A report has come out that the Reds will announce the trade this afternoon that nets Sean Marshall of the Cubs for lhp Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt, and 19-yr-old infield prospect Ronald Torreyes.

According to ESPN.com’s Keith Law, the prospects involved are Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt, a 24-year-old outfielder, made a 38-game Major League debut with the Reds last season, and Torreyes is a 19-year-old infielder who spent 2011 at Class A Dayton.

I wasn’t completely convinced that a Travis Wood for Sean Marshall swap was fair to the Reds. This trade comes straight from the Wayne Krivsky self-help book on how to significantly overpay for relievers.

We can hope that either this early report isn’t true or that there is some additional information missing. However, even an extension of Marshall wouldn’t make up for the package being sent to Chicago.

UPDATE The Reds have made the announcement official. This is a done deal, as outlined above. There’s no mention of an extension, or that the Cubs are picking up any of Marshall’s salary in the announcement.

191 Responses

  1. BubbaFan

    I hate this. This is way too much to give for one year of a relief pitcher.

    I’ll hate it a little less if the Cubs are throwing in some cash, and the Reds worked out an extension with Marshall, but still…this is awful.

  2. Jason in Toronto

    Sappelt? Marshall better be our closer.

  3. Dan

    Marshall looks very good, but this is a crazy overpay in my book.

    Sorry, I’m copying this over from 2 other threads now, but here are some quick minor league numbers on Sappelt and Torreyes:

    Torreyes: .356/.398/.457 at Dayton this year, and he’s 19 years old.

    Sappelt: Bad in the majors so far, but he’s hit .316/.374/.464 at AAA, and .361/.416/.548 at AA.

  4. Dave Lowenthal

    For Walt’s next trick, he’s going to trade Billy Hamilton for Gary Majewski.

    • Myles

      For Walt’s next trick, he’s going to trade Billy Hamilton for Gary Majewski.

      Wow, this trade is one of the more insanely lopsided trades I can remember.

  5. Jason in Toronto

    Both guys are on the fringes of our top 20 prospects, but we can’t keep giving up on some of these guys when we’ve already dealt Alonso, Boxburger and Grandal.

    So, like I said, Marshall better close.

  6. dn4192

    Sorry but don’t see the big deal in this trade. There is zero chance Sapplet would have had any major contributions to the major league roster and the other kid is 19 and probably at least 2-3 years away at best from even sniffing the majors. So for me we gave up Wood for Marshall and that is it, we need to stop putting so much value in minor league guys.

  7. BubbaFan

    I don’t think Sap’s too bad in the majors. Yes, he had a really rough start, but he visibly improved as time went on. Power and patience both got noticeably better as he adjusted to the big leagues. Not to mention defense and baserunning.

    And he was useful as insurance. I guess now Heisey will be the CF backup, and Phipps the insurance. I like Phipps, but I’m not convinced he’s for real. A real late bloomer, if he is.

  8. CP

    @Jason in Toronto: I think they would have been top 10 this year, but near the bottom.

    Talent wise, this deal isn’t a disaster. That doesn’t mean the Reds didn’t make an idiotic trade. People defending this trade aren’t looking at the players involved like assets. When someone buys a car, they don’t pay the car dealer an extra $2k. It might not cause them any real damage. But it doesn’t make it any less idiotic.

    • dn4192

      @CP: I think they would have been top 10 this year, but near the bottom.Talent wise, this deal isn’t a disaster. That doesn’t mean the Reds didn’t make an idiotic trade. People defending this trade aren’t looking at the players involved like assets. When someone buys a car, they don’t pay the car dealer an extra $2k. It might not cause them any real damage. But it doesn’t make it any less idiotic.

      If someone wants a specific car that there are few of and very tough to get, yes then on occasions they will pay more for it over the base model.

      I look at it this way, what is eaiser to replace a 4th outfield and a low A 2nd basemen or a stud of a pitcher who is a lefty and can get both righties and lefties out.

  9. Drew Mac

    If Marshall was extended and will close, I like it. If not, I am a bit concerned.

  10. jrob45601

    My problem with the 2 trades (I do love the Latos trade), is pretty simple.

    WHAT IF SOMEONE GETS HURT?

    Forget being innefective. Has anyone looked at the AAA roster as of right now? There isn’t really anyone who has put up good numbers for more than a couple months at Louisville. At any position. Any reinforcements we have coming this year if needed are going to have a couple months in AAA at most.

    • Myles

      My problem with the 2 trades (I do love the Latos trade), is pretty simple.

      WHAT IF SOMEONE GETS HURT?

      Forget being innefective. Has anyone looked at the AAA roster as of right now? There isn’t really anyone who has put up good numbers for more than a couple months at Louisville. At any position. Any reinforcements we have coming this year if needed are going to have a couple months in AAA at most.

      If someone important gets hurt, this team doesn’t win anything. Period.

      • BubbaFan

        If someone important gets hurt, this team doesn’t win anything. Period.

        Disagree. Teams always suffer injuries of one kind or another. The 2008 Rays were kind of lucky in that department, but you can’t depend on that. Depth matters. Remember last year, when Hanigan was on the DL, Ramon had bad knees, Corky was catching, and Janish was the emergency backup catcher? And this year, the Cards lost Wainwright for the entire season, but won anyway.

        More likely are shorter term injuries. It’s nice to have guys with options left, so the Reds can call them up without risking losing them when it’s time to send them down again.

        Even one game can make a difference…as the Cards proved this year.

  11. rayman5000

    What this tells me is that Walt is not done…

    • jrob45601

      What this tells me is that Walt is not done…

      But they keep saying we don’t have any money to spend. And he couldn’t possibly find any more minor leaguers to trade for something we need, can he? The only guys left are at least a couple years away, or named Homer Bailey. Sure, maybe Bailey can get us something, but then what happens when a starter gets hurt?

  12. TC

    I realize Dave Sappelt is just a prospect and at last report has many holes in his game yet to be refined, but I would not have dealt him straight up for RP Sean Marshall.

    The deal doesn’t seem logical. I hope the front office knows what they are doing because I’m starting to have questions.

    • Travis G.

      I realize Dave Sappelt is just a prospect and at last report has many holes in his game yet to be refined, but I would not have dealt him straight up for RP Sean Marshall.

      This is without a doubt the most illogical thing I’ve ever read on this site. Sappelt is the very definition of replacement player. Marshall has been one of the 10 best relievers in all of baseball (in terms of WAR) the past two seasons; the only other reliever to make the top 10 each year was Axford. He doesn’t even cost all that much $$.

      Torreyes might be good in about four or five years, but I’d like to think we’ll find three or four more guys just like him by then. He’s not going to help the Joey Votto-era Reds win anything unless he’s dealt for ML talent. Joey Vottos don’t exactly grow on trees.

      • Jason Linden

        Sappelt is the very definition of replacement player.

        @Travis G.:
        This is hyperbole every bit as much as the comment you were arguing with. Sappelt and Alonso are almost exactly the same age. Their hitting stats have been eerily similar overall. Yet, Alonso is a top prospect and Sappelt is a scrub. That’s something I’ve never understood. I get the arguments about potential and I would also value Alonso over Sappelt, but that doesn’t make Sappelt worthless.

      • al

        Sappelt and Alonso are almost exactly the same age. Their hitting stats have been eerily similar overall. Yet, Alonso is a top prospect and Sappelt is a scrub. That’s something I’ve never understood. I get the arguments about potential and I would also value Alonso over Sappelt, but that doesn’t make Sappelt worthless.

        this is why scouting is still important. you look at alonso and you can see a big stong dude, with great balance, and a compact swing with basically no holes. good patience, more power to come (remember the injury he had that killed his power in the minors).

        looking at sappelt, man, he looked like a mess. he swung from his shoes on everything, never took a pitch, swung one handed most of the time. his whole swing looked like a hole. if a pitcher didn’t put one belt high and in he couldn’t do a thing with it.

        maybe he’ll make adjustments, but he’s gonna get abused by big leaguers for a while, maybe forever. in the minors he just faced worse pitchers and that crap worked. add to that that he was lost in the field and on the bases.

        i was scared to have him on the reds this year. i think more time at AAA is in order.

  13. CP

    They have to bring in at least 1 OF, maybe an additional guy for the 40 man. Crisp is the top FA OF on the market. A trade for Seth Smith would work okay in LF (though Heisey isn’t really a guy for a platoon). Cody Ross makes no sense. Ugh.

    • jrob45601

      They have to bring in at least 1 OF, maybe an additional guy for the 40 man.Crisp is the top FA OF on the market.A trade for Seth Smith would work okay in LF (though Heisey isn’t really a guy for a platoon).Cody Ross makes no sense.Ugh.

      Why do people keep talking about Seth Smith to platoon with Heisey? He hits lefties even worse than Heisey does. And who would we have left to trade for Smith?

  14. Dave Lowenthal

    @dn4192: You really have no idea what you are talking about. Why not just trade every last one of the Reds prospects away, then? If your answer to that is “no”, then there IS a cost to dealing prospects. Which is it?

  15. David

    The Reds gave up Wood and their 20th and 22nd ranked prospects for a year of Sean Marshall? You’ve got to be kidding me.

    Think of this.

