I thought a series win against the Cubs was a good time to list reasons why the season isn’t over. We are 1/10 of the way through the season now, but…

Joey Votto is going to hit more than 10 home runs (he currently has one).

So are Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs.

Ryan Hanigan and Jay Bruce are not going to have OBPs below .300

Mike Leake is not going to have an ERA over 6.00

Mat Latos is not going to have an ERA over 8.00

Aroldis Chapman is not going to get all his innings in the pen.

Take heart, fans. The Reds are only two games under. It’s been rough so far, but it’s about to get better.

33 Responses

  1. rfay00

    A rough start and we are 7-9. Can’t wait until we get hot.

  2. corfy

    I just wanted to add that the Reds are 7-2 when they score two or more runs. And the Reds have yet to be shut out (although they shut out their opponents once). I find both of those facts to be encouraging.

  3. dn4192

    What leads you to believe especially with how “well” he has pitched out of the pen and how much it is likely we won’t see Mr. Massett at all this season or at best not till after the All Star break that chapman will ever sniff getting a start?

  4. CP

    What leads you to believe especially with how “well” he has pitched out of the pen and how much it is likely we won’t see Mr. Massett at all this season or at best not till after the All Star break that chapman will ever sniff getting a start?

    This question needs to be rephrased ,because as written, it is pretty ridiculous. What better evidence could anyone provide other than the quotes directly from Walt and Dusty’s mouth? And I’m in the camp now that is pretty unsure whether this team can afford to move Chapman out anytime soon. Logan Ondrusek’s apparent development is encouraging but Reds need one more pitcher that can throw in higher leverage situations and possibly get a strikeout, or the Reds need to use Marshall much more liberally/”unconventionally” than they currently are (not happening).

    JJ Hoover trade could loom large if he can be that guy.

  5. zab1983

    And, i’ll add to that a couple of trends: Bailey and especially Arroyo looking decent so far, coupled with Berkman on DL (old cards team) and Wainwright not looking too good so far

  6. Sultan of Swaff

    While it could be tempting to knock Votto for the lack of HRs, anyone watching the cames closely has to be impressed with the quality of his at-bats. Very sound judgement on every pitch. Cozart, for a rookie, has been every bit his equal in that regard. It wouldn’t suprise me a bit to see both make the All-Star team.

    What do you guys make of Stubbs batting second? On one hand, he might be getting more pitches to hit. On the other, when he reaches base you can never steal with him because they then walk Votto, which leads to our black hole cleanup hitter.

  7. Greg Dafler

    Who said Masset was missing the season? I thought they were saying about a month to 6 weeks?

    • dn4192

      Who said Masset was missing the season? I thought they were saying about a month to 6 weeks?

      He continues to have soreness in his shorlder. I think they have shut him down for a bit to see what happens. this is not a good sign, given how it takes time for the body to heal and for a pitcher to build up strength, I think we will be lucky to see a 100% healthy Massett this year and even then may not see him till July.

  8. RC

    I think the way they’ve used Chapman so far this year – usually two innings with multiple days off in between – are a little bit of a clue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a 3 inning stint at some point soon if the situation arises. I do think they are aiming at having him in the rotation at some point, while keeping his early innings down.

    At least, that’s what I think I’m seeing. Could be wishful thinking…

  9. LWBlogger

    What? You mean the season isn’t over?

    Ok, a few things to ponder:

    Baltimore is 9-7. Now, I love my O’s but does anybody think they will be over .500?

    Boston is 4-10. I actually have them projected at 4th place but that was more to do with how good the AL East is as opposed to how bad Boston is. Does anyone see them losing 100 games?

    Matt Kemp is on pace for 90 HRs, 220 RBI, and he’s hitting .450. Kemp is a stud but um, he won’t finish with those numbers.

    Albert Pujols is looking for his first AL HR. Anybody think he’ll hit 10 or less?

    Tim Lincecum has a 10.34 ERA. Does anyone think his ERA will be over 4.50 by the time the year ends?

    Basically, it is a 16 game stretch of baseball. The fact that it has occured at the beginning of the season just means that there is more focus and emphasis placed on it. Truth be told, trends like this happen all the time over 15-game stretches or so. They just aren’t as magnified when they come over at the middle of the season.

    Let’s also add that a lot of the same people who are in the Doom and Gloom crowd were on the bandwagon when the Reds got off to their good start last year and were among the people that declared the Reds’ season over after the Braves loss, Cardinals sweep, and Phillies sweep in 2010.

    Baseball is a marathon. The season is far from over.

  10. LWBlogger

    Quick thought on Masset. While dn4192 usually sees the glass as half-empty more often than I do, it is not good that Masset is still having shoulder issues. dn4192 is right. Shoulder problems are much more scary than elbow issues for pitchers. There is a good chance that the Reds will not really be able to count on Masset this year. Let’s hope this isn’t the case, but it needs to be considered.

    • dn4192

      Quick thought on Masset. While dn4192 usually sees the glass as half-empty more often than I do, it is not good that Masset is still having shoulder issues. dn4192 is right. Shoulder problems are much more scary than elbow issues for pitchers. There is a good chance that the Reds will not really be able to count on Masset this year. Let’s hope this isn’t the case, but it needs to be considered.

