Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
St. Louis 2
Cincinnati 7
WP: Arroyo (3-2)
LP: Penny (3-4)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–Your Cincinnati Reds are in first place in the National League Central division!

–Bronson Arroyo tossed a complete game, allowing just two runs on seven hits. At times, Arroyo appeared to be toying with Cardinal hitters. So much fun to watch….

–Scott Rolen got the Reds on the board with a two-run homer in the first, then knocked in the Reds third run on a single in the third inning. After that, the Reds were Rolen.

–Several Reds hit the ball well today. Besides Rolen, four other Reds — Orlando Cabrera, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Jonny Gomes — had two hits. Cabrera, Gomes, and Drew Stubbs all doubled.

NEGATIVES
–None! The Reds are in first place!

ETC.
–Reds pitchers have tossed three complete games in the last week. When’s the last time that happened?

–In the top of the first inning, the Reds made the decision to intentionally walk Albert Pujols with a runner on second and first base open. It worked brilliantly, as Matt Holliday proceeded to ground into an inning-ending double play. The best strategy is usually to avoid pitching to Pujols.

–Beating the Cardinals to take over first place makes it even sweeter. Perhaps the only way it would be better is if they had beaten the stupid Cubs.

–It occurs to me that Bronson Arroyo might be my favorite Red. I really enjoy watching him do his thing.

–I don’t know how long the Reds will stay in first place, and I don’t really care right now. I’m just going to enjoy it. It’s better than being in last place.

–Scott Rolen got us going today, so he gets the sombrero:

Scott Rolen

77 Responses

  1. Truman48

    Does anyone think it might be time to give Baker a little credit?

    • Steve

      Does anyone think it might be time to give Baker a little credit?

      Baker stuck with Gomes when he was going poorly. At least for now, that looks like a good decision.

    • Travis G.

      Does anyone think it might be time to give Baker a little credit?

      I hate to say it, but I agree that he deserves some. Putting Carbrera in the leadoff spot appears to have been the right move, as was sticking with Gomes. The only complaints I have now, really, is that Hernandez plays too much and Janish doesn’t play enough. I’d like to see that dude get some late-inning defensive work, at least.

      But it’s hard to complain when your team’s in first place and the middle relievers haven’t pitched enough. Good times.

  2. mike

    not counting today
    Reds team ERA over the last 14 days is 3.24 (1.60 over the last 7 days)

    Reds hitting as a team over the last 14 days .292/.348/.499

  3. mike

    cut-n-paste error. Franklin did not get the save today 🙂

  4. TC

    In three weeks, the Reds have gone from worst to first. Wow!

    The Reds have done very little wrong during that time, but their team stats are still in the middle of the pack. How bad were they before. One exception is the defense which is the best in the league. Again, Wow!

  5. mike

    interesting looking at fangraph’s graph for today’s game
    the biggest plays of the game were…

    Holiday grounding into a DP in the 1st
    Rolen’s HR in the 1st
    Penny grounding into a DP in the 2nd
    Penny’s hit in the 5th
    Arroyo’s hit in the 5th

    Arroyo did look a little shaky the 1st two innings but got the 2 DPs which was HUGE

  6. mike

    @TC: middle of the pack? best defense in the league?

    hmm….
    (not counting today)
    The offense ranks 12th in baseball

    The starters rank 22nd in baseball (now there is the big change, they were one of the worst rotations the 1st month of the season and now they appear to be lights out)

    The bullpen ranks 8th in baseball

    The defense ranks 17th looking at defensive efficiency and 18th in UZR

  7. mike

    some interesting #s

    vs Left handed pitchers
    OPS
    1.009 Hanigan
    .967 Gomes
    .912 Cabrera (??)

    .688 Rolen (??)

    vs Right handed pitchers
    1.116 Hanigan
    1.001 Votto
    .866 Bruce

    .559 Cabrera
    .575 Stubbs
    .697 Gomes

  8. TC

    @Truman48: Absolutely! The whole team is hitting on all cylinders, including the manager. Doesn’t he seem different during games and in interviews now too.

