2011 Reds

Rotation Slot Definitions for 2011

With the Reds stated pursuit of starting pitching for the top of the rotation this off season and the recent acquisition of Mat Latos, there has been lots of discussion in regard to the slotting of pitchers in the starting rotation. Many like to tag starting pitchers as being a #1, #2, #3, #4, or #5 starter to describe their level of ability as a starting pitcher. The trouble is, most really don’t have a clear understanding what a pitcher in each of those rotation slots really looks like. I’ve devised a method of defining what a pitcher in each of these rotation slots looks like that may hopefully clear up some confusion in future discussions of starting pitchers and the rotation slots that they are capable of filling.

This is the method I used to define starting pitcher rotation slots. I first extracted all of the starting pitching statistics for the 2011 season. I then sorted the data for all pitchers in each league by ERA and then by XERA. Then, for each league, beginning at the top of the list, I totaled up enough IP to account for a #1 SP for each team in the league. I totaled the statistics for these pitchers and divided by the number of teams in the league to come up with the average #1 SP for the league. I repeated this process with the remaining pitchers for each of the remaining rotation slots, #2 – #5. I determined the number of innings pitched for each rotation slot, trying to come as close to the following as I could.

Slot IP
#1 220
#2 210
#3 200
#4 190
#5 The Rest

Continue reading to see the data for the 2011 season.

Here is the data for the 2011 season.

2011 ERA Rotation Slots

AL ERA Rot. Slots  W  L  ERA GS  IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP XERA
Avg AL #1 SP      15  9 2.90 33 222 188  79  72 19 61 187 1.12 3.03
Avg AL #2 SP      13 11 3.57 33 206 192  90  82 20 63 159 1.24 3.68
Avg AL #3 SP      12 12 4.25 32 199 205 103  94 24 56 141 1.31 4.30
Avg AL #4 SP      10 13 4.80 33 188 203 109 100 22 66 126 1.43 4.73
Avg AL #5 SP       8 14 6.03 32 167 202 121 112 26 64 108 1.59 5.83
Avg. AL SP        12 12 4.21 32 196 198 100  92 22 62 144 1.32 4.22

Rotation Slots ERA Range
AL #1 Starters 3.32 and under
AL #2 Starters 3.33 - 3.92
AL #3 Starters 3.93 - 4.45
AL #4 Starters 4.46 - 5.14
AL #5 Starters 5.15 and over

NL ERA Rot. Slots  W  L	 ERA GS    IP   H   R ER HR BB  SO WHIP XERA
Avg NL #1 SP      15 10	2.77 35	224.5 193  77 69 17 59 186 1.12 2.85
Avg NL #2 SP      13 11	3.51 34	210.6 200  92 82 21 62 170 1.24 3.59
Avg NL #3 SP      12 12	3.88 35	203.8 202  96 88 23 68 153 1.32 4.01
Avg NL #4 SP      10 12	4.55 32	187.9 201 103 95 22 63 137 1.41 4.46
Avg NL #5 SP       6 12	5.64 27	145.0 167  96 91 22 58  98 1.55 5.36
Avg. NL SP        11 11	3.94 32	194.3 193  93 85 21 62 149 1.31 3.94

Rotation Slots ERA Range
NL #1 Starters 3.29 and under
NL #2 Starters 3.30 - 3.67
NL #3 Starters 3.68 - 4.21
NL #4 Starters 4.22 - 4.82
NL #5 Starters 4.83 and over


2011 XERA Rotation Slots

AL XERA Rot. Slots  W  L  ERA GS  IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP XERA
Avg AL #1 SP       15 10 3.03 34 224 184  83  75 20 59 184 1.08 2.93
Avg AL #2 SP       14 10 3.67 33 210 196  94  86 20 66 172 1.25 3.69
Avg AL #3 SP       12 12 4.18 33 201 207 102  93 21 63 143 1.34 4.27
Avg AL #4 SP       10 13 4.82 32 190 207 112 102 25 60 126 1.40 4.78
Avg AL #5 SP        7 13 5.92 30 157 198 112 103 24 61  95 1.65 6.06
Avg. AL SP         12 12 4.21 32 196 198 100  92 22 62 144 1.32 4.22