      Hey…that’s a quarter empty… 😀

    • eastcoast redsfan

      Quick thought on Masset. While dn4192 usually sees the glass as half-empty more often than I do, it is not good that Masset is still having shoulder issues. dn4192 is right. Shoulder problems are much more scary than elbow issues for pitchers. There is a good chance that the Reds will not really be able to count on Masset this year. Let’s hope this isn’t the case, but it needs to be considered.

      While Brantley isnt a very good play-by-play announcer, he does know something about hurt shoulders in a pitcher. He said in the broadcast Sunday that Masset starting to throw and then having to be shut down is a bad sign. He said if a shoulder doesnt respond to a couple weeks of rest it might need to be operated on. Either way, he didnt think Masset would be back anytime soon.

  11. al

    I think there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about where the Reds are going, but a few things should change sooner than later to get us going in the right direction.

    First reason to be optimistic: the only pitchers who have truly bad numbers on the year are Latos, Leake, and Bray. I don’t think any of us think that those guys are actually bad, so I think they’ll straighten it out.

    The three things that need to change are: Meso needs to play more, Frazier needs to play more, and Heisey needs to play more.

    Meso playing more is pretty likely if he continues to hit well. He may even hit higher up in the order.

    Frazier playing more isn’t very likely and it’s too bad. Rolen still looks completely cooked to me, and I don’t see that changing. He’s hitting .170 with no power or walks, and it’s painful to see. I wish he would just retire and become a coach.

    The Ludwick signing was just stupid, as basically anyone could have seen. They need to just cut bait on that one, but that probably won’t happen anytime soon either.

    If the Reds ran out this lineup every day, and the pitching stayed solid, I think we’d be in good shape:

    Cozart
    Phillips
    Votto
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Heisey
    Mesoraco
    Stubbs

    • dn4192

      I think there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about where the Reds are going, but a few things should change sooner than later to get us going in the right direction. First reason to be optimistic: the only pitchers who have truly bad numbers on the year are Latos, Leake, and Bray. I don’t think any of us think that those guys are actually bad, so I think they’ll straighten it out. The three things that need to change are: Meso needs to play more, Frazier needs to play more, and Heisey needs to play more. Meso playing more is pretty likely if he continues to hit well. He may even hit higher up in the order. Frazier playing more isn’t very likely and it’s too bad. Rolen still looks completely cooked to me, and I don’t see that changing. He’s hitting .170 with no power or walks, and it’s painful to see. I wish he would just retire and become a coach. The Ludwick signing was just stupid, as basically anyone could have seen. They need to just cut bait on that one, but that probably won’t happen anytime soon either. If the Reds ran out this lineup every day, and the pitching stayed solid, I think we’d be in good shape:CozartPhillipsVottoBruceFrazierHeiseyMesoracoStubbs

      I am perplexed by those who are so down on the Ludwick deal. Is he Carlos Beltran…no but he isn’t costing the Reds that much and there is that chance that he will earn his paycheck.

      Also many here and me included were not fans of the Simon move, but overall he has not thrown that bad and you need someone in your pen to mop up when you are out of the game and he seems to be okay with that and hasn’t overall pitched that bad.

      • al

        I am perplexed by those who are so down on the Ludwick deal.Is he Carlos Beltran…no but he isn’t costing the Reds that much and there is that chance that he will earn his paycheck.

        I don’t see the value in a RH platoon for Heisey, Ludwick is currently hitting below .200, and we’re paying him several million which could have been used to take on salary in a trade at the deadline.

        And, having Ludwick instead of a lefty outfielder for the bench means that Harris is on the team, so that’s another downside.

      • dn4192

        I don’t see the value in a RH platoon for Heisey, Ludwick is currently hitting below .200, and we’re paying him several million which could have been used to take on salary in a trade at the deadline. And, having Ludwick instead of a lefty outfielder for the bench means that Harris is on the team, so that’s another downside.

        What left handed outfield was on teh FA market that was worth spending the monies for? Also do you really believe Bob won’t spend the monies come trade deadline if needed?

      • al

        What left handed outfield was on teh FA market that was worth spending the monies for?Also do you really believe Bob won’t spend the monies come trade deadline if needed?

        I’ve said before, I thought they should have gotten Johnny Damon. He’s hit much better than Ludwick over the last few years, and he has the reputation of being a great clubhouse leader and good bench player.

      • dn4192

        I’ve said before, I thought they should have gotten Johnny Damon. He’s hit much better than Ludwick over the last few years, and he has the reputation of being a great clubhouse leader and good bench player.

        Damon is a disaster in the OF and I really don’t think he wanted any part of playing in the field anymore and I don’t think there were to many AL teams falling over themselves to sign him as a DH type of player.

      • al

        Damon is a disaster in the OF and I really don’t think he wanted any part of playing in the field anymore and I don’t think there were to many AL teams falling over themselves to sign him as a DH type of player.

        he’s gonna be playing leftfield for the tribe in a week or so, so we’ll see. i don’t think ludwick is a magician in the field either. that’s why he plays left field.

