2012 Reds / Minors

Some John Fay tidbits

From the Cincinnati.com:

<blockquote Leftovers from Redsfest:

–I got the impression that the Reds hold little hope of re-signing Francisco Cordero. The way the closer market has settled, the Reds might be able to get Cordero back at one-year deal in the $7 million range.

But I wouldn’t even do that. I’d stay in house. Try Bill Bray first. If he doesn’t work out, turn to Sam LeCure or Jose Arredondo or Brad Boxberger.

Another possible candidate? Edinson Volquez. He’s long shot for the rotation at this point. He’s throws 97 and has a great change-up. That could work in the ninth inning.

I like the in-house idea. I think there are candidates; I’d add Nick Masset, providing he can be more consistent. I shudder to think of Volquez out there when he can’t find the plate.

–With Cordero likely gone, the Reds will have three picks in the top 50 of next year’s draft. That’s a very good thing, especially now there’s pretty much a cap on what bonuses can be.

As this is where I think the new CBA helps the Reds, signability.

–David Bell’s promotion to Triple-A manager could well be a prelude of things to come. Dusty Baker is only under contract for this year. Win or lose, I could see him not returning. Bell is probably the top candidate to replace Baker. “David Bell will be a manager somewhere in the big league in the next couple of years,” one baseball insider told me.

Maybe sooner than the next couple of years if they stumble out of the gate this year.

–It sounds like the Brandon Phillips deal with get done. Walt Jocketty said it’s a “complicated contract,” thus it takes to time to put it together. That tells me it likely involves deferred money.

I’ll hold off on judgment until I see the numbers, but I think the team will place too much value on his “fan friendliness” and not enough on his age and that they’ll end up paying him for what he’s done, rather than what he’ll do (aka Rolen and Arroyo).

–Denis Phipps is a guy to keep an eye. He’s a legitimate five-tool player. He didn’t hit for average until this year when he hit a combined .346/.397/.576 at Carolina and Louisville. He followed it with .297/.403/.436 in the Dominican Winter League.

“I worked hard with (Carolina hitting coach) Ryan Jackson and Eric Davis this year,” he said. “Those guys readily helped me.”

Phipps is 26, but he didn’t start playing baseball until he was 18.

I’ll believe it when I see it from more than one season. He suddenly explodes at AA? I watched him for 2 years at Dayton and about the only good thing I could say about his performance was that he had a great arm. Maybe the light really did come on…but I’m like the guy from Missouri, “Show me”.

15 thoughts on “Some John Fay tidbits

  1. I like Phipps. He might have the strongest arm in CF that we’ve seen since Jr was a young lad.

  2. It warms my heart to know the Reds are starting the process of grooming the next manager already. Only one more year of Dusty!
    These player updates will nourish me thru the winter, but in my mind, for the offseason to be a success, we need to land that solid #2 pitcher and a reliever (notice I didn’t say closer). To acquire a starter, I’d be open to trading any combination of Grandal, Wood, Bailey, Volquez, Francisco, Heisey, Frazier, Sappelt, Hanigan, and Chapman.

    • It warms my heart to know the Reds are starting the process of grooming the next manager already.Only one more year of Dusty!
      These player updates will nourish me thru the winter, but in my mind, for the offseason to be a success, we need to land that solid #2 pitcher and a reliever (notice I didn’t say closer).To acquire a starter, I’d be open to trading any combination of Grandal, Wood, Bailey, Volquez, Francisco, Heisey, Frazier, Sappelt, Hanigan, and Chapman.

      Following the theory that it’s better to trade a guy when his value is highest, I’d rather trade Alonzo than Grandal or Chapman. Grandal will have more value after 2012 than he does now.

      It’s too bad they cannot throw in Arroyo into a deal and get some sucker to take him off their hands…

  3. @RiverCity Redleg: The current CF has a pretty good one himself. Stubbs and Bruce are the best CF/RF tandems in baseball in preventing extra bases.

    @Myles: Trading Grandal/Alson > Chapman. Chapman’s value just skyrockets if he can pitch 6 innings consistently. I believe the entire deferred amount in Arroyo’s contract becomes immediately payable if he is traded–> 15M deferred without interest, paid through 2021. Vomit.

  4. I think it is important to see that a player’s value via the fans are important. To watch Brandon on Sat at Redsfest and to see how he interacted with the fans and especially young kids is important and should be taken into consideration.

    • @dn4192:

      I think it is important to see that a player’s value via the fans are important.To watch Brandon on Sat at Redsfest and to see how he interacted with the fans and especially young kids is important and should be taken into consideration.

      Sure it should be given “consideration”, but putting together a winning baseball team is what is important. Win games and the seats will fill, even if you had 9 Ty Cobbs on the field.

  5. “I’ll hold off on judgment until I see the numbers, but I think the team will place too much value on his “fan friendliness” and not enough on his age and that they’ll end up paying him for what he’s done, rather than what he’ll do (aka Rolen and Arroyo).”

    We don’t really know how much value the team puts on fan friendliness, that’s just speculation.

