2012 Reds

Prospects Named In The Wood-Marshall Trade

A report has come out that the Reds will announce the trade this afternoon that nets Sean Marshall of the Cubs for lhp Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt, and 19-yr-old infield prospect Ronald Torreyes.

According to ESPN.com’s Keith Law, the prospects involved are Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt, a 24-year-old outfielder, made a 38-game Major League debut with the Reds last season, and Torreyes is a 19-year-old infielder who spent 2011 at Class A Dayton.

I wasn’t completely convinced that a Travis Wood for Sean Marshall swap was fair to the Reds. This trade comes straight from the Wayne Krivsky self-help book on how to significantly overpay for relievers.

We can hope that either this early report isn’t true or that there is some additional information missing. However, even an extension of Marshall wouldn’t make up for the package being sent to Chicago.

UPDATE The Reds have made the announcement official. This is a done deal, as outlined above. There’s no mention of an extension, or that the Cubs are picking up any of Marshall’s salary in the announcement.

191 thoughts on “Prospects Named In The Wood-Marshall Trade

  1. @TC: I’ve been on this site for a few years, too, and to write off the pessimism as “not being part of the John Fay crowd” doesn’t quite explain it. I was much more put off by the comments when I first started reading the site (even calling out one of the editors for what I considered to be an excessively “downer” post). At this point, I think the commenters and editors tend to have a lot of baseball knowledge. I think there are commenters who associate optimism with a lack of baseball knowledge, and to a degree, it can be true. After all, the guy who predicts that we’ll miss the playoffs every year is going to be right a lot more than the guy who predicts a World Series win every year. I tend to fall in the latter category (World Series 2012!!), so I often avoid commenting because the culture of the board is to complain. Still, there are a lot of people with a lot of valid opinions, so to those dissapointed by the pessimists/realists, just know they are doing their jobs and we’ll all be celebrating together when they are finally wrong.

    If anyone is still reading this, my feeling is that we overpaid, but with good reason. It should be a tumultuous year for St. Louis, Milwaukee and (as usual) Chicago. We have the best player in the division, a lineup that can hit the cover off the ball and a rotation that can pop a mitt. It’s as good a time to go for broke as any.

  2. I’m a little concerned at how thin the upper levels of the farm are now. Sure, I understand the Reds are trying win now, and I’m board with it…but depth is an important part of winning now. One that’s often overlooked, IMO. Last year, we thought we had a wealth of starting pitching. And who thought we’d go through three shortstops?

    Of course, Walt’s not done yet. Maybe he’s planning to address this. Still…there’s something to be said for having a fallback of homegrown guys with options left, if you’re hoping to win it all.

  3. Over on FanGraphs, Marc Hulet had a prospects chat today and was asked what he thought of Sappelt and Torreyes. Here is his response (at the 1:47 time stamp):

    “I tweeted about them earlier (@marchulet) and they’re nice pieces but probably future role/bench players at the MLB level. Nice return for Marshall, though. Cincy sold high on the two prospects – they’re both coming off career/breakout years.”

    This is someone who has seen both of them play and is paid to evaluate minor leaguers. I take his word for it that we didn’t lose much with the minor leaguers. I’ve seen Sappelt on tv and agree.

  4. @dn4192: Considering that you value all prospects as “worthless”, what else would you say?

    And no, that’s not why I don’t like the deal. And I’m not opposed to dealing prospects, I’m strongly in favor of the Latos deal.

    But your comments that all prospects are the same, and that all prospects are worthless…it’s silly.

  5. @RedLeg75: In 2006 John Sickels rated Joey Votto equal to Chris Denorfia, who I suspect is a “future role/bench player at the MLB level”. Obviously, not an exact science here. Is Sappelt’s breakout like Votto’s? I highly, highly, highly doubt it. < 1% chance. But there's a greater chance Sappelt could start and be useful (but not "good").

    • In 2006 John Sickels rated Joey Votto equal to Chris Denorfia, who I suspect is a “future role/bench player at the MLB level”.Obviously, not an exact science here.Is Sappelt’s breakout like Votto’s?I highly, highly, highly doubt it.< 1% chance.But there’s a greater chance Sappelt could start and be useful (but not “good”).