    Rhodes (w/ Reds):

    2009 – 53.1 IP; 8.10 K/9; .51 HR/9; 78.1 LOB%; 1.07 WHIP; ERA- 59
    2010 – 55.0 IP; 8.19 K/9; .65 HR/9; 83.7 LOB%; 1.02 WHIP; ERA- 56

    Marshall:
    2010 – 74.2 IP;10.85 K/9; .36 HR/9; 74.3 LOB%; 1.11 WHIP; ERA- 63
    2011 – 75.2 IP; 9.40 K/9; .12 HR/9; 76.6 LOB%; 1.10 WHIP; ERA- 57

    1) Rhodes was great when he was a Red. He more than paid for his 2 year, $4 million contract, but the Reds balked at paying him 3 million in 2011, and Rhodes signed with the Rangers. Why then are the Reds okay with paying Marshall 3 million in 2012 AND giving up Wood and two top 25 prospects in the process? It is illogical.

    2) The Reds can put together a bullpen without having to sacrifice prospects. There are a plethora of relievers on the market, like Rhodes was, who can put up great numbers for the Reds. I will guarantee that a FA reliever making 3.1 million or less in 2012 will have as good if not a better year than Marshall. Hell, George Sherrill could be that guy.

  16. pinson343

    I had said I only approve if the prospects are not top 20, and these are both top 20, but barely. Marshall is not your ordinary reliever, he’s “one of the best in baseball” (quoting FanGraphs). That leaves me on the fence, but for 2012 he’l be a big help.

    He will either be the closer or the setup guy for high-leverage situations. Prior to his acquisition, the Reds bullpen sucks. And without a bullpen, 2012 would turn into a very frustrating season.

  17. Dave Lowenthal

    @dn4192: Also, I don’t see how you can say that Sappelt would not contribute—he might have played some this year—what about ineffectiveness or injury? Injury being more likely. Maybe the Reds will get Paul Householder if Heisey gets hurt.

  18. Drew Mac

    @rayman5000: I agree. I would not be surprised if a big OF bat is coming in the form of a trade (think salary dump from some team that will not likely contend this year).

  19. TC

    To be honest, I was familiar with Ronald Torreyes. But 2 to 3 years from now we will all be saying, “You remember, we traded him for that reliever a few years back. Oh, what was his name? Too bad, because this Torreyes guy’s a stud.”

  20. Dave Lowenthal

    @David: I agree with your sentiment completely, but (1) Rhodes was old, and (2) while there IS someone who will best Marshall’s numbers, it’s hard to know who that’ll be, and Marshall will probably be good.

    That said, this trade is a HUGE mistake.

    • David

      @David: I agree with your sentiment completely, but (1) Rhodes was old, and (2) while there IS someone who will best Marshall’s numbers, it’s hard to know who that’ll be, and Marshall will probably be good.That said, this trade is a HUGE mistake.

      1) Rhodes was old and the Reds probably expected regression, and to that point he did regress. But, to that same end, there is no guarantee that Marshall will duplicate 2010 or 2011. From 2010 to 2011 Marshall was a very different pitcher than he was the prior two years. 1.5 WAR over those years compared to 5.0 WAR over the last two seasons. What’s to say you won’t get the 2008 or 2009 version? Rhodes and Marshall were substantially similar pitchers based on the numbers above. If the dollars are the same, then you have to think that Jocketty values the risk aversion of the two to be the equivalent of Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes. That’s baffling.

      2) I agree that in some respects you have to catch lightning in a bottle on FAs. Still, even if you try and fail, nobody is running away with the Central. You can always add Marshall or someone else in July.

  21. Drew Mac

    @jrob45601: If Marshall closes, that saves about 3.5 million or so. Combine that with the money saved from Volquez and Alonso’s departure, and that’s about 7-8 million. Combine that with the money that Jocketty was still supposed to be sitting on and I believe he may have created about 12-14 million dollars in salary room. I could be a bit off, but it seems like he has been clearing room for something big (or two medium sized pieces).

  22. Bill Lack

    Bad deal…. The thing I like about the Latos deal was the Reds have control of him for a few years, this is 3 guys (2 of whom could have helped this team this year and one who is a hitting machine with good defense) for one year of control of a guy that’ll throw 70 innings or so?

    This is insanity.

    • TC

      Bad deal…. The thing I like about the Latos deal was the Reds have control of him for a few years, this is 3 guys (2 of whom could have helped this team this year and one who is a hitting machine with good defense) for one year of control of a guy that’ll throw 70 innings or so?

      This is insanity.

      This is why Bill is an editor. My thoughts exactly.

    • dn4192

      Bad deal…. The thing I like about the Latos deal was the Reds have control of him for a few years, this is 3 guys (2 of whom could have helped this team this year and one who is a hitting machine with good defense) for one year of control of a guy that’ll throw 70 innings or so?This is insanity.

      the hitting machine is in low A, there is no way to know if that hitting will continue. As for Dave, I would have been shocked if he came north and would have spent most of the season in AAA. That leaves Wood, who I do like but not sure where he would have been on the roster, he is not bullpen material.

      I also have to think that the Reds feel they can sign him to an extension or why else have the physical? They didn’t get a physical for Latos.

  23. jrob45601

    I know it’s not set in stone, but it has been said multiple times that Marshall will not be the closer and they are still looking for someone. So the money from the Latos trade is spent on Marshall, and still looking at $6-8mil on a closer (at least).

  24. Dave Lowenthal

    @jrob45601: I will bet anyone here that they’re getting a closer for 6-8M, and in the upper part of that range. I’ll also bet it’s going to be my buddy Cordero.

    • jrob45601

      @jrob45601: I will bet anyone here that they’re getting a closer for 6-8M, and in the upper part of that range.I’ll also bet it’s going to be my buddy Cordero.

      The only worse way to spend that kind of money would be on an extension for Rolen or Arroy.


      Damn.

  25. TC

    What if anything goes wrong in 2012? Latos or Cueto get injured? Arroyo doesn’t bounce back? Bailey regresses? Leake gets arrested again? Votto pulls a muscle? If any of these happen 2012 could be a wasted year.

    That is the value of prospects. To keep us hoping. Now all the hope is in 2012. Hope everything goes right.

    I wonder, does Walt think the world is going to end on December 21, 2012 or something?

    • dn4192

      What if anything goes wrong in 2012? Latos or Cueto get injured? Arroyo doesn’t bounce back? Bailey regresses? Leake gets arrested again? Votto pulls a muscle? If any of these happen 2012 could be a wasted year. That is the value of prospects. To keep us hoping. Now all the hope is in 2012. Hope everything goes right.I wonder, does Walt think the world is going to end on December 21, 2012 or something?

      If that happens you flip Marshall, if he continues to be as strong as he has been there will be a market for him come the trading deadline and you get a couple of prospects back.

  26. John

    As to “what if someone gets hurt”? If you go through life hanging on to everything because you’re afraid something bad will happen, then nothing good will happen. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. So far they’ve traded blocked players, a #7 starter, and two prospects who’ve never played a day in the majors. They now have a #2 starter and a LH hammer in the bullpen to replace Chapman when they move Chapman to the rotation. Oh, and they still have Bill Bray on the 25-man and the Horst kid at AAA. (By the way, Kearns for Bray looks pretty good now, huh?)

  27. rayman5000

    Given Walt’s reputation, I find it unlikely that he didn’t evaluate this deal from 75 different angles. He likely has a plan (I hope) for future deals this winter that will fill all the supposed “holes” that Sappelt and Wood and Alonso and Grandal have left. I like this trade because it locks down a shaky bullpen. However, if there are no further deals this winter…then I will be a bit skeptical.

    • David

      Given Walt’s reputation, I find it unlikely that he didn’t evaluate this deal from 75 different angles. He likely has a plan (I hope) for future deals this winter that will fill all the supposed “holes” that Sappelt and Wood and Alonso and Grandal have left. I like this trade because it locks down a shaky bullpen. However, if there are no further deals this winter…then I will be a bit skeptical.

      Jocketty is making deals based on priority. He has limited resources both in terms of cash and prospects. By the time he ends up addressing LF, there might not be much left to deal. There also aren’t a lot of RH LFs that fit the bill, perhaps Quentin or Swisher? We might not have the prospects to get those guys at this point.

  28. TC

    @dn4192: Huh? Sappelt was a hitting machine in AAA and Reds Spring Training last year. Not sure what you mean.

    • dn4192

      @TC: Huh? Sappelt was a hitting machine in AAA and Reds Spring Training last year. Not sure what you mean.

      How many AAA/ST greats also been ML busts? He showed when called up there were many holes in his game and he was no where near ready to be an everyday major league player at this point. Maybe in 13 or 14 but not now.

  29. John

    If the Reds have $8m to spend, then my question is can they get Ryan Madson for that money instead of Cordero?

  30. TC

    @John: John. You’ve inspired me to cash out my retirement account and head to the boats for Christmas.

  31. CKeever

    Everyone needs to look back at the blog posts a month ago. So many people were screaming at Walt to make a move. He’s made some moves to make the club a lot better. We don’t win games based on how the minor league teams do. I’m excited for the season. It’s time to win some games and not just talk about how good the prospects are. It’s gonna be a good year and I can’t wait until spring.

  32. jrob45601

    @TC:
    Problem with 6 for Cordero for me, is that he wouldn’t be the best reliever on the staff. Probably not the 2nd best, either. So why pay him like he is, and use him like he is?

    This is the kind of trade that small market clubs should be making. Identify a guy who was dominant in the 8th inning, with lots of strikeouts and ground balls, with good left/right splits, and then trade for him to pay him 8th inning money to be your closer. But the Reds seem to be trying to mess up a very smart move by signing a not very good and getting worse closer.

  33. TC

    @dn4192: My bad. I reread your post. Makes sense. You are correct. I stand corrected.