    What I totally agree with from this part of the post is not paying for what they player has already done, and there is clear evidence that our front office is prone to making that mistake.

    As a fan, I would be sad to see Brandon leave this year. But he’s not going to, because we already picked up his option. I think I will be more sad if he’s getting a ton of money and playing terribly in 3 years, and the Reds are back into another dark age.

  6. @Bill Lack:

    Reds fell off last year and yet this year they topped last years attendance at Redsfest? Winning is important no question, but in sports fans need players they can relate to and Brandon is right now Fan Fav #1. You should have seen how the kids just loved him at the wiffle ball event…..

  7. Reds fans get to relate to the Reds players every October…both are far too used to watching other teams continue playing playoff baseball.

    Management needs to save fans from themselves sometimes. Barry Larkin meant far more to the fans in Cincy than Brandon Phillips and his contract was a disaster. I’m not completely against resigning him, but another bad season and WJ could be fired AND have left this organization with another anchor around its neck. Maybe if we’re lucky it’ll match the one attached to our ankle with Bronson’s name on it.

    Is it really so bad for BP to play out a contract year?

  8. @dn4192: Even though most people speak highly of them now, even Eric Davis and Boomer Esiason got booed in Cincinnati. It doesn’t matter how many items they sign or how friendly they are, if they can’t do their job, it will lead to losing and more dissatisified fans.

    Wow, he played with kids, but he was also such a drama queen about his “will I or won’t I” be at Redsfest. OK only Friday. Surprise! I’ll be at Saturday’s event, too. What was that all about?

    Re: The CBA – the Reds have been signing their top picks. Though I do like that they can no longer offer picks major league roster spots (hurts the 40-man roster composition too much), I think the changes hurts the Reds overall more than it helps. The late round picks, like Tucker Barnhart, would no longer be allowed to paid over slot bonuses to skip their college intentions. The Reds have been able to get a lot of late round talent that way.

  9. When the Reds gave that last contract to Larkin he was like 38, right? Beyond that Barry also missed a ton of games through out his career from injury.

    BP will be 31 next year. The guy has averaged 151 games a season over the past six years. I’d feel a whole lot more comfortable giving a 4 year deal to BP over the ton of cash the Marlins just gave to Reyes, who has more upside but has been pretty fragile over the past few years. I’d say the odds of BP playing out that deal are probably pretty decent and at least the glove being there through the lenght of the contract even if say the power dries up a bit (which it might not).

    I’m an optimist though. I’d still do the Arroyo deal last year and I hope and think (knock wood) that Bronson will bounce back next year. I don’t have any doubts that Arroyo will put in the work to try and make it happen. I think part of the problem last year was that with Bailey and Cueto down at the start, they put him out there when he probably should have sat for a couple weeks coming out of spring training and that loss of endurance left Dusty to leave Bronson hanging more than a few times in the seventh inning when he was done in the sixth.

  10. Arroyo deal at the time=nuts. Still doing the deal knowing what you do now=NUTS. :)

    And I’m sorry but Larkin, besides being an exception to the general aging guidelines, is an aberration anyway. He’s like Derek Jeter in that the deal was partly marketing anyway. Cincy born, future HOFer, former MVP, spent entire career with the Reds. It’s not like the Reds don’t have other stars on this team. Votto and Bruce are elite/near-elite players. Who did those other Reds teams have? Sean Casey and that’s about it…

    Besides all that, we don’t get to use the crazy contracts as an excuse to enter into later deals. If we do, virtually any contract for guys < 38 are now valid.

    Player career arcs have been fairly well documented since the early 1980s. To quote Bill James: Good hitters stay around, weak hitters don't. Most players are declining by age 30; all players are declining by age 33. There are difference in rates of decline, but those differences are far less significant for the assessment of future value than are the differing levels of ability."

    BP remains talented versus his peers. I'm not saying BP shouldn't be resigned, but anything beyond 3 years is likely a mistake by WJ. Anything beyond 4 is getting into crazy town imo. There just isn't a substantial reason to resign him to a long term contract prior to the 2013 season.

  11. @earl: I think Phillips’ and Arroyo’s situations are totally different. I was beating every drum I could find to get the Reds to trade Arroyo last year and was totally against the extension. However, I am very much fo extending BP. The dropoff in talent to the next best 2b is far greater than between starting pitchers. Plus, BP is younger and still has great years ahead of him. I have no problem with rewarding BP a tad for past play, as he has outperformed his contract every year since becoming a Red. Obviously, I don’t want the Reds to hamstring themselves with the contract, but I feel a good, reasonable comprimise is obtainable.

  12. Brandon Phillips is an MLB household name, the best defensive 2nd basemen in all of baseball (IMHO, though the stats may say something different), a flexible hitter and one of the best overall hitting 2nd basemen, and (my personal favorite) is the bane of every Cardinals fan everywhere. I say, “Pay the man!” If only for the last reason.

  13. Anyone see that Hanley Rameriez is going to have to play 3B? Sure, he can do it, but old man Renteria couldn’t be bothered. Dusty would have never had the nerve to make an all-start move positions. David Bell indeed if that what it takes to get the best team out there.

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