Baseball Prospectus has reviewed the Reds’ performance thus far through 2010 and gives their opinion for second half expectations. Playoff hopes anyone?

Also is reporting that former Red Ryan Freel has retired after playing nine games in the Atlantic League this spring.

10 Responses

  1. taoistlumberjak

    Farney, however, is still bumping around the independent leagues, waiting for his big break.

  2. David

    If the Reds go .500 the rest of the way, the team will finish with 88 wins. If the Reds can take each remaining month one at a time, and finish with a +.500 record each month, even if by just one game, i.e. 4 games above .500 the rest of the way, then the team will finish with a 92-70 record.

    The team needs to focus on manageable goals. One of which is finishing June +1, July +1, August +1 and September +1. I truly believe the Reds can accomplish that.

  3. GRF

    Best wishes to Freel. Always seemed to play hard.

    I think it can be done, but we will need to avoid ANY significant injuries to the position players, beyond what has already happened to Dickerson. The bench is too thin as it is, and I am not sure they would give a Frazier/Vailaka a chance to fill the gap over a Sutton type.

  4. Greg Dafler

    @David: Interesting numbers. .500 the rest of the season = 88 wins. I like it!

    The stat thrown out a lot after last season was 27-13 in their last 40. So far this year, they are 23-16 in their first 39. So, 50 wins in their last 79 games. That’s a 100 win pace! I don’t see anyone betting on a 100-win season, but just being able to play at that pace over an 80-game stretch is really big positive!

  5. Greg Dafler

    Well, pythagoran win estimates just looks at your total runs scored and total runs allowed, and from that estimates the number of expected wins. If you score 700 runs and allow 700 runs, the calculation estimates that your team was a .500 team. If you score more than you allow, you’re above .500, and vice versa for allowing more than you score.

    That’s the basic premise.

    It is fairly accurate for 162 games. It becomes less accurate for fewer games…like the 39 the Reds have scored. However, it is useful to look at something like that to determine your own team’s luck or the luck of other teams in your division.

    The real question though, isn’t what is their expected win percentage so far…the question is what will their win percentage be? Will they continue to allow as many runs as they score? If so, they will likely lose as many as they win the rest of the way. But if this is not a pitching staff that will stay ranked 11th of 16 in the National League, then they should be able to keep pace atop the NL division standings.

  6. Chad Dotson

    I’m trying really hard not to think about playoffs and wild cards and all that. I just want to enjoy the winning right now because it’s so much fun.

    Truthfully, if I’m honest with myself, I don’t think they can keep it up.

    That BP article, however, makes me get a bit excited about the chances for meaningful baseball in Cincinnati this September. I’m starting to get optimistic, despite my best efforts not to get my hopes up (since the Reds have dashed those hopes so many times).

  7. Steve Price

    The Baseball Prospectus article got me pretty stoked, too. What they’re saying essentially is that the Reds have played over their heads to this point, and if they play to expectations the rest of the year they have a chance at the playoffs.

    Which also means, that if they continue playing over their heads the would make the playoffs.

    I said before the season started that this season rides on the improvements of Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. Since Bruce and Bailey have picked it up the team has started winning. And no small credit can be due to youngster Mike Leake who’s been pitching beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. May be he’s painting the corners…may be there’s some luck there, but it’s worked so far. Drew Stubbs hitting the last week or so has been icing on the cake.

    As for giving Dusty credit…no, I don’t. Any lineup leading off Orlando Cabrera or batting him fifth is just looney. And, especially with the starters pitching so well, how about telling Walt Jocketty he’s got one too many relievers and how about getting another pinch hitter. And, how about suggesting that Cairo is really a nice guy, but how about bringing up Valaika so that we can an middle infield reserve that can hit.

    As for the batboy…well, he’s buried for the year barring injury.

    Now, Dusty has two “Mr. Clutch’s” in Ramon Hernandez and O.C. This team is playing well because of the pitching and the hitting of Votto, Bruce, Gomes, Stubbs, and the catchers. Gomes can’t keep going at this pace and neither will the catchers; Stubbs will fall back some. But, if Votto and Bruce can keep playing this well, these other guys don’t fall off the planet, and the young pitchers continue to pitch well….we’ve got a chance.

    Normally I would say that’s a lot of “if’s”…but, those if’s are not out of the question pie in the sky crazy talk.

    I don’t think Jocketty will stop here…if the team’s starting to contend, now it’s the time to shore up some spots and may be go to the next level. It does mean we’ll keep Phillips; it will be interesting to see if we trade one of the big salary starters for a hitting outfield bat. We definitely need to upgrade the bench.

  8. cstrand

    The fact that baseball prospectus is saying we shouldn’t be surprised to see meaningful baseball in September makes me happy. With this team all I hear is that they’ll regress to the mean…BP says the mean is going .500 the rest of the way and finishing with 84 wins

  9. David

    @Steve Price: To be fair, I give Dusty credit for moving Stubbs down, and Phillips up. Those are moves he would not have made last year. I also don’t fault Dusty for hitting OCab leadoff. It is DEFINITELY not ideal, but really, who else in the lineup would you bat leadoff? The only other guy would be Hanigan, but I prefer him down in the order because of his lack of speed. Cabrera might be able to score from first on a double. I doubt Hanigan can.

    • Steve Price

      Cabrera might be able to score from first on a double. I doubt Hanigan can

      Wade Boggs batted leadoff for nearly 1000 games in his career, but I really don’t think it was effective for the reason that David mentioned here. I looked up Boggs’s ratio of runs scored per plat appearance and per time on base and it was much lower than Cabrera’s. Chances are it’s even on runs scored per game based on Boggs’s higher OBP, but (without checking) my guy instinct says that Boggs’s ability to get on base and hit would’ve scored more Cabrera runs than Boggs because Cabrera had more speed. The key there may be “had” because I don’t know that he does now.

      Anyway, there’s no question that Hanigan does not have speed. The real question is the breakeven point. How long of an OBP can Cabrera have and be effective at the leadoff spot?

      While Gomes is hot, this next statement is currently a moot point, but knowing that Gomes won’t hit like this forever, better leadoff candidates would be a platoon of Heisey and Dickerson in the long run. I don’t think Stubbs’s strike out rate will go down, and neither will Dickerson’s (Stubbs and Dickerson’s rates are similar). Stubbs batting seventh is not a bad spot for him; 8th may be even better to get him closer to the top of the order in which to drive him in.