  34. rayman5000

    @CKeever: Agree completely. I’d rather be excited for 2012 and the possibility of a playoff team, than worry about what will happen in 2014 and beyond. There are people that are paid to do that…and I’m guessing they are pretty good at it.

  35. John

    @TC: You’re equating riverboat casino gambling with evaluating athletic ability. I’m glad you’re not the GM.

    • dn4192

      @Dave Lowenthal
      : Or the 3rd, 4th, or 5th. Cordero is bad.

      Why the Hate for Co-Co? If they get him at a fair price what is the issue?

  36. jrob45601

    I don’t want anyone to mistake my disagreement with this trade as lack of enthusiasm about this season. I agree that the 25 man roster is better now than it was last week. This could be a very good year to be a Reds fan.

    Some call me a pessimist (I prefer realist), because I try to look at what bad things might happen. Injuries, ineffectiveness, Chapman’s innings limit. All these things happen. And as of right now, the Reds are not prepared for any of that, at hardly any position. So I’m worried that if someone gets hurt, not only is 2012 a lost cause, but now we don’t have anything coming to help in the next 2-3 years either.

  37. Dave Lowenthal

    @dn4192: Yeah, maybe they can flip him for Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes.

  38. jrob45601

    @Dave Lowenthal:
    I agree. But if you look hard enough, you may be able to make an arguement about him being 3rd or 4th. But no one can make a claim that he is better than Marshall or Bray. I was trying to make it easy.

  39. TC

    If this goings balls-up and the Reds are struggling at the deadline, I suspect a fire sale of sorts. This would include trading Votto (which may not be a bad move depending on what they get in return).

    All we are saying is we belief Walt is paying $120 bucks for a $50 dollar value. With the Latos deal, he paid $400 bucks for a $200 dollar value. (Those are the numbers I see when I think of the trades.)

  40. TC

    @dn4192: How many Major League greats have had numbers like Sappealt? Most I suspect.

  41. hermanbates

    This is a good trade. Something will get done, whether it’s money from the cubs or an extension. You guys complain so much. Literally one of the most disappointing fan bases of any franchise. Why do you make a trade? To improve your club. Wood is a 4. Baileys ceiling is higher, Leakes ceiling is higher, Chpamans is wayyyy higher and cueto and latos are past that. PLUS you have Robert Stephenson who has an atrociously high ceiling. WE DID NOT NEED WOOD OR EITHER OF THE OTHER TWO. Keeping those guys was going to keep our bull pen crappy. Give to get. Give to get. This is how it works. Yet whine and complain, whine and complain. What would happen if a cardinals fan stumbled onto this site? He’d be like, “WOW, those reds are some WLB”. And he’d be right. A Krivsky move is giving up a regular for Majewski. In this instance Marshall isn’t Majewski, and NONE of the guys we gave up are or will be regulars. You guys would stumble across a bar of gold covered in dirt and throw it away because you didn’t like the dirt! Unreal guys.
    GOOD TRADE WALT

  42. TC

    @hermanbates: Disagree except with the Magewski point.

    The whole point of sites like these is to discuss and debate. To us, that is fun and most of us enjoy doing it without getting our feathers too ruffled. We are not the John Fay crowd in which I would agree with you.

    I’ve read most of these guys here for many years and they are anything but complainers. Well, most.

    This is a bad trade and as one who has invested time and money into my favorite sport and my favorite team I will say so. No one will shame me otherwise.

    • dn4192

      @hermanbates: Disagree except with the Magewski point. The whole point of sites like these is to discuss and debate. To us, that is fun and most of us enjoy doing it without getting our feathers too ruffled. We are not the John Fay crowd in which I would agree with you. I’ve read most of these guys here for many years and they are anything but complainers. Well, most. This is a bad trade and as one who has invested time and money into my favorite sport and my favorite team I will say so. No one will shame me otherwise.

      What role did you see either minor league player having on the Reds say in 2012 or 2013 or 2014?

  43. al

    i’m a little surprised by the guys we included, but this really doesn’t change things very much for me, i still like it.

    sappelt looked overmatched last year, he’s going to be a AAAA player and the only thing that offers is a little depth.

    torreyes has gawdy numbers but he put them up in leagues where someone who weighs 140 lbs can put up gawdy numbers. he does not project to be a star. in fact, he probably projects to be dave sappelt, except he’s probably 3 years away. eh.

    the deal still all hinges on travis wood. if you see him as a third starter at some point (better than league average) then the cubs got a good deal. if he’s a 5th starter (below league average) then the cubs dealt one of their most valuable pieces for 3 guys who will be below average major leaguers. how does that help them?

    wood has put up one season of each. so who is he really?

  44. hermanbates

    @David: We’ve got the prospects. We still have billy hamilton, Yorman Rodriguez, Kyle Lotzkar, Drew Cisco, Denis Phipps, Robert Stephenson, Daniel Renken and a number of others.

    The Fact that we still have Hamilton and Rodriguez, two of our top four, is a good sign. But yorman rodriguez is a good centerpiece for any trade, seeing as he has the tools to be a good to better than good player but wont be ready until 2014 or beyond. And he’s the type of guy we can sell high on because he is so young and is so toolsy. I wouldn’t expect him to remain a red, but i’d use yorman as the centerpiece for a trade to oakland for Bailey. He’ll be blooming really about the same time oakland moves into their new stadium

    • al

      @David: But yorman rodriguez is a good centerpiece for any trade, seeing as he has the tools to be a good to better than good player but wont be ready until 2014 or beyond. And he’s the type of guy we can sell high on because he is so young and is so toolsy. I wouldn’t expect him to remain a red, but i’d use yorman as the centerpiece for a trade to oakland for Bailey. He’ll be blooming really about the same time oakland moves into their new stadium

      i think this is a pretty interesting idea, and the direction the reds should be thinking now (or even before the marshall trade).

      they have thinned the MLB/AAA depth so far, i think any more moves have to come from prospects in the lower minors that can be replaced more easily through the draft.

  45. TC

    @dn4192: I saw Sappealt as the #5 OF this year. Regardless, I am not just a fan of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds.

    I’ve read several comments that would suggest the only value in a player in the entire Reds system is how they contribute to the 2012 Reds. I find that whole argument irrational.

    • dn4192

      @dn4192: I saw Sappealt as the #5 OF this year. Regardless, I am not just a fan of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds. I’ve read several comments that would suggest the only value in a player in the entire Reds system is how they contribute to the 2012 Reds. I find that whole argument irrational.

      When you have talent in the minors blocked by much better and young talent in the show exactly what are you suppose to do with said minor league talent? You can:

      1. Let them sit and rot in the minors

      2. Use them as trade pieces to improve your major league club.

      Which option do you prefer?

  46. TC

    @hermanbates: You continue to show me that you see no value at all in prospects and the farm system.

    Votto was a product of the Reds farm system and was a prospect of 7 years. Ah, but in 2005 he had no value to you I guess. Bruce was a product of the Reds farm system of 4 years. So was Cueto, Stubbs, and Hannigan.

    I am happy you are not the GM.

  47. hermanbates

    @TC: I love prospects. I think they’re great.And heres whats better. We get fifty draft picks and allotted cash for international prospects. We will always have prospects. And heres another thing. If things dont work out and we have to trade votto, we’ll get a surplus of prospects. But prospects are just that. You continue to show me you have no value in trading to make your team better.

    I am happy you are not the GM.

    • TC

      @I love prospects. I think they’re great. …

      I am happy you are not the GM.

      You need some of those prospects to actually make it to the big league team before they get traded for a 1 year relief pitcher, I don’t care how good he is. The Reds will play over 1500 innings this year. Marshall will play the defensive half of 70 of them. Ten of those innings we’ll likely wish he didn’t. That is not a lot of value, I don’t care how good he is.

      As to the second part, I suppose I had that coming.

  48. TC

    Another thing, I have been a huge supporter of WJ and I will continue to be. I am very happy with the two guys he brought in and agree trades had to be made to improve the 2012 Reds. I simply think that the price paid for these two outstanding guys far exceeds their value.

  49. al

    the part that really gets me about these moves, as others have mentioned, is how thin the reds are now. we’ve consolidated a lot of players into a two, and now we’re looking pretty lean, especially in SP and outfield.

    we have 5 big league starters + chapman. is that enough to get through the season? probably not. lecure? seems like we need to bring in some guys to fill out the AAA rotation.

    we now have 3 big league outfielders, one of whom has never played fulltime + frazier. i guess there’s this phipps guy, but that’s not much to bank on. seems like we need another real player.

    the trade shelves are looking pretty bare. i like the idea of using some of this money we’ve saved to take on a salary, and not for a closer.

  50. hermanbates

    Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes wont be playing 70 of those on either half.

  51. TC

    @hermanbates: I’m betting Wood would. I actually think he’s going to be an excellent starting pitcher very soon if not in 2012. Sappealt, most likely if he was the 5th OF.

  52. Dave Lowenthal

    @hermanbates: You’re full of baloney. This site was overwhelmingly happy about the Latos trade.

  53. TC

    @dn4192: Now that is a fine point. I find that logical. Still though, I wouldn’t pay for a relief pitcher with a starting pitcher, nor a likely every day guy.

    I suppose the argument comes down to the difference in value we place in Wood and Sappealt. I’m not going to make any arguments for Torreyes because he has not been around enough for anyone to have any idea of his value. It’s possible one day he’s been a Hall of Famer. It is just as likely he’s driving a truck in 2013.