      Baseball Prospectus’ 2006 list:

      1 Homer Bailey
      2 Jay Bruce
      3 Travis Wood
      4 B.J. Szymanski
      5 Chris Denorfia
      6 Rafael Gonzalez
      7 Miguel Perez
      8 Tyler Pelland
      9 Joey Votto
      10 Travis Chick

      The ranked Votto behind not only Denorfia, but the likes of Miguel Perez, Tyler Pelland, and…Travis Wood.

      Not that I’m afraid give up prospects. I think think in this particular deal, we gave up too many. I loved the Latos deal, though that was a lot to give up, too.

  6. Anyone else feel good about the Josh Judy signing canceling out the loss of Boxberger? They have similar mine league numbers and Judy may even have more dominant SO stuff. If we just filled that hole then the Latos deal is a complete slam dunk.

    So I know if me ruined it before, but Coco Crisp for $5 million-ish and figure out yor closer whenever? There’s no doubt we need a veteran LF to at least backup heisey, and more likely to platoon. Crisp is a better lead off man than anyone in our lineup now, including BP.

  7. For those of you concerned about the farm system being too weakened, I live in Wisconsin and have watched the Brewers trade prospects for major league players for several years now. The Brewers did have some strong prospects at one time, but were never considered to have a stocked system like the Reds have. In an interview earlier this fall, the Brewers GM responded to the question of the farm system becoming bare by saying you have to believe in your ability to continue to draft and develop good prospects. Whether they eventually play for you or you use them for trade chips depends on the team’s needs at the time. If you eventually lose a player you can’t afford to sign, it just brings more draft choices to keep the cycle fed. Even with these trades, I imagine the Reds are still considered to have one of the stronger farm systems.

    He didn’t say this, but every once in awhile you get the opportunity to absolutely steal a good player for some prospects with questionnable upside, which is what the Brewers did in the Greinke trade.

  8. @eric nyc: I like the Judy signing, but he’s older than Boxberger; doesn’t strike out as many, and just repeated AAA in 2011 and didn’t do as well as in 2010. That’s probably why they DFA’d him. He was a C+ prospect coming into 2011 (by Sickels), just as Boxberger was. He probably became a C prospect after 2011.

    He still could be quite useful, of course.

  9. Juan Pierre might fit the bill for LF. He can probably be had for 2 years, $10 million. He’s a lead off hitter, better than average speed, career .345 OBP, career OPS+ of 88, swipes an average of 39 bases per year, and he can shag balls like the devil. Plus, he is only one year removed from his career year.

    He’s not Michael Bourne, but he is more than serviceable. At 34 he is likely starting to decline, but not as quickly as he will at 36.

    Perhaps he might solve a few problems.

  10. Indians fans are seriously grumbling about the loss of Judy. Seems the Tribe did not want to lose the promising young relief pitcher, but had to make space for recently acquired Aaron Cunningham.

    He was their 2011 24th rated prospect (which is great for a reliever). Some of his luster was tarnished after he had a poor 14 inning debut during the September call-ups this past season. He was the AAA closer this past season and thrived in the role. His numbers and role seem to follow closely to that of Logan Ondrusek. If so, IMO this is an excellent pickup.

  11. @TC: I just don’t get that.

    Ondrusek stinks. He’s basically a clone of Cordero, slightly better, who costs what Cordero *should* cost. OK, I’m being dramatic, but his career minor league numbers: 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9

    Judy’s career minor league numbers: 10.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9

    They are the same age, roughly.

    The only thing similar about those two are that they both pitch. I mean, one looks like a pitch to contact guy (Ondrusek) and the other like a late-inning, shutdown reliever (Judy). Judy just had an off-year in 2011, but it’s a very small number of innings: he increased his IP from 47 to 52, and his walks from 14 to 25. That’s a terrible walk rate, but it’s also a very small number of innings, so he could have just had a few bad games for all I know.

    But Judy look nothing like Ondrusek.