    I would agree with Travis G about Janish, but what is there to complain about OC right now. He’s playing great D and getting on base. Not sure how putting Janish in these past few weeks would have improved anything. I also like the 3/2 split Hanigan over Hernandez right now. They are both playing to their full potential. I wouldn’t chance a thing. Great job Dusty.

  9. TC

    @mike: Wow! Interesting Mike. Okay, I’ll pick a stat. I was talking about FP. But those stats are very strange. I don’t know how they couldn’t be anything but the best right now. Their rolling.

  10. TC

    Okay, very interesting. I just looked to see why the UZR is so low. It’s Gomes, Rolen, and Stubbs. What?! They’ve all been pretty decent, especially Rolen and Stubbs. WTF? Please explain.

  11. Y-City Jim

    @Travis G.: The Cabrera move has seemed to work due to what the other people in the line-up are doing.

  12. TheNatural

    @TC: Small sample sized UZRs aren’t the best indicators of defense.

  13. mike

    @TC: their rolling no doubt but their left side defense has been the absolute worst in baseball. They don’t get to any balls between Rolen/Cabrera/Gomes. I could not find a team with a worst left side than those 3 when it comes to defense. Of course (i didn’t look to close) but it looks like our right side defense of Phillips/Votto/Bruce are the best right side defense in baseball.

    Overall Reds defensive ranking by position
    1B 2nd in baseball
    2B 14th in baseball
    SS 21st
    3B 24th
    RF 6th
    CF 21st
    LF 27th

    that said, Cabrera does seem to be play a little better defense over the last week.
    but I think more importantly what I see and one of the big differences I think with the way their playing isn’t exactly defense but also shows up on defense.

    The Reds aren’t making those mental mistakes that they made a TON of in the 1st month. Fewer base running mistakes, fewer getting picked off on 1B, fewer errors on easy plays, fewer swing at the 1st pitch outs, etc etc. I guess you could say they have been more fundamentally sound in recent weeks. Which is what Fielding % shows. It DOES NOT show who the best on defense is. But it can show who’s making the routine plays. The biggest turnaround of course is the starting pitching. The team ERA in April was 5.41(!!) and the team ERA so far in may is 3.66. That is a MASSIVE change.

  14. TC

    @TheNatural: Agreed, but still don’t understand why so low at this point. Stubbs has been phenominal. Rolen has been solid. I can see Gomes. He’s solid catching and throwing, just slow to his spot (which explains a good FP but bad UZR).

    One more thing to Travis G. I’d like to change a statement I just made. You’re right. Though OC is not making mistakes, Janish would take away hits. So, Janish over OC would be better.

  15. mike

    @TheNatural: but if they match what we see? nobody that has watched the games is going to say that Gomes, Stubbs or Cabrera has range…all 3 seem lead footed on defense and UZR is backing that up. That combined with something I noticed after the 1st two weeks of the season. That is it appears Votto’s defense is much improved this year. He looked terrible the 1st week or so of the season but not he looks GREAT on defense. Then I looked at UZR and sure enough he’s been one of the best 1B defenders. The only Reds UZR value that doesn’t exactly match what I see is Stubbs. Stubbs hasn’t seemed as comfortable in CF as he did last year but he still (by my eye) seems to be playing great defense. His UZR #s are terrible. That’s the main one I’m confused about.

  16. Kyle

    @Truman48: I think this could make for a really interesting discussion. I am not a Baker fan, I think the Patterson/Taveres mistakes from his first two years are indefensible and I can’t remember a manager sticking with guys that are that bad (let alone sticking with him at leadoff). There is that saying that a manager only wins or costs you a few games every year: I think Baker certainly cost the Reds several games his first two years here.

    With that said, I think he has done a pretty good job overall this year. There are decisions we can all point to that we don’t agree with (Cairo being used in any pressure situation is a big pet peeve of mine), but there have been a lot of positives as well. He changed the lineup around when the team wasn’t hitting (twice, if you count Stubbs being moved to 7th) and I think the lineup we have now is about the best you can ask for (without a traditional leadoff or cleanup guy on the roster).

