Another Post-Mortem Chad Dotson 10/05/2011 19 Our friend C. Trent Rosecrans has his post-mortem on the 2011 Reds, along with his vision for what the Reds should do in preparation for 2012. It’s definitely worth a read. Share this:TweetPocket 19 Responses gosport474 10/05/2011 Can’t disagree with anything he has written in that piece. Unfortunately I think the Reds will continue to overpay for certain type players and then have no flexibility for trades in mid-season. RedBlooded 10/05/2011 I also agree with most of that. I do think something needs to be done about the bullpen. It seemed to unravel as the season went on. I’m intrigued by a suggestion from somewhere else to try Volquez as closer. I also think he has a chance to be more consistent next year when he will be another year post surgery. I think it was overly optimistic to think he would be able to just go right back to his career year level. Ethan D 10/05/2011 All I can say to that is AMEN Sultan of Swaff 10/05/2011 @RedBlooded: A few people like myself have suggested moving Volquez to the ‘pen. He’ll be 29 next season for chrissakes, Reds brass needs to realize he’ll never be a successful starter. His stuff is nearly identical to Cordero. That said, guys w/ good K ratios are a dime a dozen. It would be a monumental* failure of imagination to bring Cordero back. *apologies for the Thom Brennaman exxageration. brm7675 10/05/2011 I wonder if Walt sits in his office reviews these articles and just laughs at them… RedBlooded 10/05/2011 @brm7675: I hope Walt reads them but I doubt he does. I think there are a lot good ideas run out here. And some goofy some as well. What Walt has that no one here, or most anywhere else, has is what other teams are willing or not willing to entertain. If you think Walt is clueless, there are probably a number of GMs who even more clueless. I think some Jim Bowdens or worse are still out there somewhere. And most everybody would like something for nothing. Aaron Lehr 10/05/2011 @RedBlooded: It’s funny how simple it seems for a few writers to come up with something that seems so much more sensible and hopeful than what’s been going on. It’s also funny how much of this is the exact opposite of what Mo Egger was proposing. FWIW I agree with this piece much more (it’s also much less tongue in cheek, which I appreciate). If the Reds extend Cordero for 2 years in a deal worth more than $12M in total, I am seriously picking another team to root for in 2012 (I’ll still root for the Reds, I would just need an additional outlet to focus energy to avoid head-explosion). Several times he mentioned being bold… when’s the last time that happened in Cincinnati? I also like his plan for the bullpen (<$12M to rebuild). RedBlooded 10/05/2011 @Aaron Lehr: Bold is great if it also smart. Trading Frank Robinson was bold. And really, really dumb. I think the Reds have been good at developing talent in house and holding on to that talent to see what they had and I assume waiting until the time is right to convert some of that. I think the time is ripe to convert some of that. But again you have to have a trade partner who sees the value in some of the chips that the Reds have. I will be more frustrated if Dusty is back than Cordero but I’m hopelessly a Reds fan and I will still be there trying to will them to the post season even with Dusty and CoCo. Aaron Lehr 10/05/2011 @RedBlooded: Yes I agree, things have to fall into place for bold moves to work out (they shouldn’t be made just for the sake of making them). As the article alluded to, the Brewers were bold and it worked out. The Reds were in the Greinke bidding and have better pieces than the Brewers. I think the pieces he was mentioning as trade bait for a front end starter makes sense. The Reds have done well with position players, but I think they are still missing a dominant, consistent starter, and other than Chapman, who is a subject all his own, I don’t see one waiting in the wings. I would of course root for the Reds and support the players, but I just can’t stand the senseless waste of money. Redsfanx 10/05/2011 I agree with C. Trent that the Reds should emulate the Brewers and get a top flight starting pitcher. Wheather that’s by not signing Cordero or by trade, it’s up to Walt and Bob. Not so sure I agree that Alonso should be traded. This guy can hit and no guarantee Votto will be here come 2013. A decision has to be made regarding Stubbs, but pretty tough to give up his speed and defense. The offense is ok with Heisey in left, Rolen/Francisco or Frazier at third and Cozart at short. pjnrph 10/05/2011 Why do I never hear Stubbs mentioned as trade bait? Ship his butt out! Don’t the Dodgers have money problems? Try to get Matt Kemp from them. Could they turn down a package of Stubbs, Wood, Frazier and Alonso or Grandal? Offer Seattle Volquez, Hamilton, Francisco and Alonso/Grandal for Felix Hernandez. Move Bailey to closer, let Cordero walk. Play Heisey in left. Oviously, Cozart at short. With a rotation led by Cueto, King Felix & Chapman, and Matt Kemp hitting clean-up between Votto & Bruce…now we’re getting somewhere! David 