  54. Dave Lowenthal

    @dn4192: Hmmm. Let me think. Because he’s very likely to be the worst pitcher in the bullpen, and moreoever, also be below average. Why would I want to pay 10% of my payroll for that?

  55. TC

    The Reds are committed now to this 2012 approach. Walt has put the Reds all in. I’m not happy about it, but he can’t stop now. Seems the farm system will need to continue to bleed out this winter.

  56. eric nyc

    Anyone else getting the impression Walt might be thinking of retiring soon? I mean I’m on board for going all in to win this year and next, but Walt is burning down the farm system now. This seems like the actions of a guy who doesn’t plan to be here in 3 years and just wants to put his name on a trophy before he walks away. If it works, I won’t complain. But if 2014 rolls around and Walt is waving goodbye to a decimated club that hadn’t gone deep in the playoffs, I’m going to be plenty pissed. It does seem like he has been working towards this kind of move since he got here, though. I just don’t know if he’s done enough. It’s not like he cashed in all his chips and suddenly we’re the Phillies. This roster still looks pretty average to me. Not bad, but not championship caliber.

  57. al

    i don’t remember who floated the swisher idea, but was there any substance to that. i would love to have him as an everyday lf. heisey as #4, frazier as supersub.

    wonder what it would take to get him.

  58. CKeever

    @TC: Reds have 3 picks in the top 50 this year, more to come. I don’t think the farm system is bleeding out. We don’t have money like big markets. Being able to compete might cause us to trade away some prospects. So be it. The future must come sometime.

  59. dn4192

    It’s interesting how some get so worked up over a trade before seeing how it pans out. I remember this trade the Reds did a while back, sent the next HOF OF and very good SS to the Nationals for some pitchers and wow you would have thought the world had come to an end and in the end it wasn’t that bad of a deal at all. I think we need to wait and see before we know who got “took” and who didn’t…

  60. TC

    @CKeever: Your words are soothing but I think the farm system is bleeding out a bit as it must at times. When you don’t have the cash of the big market you have to rely on another sort of trading chip, value of your prospects. You can use them like cash to trade for those pieces you need. Or you can use them to fill your own club. The Reds have been skilled under Walt to use it for both purposes.

    I think those 3 picks may be just the reason for opening the flood gates. Notice they are leaving the studs who will be ready in 2 to 3 years alone since that is when the team will need new blood. That is encouraging.

    Even though Marshall at this point is only a 1 year player, it seems WJ is setting up the team to compete in 2012 and 2013.

  61. al

    @dn4192: that’s not a good point, that’s obvious, right?

    doesn’t make much sense on a discussion site. you’re welcome to come back and check in in august if you feel like waiting, but for now people are using the facts we have now to see what the trade looks like for now.

    here’s the thing about that trade with the nats. everyone likes to say “oh, see how it worked out, it really WAS a good deal.” well, no. what it was was a terrible trade that happened to go sour for the team that scammed the other. which makes it look like “a wash” for both team.

    but the reds traded so much of value in that deal. there was a reason that EVERY analyst said it was a bad deal for the reds. it wasn’t because it was guaranteed to work out for the nats, it was because for all those players, the reds should have gotten A LOT more.

    we can say, “see, we got bray.” the problem is, it’s impossible to prove a counter-factual, so that’s all we have to go on. but based on what we gave up, we should be saying “see we got bray, and this stud who was their best position player prospect at the time.”

    and that’s what we’re discussing now on this site. whether the reds are using their resources well, based on their value. if marshall turns out to be good, and wood et al. suck. that still doesn’t mean it was a good deal at the time, if we should have been able to get marshall and a good prospect.

  62. Dave Lowenthal

    BTW the Reds picked up Josh Judy from the Indians on waivers. What a great name for a pitcher, I wonder if he goes by “Punch”.

    In any case, it’s kind of strange a pitcher like that would be available on waivers. Said MLBTR:

    Judy, 25, was a 34th-round draft pick for the Tribe in 2007. He made his Major League debut last season, posting a 7.07 ERA in 14 innings out of the Cleveland bullpen. Judy has some impressive numbers over five seasons in the minors (career 2.81 ERA, 10.4 K/9 rate, 2.4 K/BB ratio), so it’s not surprising he was claimed. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now at 37.

    I like this move.

    • Tom Diesman

      Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now at 37.

      Anyone know what the deal with Andrew Brackman is? I had read that he was signed to a major league deal, yet he is not yet on the 40 man roster. He’d be #38.

  63. al

    @dn4192: put another way, based on your current facts, you want to feel like at a minimum there is a 50/50 chance that the players you get will improve your club than they players you trade. hopefully you it’s more like 70/30 or more.

    with the the reds and nats, at the time, it looked like there was a 5/95 chance that the players we got would be better for us going forward than the players we gave up. it just happened that that 5% chance came through.

    but that’s not the sort of organizational planning you want, because 19 times out of 20 you lose that bet.

  64. al

    @Dave Lowenthal: moves like this and the andrew brackman signing definitely make losing boxy a little easier to take. those minor league numbers are strong.

    also shows that it’s not that hard to build a bullpen on the cheap.

    man i hope we don’t sign coco.

  65. TC

    Did the Indians just pick up a haul (or are about to)? For the life of me I don’t see why you waive a guy like that.

  66. CKeever

    We still have the No. 9 prospect in the farm system- Todd Frazier. Also, Heisey was our minor league player of the year in 2009. These are top prospects that we will give a chance to play this year. Not a lot of people seem to be happy about them playing a lot though. I thought we need to keep all our top prospects though, right? So here are 2 top prospects that we groomed and moved up to the big leagues, because they are top prospects. Yet people don’t think these guys can fill a full time outfield role. The Reds have brought prospects up to play and people aren’t satisfied. The Reds have traded prospects for proven MLB players and people aren’t satisfied. So the Reds are damned if the do, damned if they don’t in the court of hometown public opinion. Oh the insanity…

  67. TC

    Judy had a 4.85 ERA going in to his last game of the season with the Tribe. In a small sample size, all you need is one bad inning. He’s got good peripherals except, ummm WOW, he’s a fly ball pitcher. Over half of the his earned runs given up can off the long ball.

    Looks to be very similar in stats and history to Logan Ondrusek.

  68. CKeever

    @al: I think what dn4192 is trying to say is that there is no reason for people to flip out yet. Opinions and discussions are good all around. But there’s no reason to fly off the handlebars because of moves that nobody on here has a say in. Nobody on here is a GM. Nobody talks to Walt and knows exactly what the plan is. The franchise isn’t a democracy. There is a lot to be positive about because of these moves. I guess we’ll have to see how it all pans out.

  69. al

    @CKeever: i agree, that there does appear to be a little bit of a double standard.

    that said, they WERE top prospects once, but both have lost a little luster. heisey was never actually a top rated prospect, he overperformed what people thought he would do in the minors. now it looks like his projected ceiling was about right, a good 4th outfielder.

    frazier was once very highly regarded, but then he moved off short, stopped having a single position, and then had his worst year with the bat. that took the shine off. now he looks more like a good utility player.

    your point is a good one though, that it shows what “top prospects” often turn into: role players. it’s too easy to think about minor league numbers as a guarantee.

  70. CKeever

    @al: Besides, isn’t the world supposed to end in 2012? It’s 2012 or bust for all teams. Maybe that’s why Pujols went to the Angels…their God’s team. haha

    • TC

      @al: Besides, isn’t the world supposed to end in 2012? It’s 2012 or bust for all teams.Maybe that’s why Pujols went to the Angels…their God’s team.haha

      LOL 😆

  71. TC

    @CKeever: That’s never been the argument at all.

    But to address your points. To think every prospect is a winner is not realistic. (I like both of those players you mention by the way. Neither has reached his potential) You can make any point you want by mentioning two prospects. Kind of follows the whole small sample size trend.

    I can make any argument I want about the benefit of prospects if I just mention Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. But it wouldn’t make my assertions any more correct.

    As our venerated poster (Al) said, we are discussing the particulars of the trade at hand, not all trades in general. Those of us who do not like the trade have liked others, even when they include prospects.

    When you don’t have cash, you trade with your only other means of value, your prospects. Over paying is over paying no matter the tender.

  72. Dave Lowenthal

    Jocketty: Marshall is a “possibility” as closer, if the #Reds don’t sign a closer. Still talking to Cordero.

    Translation: “I’m signing someone to close.”

    • dn4192

      Jocketty: Marshall is a “possibility” as closer, if the #Reds don’t sign a closer. Still talking to Cordero.Translation: “I’m signing someone to close.”

      Are you against the Reds signing Cordero totally or against it depending on what we pay him?

      • al

        Are you against the Reds signing Cordero totally or against it depending on what we pay him?

        cordero’s BABIP against last year was an absurd .214. i think there is a very real possibility that if he comes back he could have an ERA over 4.

        i like the guy, and i actually think that signing him was good because it really stabilized the pen. but at this point he seems like the type of guy i would pay $1-$2mil for as a middle reliever and hope to get another lucky season out of.

        but he’s got the closer label, and so he’s gonna close games for someone, probably for more than $5mil. i hope it’s not us.

  73. al

    @CKeever: I don’t think anyone’s flying off the handle, just some disagreement.

    And I was actually just arguing that it is reasonable to say that a trade sucks, even if it works out differently than it looked like it would at the time of the trade.