    The biggest thing that I wonder about with Baker are the things that can’t be measured. I feel like that is a big part of being a manager, things like keeping egos in line, trying to keep guys happy when they aren’t playing, trying to promote a positive atmosphere in the clubhouse, having established guys who are on your side and will repeat the things you teach. There is no way of measuring Dusty on these things, but by everything that I can gather from player quotes, the team does appear to respect him and play hard for him.

    I guess the main point I’m making is that Dusty will never be a good manager by any type of statistical analysis (I think we can all agree on this by now). And that is a big deal. But he does seem to be good at the “little things” that aren’t as easily measurable. These get overlooked for just that reason (you can’t measure them, so there is no real way of knowing). But it seems like you can get some value out of Baker if you can keep him away from some of his weaknesses (Ex. speedy former prospects who are at the age where they aren’t going to get better).

    I will probably be much less rational in about three days whenever Dusty loses a game for the Reds or makes a public push to bring back Taveres.

  17. mike

    A question I’d like to ask all of you

    The Reds have played better ball in the last couple weeks
    Do you think there was a turning point? What changed?
    Here is what I think I saw as the change and it’s a combination of events

    a week or two ago Bruce came up to the plate with RISP and swung through 3 fastballs to SO. He was visibly pissed at himself. I noticed the Reds get slightly more serious after that. Then that HR Bruce thought he should have had where he threw his glove. When I see things like this I think that he cares and has high standards for himself and the entire team has to see that no?

    Gomes had been slumping but he busts his butt every game. He’s gotten out of his slump and there have been a number of times in recent weeks he’s gotten hits/scored where he is SOOOOO obviously psyched and into it. I think this has been infectious. He scored the winning, maybe during the Pirates series and by the look of his celebration you would have thought we won a playoff game.

    Cueto and Bailey just attacked the hitters in Pittsburgh. They didn’t nibble. Then we saw Masset do that yesterday. A change in attitude? Masset just went at the heart of the order yesterday just like Cueto and Bailey did a few days before. No more away away away pitching.

    Votto has been more visibly upset at bad strike calls and or bad swings.

    these are all tiny events and things I think I noticed recently that appear to be a chance in the attitude the Reds are playing with.

    Did this all start with Phillips not hustling and getting talked to and then him start to hustle??? From watching them in the last week I swear (like the things I listed above) the team is just so much more focused and aggressive.

  18. Barnes

    Things are looking real good now, I just think they could be better. Nothing original here, just reiterating some good points. No doubt Dusty’s main value lies in handling the players, the stuff we can’t see. I think a totalitarian, no-nonsense LaRussa type would be detrimental to this Reds team. And Baker has made some changes with the lineup (immediately following his meeting with Jocketty). Cabrera would be better served in the 6th spot, if he must play. How many times have ground balls gone by just out of his reach? Rolen’s lack of range we could live with if Janish were to his left vacuuming up everything in sight. As unconventional as it sounds, Hanigan would be a great lead-off guy. Rotate Gomes, Heisey (also a good lead-off option), and Stubbs in LF and CF. And DFA Cairo. Paul Householder would be an improvement in his current form. If anything, at least get Janish in a couple a days a week to keep Cabrera as unstiff as possible.
    Just a couple of tweeks, you know. First Place!!

  19. Barnes

    Furthermore, better defense leads to better pitching. The better pitching has been the #1 key to this turnaround. Just don’t want to settle for a .500 team when these guys are capable of playing +.600 baseball.

  20. Steve

    Does anyone know why Saturday night’s game in Cleveland is not being broadcast? Both Friday and Sunday are.

    No TV on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday this week. Brutal.

  21. Furniture City Red

    @Steve: Wow. I didn’t know that. That really is brutal…what in the hell am i gonna do Tue., Thurs., and Sat. 😐

  22. Furniture City Red

    Anyone heard if the Cards. complained about the balls this weekend? I know Larussa did complain about Leake’s bracelet yesterday during his warm up pitches and the ump made him take it off. They were also bitching about BP moving around to much during Pujol’s at bat late in the game today…..Stuff like that is why I dislike the Cardinals MORE than the Cubs.