10/05/2011 Why do I never hear Stubbs mentioned as trade bait? Ship his butt out! DonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t the Dodgers have money problems? Try to get Matt Kemp from them. Could they turn down a package of Stubbs, Wood, Frazier and Alonso or Grandal? Offer Seattle Volquez, Hamilton, Francisco and Alonso/Grandal for Felix Hernandez. Move Bailey to closer, let Cordero walk. Play Heisey in left. Oviously, Cozart at short. With a rotation led by Cueto, King Felix & Chapman, and Matt Kemp hitting clean-up between Votto & BruceÃ¢â‚¬Â¦now weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re getting somewhere! If I’m Jocketty and targetting anyone on the Dodgers it would be a great time to look at Chad Billingsley. With the worst year of his career and one year left on his current deal, he is a definite buy low target. His xFIP is consistently better than his true numbers, he’s young (27), and he is affordable at $6.5 million. He has the potential to rebound into a top of the rotation type of pitcher, but would be a very good No. 3. For one year of Billingsley, I think the Reds could easily get him. doctor 10/05/2011 @Redsfanx: “…Not so sure I agree that Alonso should be traded….” You have to recall his position, its to maximize the next two years the Reds have Votto(as well as the one-year of Brandon). To C.Trent, that means moving a talented,but extra, piece in Yonder(mis-fit for Reds), which helps clear logjam in LF a bit while improving the LF defense(Heisey/Sappelt), and that some package of Yonder/Grandal plus a young reds pitcher(one of Homer/Leake/Wood?) will be needed to get a top-rotation guy so Reds can be a real playoff contender in 2012 and 2013. Also, by 2014, Reds next wave of talent should be established(hopefully Meso and JuanF) or ready to jump from minors to the majors(Soto-1B, Hamilton-SS, etc). Not saying I completely agree but I understand the position C.Trent is making, especially in view of Brewers success as well as Rays this year. Go 2012 Reds. pinson343 10/06/2011 @Redsfanx: Doctor: You have to recall his position, its to maximize the next two years the Reds have Votto(as well as the one-year of Brandon). You pinpoint the most basic decision, which is do you go for it in 2012-2013 even if it hurts you in the “long run” ? Just about everyone here, including me, would say yes, but a player such as Mesoraco can help the Reds in 2012-2013. I wouldn’t trade him. WJ has said that the goal is to make the Reds ” a perennial contender” which is a big part of why he’s reluctant to part with top prospects. But unless a team has deep pockets, this is an unrealistic goal, if it means contending every season. Also, as has been said often, the “long run” and “5 years away” never get here, they just loom perpetually on a distant horizon. 2011 was largely the result of a long-term, perennial contender view. If that’s how perennial contention pans out, I want no part of it. OhioJim 10/05/2011 As usual, I agree with most everything C.Trent has to say. The world is a worse place for there not being a spot for him to cover the Reds fulltime like he used to. I do think the Reds should hold out to get full value for Alonso if it comes to trading him. By that I mean he has shown enough that he should be valued as a major leaguer and not a prospect. Work to make him a center piece and not just the lead prospect in a deal and in the process maybe save one solid MLB quality prospect from also being required in the deal. And I would not trade both Alonso and Grandal come heck or high water. One of those guys has to be the LH bat to replace Joey; and, Grandal can play 1st if need be to get him on the field. brm7675 10/05/2011 @David: What would you consider the “right” price for him in talent we give up? Aaron Lehr 10/06/2011 I’m not necessarily trying to be a jerk, but I find it funny when people want to trade a bunch of our guys who just had bad years and whose trade value is probably as low as it’s going to get for someone who just had a career year (and could win the MVP) and whose trade value can’t get any higher. I also think it’s difficult for fans to accurately evaluate players on their own team. We see the best in guys like Wood and Stubbs. The rest of the league will see an unproven pitcher who had a fluke rookie year and a CF getting worse every year who can’t make contact. Maybe their potential plus an everyday guy and a top prospect is enough for an MVP candidate, but I somehow doubt it. Also just looked it up… Kemp’s only under team control for 1 more year. Billingsly seems more attainable, and LA could us a first baseman, though he is due $11M and $12M in 2012 and 2013 (plus a $3M buyout for 2014). I could see Alonso and Wood working there… Aaron Lehr 10/06/2011 Sorry, mis-typed… those salaries were for 2013 and 2014, with a 2015 buyout… for Billingsl*E*y pinson343 10/06/2011 Don’t know where else to post this. Some good news on the pitching front: Chapman is being converted to a starter (see Fay’s blog). Other good news: Boxberger was dominant in his first AFL outing, striking out all 4 batters he faced.