Rotation Slots XERA Range
AL #1 Starters 3.37 and under
AL #2 Starters 3.38 - 4.05
AL #3 Starters 4.06 - 4.46
AL #4 Starters 4.47 - 5.34
AL #5 Starters 5.35 and over

NL XERA Rot. Slots  W  L  ERA GS    IP   H   R ER HR BB  SO WHIP XERA
Avg NL #1 SP       16 10 2.90 35 225.3 190  79 73 16 60 197 1.11 2.73
Avg NL #2 SP       13 12 3.51 35 215.7 202  93 84 22 63 177 1.23 3.55
Avg NL #3 SP       12 12 3.89 34 202.4 204  97 87 21 68 145 1.34 4.06
Avg NL #4 SP       10 13 4.57 33 191.9 208 106 97 22 66 133 1.42 4.53
Avg NL #5 SP        6 11 5.51 25 136.4 160  89 84 22 53  92 1.56 5.54
Avg. NL SP         11 11 3.94 32 194.3 193  93 85 21 62 149 1.31 3.94

Rotation Slots XERA Range
NL #1 Starters 3.30 and under
NL #2 Starters 3.31 - 3.75
NL #3 Starters 3.76 - 4.27
NL #4 Starters 4.28 - 4.74
NL #5 Starters 4.75 and over

Here is how each of the Reds starters from last season fared. I’ve also included Mat Latos, who the Reds added to the rotation over the winter.

Reds SP ERA

NL #1 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Cueto, J    CIN  9  5  2.31 24 156.0 123  51  40  8 47 104 1.09  2.39

NL #2 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Latos, M     SD  9 14  3.47 31 194.3 168  82  75 16 62 185 1.18  3.07

NL #3 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Leake, M    CIN 12  8  3.86 26 165.7 156  73  71 23 36 117 1.16  3.71

NL #4 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Bailey, H   CIN  9  7  4.43 22 132.0 136  68  65 18 33 106 1.28  4.22
LeCure, S   CIN  0  1  4.79  4  20.7  19  12  11  4  5  19 1.16  4.10

NL #5 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Willis, D   CIN  1  6  5.00 13  75.7  78  42  42  6 37  57 1.52  4.35
Arroyo, B   CIN  9 12  5.07 32 199.0 227 119 112 46 45 108 1.37  5.56
Wood, T     CIN  5  6  5.08 18 101.0 117  57  57 10 38  69 1.53  4.90
Volquez, E  CIN  5  7  5.71 20 108.7 106  72  69 19 65 104 1.57  5.13
Reineke, C  CIN  0  1  7.11  1   6.3   5   6   5  2  5   2 1.58  5.90
Maloney, M  CIN  0  2 22.09  2   3.7  17  10   9  2  1   1 4.91 26.42


Reds SP XERA

NL #1 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Cueto, J    CIN  9  5  2.31 24 156.0 123  51  40  8 47 104 1.09  2.39
Latos, M     SD  9 14  3.47 31 194.3 168  82  75 16 62 185 1.18  3.07

NL #2 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Leake, M    CIN 12  8  3.86 26 165.7 156  73  71 23 36 117 1.16  3.71

NL #3 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
LeCure, S   CIN  0  1  4.79  4  20.7  19  12  11  4  5  19 1.16  4.10
Bailey, H   CIN  9  7  4.43 22 132.0 136  68  65 18 33 106 1.28  4.22

NL #4 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Willis, D   CIN  1  6  5.00 13  75.7  78  42  42  6 37  57 1.52  4.35

NL #5 SP   Team  W  L   ERA GS    IP   H   R  ER HR BB  SO WHIP  XERA
Wood, T     CIN  5  6  5.08 18 101.0 117  57  57 10 38  69 1.53  4.90
Volquez, E  CIN  5  7  5.71 20 108.7 106  72  69 19 65 104 1.57  5.13
Arroyo, B   CIN  9 12  5.07 32 199.0 227 119 112 46 45 108 1.37  5.56
Reineke, C  CIN  0  1  7.11  1   6.3   5   6   5  2  5   2 1.58  5.90
Maloney, M  CIN  0  2 22.09  2   3.7  17  10   9  2  1   1 4.91 26.42

It’s pretty clear from the numbers above that Mat Latos is a big addition to the top of the starting rotation. The ERA rankings above listed him as a #2 starter, whereas the XERA data list him as a #1 starter due to his strong peripheral numbers.