  23. Steve

    OK, I figured out about Saturday night TV. And it’s not going to make you happy.

    FOX National TV is showing the Yankees vs. the Mets, which is a night game. According to FOX’s contract, no other games can be televised when their national broadcast is on.

    Ugh.

  24. pinson343

    Dusty moves that are working:
    Playing Hanigan more.
    Being patient with Gomes, Masset, and even Lincoln.
    Moving Stubbs down in order/putting OC at leadoff.

    Still to be done:
    Play Janish more, at the very least as defensive replacement.
    Only use Cairo in extreme emergencies (4th string catcher ?)

    The above I think are all consensus opinions.

    I’d add to play Owings more, as relief pitcher and as PHer.

    TO WJ: Strengthen the bench, it’s a weakness that will bite us at some point, if not addressed.

  25. Furniture City Red

    @pinson343: Cairo needs to be released. He’s dead weight and he’s taking a roster spot from….well…anyone at triple A could do as well as Cairo has done. If nothing else as a pinch runner.

  26. Furniture City Red

    Cairo – 4 hits in 29 at bats = .138 OBP-.138 – that’s right, he hasn’t drawn a walk all year. SLG-.172. It’s like going in to every game with a 24 man roster. Take Dusty’s refusal to use Janish into account and we are 2 men short every game.

  27. Steve Price

    Stubbs is/will be a fantastic centerfielder, but I don’t think he’s looked nearly as good this year as he did last fall. Today’s game (or was it last night’s?) he had a miscommunication with Bruce and they almost collided on a fly to right centerfield.

    It also appears to me that he’s misjudged several flies to center. I believe UZR is measuring how many balls are falling in the outfield for hits. I also think UZR does need more games to be valid in comparisons since all outfields are not the same in space and design.

    I think the more comfortable he feels at the plate will help his defense, too, so that may be why he seems to be looking better now. But, I do remember a few plays where I was wondering why he wasn’t there to track the ball.

    Now…in saying all that…that’s where statistical analysis helps, because what we see isn’t always how things really are…

  28. Steve

    Cario didn’t draw a walk all of last year either. And two of his four hits didn’t get past the pitcher’s mound. One was a sure double play ball vs. the stupid Cubs that the pitcher only knocked down and couldn’t find. Cairo has to be the worst player in all of baseball. He’s sort of our 2010 tribute to Willy Taveras.

  29. Steve

    On the lineup change – before we give too much credit to Baker about that – remember that Baker started the year with Phillips batting fourth again. It was only when the bottom totally fell out on Stubbs in lead off and Dickerson was unavailable that Baker was essentially forced to change the lineup.

    My sense in listening to Walt Jockety being interviewed recently was that he (Jockety) supported the current new lineup back in spring training but Baker wanted to stick with his BP-fourth lineup.

    Baker should not be given credit for his flexibility or open-mindedness. He hasn’t demonstrated any of those qualities for over two years. It was only in the last three weeks, staring down the early-season talk about him losing his job, that he changed things up.

  30. Glenn

    Dusty’s managing like he needs a contract or something. Things are looking up in Cincy!

  31. eastcoast redsfan

    Dusty might be a decent manager if he had a 1 year contract every year. I hope the Reds have a fantastic year … but I think they can get a better manager for next year no matter how well they do.

  32. eastcoast redsfan

    I suppose if the Reds won the World Series, I’d offer him a 1 year contract for next year.

  33. jdarts

    From Mo Egger’s blog, and I couldn’t agree more. And not to point fingers, but some in the sabermetric obsessed crowd, and the “yeah, but it’s May” guy need to relax and just enjoy being in first. —-“It was a series that saw the Reds stand toe-to-toe with the prohibitive NL Central favorites, in games played in atmospheres they get to experience in other cities where series like this one might be more commonplace. Maybe the crowds weren’t what some had hoped, but perhaps that’s because Mr. Yeah-But stayed home, probably alone, and probably with a calculator crunching newfound sabermetric formulas, but to the people who went, myself included, these games mattered just a little more.”