    I think I’ve made my opinion of the current trade pretty clear, I’m pretty ok with it. The prospects we gave up were a little better than what I thought would be included, but no one I’m really going to miss. It all comes down to wood.

    replacement level starting pitchers are easy to find, cheap 3rd starters aren’t. i like marshall for the first a lot, and i hate marshall for the second. wood is probably somewhere in between, which makes it probably a fair trade.

    i think the prospects make it a little bit of an overpay. like i would have liked them to pay some salary or something. but given the win now mode, now is the time to overpay.

  74. TC

    The Coco question…

    Can you have the man on your team without having the closer?

    If there was ever a class act, it is Francisco Cordero. But while he racked up the saves, his peripherals would seem to indicate that was a fluke. It seemed though the more pressure the situation, the better he pitched. Up by three runs meant it was going to be scary. Up by one run against a division foe in a rubber match, he was money.

    He is a guy who I’d like to have back depending on the cost. I don’t see a way to get him back at a reasonable price though.

  75. TC

    @al: Maybe the Cardinals will sign him for another 4 year, $48 Million. Now that would be a Christmas present.

  76. al

    @TC: they do seem to keep betting on old guys. i’m about ready for it to stop working for them. berkman was so insane last year, i thought that was a huge mistake.

    beltran could be another one this year. a 34 year old with the injuries he’s had and the miles he’s put on his legs, he could fall off the map.

    or he could blow up like berkman did. seems like that’s been their luck.

  77. Dave Lowenthal

    @dn4192: Considering he’ll get all high leverage innings and they will NEVER get rid of him no matter how horrible he is (unlike Ryan Franklin’s handling, say, where he lasted about 2 weeks before they banished him to mop up man and then cut him), I do not want him under any circumstances.

    • dn4192

      @dn4192: Considering he’ll get all high leverage innings and they will NEVER get rid of him no matter how horrible he is (unlike Ryan Franklin’s handling, say, where he lasted about 2 weeks before they banished him to mop up man and then cut him), I do not want him under any circumstances.

      Do you consider his performance last year as horrible or horrible given what he was paid? Since the Reds are not going with anyone in house to close, they are going to sign someone, what better options are avaiable in your opinion on the FA market?

      • al

        Do you consider his performance last year as horrible or horrible given what he was paid?Since the Reds are not going with anyone in house to close, they are going to sign someone, what better options are available in your opinion on the FA market?

        i don’t think his season last year was horrible at all, it was good, but lucky based on the number of outs he got on balls in play. you can’t bet it’s gonna happen again.

        ryan madson stands out, but he’s gonna get paid. he’s only 30, and has better numbers than cordero pretty much anyway you look at it. he’s probably looking for a 4 year deal.

        i thought a trade was the best way to get a closer, and i feel like we did that. it’s good to see that jocketty said that they are considering marshall for that role. that’s what they should do.

        i’d have a pen of:

        9th: marshall
        8th: bray & masset
        7th: lecure & arredondo
        longman/mop up: bailey & one of the new guys we got

  78. TC

    Ah heck, who am I kidding! I’d still take Cordero for 6. Glad I’m not the GM. I’d keep guys around and overpay them for sentimental reasons. 😆

  79. CKeever

    @al: Exactly! How does Berkman go from looking like he has one foot out the door and busts out last year?? The Cards can seem to be an average team all year with over the hill guys, injuries, and some inexperience and then crank up the heat at the end of the year and during the playoffs. Same thing in 2006. How do we get some of that mojo? It’ll be interesting to see how things play out with ‘ol Tony LaRussa around.

  80. TC

    @Travis G.: You wound me sir. I’m sure you’ve read worse. I’m not big on trading guys who have those kinds of minor league numbers for a relief pitcher.

  81. BJ Ruble

    I HATE, HATE, HATE this deal. Marshall is a great player and it takes something to get something, but this is ridiculous. I was on the fence about Marshall for Wood straight up, but giving up a couple pretty good young guys on top of it is downright crazy. Sappelt is a lightning rod and very valuable, IMO. Wood could easily produce well as a second LHP out of the pen and at a fraction of the cost. Marshall will be here one year, and they don’t even consider him for the closer spot. Why give up all the cost controlled years for 1 year of a 30 yr old reliever? It doesn’t make sense. With the Latos deal at least you got back tremendous value for the large haul (being a front line pitcher, under control for 4 yrs). This deal is sickening and I hate it more that it involved the freaking Cubs of all people. It’s one thing to overpay, but way worse to overpay to a division rival.

  82. al

    @BJ Ruble: wow, that’s extreme.

    first of all, jocketty said today that they are considering him at closer and they are trying to extend him.

    second of all, sappelt sucked last year, and he’s gonna suck some more this year if they play him in the bigs at all. torreyes is 19, in low A, and weighs 140 lbs. it’s gonna be a long time before that guy is valuable to a big league club.

    it’s just not that bad. if the reds end up missing anyone it’ll be wood, but if marshall is their closer for 3 years and we win the division, who cares?

  83. TC

    @al: Well, perhaps a bit overstated about Sappealt.

    What I saw with Sappealt when he first reached the majors was someone trying too hard to impress. He looked good once he settled down though he still never took a pitch which frustrated the heck out of me.

  84. al

    @TC: it’s too small of a sample to really say one way or another. i guess i just wasn’t very impressed. or rather, i was very unimpressed.

    i guess i try to think about it like i was a fan of the other team. we just gave up our best reliever, one of the best in the game, and one of the best trade chips we had.

    we got a young starter, and that’s good, but he didn’t have ace numbers or anything. reports say he has a middling stuff and projects as a 4th/5th starter.

    we got a shrimpy 4th outfielder who slashed .237/.326/.368 but has better minor league numbers.

    and we got a tiny kid in low A who somehow put up great numbers.

    i could live with that, but i’m not really thrilled about any of those pieces. i wish we could have gotten one top prospect, an alonso, even hamilton, rather than 3 guys who are all pretty flawed.

  85. Dave Lowenthal

    @al: #4 starters don’t grow on trees, Al. Having a guy who’s cheap to do that job is very useful.

    #5 starters do kind of grow on trees. Name: e.g., Jason Marquis, and they sign for 2-3M on 1 year deals.

    I see Wood as a #4 with a ceiling of a #3. That’s simply more valuable than Sean Marshall for one year. If Wood really is a #5 starter, then Marshall might be more valuable.

  86. Dave Lowenthal

    @Dave Lowenthal: Or, you can pay your #5 starter 12M if he plays the guitar and grows his hair out, I guess.

  87. BJ Ruble

    @al: I don’t see anything in my comment that is extreme. I’ve seen him play in more Bats games than Reds games and I like him. He is not as bad as he looked at times with the Reds, and I’m not saying he an all-star, but a useful player. I have no confidence that Marshall will consider to resign and cut himself short on what is likely his last chance to hit free agency in order to get a good size contract. If the Reds sign him, it will be to a bad contract; if they don’t resign him, they overpaid for a 1 year rental.

    BTW, with this deal, the Management sees Phipps as a better player than Sappelt and that is just not the case.

    • dn4192

      @al: I don’t see anything in my comment that is extreme. I’ve seen him play in more Bats games than Reds games and I like him. He is not as bad as he looked at times with the Reds, and I’m not saying he an all-star, but a useful player. I have no confidence that Marshall will consider to resign and cut himself short on what is likely his last chance to hit free agency in order to get a good size contract. If the Reds sign him, it will be to a bad contract; if they don’t resign him, they overpaid for a 1 year rental.BTW, with this deal, the Management sees Phipps as a better player than Sappelt and that is just not the case.

      We are really rating this as a bad deal because Dave Sapplet and a kid from the low A league were included? Really?

      • Travis G.

        We are really rating this as a bad deal because Dave Sapplet and a kid from the low A league were included? Really?

        This.

        A couple of days ago, I wrote: “The ‘plus-two’ part is concerning, but not really so much if we hear their names and are like, ‘Oh, yeah. I’ve heard of that guy.’ Not so much if we’re like, ‘Oh, no. Not that guy!’

        It seems a lot more folks put Sappelt in the latter category than I would. He’s always reminded me of a slightly better Norris Hopper: a pretty good fourth outfielder, and someone who won’t kill you if he’s got to start for a couple of weeks. Torreyes definitely falls into the former category for me: a decent prospect who should get replaced by an organization that finds and develops talent.

        There’s a risk inherent in any trade, but there’s a bigger risk in doing nothing to improve the ballclub. We saw how that worked out last season.

  88. al

    @BJ Ruble: my bad, i guess i read “HATE HATE HATE” as extreme. must have misunderstood.

  89. BJ Ruble

    And today is the first time Walt said anything about him possibly closing, it is one of two things: 1. They are trying to drive Cordero’s price down 2. They are trying to build up Marshall to signing a friendly deal saying he has a chance to close. I simply don’t see him closing, not with Walt and Dusty running the show.

  90. al

    @Dave Lowenthal: i feel like you’re saying exactly what i am dave. we don’t know what wood is going to be, and that’s where the balance of this deal hangs.

    i see it this way:

    TW is a #3, bad deal, plain and simple.

    TW is a #4, reds probably lost by a little, but sometimes you overpay when you have a chance to win, and i can live with it.

    TW is a #5, good deal for the reds.

    also, i’ll add that i think there’s about a 10% chance that either of the other two has an impact in the majors, and if that happens, then the #5 scenario becomes the #4 scenario.

    if either of the other two become all-stars, then yeah, we’re gonna be kicking ourselves over that.

    again, to me, i think it’s worth it. if the reds win the division, league, or even the WS, i don’t think i’ll really care about any of the guys we gave up.