I hope you find these rotation slot definitions informative and maybe they’ll help put some people on common ground in future discussions of starting pitchers.

32 thoughts on “Rotation Slot Definitions for 2011

  1. Well, that took me a while to absorb it, but the research looks sound. I looks as though those who say the AL has better pitching seem to be correct overall. The numbers are very close and they substitute the worst hitter’s spot with someone who only hits.

    It also look as though if all the Reds starters reproduce what they did last year this will be a very exciting year indeed.

  2. Tom, this is great. Very informative. I think you have a typo in Cueto’s XERA (should be a 3, not a 2, right?).

    Otherwise, great stuff.

    • . I think you have a typo in Cueto’s XERA (should be a 3, not a 2, right?).

      Double checked the spreadsheet, it looks correct to me.

  3. The glaring deficiency are IP.

    We need 185 minimum from Cueto and Latos. Bailey needs to pitch more than 170 as does Leake. If Arroyo gets back to eating 200+ then we should be ok.

    But this rotation raises a serious question of durability.

  4. @rightsaidred:

    I’m also a bit concerned about this, and I think durability is by far the biggest question mark with this rotation. I’m fairly confident in Latos, Leake, and Arroyo. Arroyo has always eaten innings, and Latos and Leake have posted solid IP totals in their first two seasons without any real injury concerns cropping up.

    I’m very concerned about Cueto and Bailey. Bailey has been held back recently by a number of shoulder issues, and Cueto missed a good chunk of time last year. Cueto’s frame isn’t ideal for a max effort pitcher, so I’ll always be nervous about him. Let’s just hope that both of these guys can give us 180+ innings in 2012. I guess Chapman is waiting in the wings just in case, but I don’t know how heavily I want to lean on an unknown quantity like him when my team has playoff aspirations.

  5. @rightsaidred: I couldn’t agree more. We need innings eaters and depth, otherwise our bullpen strength will turn into a weakness. I don’t think we can reasonably count on Chapman to be that firewall in case of injury, which is one more reason I didn’t like the Marshall trade. Giving up Wood was unnecessary IMO. We just gotta stay healthy and maybe pick up a veteran guy for some AAA insurance.

    • Okay, so everyone is worried about injuries and depth. Doesn’t that apply to every team in baseball? What rotation besides Philadelphia and maybe the Giants isn’t worried about depth?

      @rightsaidred: We need innings eaters and depth, otherwise our bullpen strength will turn into a weakness. I don’t think we can reasonably count on Chapman to be that firewall in case of injury, which is one more reason I didn’t like the Marshall trade. Giving up Wood was unnecessary IMO. We just gotta stay healthy and maybe pick up a veteran guy for some AAA insurance.

      Right, but again, doesn’t everybody want “innings eaters?” That’s why guys like Livan Hernandez and Jeff Suppan have always had jobs. But I see no reason to hold onto a starter (even a lefty with potential) like Wood with a 5.08 ERA if you can get a guy who can be a 2-inning stopper in return. There’s a possibility that between Marshall and Madson you can get up to four innings of lights-out relief two or three times a week. That can mean more victories than one starter can deliver. In the case of another AAA starter OR another outfielder, I think the team can do that at the deadline, because they will still be incontention.

  6. @Sultan of Swaff: That makes sense, who do you have in mind?

    Arroyo and Latos both 200+ with Cueto right in the vicinity plus Leake jumping 15 innings (to 180) and Homer jumping 40 inning to 170 means playoffs in my book.

  7. @Sultan of Swaff: I have to believe that if the Reds knew ahead of time that they’d get Madson, they wouldn’t have made the Marshall trade. But maybe I’m wrong. At the time they made the Marshall trade they could not have dreamed they’d get Madson.

  8. I would be interested in what these stats look like for the 2011 PLAYOFF teams? I would think most playoff teams have better pitching than the league averages.

    • I would be interested in what these stats look like for the 2011 PLAYOFF teams? I would think most playoff teams have better pitching than the league averages.

      Easy enough to do with the ERA range chart above. If someone really wanted the XERA numbers for a team, I could extract them from my spreadsheet when I get some time.