    • Steve Price

      Maybe the crowds weren’t what some had hoped, but perhaps that’s because Mr. Yeah-But stayed home, probably alone, and probably with a calculator crunching newfound sabermetric formulas, but to the people who went, myself included, these games mattered just a little more

      My sabermetric reply is this:

      Studies show that fans take a year to respond to a team’s newfound success. If the team continues to win, come September or so, fans will start to believe it. They won’t firmly believe it until they are winning next year, too (see: Cincinnati, 1999-2000).

      Now…on the other hand; if an also-ran begins losing, crowds typically drop very quickly.

    • Jason1972

      From Mo Egger’s blog, and I couldn’t agree more.And not to point fingers, but some in the sabermetric obsessed crowd, and the “yeah, but it’s May” guy need to relax and just enjoy being in first. —-”It was a series that saw the Reds stand toe-to-toe with the prohibitive NL Central favorites, in games played in atmospheres they get to experience in other cities where series like this one might be more commonplace. Maybe the crowds weren’t what some had hoped, but perhaps that’s because Mr. Yeah-But stayed home, probably alone, and probably with a calculator crunching newfound sabermetric formulas, but to the people who went, myself included, these games mattered just a little more.”

      The Sabernerds are going to bullrush you like Mama Boucher, you better put on a cup.

      • TC

        The Sabernerds are going to bullrush you like Mama Boucher, you better put on a cup.

        Wow! Did you call that or what? LOL! That’s priceless.

    • Steve

      From Mo Egger’s blog, and I couldn’t agree more. And not to point fingers, but some in the sabermetric obsessed crowd, and the “yeah, but it’s May” guy need to relax and just enjoy being in first. —-”It was a series that saw the Reds stand toe-to-toe with the prohibitive NL Central favorites, in games played in atmospheres they get to experience in other cities where series like this one might be more commonplace. Maybe the crowds weren’t what some had hoped, but perhaps that’s because Mr. Yeah-But stayed home, probably alone, and probably with a calculator crunching newfound sabermetric formulas, but to the people who went, myself included, these games mattered just a little more.”

      This is about the most idiotic thing I’ve read here in a while. Shouldn’t you be posting this crap at Paul Daugherty’s blog? Or why don’t you go back and tell Mo Eggers (snicker) how much you love the way he makes fun of people who use statistics.

      Are you saying that people who really love to analyze baseball don’t go to games? Is there some proof of that? And people who look at statistics live at home alone? Does this include everyone who thinks Orlando Cabrera is weak on defense? Anyone who thinks Miguel Cairo is a bad pinch hitter? Would our opinions count more if we didn’t use statistics?

      By the way, I’ve been to half dozen games this year, how many have you been to? And if you think you’ve enjoyed the past two weeks more than I have, you’re wrong.

      You think people who value statistical analysis are more likely to think that May games against first place teams don’t count as much, are you serious?

    • Kyle

      From Mo Egger’s blog, and I couldn’t agree more.And not to point fingers, but some in the sabermetric obsessed crowd, and the “yeah, but it’s May” guy need to relax and just enjoy being in first. —-”It was a series that saw the Reds stand toe-to-toe with the prohibitive NL Central favorites, in games played in atmospheres they get to experience in other cities where series like this one might be more commonplace. Maybe the crowds weren’t what some had hoped, but perhaps that’s because Mr. Yeah-But stayed home, probably alone, and probably with a calculator crunching newfound sabermetric formulas, but to the people who went, myself included, these games mattered just a little more.”

      I don’t know who Mo Egger is, but that piece of writing sounds like one of the radio talk guys who love to stir things up for “discussion.” I would say that this site is filled with the more sabermetric-embracing fan and if you honestly looked through the game logs the past week and thought people weren’t enjoying themselves, I don’t know what to tell you. I like discussing strategy and really enjoy seeing viewpoints that differ from mine, but the quoted blog post is the type of divisive, argument for argument’s sake type of thing I try to stay away from.

  34. Greg Dafler

    1) Who says that “sabermetric obsessed crowd” don’t enjoy it first and say “but it’s May” second? Those aren’t mutually exclusive thoughts.

