.

    Fans may like the outdoor stadium, but 34,000 of them are OK with what they have at Miller Park and only about 20,000 are happy with what they have at GABP.

    Everybody I’ve talked to say Miller is a great place to see a game and knowing there will be a game is worth it.

    • dn4192

      @CP: I think another 4-5M bucks would have been worth it long-run for the Reds to have a retractable dome. Fans may like the outdoor stadium, but 34,000 of them are OK with what they have at Miller Park and only about 20,000 are happy with what they have at GABP.Everybody I’ve talked to say Miller is a great place to see a game and knowing there will be a game is worth it.

      No way a “roof” on GABP would have been that cheap. You would have been looking at maybe another $20 million and that is without it being to open and close, if you go that route you are looking at an additional $15-20 million on top of that. We have a doomed stadium here in INdy that opens and closes…just the open/close addition was $25 million added to the budget for a stadium that came in at close to $800 million to build. To get an idea of what domed stadiums baseball wise cost you can look at the Marlins new stadium to get an idea of costs. Given Cincy paid for 2 new stadiums, I don’t see the tax payers footing the bill for 2 doomed stadiums.

  38. RC

    It’s hard to think of a sport that involves luck more than baseball. Not only your own luck, but the luck of the guys who do or don’t get on base before you. Heck, Bronson got extermely lucky on a few of those strike calls last night. Line drive out vs. bloop hit. Fair vs. foul. Wind blowing in, wind blowing out. Bad hops. Defensive errors putting runners on base for you to drive in. Morgana. Injuries – your own, your teammates, your opponents. Mis-handled drug tests…

    So many things that happen in baseball are beyond any given player’s control.

  39. Johnu1

    @rightsaidred: On a pop to the short outfield, you either tag and go one base or go halfway and wait. Random chance applies after that. Baserunners should never be the back half of a double play in that situation.

  40. zippy

    I’ve been to Miller a few times. It’s not a great when the roof is closed, but it’s better than sitting in rain and snow. I was living about 100 miles from Milwaukee at the time, and it was nice knowing that my drive would definitely be rewarded with a game, and that the game would start at the scheduled time. I just can’t believe the economics are any different in Ohio.

  41. Johnu1

    @zippy: Yeah, I’d settle for some degree of comfort over ideal atmosphere. I do weary of the excuse in Cincy that “it’s a school night.” As if the only kids in America who go to school are in SW Ohio.

    Reasons for low attendance are pretty well documented and part of it is the nature of the weather. The roof solves all those problems.

  42. CP

    @Johnu1: You’re way, way underestimating the cost of placing a retractable roof on GABP. Adding a roof + making it retractable made the Falcons stadium go up around $185 million (and the cost seems to keep rising). Ask anyone in Hamilton County/City of Cincinnati if they want to pay more taxes.

    Btw, after the Brewers finished in last place in 2002, attendance dropped to a low of 20,993 per game in 2003. Reds had 29k/game that year. Brewers attendance has risen significantly since then, ODDLY coinciding with a run of decent success. 😀

    Reds win consistently=more attendance, regardless of whether they have a roof or not.

    • zippy

      @Johnu1:

      Btw, after the Brewers finished in last place in 2002, attendance dropped to a low of 20,993 per game in 2003.Reds had 29k/game that year.Brewers attendance has risen significantly since then, ODDLY coinciding with a run of decent success.

      Reds win consistently=more attendance, regardless of whether they have a roof or not.

      These things aren’t mutually exclusive. Attendance will increase with success, with or without a roof. It would also increase with a roof, with or without success. Put the two together and you’re into Milwaukee territory.

  43. per14

    dn4192 is in one sense completely wrong and in one completely correct. It is pretty asinine to say that luck is not a factor in baseball. I refer you to Mark Fidyrich’s 1976 season. Or to any number of things.

    But, luck does tend to even out over time and is generally not a factor in a player’s career value. Joe Morgan was not better than Brandon Phillips because he was lucky. He was better because he had more skills. But luck comes and goes and can last an entire game, a month, and sometimes, even an entire season (Mark Fidyrch) which can give the superficial impression someone is better (or worse) than they really are in any one game, month, or sometimes, even an entire season.

  44. RC

    BABiP is a statistical attempt to get a handle on luck as an element in hitting. YMMV on how successful that attempt is, but it is interesting…

  45. renbutler

    The number of games delayed and especially postponed are actually quite few, considering the total number of games played each season.

  46. CP

    @dn4192: There is your problem. You confuse “luck” with “faith” or lack thereof. When sabermetric-oriented fans describe “luck,” they are actually using shorthand for “variance,” which is a mathematical concept.

    You’re either missing a subtle difference or ignorant of stats, which I guess is okay, but you’re making a terrible argument for yourself. There are people that actually do have faith-type belief in luck, particularly among poor gamblers and extremely superstitious people, i.e. they are always play 2-7 offsuit because it’s their “lucky hand.”

    Your “examples” are pretty awful btw and completely irrelevant to the discussion.

  47. Johnu1

    @CP: I buy that. And as for cost, I realize that $4 million won’t get you a fire hydrant … it was understating intentionally without much of a reason to explain.

  48. RiverCity Redleg

    @RC: I have to admit, you’re quickly becoming one of my favorite posters on here. I love the way you slipped Morgana into your arguement.

  49. Jared

    @RC: I don’t think more revised rules against intentionally (or unintentionally) hitting batters would have too big an impact on the game. Any rule changes would conceivably need to include changes to the batters box or something to negate the negative effect on pitchers.

    The reason the whole opinion on justification of throwing at batters is it’s not like I’m a liberal in the area. I want the guys to be safe but I’m definitely no zealot, and the fights are my favorite part of hockey. But a 95mph fastball to the head is arguably more dangerous, and the batter is defenseless. The best he can do is try to fall out of the way, and if he does anymore he’s going to be sitting for at least a few games. Hitting a guy in retaliation? What do these guys’ mothers think of that?

  50. LWBlogger

    @RC: I have to agreewith RiverCity Redleg in that I love reading your comments. Slipping Morgana in there was brilliant.

  51. David

    Statistics is the science that deals with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of numerical facts or data, and that, by use of mathematical theories of probability, imposes order and regularity on aggregates of more or less disparate elements.

    Anything which cannot be quantified by statistical analysis, i.e. “luck”, is cannot be quantified because human beings lack the ability to collect the data or classify it by present scientific methods.

    For that reason, statistics will always have its limits, yes. However, “luck” in the way it is being used doesn’t exist.