  12. Reds also pick up Brian Esposito. He’s a 32 year old professional minor league catcher who’s specialty is working with young pitchers.

    The guy couldn’t hit the Ohio River if he fell from the center of the Roebling, but apparently he knows how to handle a staff. The Reds will need someone at AAA if Redleg Nation award winner for best mustache, Corky Miller, has to be called up. Or he may be in Corky’s role at AA if Mark Fleury starts the year at AAA.

  13. @Dave Lowenthal: Umm, Logan Ondrusek has a career average 3.45 ERA and 1.267 WHIP over two seasons which is not that far off if career minor league numbers. That stinks?

    I agreed, their K-rates are different.

  14. From January to May of 2010 I was the top poster on the board. I enjoyed chatting with the other regulars. Then it stopped being fun, now I remember why.😦

  15. I’m watching the Others right now starring nicole kidman. It didnt get very good ratings, but i still find it eerie and creepy. But its k/9…its so low.

    I’m intrigued by these numbers guys bring up. Ondrusek pitches to contact, his k/9 isn’t great yet theres a claim he stinks? I’m sorry, but he’s been consistent and solid save for the end of last year when he was over worked. Just because he doesnt strike out 13/9 like Chapman doesnt mean anything. Downward plane, movement to his pitches and he pitches to contact. I’ve seen ondrusek be successful with my own eyes. No number any one (dave lowenthal) brings up will shake ondrusek being successful. So he doesnt fit the numbers of sabermetrics. This doesnt make him a bad pitcher. You dont get to the majors by fluking your way through three to five levels of minor leagues. So you can take your numbers. I’ll take ondrusek in the sixth or seventh inning and feel more than better about it.

  16. Logan Ondrusek was pretty good in the first half of 2011 and really a bigger part of 2010s bullpen success than perhaps given credit. Kind of like Nick Masset, he seemed kind of worn down as the season progressed from being used a ton.

  17. Dave Sappelt really didn’t impress me last year. He played a bit better later on, especially with defense as he did a few dumb plays when he first got to Cincy.
    He kind of reminded me build wise of Billy Hatcher and probably if he does OK, that is probably his ceiling. I tend to doubt the Reds just traded away Kirby Puckett.

  18. I had to do a lot of driving yesterday and listened for hours to mlbnetwork radio.
    An interesting thing about this trade is that fans of both teams hate it.
    Says something about overvaluing the players on your own team.

    From here I just hope that WJ does NOT sign CoCo. He said some encouraging things today about how Marshall or someone else “in house” might close.
    I would go with Marshall as the “high leverage” setup guy and with LeCure as the closer.

  19. @BubbaFan:
    You quoted Myles, who was quoted what I had said. The point I was making, that he picked up on, is that this team has no depth at all right now. You even made the point yourself. If Hanigan or Mesoraco go on the DL, Corky comes up to take their place. If one of the remaining 2 gets banged up, Janish is our backup catcher. For however long it takes someone to get healthy. And that’s not the only position like that. The only infielder at AAA who has had any success is Soto. A first baseman. There is no middle infielder listed on their roster who could do any more than take a spot. There is no depth. No McClellon to step into the rotation. No Jay, or Craig to plug into the outfield. Nothing.

  20. I’m glad we didn’t pursue Gio Gonzalez too hard: In today’s Insider-only blog post, ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Athletics never got into deep talks with the Reds about Gio Gonzalez, but they would not have traded the lefty for the four-player package Cincinnati gave up for Mat Latos.

    • ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Athletics never got into deep talks with the Reds about Gio Gonzalez, but they would not have traded the lefty for the four-player package Cincinnati gave up for Mat Latos.

      Of course not, they wanted nothing to do with Volquez and the ~ $3M he will be getting paid this season.

  21. @hermanbates: Hah, hah, you’re hilarious.

    I said I was being dramatic. I wasn’t serious that Ondrusek stinks. My points were:

    1. He doesn’t look at all like Josh Judy to me.

    2. He does look like Cordero in his profile, and I like having Ondrusek around—but not to pitch high leverage innings like Baker uses him—for $418,000. Just like I said. You wouldn’t imagine paying Ondrusek 8M/year, but that’s probably what the Reds will end up paying Cordero.