  9. @Dave Lowenthal: I think the Reds severely misread the market for relief pitchers. I mean, why were they even flirting with Coco? Anyway, water under the bridge.
    –As for the rotation slots, were there any rotations in baseball that met these IP totals? I would be shocked if any team had 5 starters average nearly 200 innings.
    –Or, maybe the better question would be: which team used the fewest starting pitchers to achieve 1000 IP?

    • –As for the rotation slots, were there any rotations in baseball that met these IP totals? I would be shocked if any team had 5 starters average nearly 200 innings.
      –Or, maybe the better question would be: which team used the fewest starting pitchers to achieve 1000 IP?

      Yeah, it’s rare for anyone to run the season with just 5 SP. I can only recall it happening once that I’m aware of.

      2003 Seattle Mariners

      Name W L ERA GS IP ERA+ WHIP
      Jamie Moyer* 21 7 3.27 33 215.0 132 1.233
      Ryan Franklin 11 13 3.57 32 212.0 121 1.226
      Joel Pineiro 16 11 3.78 32 211.2 114 1.266
      Freddy Garcia 12 14 4.51 33 201.1 95 1.326
      Gil Meche 15 13 4.59 32 186.1 94 1.342

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml

  10. I think this durability thing isn’t anything to worry about. We can’t control injuries, and while they’re technically predictable(pitchf/x), there is nothing we can really do to prevent them. It’s an absolute safe bet to think that Bailey will hit the DL at some point. I can live with Chapman the “unknown quantity” who started his career here as a starter with a couple stretches of three starts or so, and if it all goes to hell, then we still have LeCure who is more than capable. I also saw the reds were looking at Jeff Francis. I am not worried about anyone that isn’t Homer Bailey. Cueto got shut down last year, but i think it might’ve been for more precautionary reasons than an actual killer injury, seeing as it happened when we had no chance at the playoffs. Cueto, Latos and Leake will be fine. Sure Bronsons been great at eating innings…but i dont want a guy who throws 200 innings if he gives up 50 homeruns in the process, while causing us to lose 15-18 games alone. And Bailey will hit the DL because he hits the DL. We’ll be fine. Can’t control injuries, no reason to plan for injuries

  11. @Sam Jackson: Sure, all teams are worried about what happens to their rotation if their 5 best starters get hurt. And the past couple of years the Reds have had decent options at 6th/7th/8th on the depth chart. This year when a starter gets hurt, and rarely does a team only use 5 starters for a season, who is 6th on the depth chart. Hopefully a ready Chapman. Then who?

    Wood had a 4.84 ERA last year and a 3.51 ERA the year before that. In 208 MLB innings, his ERA is 4.18. Not sure exactly what he is yet, but that would be a really nice option for bullpen depth, and eventual fulltime starter, IMO.

  12. @Greg Dafler: Right-e-o. The universality of a problem does not make it less of a problem.

    In 2011, the Reds had Willis, Volquez, LeCure, Wood, LeCure, and Maloney as ‘fill-ins’.
    In 2012, the Reds have LeCure and Chapman as ‘fill ins’. That kind of support off the AAA bench is a little too thin in my opinion.

    Willis, Wood, and Volequez represent nearly 300 IP from starters that are gone. Latos captures about 200 of that back but nearly all of the other 100 needs to come primarily from Bailey, Leake, Cueto. Of those, only Leake has a relatively clean bill of health from last year. Thanks to Tom’s numbers, I now think that another AAA/MLB SP is a necessity.

  13. @Greg Dafler: @rightsaidred: Okay, I did not argue the need for another arm in AAA. However, I feel there will be a chance to get one in-season. Plus, how well can you really expect to contend going to your 6th, 7th and 8th starters? Injuries to the rotation will kill the team’s chance to contend, period. As is the case with 95 percent of the teams in MLB.

    • However, I feel there will be a chance to get one in-season. Plus, how well can you really expect to contend going to your 6th, 7th and 8th starters?

      True, a team doesn’t often contend if their starting pitching is too hurt, but it doesn’t make any more sense to just say “ah, let’s roll with it and see.” Waiting unitl midseason may also make the cost go up for someone even if they are of equivalant talent to someone available now. It’s not as though injuries only happen after the deadline.

      Also… having Marshall and Madson to shut down the end of the game is great, but only if we have someone to get them the ball with the lead. Having too shallow of a starting pitching depth may turn a bullpen strength into a weakness. Hopefully they will remain mostly injury free, but contigency planning otherwise makes sense to me.

