2010 Reds

Wanna know why the Reds won last year?

Here’s a big reason. Those charts simply amaze me.

Basically, it’s a look at team totals for negative WAR players. The Reds scored out well. Very well. Go read the entire post for a more detailed description of what Fan Graphs was trying to measure.

Of course, as Justin noted, it might be difficult for the Reds to repeat this particular feat in 2011.

9 thoughts on “Wanna know why the Reds won last year?

  1. This is a lot of what bothers me as the Reds resign Ramon Hernandez, Jonny Gomes, and talk about getting a random lead-off hitter. Do they really trust the numbers to go up from last year? Or even remain stable? Each individual contract (Gomes, Hernandez, etc) is no major alarm, but take them in aggregate and consider how Dusty tends to use the players… are the Reds really ready to roll the dice with last year’s team again? I worry.

  2. Well gee, this is reassuring! Guess we’d better hope that some of our other guys (stubby, Bruce, Bailey) to improve upon last year.

  3. To me this just quantifies and explains what I’ve felt all along, and even the apparent strategy the brass talking about this off-season. Without Votto, the team doesn’t really have any star power, but there really isn’t anyone bad on the team, either. There’s no obvious place to make an improvement.

    Sure, LF, SS and 3B are concerns going in to the season, but I think throwing a fit if these same players come back next year is calling this year a fluke. The link proves it was not.

  4. @Jared: I don’t think last year was a fluke. Unfortunately, I don’t think that production from the vets like what we saw in the first half can be expected next year. Most of the Reds players are getting better, but O-Cab, Hernandez and Rolen definitely are not. Gomes is a good clubhouse guy, but I would be willing to bet he was one of the few negative WAR batters the Reds played last year.

    The development of Cueto, Leake, Wood, Bruce, Stubbs, Votto, Bray, etc etc are what saved the season last year. The old guys have value, but unless MLB repeals the steroids ban and they turn into Barry Bonds circa 2001 for the 2011 season, they won’t be positive WAR for much longer.

  5. @lookatthathat:

    O-Cab is gone. Hernandez is a backup/in a timeshare. Gomes is probably in the same situation since WJ is talking about a finding a leadoff hitter and that’s probably code for “new leftfielder.” Anyway, Gomes was only slightly negative at -0.04…assuming he isn’t the everyday LF and used like he was in 2009, his WAR is likely to become positive again.

    I mean you’re right that the Reds should be somewhat concerned with Rolen…but finding a backup 3b shouldn’t be too difficult. Hopefully they give him lots of time off and let Francisco continue developing.

    Anyway, if the Reds get a full season out of Bruce and Stubbs continues improving, this team is looking extremely talented…even with the uncertainty in LF/SS.

  6. Wow. Fewest crappy players in the majors. And our total includes Jonny Gomes, who just barely had a negative WAR.

    This is further evidence that the Reds winning in 2010 had much more to do with WJ than Dusty Baker. We had the horses.

  7. @CP: You are absolutely right. I just don’t see an improvement on or even a replication of last year’s numbers as a guarantee from several positions. I don’t think the afore mentioned vets are going to do it again. The Reds will still be good, because their young talent came on. I, however, would love for them to be better😀

  8. I think will have to do with what the other teams in the central do. I don’t see the Cards adding much as they have to be sitting up to shell out a ton for a certain first basemen. Does anyone really see the Cubs improving much next season or the Brewers? To me the team that scares me are the Stros, and that might be where our challenge comes from.

  9. The data is fairly misleading–what it really shows is who had injuries and who had depth. The Reds have had a ton of depth and it paid off last year big time.

    I think that a lot of the every day players played over their heads–the catchers, Rolen, Gomes, probably Votto too will have some drop off. I think that the pitching will be much better than the early part of 2010 and then Bruce, Stubbs, and a healthy Phillips will all play a little better. The bench was fantastic last year–hard to repeat that success. The pen was not great except for Rhodes in the first half, Masset in the second half and then Chapman when he came up. Ondrusek was ok. Cordero was about the worst closer, but he got away with a lot that he won’t get away with in 2011. Bray showed some flashes. It could be better overall in 2011. We’ll see how the offense performs before we really know what we have for 2011.

Comments are closed.