    Also, you most certainly can get to the major leagues by fluking your way through several levels of the minor leagues. That’s a side point, but if you couldn’t do that, then predictions from minor league performance would be perfect, right? I mean, Chris Hammond would have been an ace, right?

  22. @earl: Or his luck evened out—he’s not a 1.97 ERA pitcher. He only threw 61 innings last year, and 55 innings in 2010. That’s not really a heavy workload. I suppose he had a lot of appearances, but still.

  23. @pinson343: I’d think Marshall would have to get the higher leverage situations than Lecure, he’s clearly a better pitcher at this point. Since Baker doesn’t mix and match, that should mean Marshall closes over Lecure if they go in house. On average, the 9th will be higher leverage.

  24. It’s not that they gave up Wood and Sappelt and Torreyes as much as the fact that Marshall can walk after this year and that’s too much talent (all included) for one year of Marshall. IF they can get Marshall extended, I’ll be fine with this deal, but I wouldn’t have made it w/o an extension in place. Giving up these 3 guys is too much for one year of Marshall and that’s all the Reds are assured at this point in time.

    • IF they can get Marshall extended, I’ll be fine with this deal, but I wouldn’t have made it w/o an extension in place.

      He’s not going to sign an extension. Heard him on 700 WLW last night and he said he’d love the opportunity to close and that he’d just go out and pitch and worry about resigning at the end of the season. No way I’d sign up for more years now with the Reds, knowing I’d have a decent shot at doing some closing this year. He’d be better off waiting until next off season and possibly getting closer money because there is no way the Reds would name him closer now and pay him as such in an extension.

  25. @Dave Lowenthal: Judy had a 10.4 K/9 last year, and he’s done it consistently at the AAA level for a while. Boxberger’s number is a tick higher but has a very small sample size in AAA ball. Seems like a pretty good strikeout rate to me. And he’s only 2 years older than Boxberger. Maybe not a PERFECT swap, but fills the hole that Boxberger would have filled this year with the big club as a middle reliever. He might not have the closer-type ceiling of Boxberger, but it was a smart pickup that makes the Latos trade look even better. If we extend Marshall and make him the closer (hell, even if we don’t extend him and just use him as the closer this year) I’ll start feeling much more comfortable. I just keep refreshing the homepage dreading news of a Cordero signing…

  26. @Dave Lowenthal: Coco cordero has been consistent. Last year, he quit missing bats, but he kept getting outs. You dont have to be a strike out king to be successful. Stats are a strong indicator. But thats mostly what they are. An indicator. these are generalizations, but still, a high BA is an indication of a good hitter. A low ERA is an indicator of a good pitcher. A great OPS is a much better indicator of a hitter. A k/9, k/bb and WHIP are better indicators on pitchers. But that doesnt mean a whole bunch to a dude who may give up a hit here or there but still pitches to contact and gets people out. They can be effective, can they not? you dont have to be a stat machine to be successful.

    And you most certainly cannot fluke your way through minor leagues. You have to be immensely talented to even get a shot at the minors and mentally strong enough to make it through the rigors of everyday life. Can you fluke your way through one level of the minors? i’ll give that one, and maybe that fluke is AAA to majors. but guys fail because they cant figure it out mentally or their abilities just dont translate well, and those guys dont stick around as major leaguers for very long.

  27. @hermanbates: Cordero is a pretty good closer. You could even say he’s a very good closer. But he’s coming to the back end of his career and he is certainly not worth $8 million/year, which seems to be what he would cost to sign. If the Red Sox want to pay him that, it might not be the worst signing in the world. If WE do that, it means we’ll be going into the season with Heisey in LF everyday and Todd Frazier backing him up. Not a good scenario. We just can’t afford Coco…which is to say we currently CAN afford Coco, but we SHOULDN’T afford Coco. Which is what makes a lot of us nervous.