    2) “But it’s May” means you’ve got the lead, now you’ve got to keep the lead. The way they are playing right now, they could very well do that.

    3) This team can stand toe-to-toe with the Cardinals. They split 16 games with them last year. Other than opening day, the games they’ve played them this year have been close.

  35. Greg Dafler

    @Kyle: Yes he’s a radio talk guy. The few times I’ve heard him, he likes to put up a sabermetric strawman that he can knock down.

    Wednesday he was on in the car on the drive home (1530am around 5pm) after Bailey’s outing and the sweep of the Pirates…he’s talking about backup QB’s. WLW has Tracy Jones talking about Lord knows what. The 3 local (Indianapolis) sports channels are talking about (1) auto racing (2) NBA and (3) golf.

    I was pumped about the game, the sweep, Homer’s start, and had to settle for an FM music station.

  36. jdarts

    @Steve: I’m a jackass for posting something that a ton of Reds fans feel? Don’t get your panties in a wad, I apologize. Very classy of you to refer to me as a jackass tough. By the way, Mo Egger is a very knowledgeable fan, not just “some radio host”. I know that makes you feel better knocking him down though(post me a stat on local radio hosts ratings to prove your point). Sorry if that offends the sabermetric nerds, but get over it.

    • Chad Dotson

      C’mon, guys…settle down. I had already edited the “jackass” comment, but jdarts responded quicker than I could.

      Quit with the namecalling. What I love about the community we have here — and jdarts & Steve are both frequent contributors — is that we usually disagree, even vehemently, without all the namecalling that you see elsewhere on the internets. Let’s keep it like that.

      Consider this your only warning.

      Now, that said…I am sabermetric obsessed, whatever that means. But if the Reds win with Orlando Cabrera leading off, I’ll be the happiest guy in the universe. We ALL love the Reds here. I’m not sure why we should be separated into different types of Reds fans.

      We’re ALL happy at how the Reds are playing right now. Aren’t we? I know that I’m thrilled.

      • Jason1972

        I’m not sure why we should be separated into different types of Reds fans.

        Maybe it’s because the Sabermetrics guys often behave as if anyone who doesn’t follow their ‘advanced metrics’ is some kind of backward, Dark Ages Luddite who is beneath their contempt? I mean just mention the stats of the stinking masses like RBIs or Errors to some guy calculating UZR and replacement value on his slide rule and you can practically see the condescension dripping over IP.

  37. jdarts

    @Steve: By the way Steve, I wasn’t even talking to you. I didn’t write the piece, I just posted for the people who love to spout constant negativity, not you. Sure sounds like someone has a complex though. You may want to calm down and not take a simple post so personally. I didn’t send it to you for cryin aloud, so the jackass line was just a bit over the top. I always find it funny when someone has the guts to call someone a name over a message board though, very intimidating.

  38. Greg Dafler

    Reds pitchers have tossed three complete games in the last week. When’s the last time that happened?

    After the week the Reds had, Arroyo’s complete game 7-hitter was kind of “ho-hum”. 😀

  39. Greg Dafler

    As an individual accomplishment that is. Three complete games in one week has got to be rare across baseball nowadays.

    Obviously, the total game, series, season impact is just outstanding!

  40. jdarts

    Sorry if that post offended anyone. It was well intentioned, and I only posted it because it’s nice to see and hear some positive talk in Reds country. It had a lot less to do with sabermetrics, and a lot more to do with constant negativity. I have nothing against sabermetrics. We all know it’s a valuable and accurate source of information, and does help in predicting future performance. My only problem with sabermetrics is that to often some fall in love with the math, and less with other attributes/guts/immeasurables of an individual player. People get locked in to those figures and that’s it, that’s the final say. I’m one of those people who likes to sit and watch the game, see a players intangibles on top of their ability, and just enjoy it(that’s not to say the sabermetric crowd doesn’t!). It just means we see baseball from a somewhat different perspective and there’s nothing wrong with that. Again, I apologize. Agree to disagree.

  41. Chad Dotson

    @jdarts: You don’t need to apologize.

    I just want everyone to remind themselves, before posting a comment, that we all love the Reds, even if we don’t love them in the same way all the time.