  12. rfay00

    In all seriousness, we need to find a way to get Dontrelle Willis back. Recent reports show he is not happy at Baltimore and it probably wouldn’t take much (cough Willie Harris) to get him back in a Reds uniform.

    I don’t care that he can’t field, he can be a lefty specialist or a pinch hitter. It is very unconventional and an odd use of a 25 man roster spot, but at this point what do we have to lose. As many have said about Harris, what’s the point of a lefty bat who can’t hit, field, pick his ass, or do anything right.

  13. Greg Dafler

    @dn4192: Simon? With Dusty Baker’s bullpen management, Reds can’t afford to have a reclamation project like Simon on the roster, IMHO.

    • dn4192

      @dn4192: Simon? With Dusty Baker’s bullpen management, Reds can’t afford to have a reclamation project like Simon on the roster, IMHO.

      How has Simon pitched that poorly?

      • al

        How has Simon pitched that poorly?

        I think cases like Simon’s are a good time to use fangraph’s Win Probability Added (WPA) stat.

        Because I agree, overall, Simon has thrown the ball just fine.

        That said, he’s got a negative WPA right now (-.17). For those who don’t know, WPA calculates a player’s impact on the team’s probability to win.

        So what that stat shows is that while Simon has thrown well overall, good ERA etc., he’s thrown poorly when it mattered, causing big negative changes, and well when it didn’t, causing small positive changes.

        So people remember the bad times for him more, because they’ve led to losses, and don’t remember the good outings because they’ve been in low-leverage situations.

  14. al

    It always seemed very clear to me that the Reds were going to get Ludwick because of the connection that he had with Walt from their time in St. Louis. Many of us on this board predicted his signing well before it happened, because of that.

    That type of decision doesn’t seem to make much sense to me.

  15. dn4192

    While not Chapman like, the below numbers for a bullpen guy like Simon are not bad..

    0 wins
    1 loss
    3.24 era
    0 saves
    8.1 IP
    9 hits
    3 ER
    3 Walks
    10 Strikeouts

  16. Greg Dafler

    I’d be curious what the story with JD Drew was. I don’t recall that he ever formally retired. Wonder if he was just asking for too much $$, not healthy enough to play or for whatever reason just decided to hang them up.

    I think going into spring training the Reds thought they had a LH bat bench in Francisco, but his lack of offseason training & rehab nixed his future with this front office & coaching staff.

    As for Simon, I think Al’s point is the main argument against him. Why have a “mop up” guy on the roster? Sure, he’s got a low ERA in a handful of innings, mostly in blowout losses. He gets into one game that matters and loses it. It’s a bit of a waste of a roster spot for a guy who can only pitch when you’re losing by 5.

  17. earmbrister

    @al: Damon in the OF is a desperation move. He has NO ARM, and couldn’t even make throws in the tight confines of Fenway. He should ONLY be a DH.

    Ludwick, in the meantime, is a very good fielder. He’s playing LF for the Reds, because they have some guy named Bruce in RF. The majority of Ludwick’s career has been spent in RF.

  18. WilmingtonGary

    @al:
    I was surprised that the article didn’t mention Mesaraco or Frazier, so glad you did. I liked the everyday lineup you posted.
    I remember the Big Red Machine, you knew everyday the lineup would be the same no matter who was pitching. Sparky didn’t care if it was a lefty or not.
    I think todays technology providing instant statistics broken down in a hundred different ways has created the day to day lineups. The downside is players like Mes, Frazier, Heisey don’t get the opportunity to prove themselves. That plays right into the hands of Rusty Dusty Ball.

  19. al

    @earmbrister: so you’re saying they brought in ludwick to play good defense in LF (the position where defense matters least)? besides the fact that he’s been a below replacement level defender over the course of his career, what sense would that make?

    if you’re bringing in someone to play LF, shouldn’t they be a good hitter first? one of the ways to do that on the cheap is to make a platoon, but having two RH guys for the same position sort of undoes that.

    it’s not that he’s the worst i’ve ever seen. i just don’t get what value he brings to the club, and certainly not for $2+ mil.

    seems like a good ol’boy network signing plain and simple. jocketty has brought in so many ex-cardinals at this point, i don’t see how people think it’s anything but.

    • dn4192

      @earmbrister: so you’re saying they brought in ludwick to play good defense in LF (the position where defense matters least)? besides the fact that he’s been a below replacement level defender over the course of his career, what sense would that make?if you’re bringing in someone to play LF, shouldn’t they be a good hitter first? one of the ways to do that on the cheap is to make a platoon, but having two RH guys for the same position sort of undoes that. it’s not that he’s the worst i’ve ever seen. i just don’t get what value he brings to the club, and certainly not for $2+ mil. seems like a good ol’boy network signing plain and simple. jocketty has brought in so many ex-cardinals at this point, i don’t see how people think it’s anything but.

      I think him being an ex cardinal was a factor, but not the factor. I think they looked at what was available and felt that maybe Ryan could recapture his swing in swing friendly GABP and help out.