  28. The Reds logjam in the outfield thinned out pretty quickly with the trrade of Alonso and Sappelt. They never seriously consedred Beltran with his kind of contract and won’t sign any other highly paid player for the outfield. I wonder if Juan Pierre could be a good possiblity for 4th outfielder? He still fields well, had a reasonable OBP (.329)in 2010 and has experience as a lead-off hitter. His OBP against left handers last year was .430, so he could be a good platoon with Heisey if necessary. He made $8million last year, which was the last year of a 5 year contract and is expected to be offered quite a bit less as a non-starter for some team. The White Sox did not offer him arbitration, so there are no draft picks owed for signing him.

    • I wonder if Juan Pierre could be a good possiblity for 4th outfielder?

      I’d prefer someone like Spilborgh, or Cody Ross if his price falls which it should. Both bat righty and are good defenders, and can play all across the outfield.

  29. @Dave Lowenthal: I agree with your logic about the use of Marshall/LeCure, given the way that closers are used. I expect Marshall to close, if a closer is not picked up.

  30. @hermanbates: Eric already pretty much said this, but in any case …. I was a big supporter of CoCo’s last season, and argued that he’d successfully adapted his style of pitching. He had better command of all of his pitches than in 2010, and used his slider more and his change up much more, pitched inside more, etc.

    But of course we don’t know (just as with any other pitcher, especially relief pitcher) whether he’ll have as much success in 2012-2013. He wants 2 years and too much money.

  31. @hermanbates: Two questions:

    1. Do you think Cordero will have a .214 BABIP next year?

    2. Have you ever heard of a “AAAA hitter”, and do you believe they exist? Hell, people are calling Dave Sappelt that. Maybe the definition of “fluke” isn’t clear, but what I’m saying is that you can most certainly be a guy who has success in the minors and not in the majors.

    And by the way, Ondrusek’s career minor league ERA is 4.09. I’d like to know why I should believe that long term, it will be better in the bigs. Did he develop a new pitch? I’m open to believing there’s a reason. It does happen—see Mike Scott (though maybe he cheated).

    • @hermanbates: Two questions:

      1. Do you think Cordero will have a .214 BABIP next year?

      2. Have you ever heard of a “AAAA hitter”, and do you believe they exist?Hell, people are calling Dave Sappelt that.Maybe the definition of “fluke” isn’t clear, but what I’m saying is that you can most certainly be a guy who has success in the minors and not in the majors.

      And by the way, Ondrusek’s career minor league ERA is 4.09.I’d like to know why I should believe that long term, it will be better in the bigs.Did he develop a new pitch?I’m open to believing there’s a reason.It does happen—see Mike Scott (though maybe he cheated).

      Actually, there was something, I can’t remember what, about a change Ondrusek made…anyone remember what it was?

  32. @eric nyc: Eric: I love the Judy signing. I was just saying that he can’t quite be the equivalent of Boxberger (I can’t believe) because a major league organization DFA’d him, and every one of the 30 organizations would have loved to have Boxberger as one of their 40.

    That said, they are similar in many respects. This signing is under the radar and it could be a great signing. We could be pointing to this in August as a key bullpen signing, even.

  33. How about this for evaluating Cordero? If he had never been a closer before, would any team look at his numbers from the last 2-3 years and consider signing him to be their closer? I think pretty much all of us would agree that the answer is no. So why is he still being considered a closer? Just because he has a bunch of saves, which just means “we were already winning and I was pitching when the game ended.” We all know that saves is a horrible stat to use for evaluating relief pitchers.

    P.S. Did someone (Dave Lowenthal?) say he had a BABiP of .215? His career low was .261 (2002), career ave .298. He will be lucky to be lower than .285 next season.

    • How about this for evaluating Cordero? If he had never been a closer before, would any team look at his numbers from the last 2-3 years and consider signing him to be their closer? I think pretty much all of us would agree that the answer is no. So why is he still being considered a closer? Just because he has a bunch of saves, which just means “we were already winning and I was pitching when the game ended.” We all know that saves is a horrible stat to use for evaluating relief pitchers.