  42. Jason1972

    @Chad Dotson:

    Chad, why should I take that claim seriously if can’t provide empirical evidence to support it? My DBN (Defensiveness Beyond Necessary) ratio and Snark Per Words Posted aren’t high enough to warrant such consideration.

  43. pinson343

    I don’t view sabermetrics as splitting Redleg Nation, or good baseball fans generally, into separate camps. Anyone who views statistical analysis as useless is just ignorant, statistical analysis beyond batting average and HRs has been done by GMs since Branch Rickey and probably before then.

    On the other hand, anyone who views sabermetrics as the “be all end all” is just naive. It’s a developing science, with a long ways to go. And the value and contributions of a player will never be reducible to a single uncontestable number, whether it’s called WAR or not.

    I don’t believe a single regular contributor to RLN fits either of the descriptions i’ve posted above. What we have here is a spectrum of informed viewpoints, which is what makes this such a strong blog.

    There’s no ideology in baseball !

  44. Veteran Leader

    I see this board needs some veteran leadership right now, so allow me. People can disagree civilly and respectfully but we keep it in house here at Redleg Nation, and resolve it in house. If any of you go to the media or other message boards for support then you’ll have big trouble with this here poster. 🙂

    So let’s keep up the clutch posting and good body language around here and everything will be fine.

  45. pinson343

    Thanks for that, Veteran Leader. It’s been a good but tough week, and some of us are feeling it. After your calming words, I’ll sleep better tonite.

    PS Are you Scott Rolen ?

  46. pinson343

    Bronson Arroyo has been one of my favorite Reds ever since he joined the team. For one thing, he’s such a smart player. With the bases loaded today, I felt he would take advantage if Penny gave him an opportunity. Sure enough, he sees a pitch on the outside corner and up, and he punches it into right field with a compact swing.

    Why couldn’t more hitters take that approach when a single can do serious damage ? Or even to just get on base ?

    I hate it when a “contact” hitter doesn’t make contact much, or only hits weak ground balls, because he’s swinging from his heels.

  47. pinson343

    Speaking of smart, Arroyo gave a clinic today on how to pitch with a big lead. Once the Reds led by 6 after 6, he threw 29 pitches in the final 3 innings, 24 for strikes.

    The result: he allows only 1 run on a solo HR, and is able to complete the game.

    I hope our young pitchers were paying attention.

    Pitchers like Robin Roberts and Jim Palmer would applaud.

  48. World

    The funny thing aboout this is that if you took this “discussion” regarding UZR formulas and the sabermatic jargon into the clubhouse, I can assure you that the majority of players and coaches would put their two cents in by way of an interesting string of obscenities.

    I’m with them. Tell your UZR to shut up.

  49. Furniture City Red

    I must admit that I had to Google UZR to find out what it was…Phew, I feel better having admitted that. 😳 All I know is that I Love Baseball. Period. Admittedly, I haven’t kept up with the Sabermetric stats that a lot of the guy’s on this forum swear by. From what I can tell – in my humble opinion – They are helpful in evaluating players, and are often quite interesting – but they’re not the Be All/End All that some think. I still think that good old-fashioned stats like BA, RBI, HR, etc are also useful.

    Apparently some guy’s were getting a little snippy last night. I hope that was an isolated incident and this site doesn’t become like most of the others out there where cheap shots and one upmanship are the norm.

    😀 HAPPY MONDAY MORNING REDS FANS – IT’S GOOD TO START THE WEEK IN FIRST PLACE, Don’t ya’ think? 😀

  50. Bill Lack

    This discussion made me think of something else….I’m assuming the Reds attendance downturn was when the team went into the tank over the course of the last decade…but that is also when they started televising many more games than they used to (I think the number now is 145). I don’t go to nearly as many games as I used to…and one of the largest reasons is that it’s much easier (and cheaper) to sit in my family room and watch the game on the tube than it is to go downtown, find a parking spot, walk to the stadium, etc. Does anyone else agree with me that the increase of televised games has also had a part in the decline of Reds attendance?