  91. al

    @BJ Ruble: to be fair, it’s the first day he’s said anything about the deal. they just announced it.

    he’s a better reliever than andrew bailey, and the a’s wanted alonso for him. i don’t see any reason they wouldn’t give him the shot to close unless coco comes back for dirt cheap. they clearly like coco.

  92. WishboneD

    @TC: I’ve been on this site for a few years, too, and to write off the pessimism as “not being part of the John Fay crowd” doesn’t quite explain it. I was much more put off by the comments when I first started reading the site (even calling out one of the editors for what I considered to be an excessively “downer” post). At this point, I think the commenters and editors tend to have a lot of baseball knowledge. I think there are commenters who associate optimism with a lack of baseball knowledge, and to a degree, it can be true. After all, the guy who predicts that we’ll miss the playoffs every year is going to be right a lot more than the guy who predicts a World Series win every year. I tend to fall in the latter category (World Series 2012!!), so I often avoid commenting because the culture of the board is to complain. Still, there are a lot of people with a lot of valid opinions, so to those dissapointed by the pessimists/realists, just know they are doing their jobs and we’ll all be celebrating together when they are finally wrong.

    If anyone is still reading this, my feeling is that we overpaid, but with good reason. It should be a tumultuous year for St. Louis, Milwaukee and (as usual) Chicago. We have the best player in the division, a lineup that can hit the cover off the ball and a rotation that can pop a mitt. It’s as good a time to go for broke as any.

  93. BubbaFan

    I’m a little concerned at how thin the upper levels of the farm are now. Sure, I understand the Reds are trying win now, and I’m board with it…but depth is an important part of winning now. One that’s often overlooked, IMO. Last year, we thought we had a wealth of starting pitching. And who thought we’d go through three shortstops?

    Of course, Walt’s not done yet. Maybe he’s planning to address this. Still…there’s something to be said for having a fallback of homegrown guys with options left, if you’re hoping to win it all.

  94. RedLeg75

    Over on FanGraphs, Marc Hulet had a prospects chat today and was asked what he thought of Sappelt and Torreyes. Here is his response (at the 1:47 time stamp):

    “I tweeted about them earlier (@marchulet) and they’re nice pieces but probably future role/bench players at the MLB level. Nice return for Marshall, though. Cincy sold high on the two prospects – they’re both coming off career/breakout years.”

    This is someone who has seen both of them play and is paid to evaluate minor leaguers. I take his word for it that we didn’t lose much with the minor leaguers. I’ve seen Sappelt on tv and agree.

  95. Dave Lowenthal

    @dn4192: Considering that you value all prospects as “worthless”, what else would you say?

    And no, that’s not why I don’t like the deal. And I’m not opposed to dealing prospects, I’m strongly in favor of the Latos deal.

    But your comments that all prospects are the same, and that all prospects are worthless…it’s silly.

  96. Dave Lowenthal

    @RedLeg75: In 2006 John Sickels rated Joey Votto equal to Chris Denorfia, who I suspect is a “future role/bench player at the MLB level”. Obviously, not an exact science here. Is Sappelt’s breakout like Votto’s? I highly, highly, highly doubt it. < 1% chance. But there's a greater chance Sappelt could start and be useful (but not "good").

    • BubbaFan

      In 2006 John Sickels rated Joey Votto equal to Chris Denorfia, who I suspect is a “future role/bench player at the MLB level”.Obviously, not an exact science here.Is Sappelt’s breakout like Votto’s?I highly, highly, highly doubt it.< 1% chance.But there’s a greater chance Sappelt could start and be useful (but not “good”).

      Baseball Prospectus’ 2006 list:

      1 Homer Bailey
      2 Jay Bruce
      3 Travis Wood
      4 B.J. Szymanski
      5 Chris Denorfia
      6 Rafael Gonzalez
      7 Miguel Perez
      8 Tyler Pelland
      9 Joey Votto
      10 Travis Chick

      The ranked Votto behind not only Denorfia, but the likes of Miguel Perez, Tyler Pelland, and…Travis Wood.

      Not that I’m afraid give up prospects. I think think in this particular deal, we gave up too many. I loved the Latos deal, though that was a lot to give up, too.

  97. eric nyc

    Anyone else feel good about the Josh Judy signing canceling out the loss of Boxberger? They have similar mine league numbers and Judy may even have more dominant SO stuff. If we just filled that hole then the Latos deal is a complete slam dunk.

    So I know if me ruined it before, but Coco Crisp for $5 million-ish and figure out yor closer whenever? There’s no doubt we need a veteran LF to at least backup heisey, and more likely to platoon. Crisp is a better lead off man than anyone in our lineup now, including BP.

  98. MikeC

    For those of you concerned about the farm system being too weakened, I live in Wisconsin and have watched the Brewers trade prospects for major league players for several years now. The Brewers did have some strong prospects at one time, but were never considered to have a stocked system like the Reds have. In an interview earlier this fall, the Brewers GM responded to the question of the farm system becoming bare by saying you have to believe in your ability to continue to draft and develop good prospects. Whether they eventually play for you or you use them for trade chips depends on the team’s needs at the time. If you eventually lose a player you can’t afford to sign, it just brings more draft choices to keep the cycle fed. Even with these trades, I imagine the Reds are still considered to have one of the stronger farm systems.

    He didn’t say this, but every once in awhile you get the opportunity to absolutely steal a good player for some prospects with questionnable upside, which is what the Brewers did in the Greinke trade.

  99. Dave Lowenthal

    @eric nyc: I like the Judy signing, but he’s older than Boxberger; doesn’t strike out as many, and just repeated AAA in 2011 and didn’t do as well as in 2010. That’s probably why they DFA’d him. He was a C+ prospect coming into 2011 (by Sickels), just as Boxberger was. He probably became a C prospect after 2011.

    He still could be quite useful, of course.

  100. TC

    Juan Pierre might fit the bill for LF. He can probably be had for 2 years, $10 million. He’s a lead off hitter, better than average speed, career .345 OBP, career OPS+ of 88, swipes an average of 39 bases per year, and he can shag balls like the devil. Plus, he is only one year removed from his career year.

    He’s not Michael Bourne, but he is more than serviceable. At 34 he is likely starting to decline, but not as quickly as he will at 36.

    Perhaps he might solve a few problems.

  101. TC

    Indians fans are seriously grumbling about the loss of Judy. Seems the Tribe did not want to lose the promising young relief pitcher, but had to make space for recently acquired Aaron Cunningham.

    He was their 2011 24th rated prospect (which is great for a reliever). Some of his luster was tarnished after he had a poor 14 inning debut during the September call-ups this past season. He was the AAA closer this past season and thrived in the role. His numbers and role seem to follow closely to that of Logan Ondrusek. If so, IMO this is an excellent pickup.

  102. Dave Lowenthal

    @TC: I just don’t get that.

    Ondrusek stinks. He’s basically a clone of Cordero, slightly better, who costs what Cordero *should* cost. OK, I’m being dramatic, but his career minor league numbers: 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9

    Judy’s career minor league numbers: 10.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9

    They are the same age, roughly.

    The only thing similar about those two are that they both pitch. I mean, one looks like a pitch to contact guy (Ondrusek) and the other like a late-inning, shutdown reliever (Judy). Judy just had an off-year in 2011, but it’s a very small number of innings: he increased his IP from 47 to 52, and his walks from 14 to 25. That’s a terrible walk rate, but it’s also a very small number of innings, so he could have just had a few bad games for all I know.

    But Judy look nothing like Ondrusek.

  103. TC

    Reds also pick up Brian Esposito. He’s a 32 year old professional minor league catcher who’s specialty is working with young pitchers.

    The guy couldn’t hit the Ohio River if he fell from the center of the Roebling, but apparently he knows how to handle a staff. The Reds will need someone at AAA if Redleg Nation award winner for best mustache, Corky Miller, has to be called up. Or he may be in Corky’s role at AA if Mark Fleury starts the year at AAA.

  104. TC

    @Dave Lowenthal: Umm, Logan Ondrusek has a career average 3.45 ERA and 1.267 WHIP over two seasons which is not that far off if career minor league numbers. That stinks?

    I agreed, their K-rates are different.

  105. TC

    From January to May of 2010 I was the top poster on the board. I enjoyed chatting with the other regulars. Then it stopped being fun, now I remember why. 🙁

  106. hermanbates

    I’m watching the Others right now starring nicole kidman. It didnt get very good ratings, but i still find it eerie and creepy. But its k/9…its so low.

    I’m intrigued by these numbers guys bring up. Ondrusek pitches to contact, his k/9 isn’t great yet theres a claim he stinks? I’m sorry, but he’s been consistent and solid save for the end of last year when he was over worked. Just because he doesnt strike out 13/9 like Chapman doesnt mean anything. Downward plane, movement to his pitches and he pitches to contact. I’ve seen ondrusek be successful with my own eyes. No number any one (dave lowenthal) brings up will shake ondrusek being successful. So he doesnt fit the numbers of sabermetrics. This doesnt make him a bad pitcher. You dont get to the majors by fluking your way through three to five levels of minor leagues. So you can take your numbers. I’ll take ondrusek in the sixth or seventh inning and feel more than better about it.

  107. earl

    Logan Ondrusek was pretty good in the first half of 2011 and really a bigger part of 2010s bullpen success than perhaps given credit. Kind of like Nick Masset, he seemed kind of worn down as the season progressed from being used a ton.