      P.S. Did someone (Dave Lowenthal?) say he had a BABiP of .215? His career low was .261 (2002), career ave .298. He will be lucky to be lower than .285 next season.

      this exactly. if you just had to pick closers based on normal pitching stats, not saves, and you looked at coco and the rest of the reds pen, there is no way that you would pick him to close. you probably wouldn’t pick him second or third either.

      and yeah, i would be surprised if coco has an ERA under 4 next year.

  34. And as far as Juan Pierre goes, if he is on this team he will be playing left and batting leadoff every day. His career obp is .345, but he has only exceeded that once since 2005 (2009). He is significantly better against lefties, but we all know Dusty wouldn’t use him as a platoon.

    • And as far as Juan Pierre goes, if he is on this team he will be playing left and batting leadoff every day.

      The thought makes me cringe with rememberances of Patterson and Taveras.

  35. Help me out, please … Why is there an automatic assumption that Chris Heisey can’t be a significant offensive contributor if allowed to be the everyday left fielder?

    I was trying to check his numbers just in games where he appeared to be in the starting lineup, at least three plate appearances, for example. That seems to be where people throw him under the bus. “He sucks when he starts” or whatever……. It appears that in the stretch where he got the most playing time, September, when he came back from an oblique injury, he hit .310 with 5 HRs in 15 games as a starter. So 15 games means he still wasn’t playing every day, what with Alonso’s cameos, Fred Lewis in there and the occasional Sappelt start, but do those numbers sound bad to you?

    In July and one game in August, 13 games, .255 and 4 homers………..In June it was only 9 games, but .308 with 4 HRs (yes, three of those were in one game)……..In May it was 14 games at .235, 1 home run……..and April was his worst month, but also the month where it appears he started in only 5 games, .167 with 1 HR.

    Would I rather have Beltran’s bat? YES!! But until you let a guy play consistently, can you really say he can’t do it?? Especially a guy who was a Minor League Player of the Year, wasn’t he??

    I’m much more worried about Rolen’s offense than Heisey’s. But Rolen is a vet, so he’ll get three months to show he stinks, but the first time Heisey has two straight 0-fors, it’s back to the bench.

    Anyway, Merry Christmas, just a disgruntled Heisey fan!

  36. @vegastypo:
    I am a big Heisey fan. Have been wanting him to get an everyday chance for 2 years. But it certainly looks like Dusty and Walt are not fans, and they are the ones who matter. I think if they came out an said “Heisey is our left fielder” the way they did with Gomes last year, most people here would be ok with it. And it might just let him relax enough to play well.

  37. 8) So many complaints. As a 70 year Reds fan, I’ve cheered for a lot of average teams in that span. At least, now we’re in win mode and I’ll put my trust in Walt, who has won before. Prospects are just that. They rarely get you to the playoffs. If you want to get there, you have to have established pitching, and that’s what we have with the addition of Latos and Marshall. It’s been a long time since we could say the Reds now have frontline pitching, and along with defense, that’s what wins.

  38. A bit off topic, but since this thread deals a lot with closers and the certainty of prospects:

    1. I think I still have 1000 Paul Householder rookie cards (plus 20 Duane Walkers) sitting around somewhere, not sure if they made the move to Switzerland or not.

    2. Does anyone else think Arredondo could enter into the discussion of who will close? My thinking here is that he is now 2 yrs removed from surgery, if he continues healing and returns to his 2008 peripherals he could be nasty.

    3. I may be in the minority, but I don’t think we are going to spring for a closer – unless they come down to the 4-5 mil range. I do expect us to sign an OF that none of us will be happy with.

    • 2.Does anyone else think Arredondo could enter into the discussion of who will close?My thinking here is that he is now 2 yrs removed from surgery, if he continues healing and returns to his 2008 peripherals he could be nasty.

      When we first signed him, I thought we had found our closer for the future. After watching him last season, he still has a lot to prove. The stuff is there, he just walked way too many batters to be trusted in high leverage situations until he shows he can perform better.

  39. @jrob45601:

    Okay, I guess I misunderstood the post. I thought the argument was that this team isn’t winning if someone gets hurt, so we might as well empty the farm system. Sorry about that.