  14. Hardball Times did something similar in 2006: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/

    I prefer LookoutLanding.com’s model from 2008 using tRA+, a pitching independent of defense metric on an OPS+ type scale: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/9/23/618821/rotation-slots-in-reality

    “These represent the breakpoints between each slot. For example, between a 95 and a 106 tRA+ would be rated as a #3 starter. Below 86 and you’re a #5, above a 118 and you’re a #1.

    1 — 2 BARRIER: 118 tRA+
    2 — 3 BARRIER: 106 tRA+
    3 — 4 BARRIER: 95 tRA+
    4 — 5 BARRIER: 86 tRA+”

    The barriers are what I think are important. Ideally, your No. 2 shouldn’t be league average i.e. 112, but closer to the barrier. That’s what separates a very good rotation from an average rotation. Maybe the Reds could settle on average, but to contend for a World Series title, you need a very good rotation.

    Latos (126) and Cueto (118) are a very good pair at the top of the rotation. Leake (102) is just a notch above league average as a No. 3 (100), Bailey (98) a notch below, and Arroyo posted the 3rd worst tRA of anyone who qualified.

    Latos and Cueto are a pretty great young 1-2 combo, each could be an ace. Leake and Bailey are probably league average in the 3-4 roles, but in my estimation would be better if they were in the 4-5 slots. I guess in my mind, the Reds are missing a great No. 3 to put behind Latos and Cueto. Leake, Bailey and Chapman are probably league average 3-4 guys and Arroyo only gives you value by resting the bullpen. Although a number 5 is a number 5 if that’s 200 IP, your bullpen is much better as a result.

    If it’s me, I’d package Bailey, Chapman and others for a year rental of a 2-3 type to stick behind Latos and Cueto.

    • If it’s me, I’d package Bailey, Chapman and others for a year rental of a 2-3 type to stick behind Latos and Cueto.

      I’m sorry,k this just seems insane to me. Chapman is relatively cheap, very young, very good, and under control for 4 more years. And you would trade him, as part of a package, for 1 year of what he could be this year, and almost certainly will be for the next 3? How does that add up.

      I don’t want them to trade Chapman at all, but when people were floating the idea of trading him for a young stud outfielder, I could at least see it. But for a rental of a 3rd starter? No way.

    • I prefer LookoutLanding.com’s model from 2008 using tRA+, a pitching independent of defense metric on an OPS+ type scale: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/9/23/618821/rotation-slots-in-reality

      “These represent the breakpoints between each slot. For example, between a 95 and a 106 tRA+ would be rated as a #3 starter. Below 86 and you’re a #5, above a 118 and you’re a #1.

      1 — 2 BARRIER: 118 tRA+
      2 — 3 BARRIER: 106 tRA+
      3 — 4 BARRIER: 95 tRA+
      4 — 5 BARRIER: 86 tRA+”

      I do like that model, he basically uses the same selection methodology as I do, but using tRA+ instead of XERA. I used XERA mostly because it’s better than ERA and easy to compute off of a normal pitching stats line which is easy to find. The results are not too far off. Cueto is right on the 1/2 barrier for tRA+, so Leake is the only real difference.

      tRA+ XERA
      Slot Slot
      1 Latos 126 1
      2 Cueto 118 1
      3 Leake 102 2
      3 Bailey 98 3
      5 Arroyo <86 5

  15. @rightsaidred: I wouldn’t have any problem with the Reds brining in some more AAA roster filler, but I disagree that we need it based on last year.

    By my count, the Reds have 6 pitchers capable of giving them better-than-replacement level innings. Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Chapman, and Lecure. The jury is out on Arroyo, but he was replacement level last year, but he’ll be in the rotation for better or worse, so that’s 7.

    You list Willis, Wood, Volquez, and Maloney in your post, but they were all replacement level last year. You don’t really have to try very hard to replace replacement-level pitching.

    The Reds replaced 200 of the 300 replacement level innings they got with top tier innings. If they end up needing an8thy starter, getting 100 replacement-level innings won’t be the end of them.

  16. @David: Interestingly, Leake and Cueto have VERY similar peripherals. Don’t be surprised if they put up almost identical season this year.

    • Interestingly, Leake and Cueto have VERY similar peripherals. Don’t be surprised if they put up almost identical season this year.