  108. earl

    Dave Sappelt really didn’t impress me last year. He played a bit better later on, especially with defense as he did a few dumb plays when he first got to Cincy.
    He kind of reminded me build wise of Billy Hatcher and probably if he does OK, that is probably his ceiling. I tend to doubt the Reds just traded away Kirby Puckett.

  109. pinson343

    @TC: I’ve always enjoyed your comments, TC. Hang in there.

  110. pinson343

    I had to do a lot of driving yesterday and listened for hours to mlbnetwork radio.
    An interesting thing about this trade is that fans of both teams hate it.
    Says something about overvaluing the players on your own team.

    From here I just hope that WJ does NOT sign CoCo. He said some encouraging things today about how Marshall or someone else “in house” might close.
    I would go with Marshall as the “high leverage” setup guy and with LeCure as the closer.

  111. jrob45601

    @BubbaFan:
    You quoted Myles, who was quoted what I had said. The point I was making, that he picked up on, is that this team has no depth at all right now. You even made the point yourself. If Hanigan or Mesoraco go on the DL, Corky comes up to take their place. If one of the remaining 2 gets banged up, Janish is our backup catcher. For however long it takes someone to get healthy. And that’s not the only position like that. The only infielder at AAA who has had any success is Soto. A first baseman. There is no middle infielder listed on their roster who could do any more than take a spot. There is no depth. No McClellon to step into the rotation. No Jay, or Craig to plug into the outfield. Nothing.

  112. strunkdafied

    I’m glad we didn’t pursue Gio Gonzalez too hard: In today’s Insider-only blog post, ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Athletics never got into deep talks with the Reds about Gio Gonzalez, but they would not have traded the lefty for the four-player package Cincinnati gave up for Mat Latos.

    • Tom Diesman

      ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Athletics never got into deep talks with the Reds about Gio Gonzalez, but they would not have traded the lefty for the four-player package Cincinnati gave up for Mat Latos.

      Of course not, they wanted nothing to do with Volquez and the ~ $3M he will be getting paid this season.

  113. Dave Lowenthal

    @hermanbates: Hah, hah, you’re hilarious.

    I said I was being dramatic. I wasn’t serious that Ondrusek stinks. My points were:

    1. He doesn’t look at all like Josh Judy to me.

    2. He does look like Cordero in his profile, and I like having Ondrusek around—but not to pitch high leverage innings like Baker uses him—for $418,000. Just like I said. You wouldn’t imagine paying Ondrusek 8M/year, but that’s probably what the Reds will end up paying Cordero.

    Also, you most certainly can get to the major leagues by fluking your way through several levels of the minor leagues. That’s a side point, but if you couldn’t do that, then predictions from minor league performance would be perfect, right? I mean, Chris Hammond would have been an ace, right?

  114. Dave Lowenthal

    @earl: Or his luck evened out—he’s not a 1.97 ERA pitcher. He only threw 61 innings last year, and 55 innings in 2010. That’s not really a heavy workload. I suppose he had a lot of appearances, but still.

  115. Dave Lowenthal

    @pinson343: I’d think Marshall would have to get the higher leverage situations than Lecure, he’s clearly a better pitcher at this point. Since Baker doesn’t mix and match, that should mean Marshall closes over Lecure if they go in house. On average, the 9th will be higher leverage.

  116. Bill Lack

    It’s not that they gave up Wood and Sappelt and Torreyes as much as the fact that Marshall can walk after this year and that’s too much talent (all included) for one year of Marshall. IF they can get Marshall extended, I’ll be fine with this deal, but I wouldn’t have made it w/o an extension in place. Giving up these 3 guys is too much for one year of Marshall and that’s all the Reds are assured at this point in time.

    • Tom Diesman

      IF they can get Marshall extended, I’ll be fine with this deal, but I wouldn’t have made it w/o an extension in place.

      He’s not going to sign an extension. Heard him on 700 WLW last night and he said he’d love the opportunity to close and that he’d just go out and pitch and worry about resigning at the end of the season. No way I’d sign up for more years now with the Reds, knowing I’d have a decent shot at doing some closing this year. He’d be better off waiting until next off season and possibly getting closer money because there is no way the Reds would name him closer now and pay him as such in an extension.

  117. eric nyc

    @Dave Lowenthal: Judy had a 10.4 K/9 last year, and he’s done it consistently at the AAA level for a while. Boxberger’s number is a tick higher but has a very small sample size in AAA ball. Seems like a pretty good strikeout rate to me. And he’s only 2 years older than Boxberger. Maybe not a PERFECT swap, but fills the hole that Boxberger would have filled this year with the big club as a middle reliever. He might not have the closer-type ceiling of Boxberger, but it was a smart pickup that makes the Latos trade look even better. If we extend Marshall and make him the closer (hell, even if we don’t extend him and just use him as the closer this year) I’ll start feeling much more comfortable. I just keep refreshing the homepage dreading news of a Cordero signing…

  118. hermanbates

    @Dave Lowenthal: Coco cordero has been consistent. Last year, he quit missing bats, but he kept getting outs. You dont have to be a strike out king to be successful. Stats are a strong indicator. But thats mostly what they are. An indicator. these are generalizations, but still, a high BA is an indication of a good hitter. A low ERA is an indicator of a good pitcher. A great OPS is a much better indicator of a hitter. A k/9, k/bb and WHIP are better indicators on pitchers. But that doesnt mean a whole bunch to a dude who may give up a hit here or there but still pitches to contact and gets people out. They can be effective, can they not? you dont have to be a stat machine to be successful.

    And you most certainly cannot fluke your way through minor leagues. You have to be immensely talented to even get a shot at the minors and mentally strong enough to make it through the rigors of everyday life. Can you fluke your way through one level of the minors? i’ll give that one, and maybe that fluke is AAA to majors. but guys fail because they cant figure it out mentally or their abilities just dont translate well, and those guys dont stick around as major leaguers for very long.

  119. eric nyc

    @hermanbates: Cordero is a pretty good closer. You could even say he’s a very good closer. But he’s coming to the back end of his career and he is certainly not worth $8 million/year, which seems to be what he would cost to sign. If the Red Sox want to pay him that, it might not be the worst signing in the world. If WE do that, it means we’ll be going into the season with Heisey in LF everyday and Todd Frazier backing him up. Not a good scenario. We just can’t afford Coco…which is to say we currently CAN afford Coco, but we SHOULDN’T afford Coco. Which is what makes a lot of us nervous.

  120. MikeC

    The Reds logjam in the outfield thinned out pretty quickly with the trrade of Alonso and Sappelt. They never seriously consedred Beltran with his kind of contract and won’t sign any other highly paid player for the outfield. I wonder if Juan Pierre could be a good possiblity for 4th outfielder? He still fields well, had a reasonable OBP (.329)in 2010 and has experience as a lead-off hitter. His OBP against left handers last year was .430, so he could be a good platoon with Heisey if necessary. He made $8million last year, which was the last year of a 5 year contract and is expected to be offered quite a bit less as a non-starter for some team. The White Sox did not offer him arbitration, so there are no draft picks owed for signing him.

    • Tom Diesman

      I wonder if Juan Pierre could be a good possiblity for 4th outfielder?

      I’d prefer someone like Spilborgh, or Cody Ross if his price falls which it should. Both bat righty and are good defenders, and can play all across the outfield.

  121. pinson343

    @Dave Lowenthal: I agree with your logic about the use of Marshall/LeCure, given the way that closers are used. I expect Marshall to close, if a closer is not picked up.

  122. pinson343

    @hermanbates: Eric already pretty much said this, but in any case …. I was a big supporter of CoCo’s last season, and argued that he’d successfully adapted his style of pitching. He had better command of all of his pitches than in 2010, and used his slider more and his change up much more, pitched inside more, etc.

    But of course we don’t know (just as with any other pitcher, especially relief pitcher) whether he’ll have as much success in 2012-2013. He wants 2 years and too much money.

  123. pinson343

    I like the Judy pickup, what’s not to like ? He has options.

  124. Dave Lowenthal

    @hermanbates: Two questions:

    1. Do you think Cordero will have a .214 BABIP next year?

    2. Have you ever heard of a “AAAA hitter”, and do you believe they exist? Hell, people are calling Dave Sappelt that. Maybe the definition of “fluke” isn’t clear, but what I’m saying is that you can most certainly be a guy who has success in the minors and not in the majors.

    And by the way, Ondrusek’s career minor league ERA is 4.09. I’d like to know why I should believe that long term, it will be better in the bigs. Did he develop a new pitch? I’m open to believing there’s a reason. It does happen—see Mike Scott (though maybe he cheated).

    • Bill Lack

      @hermanbates: Two questions:

      1. Do you think Cordero will have a .214 BABIP next year?

      2. Have you ever heard of a “AAAA hitter”, and do you believe they exist?Hell, people are calling Dave Sappelt that.Maybe the definition of “fluke” isn’t clear, but what I’m saying is that you can most certainly be a guy who has success in the minors and not in the majors.

      And by the way, Ondrusek’s career minor league ERA is 4.09.I’d like to know why I should believe that long term, it will be better in the bigs.Did he develop a new pitch?I’m open to believing there’s a reason.It does happen—see Mike Scott (though maybe he cheated).

      Actually, there was something, I can’t remember what, about a change Ondrusek made…anyone remember what it was?

  125. Dave Lowenthal

    @eric nyc: Eric: I love the Judy signing. I was just saying that he can’t quite be the equivalent of Boxberger (I can’t believe) because a major league organization DFA’d him, and every one of the 30 organizations would have loved to have Boxberger as one of their 40.