    However, I don’t think we have to worry about Janish being the back up catcher. The Reds signed Brian Esposito to a minor league deal this week. I assume Walt will be addressing other positions this way as well. Not as good as having guys with options, but better than nothing.

  40. @Travis G.:

    Sigh. I guess you are right. I temporarily forgot about Dusty-proofing the line-up. If he had Pierre, Dusty couldn’t stop himself from running him out there all the time and poor Heisey would be back to the bench. I am a fan of Heisey and posted in another thread that I believe he could become a right handed Bruce. I still think the Reds look thin in the OF and would rather have some decent back-up there than bring back Cordero.

  41. @al: If Cordero is so valuable, why hasn’t some other team jumped on him while the Reds are twiddling their thumbs?

    My understanding is that some teams have backed out because he wants 2 years, and he’s not interested in being a setup guy (which have made some teams just not bother).

    I admit there’s the same question with Madson, but Madson wants a good deal more money, right?

  42. @Dave Lowenthal: I don’t want to sign Cordero if it’s too much money, i agree with that. But i just think that saying him or ondrusek arent good is a false claim. Cordero has reached the end of his career and i would much rather go elsewhere. But if the market thins out and cordero drops his numbers, i wouldn’t be devastated if he was resigned (say a 1 year, 5 million deal, depending on what else happens obviously). I dont want us to over pay for him. But i think id rather overpay for cordero than close by committee.

  43. @hermanbates wrote: But i think id rather overpay for cordero than close by committee.

    Congratulations, you think like a major league GM. A *bad* GM, but a GM nonetheless. So terrified of a “role”, which was created by sportswriters to explain a stupid sportswriter-created stat, that you’re willing to overpay to have a less effective team.

    My thoughts: Price is too high. Marshall is good, but most relievers have a very short shelf life. There’s risk that he’ll be less than great, and 75 less-than-great relief innings aren’t too valuable. Wood showed GREAT things in a very, very small-sample relief audition last year. Marshall was also a middling starter when he came up – why not just save the money & prospects, and just try Wood in the pen?

    Last, and this is the most ironic thing: By slavishly adhering to “bullpen roles,” resigning Cordero would force Dusty/Walt into using Marshall – ostensibly their best reliever – in the highest leverage situations. Cordero will reflexively appear in the 9th when the Reds are leading by < 3 and in tie games at home, but that's it. Marshall will pitch the 8th in close games (winning or losing), the 9th in tie games, and probably even the 7th if tough hitters are up. Unlike Cordereo, he'll enter the game with runners on base – when the game really needs "saving."

    Assuming Marshall is going to be as good as Walt does, but also assumiing Dusty will be Dusty, I hope they annoint another pitcher the Closer. I'd prefer it not be Cordero, though, because he'll cost too much and be effectively impossible to "fire" if he's ineffective.

  44. Can someone help me to understand why people here would have been okay giving Beltran 2 years at 13 million a year for a guy who is 35 and riddled with injury issues, but don’t want to give Phillips say a 5 year deal of aroun 13-15 million per year?

    • Can someone help me to understand why people here would have been okay giving Beltran 2 years at 13 million a year for a guy who is 35 and riddled with injury issues, but don’t want to give Phillips say a 5 year deal of aroun 13-15 million per year?

      well, as someone who didn’t want to sign beltran, i don’t really know. i think giving phillips that deal would be bad for the same reasons. it’s paying someone premium cash like they’re in their prime, based on numbers they put up in their primes, but paying them for years that will most likely be much worse than their primes.

  45. @dn4192:
    Cause the 2 years for Beltran would be the 2 years Votto is already under contract. So better chance to win while he is here, while not affected our payroll flexibility for a possible extension for Votto. Signing Phillips for 5 years will make it virtually impossible to sign Votto, or any other upper tier free agent.

  46. Why would it? Why is there this thought that Bob is broke? I think Bob knows what it is going to cost to sign Votto and at that point will expand the budget. You also lose Rolen and Bronson off the books at that point also.

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