      That’s an interesting observation. There are a couple of ways that Cueto has the edge still, but I think you’re right, they could have much closer seasons than they did last year.

      Ks: Leake 6.3 Cueto 6 (stats are per 9 innings)
      BB: L 2 C 2.7
      H: L 8.5 C 7.1
      HR: L 1.2 C .5

      GB/FB: L .95 C 1.18

      So basically I see that last year they both gave up walks and strikeouts at about the same rate, with Leake having the slight edge. But Cuteo gave up significantly fewer hits and HR, probably because he was better at keeping the ball on the ground.

      I think that passes the eyeball test too, since Cueto clearly has better stuff, and all of his pitches have really good downward action.

    • BTW, thanks Tom! I look forward to your post on this topic every year!

      You must have been really hurting for a fix then, cause it’s been a few years since the last one.🙂

  17. @al: It’s not insane if you are “all in for 2012.” Chapman is relatively cheap for an established starter. He’s not relatively cheap for a AAA starter or a reliever. His BB/9 was 7.38 last season, and he’s only got two pitches that he uses with any regularity. He had 107.3 IP in 2010 and only 64.5 last season. Reliever alarms should be flashing right now.

    Talk Verducci effect, Chapman isn’t going to pitch 150 innings this year. He’s probably not going to pitch 130 innings this year. Chapman needs to go to a team who can develop him into a starter over time or wants him as a closer.

    In other words, I view Chapman’s value a whole lot less than you. Yeah 106 mph is neat, but it has to fit in with the Reds. In four years, with Latos, Cueto and Leake, that’s a great rotation, but the Reds aren’t looking to win in four years.

    I looked at all the players and all the teams that could be a fit. I think Gavin Floyd (+ 5 mil.) makes the most sense. The White Sox have Dayan Viciedo and are in rebuilidng/kind of rebuilding mode. Floyd posted a 108 tRA+ in the AL Central and is in the last year of his deal. The Reds could add him for 5 million more than current payroll figure.

    I think Latos, Cueto, Floyd, Leake, Bailey/Arroyo is stronger than Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo/Chapman

  18. @David: to me there’s a big difference between being all in and signing a closer, or trading your 6th starter for a reliever, and being reckless. trading chapman for a rental that isn’t a huge upgrade is reckless.

    Here are projections for the pitchers involved in your scenarios (average of three projections on fangraphs):

    Floyd: 3.90 FIP; 190 IP
    Chapman: 3.30 FIP; 90 IP
    Arroyo: 5.00 FIP; 200 IP
    Bailey: 3.90 FIP, 160 IP

    So scenario 1 is Floyd, Bailey/Arroyo. Going for 400 IP total gives us 190 from Floyd (82 ER) and 210 from Bailey/Arroyo (straight average gives 104 ER). Total = about 186 ER.

    Secnario 2 is Bailey, Arroyo/Chapman. Same 400 IP gives 160 from Bailey (69 ER), plus 90 from Chapman (33 ER), plus 150 from Arroyo (83 ER. Total = about 185 ER.

    Now I’m not saying that this is an exact science, but based on an average of the professional projections available, it looks to me like the two scenarios are pretty equivalent.

    Even if we give your scenario more benefit of the doubt, it’s not going to be drastically better, maybe a win over the course of the year. Do you really want to lose the next 4 years of chapman for 1 win next year?

  19. fay also talked to jocketty about roy oswalt, and that’s interesting to me. he says they don’t have the payroll to do it, or rather, that the reds would have to be “very creative” to bring him in, and probably move other salary.

    If they could move Bailey or Arroyo for some payroll relief, that would be a good upgrade to the rotation.

  20. I’ve been thinking. Whats to stop the Reds from having a 6 man roster to include Chapman/Bailey/whoever you think is the odd man out. Chapman is definitely not a career relief pitcher nor should he be with the talent he posses. He is young and yes, needs to develop but if the Reds are thinking about making him a SP (which would be awesome) he could fill a 6 slot. Yes, fewer innings for everyone else but also more rest and leeway if someone falls apart (Volquez of last year). Its not typical of today’s MLB to see 6 starters but its not some dumb rule like the DH where there HAS to only be 5 guys. Thoughts?

  21. Pingback: 2012 Pod Pitcher Projections: Jeremy Hellickson | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Comments are closed.