    That said, they are similar in many respects. This signing is under the radar and it could be a great signing. We could be pointing to this in August as a key bullpen signing, even.

  126. jrob45601

    How about this for evaluating Cordero? If he had never been a closer before, would any team look at his numbers from the last 2-3 years and consider signing him to be their closer? I think pretty much all of us would agree that the answer is no. So why is he still being considered a closer? Just because he has a bunch of saves, which just means “we were already winning and I was pitching when the game ended.” We all know that saves is a horrible stat to use for evaluating relief pitchers.

    P.S. Did someone (Dave Lowenthal?) say he had a BABiP of .215? His career low was .261 (2002), career ave .298. He will be lucky to be lower than .285 next season.

    • al

      How about this for evaluating Cordero? If he had never been a closer before, would any team look at his numbers from the last 2-3 years and consider signing him to be their closer? I think pretty much all of us would agree that the answer is no. So why is he still being considered a closer? Just because he has a bunch of saves, which just means “we were already winning and I was pitching when the game ended.” We all know that saves is a horrible stat to use for evaluating relief pitchers.

      P.S. Did someone (Dave Lowenthal?) say he had a BABiP of .215? His career low was .261 (2002), career ave .298. He will be lucky to be lower than .285 next season.

      this exactly. if you just had to pick closers based on normal pitching stats, not saves, and you looked at coco and the rest of the reds pen, there is no way that you would pick him to close. you probably wouldn’t pick him second or third either.

      and yeah, i would be surprised if coco has an ERA under 4 next year.

  127. jrob45601

    And as far as Juan Pierre goes, if he is on this team he will be playing left and batting leadoff every day. His career obp is .345, but he has only exceeded that once since 2005 (2009). He is significantly better against lefties, but we all know Dusty wouldn’t use him as a platoon.

    • Tom Diesman

      And as far as Juan Pierre goes, if he is on this team he will be playing left and batting leadoff every day.

      The thought makes me cringe with rememberances of Patterson and Taveras.

      • vegastypo

        The thought makes me cringe with rememberances of Patterson and Taveras.

        me too

  128. vegastypo

    Help me out, please … Why is there an automatic assumption that Chris Heisey can’t be a significant offensive contributor if allowed to be the everyday left fielder?

    I was trying to check his numbers just in games where he appeared to be in the starting lineup, at least three plate appearances, for example. That seems to be where people throw him under the bus. “He sucks when he starts” or whatever……. It appears that in the stretch where he got the most playing time, September, when he came back from an oblique injury, he hit .310 with 5 HRs in 15 games as a starter. So 15 games means he still wasn’t playing every day, what with Alonso’s cameos, Fred Lewis in there and the occasional Sappelt start, but do those numbers sound bad to you?

    In July and one game in August, 13 games, .255 and 4 homers………..In June it was only 9 games, but .308 with 4 HRs (yes, three of those were in one game)……..In May it was 14 games at .235, 1 home run……..and April was his worst month, but also the month where it appears he started in only 5 games, .167 with 1 HR.

    Would I rather have Beltran’s bat? YES!! But until you let a guy play consistently, can you really say he can’t do it?? Especially a guy who was a Minor League Player of the Year, wasn’t he??

    I’m much more worried about Rolen’s offense than Heisey’s. But Rolen is a vet, so he’ll get three months to show he stinks, but the first time Heisey has two straight 0-fors, it’s back to the bench.

    Anyway, Merry Christmas, just a disgruntled Heisey fan!

  129. jrob45601

    @vegastypo:
    I am a big Heisey fan. Have been wanting him to get an everyday chance for 2 years. But it certainly looks like Dusty and Walt are not fans, and they are the ones who matter. I think if they came out an said “Heisey is our left fielder” the way they did with Gomes last year, most people here would be ok with it. And it might just let him relax enough to play well.

  130. Redsfanx

    8) So many complaints. As a 70 year Reds fan, I’ve cheered for a lot of average teams in that span. At least, now we’re in win mode and I’ll put my trust in Walt, who has won before. Prospects are just that. They rarely get you to the playoffs. If you want to get there, you have to have established pitching, and that’s what we have with the addition of Latos and Marshall. It’s been a long time since we could say the Reds now have frontline pitching, and along with defense, that’s what wins.

  131. stormbringer

    A bit off topic, but since this thread deals a lot with closers and the certainty of prospects:

    1. I think I still have 1000 Paul Householder rookie cards (plus 20 Duane Walkers) sitting around somewhere, not sure if they made the move to Switzerland or not.

    2. Does anyone else think Arredondo could enter into the discussion of who will close? My thinking here is that he is now 2 yrs removed from surgery, if he continues healing and returns to his 2008 peripherals he could be nasty.

    3. I may be in the minority, but I don’t think we are going to spring for a closer – unless they come down to the 4-5 mil range. I do expect us to sign an OF that none of us will be happy with.

    • jrob45601

      2.Does anyone else think Arredondo could enter into the discussion of who will close?My thinking here is that he is now 2 yrs removed from surgery, if he continues healing and returns to his 2008 peripherals he could be nasty.

      When we first signed him, I thought we had found our closer for the future. After watching him last season, he still has a lot to prove. The stuff is there, he just walked way too many batters to be trusted in high leverage situations until he shows he can perform better.

  132. BubbaFan

    @jrob45601:

    Okay, I guess I misunderstood the post. I thought the argument was that this team isn’t winning if someone gets hurt, so we might as well empty the farm system. Sorry about that.

    However, I don’t think we have to worry about Janish being the back up catcher. The Reds signed Brian Esposito to a minor league deal this week. I assume Walt will be addressing other positions this way as well. Not as good as having guys with options, but better than nothing.

  133. MikeC

    @Travis G.:

    Sigh. I guess you are right. I temporarily forgot about Dusty-proofing the line-up. If he had Pierre, Dusty couldn’t stop himself from running him out there all the time and poor Heisey would be back to the bench. I am a fan of Heisey and posted in another thread that I believe he could become a right handed Bruce. I still think the Reds look thin in the OF and would rather have some decent back-up there than bring back Cordero.

  134. Dave Lowenthal

    @al: If Cordero is so valuable, why hasn’t some other team jumped on him while the Reds are twiddling their thumbs?

    My understanding is that some teams have backed out because he wants 2 years, and he’s not interested in being a setup guy (which have made some teams just not bother).

    I admit there’s the same question with Madson, but Madson wants a good deal more money, right?

  135. hermanbates

    @Dave Lowenthal: I don’t want to sign Cordero if it’s too much money, i agree with that. But i just think that saying him or ondrusek arent good is a false claim. Cordero has reached the end of his career and i would much rather go elsewhere. But if the market thins out and cordero drops his numbers, i wouldn’t be devastated if he was resigned (say a 1 year, 5 million deal, depending on what else happens obviously). I dont want us to over pay for him. But i think id rather overpay for cordero than close by committee.

  136. Chris Garber

    @hermanbates wrote: But i think id rather overpay for cordero than close by committee.

    Congratulations, you think like a major league GM. A *bad* GM, but a GM nonetheless. So terrified of a “role”, which was created by sportswriters to explain a stupid sportswriter-created stat, that you’re willing to overpay to have a less effective team.

    My thoughts: Price is too high. Marshall is good, but most relievers have a very short shelf life. There’s risk that he’ll be less than great, and 75 less-than-great relief innings aren’t too valuable. Wood showed GREAT things in a very, very small-sample relief audition last year. Marshall was also a middling starter when he came up – why not just save the money & prospects, and just try Wood in the pen?

    Last, and this is the most ironic thing: By slavishly adhering to “bullpen roles,” resigning Cordero would force Dusty/Walt into using Marshall – ostensibly their best reliever – in the highest leverage situations. Cordero will reflexively appear in the 9th when the Reds are leading by < 3 and in tie games at home, but that's it. Marshall will pitch the 8th in close games (winning or losing), the 9th in tie games, and probably even the 7th if tough hitters are up. Unlike Cordereo, he'll enter the game with runners on base – when the game really needs "saving."

    Assuming Marshall is going to be as good as Walt does, but also assumiing Dusty will be Dusty, I hope they annoint another pitcher the Closer. I'd prefer it not be Cordero, though, because he'll cost too much and be effectively impossible to "fire" if he's ineffective.

  137. dn4192

    Can someone help me to understand why people here would have been okay giving Beltran 2 years at 13 million a year for a guy who is 35 and riddled with injury issues, but don’t want to give Phillips say a 5 year deal of aroun 13-15 million per year?

    • al

      Can someone help me to understand why people here would have been okay giving Beltran 2 years at 13 million a year for a guy who is 35 and riddled with injury issues, but don’t want to give Phillips say a 5 year deal of aroun 13-15 million per year?

      well, as someone who didn’t want to sign beltran, i don’t really know. i think giving phillips that deal would be bad for the same reasons. it’s paying someone premium cash like they’re in their prime, based on numbers they put up in their primes, but paying them for years that will most likely be much worse than their primes.

  138. jrob45601

    @dn4192:
    Cause the 2 years for Beltran would be the 2 years Votto is already under contract. So better chance to win while he is here, while not affected our payroll flexibility for a possible extension for Votto. Signing Phillips for 5 years will make it virtually impossible to sign Votto, or any other upper tier free agent.

  139. dn4192

    Why would it? Why is there this thought that Bob is broke? I think Bob knows what it is going to cost to sign Votto and at that point will expand the budget. You also lose Rolen and Bronson off the books at that point also.