    • Steve Price

      Does anyone else agree with me that the increase of televised games has also had a part in the decline of Reds attendance?

      Bill, I really don’t think it does; I think the economy has hurt, but the losing has hurt more than anything else.

      I work for a food distribution company, and our customers’ in-store sales are down. We’re a national company and disposable income seems to have hit the midwest (our sales region) more than other areas. I know we’re not going to as many games this year (Bats or Reds) for this reason. We’re in Louisville, not Cincinnati, but it’s affected us going to Bats games, too.

      As I mentioned earlier in the thread….even if we’re winning, the Reds probably won’t see an attendance bounce to the last month and that probably won’t be as much as you may expect. If we were to do extremely well in the post season, there will be some bounce, but it will take winning INTO next season (a couple of months) before fans will believe it’s for real.

      On the other hand…fans fall from winners very quickly if they start losing again

      From baseball.reference.com (under “teams”, choose a year then find “scores and results”
      1998 record 77-85, 4th, attendance 1,793, 649
      1999, 96-67, 2nd, 2,061,222
      2000, 85-77, 2nd, 2,577,371
      2001, 66-96, 5th, 1,879,757
      2002, 78-84, 3rd, 1,855,787
      Moved to GAB in 2003

      If you’ll check, you’ll find a gradual increase starting in June, 1999, a good jump in mid-September, then an explosion over the last week when fans realized we had a chance.

      It was then a steady 2000 as we were 2nd almost all year (be sure to look at our home games only)

      In 2001…we fell to fifth by mid-May…and our attendance collapsed at that time.

      It’s the losing…not the TV

  51. Greg Dafler

    @Bill Lack: If they win, fans will come. Being on TV 145 games a year only helps spread the product, IMO. Perhaps it impacts local attendance during losing seasons. If they’re winning and the weather is nice, walk-up crowds will be increasing over the summer. If they finish the season on a high note with a positive outlook to 2011, then season ticket fan base will increase.

    They’re in 1st place now. Perhaps this doesn’t change people’s game attendence in the next few weeks. But I’d imagine more people are trying to watch the game now. As they watch and the Reds continue to win, then more people will be drawn to watch the game in person. If the games aren’t on TV, then I think the lag between the team winning and people showing up at the ballpark is even longer.

    That’s for the locals. We live a couple of hours away from Cincinnati, and the TV expansion allows us to watch more Reds games than we ordinarily would. Being on TV more hasn’t changed how many games we go to in a year.

  52. TC

    What the hell happened in here yesterday? Yesterday was a great day. The only stat that matters to me today is 1/2 game in 1st place. 😉

  53. pinson343

    @Steve Price: Yes. And a big factor in the jump in 2000 attendance was Junior’s first year here. He wasn’t out hurt until mid-September.

  54. pinson343

    When I was talking about what a smart player Arroyo is, I forgot to mention his going from first to third on the single to Holliday. Right in Holliday’s face. That was priceless.

    Bronson clearly enjoys the intensifying rivalry with the Cardinals. Brings him back to his glory days.

  55. pinson343

    @World: We all know baseball players don’t give a flying you know what about UZR.

    But their choices for Silver Slugger every year show they do care about OBP and slugging percentage, even if they don’t think of it in those terms. They appreciate the importance of getting on base and of the long ball. They don’t just vote in the guy with the highest batting average.

    • Steve Price

      World: We all know baseball players don’t give a flying you know what about UZR.

      Let’s be real…here’s why…it doesn’t help veterans.

      Defense is usually the first skill to go for position players. Since defense has such a mystical/legendary/reputational bend to it (see Ozzie Gold Gloves over Larkin), a stat like UZR will cost veterans jobs and money.

      Junior Griffey was a very good centerfielder early in his career; he was not a good centerfielder here.

      Derek Jeter makes big plays at shortstop; but he’s not a good shortstop.

      Do I need to start on Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera in relation to Paul Janish?

      Veteran players don’t care about UZR’s…as young players make it to arbitration years, and UZR (or whatever it becomes) is more refined, it will be more accepted.

      Just like BABIP…batting average on balls in play that’s helping redefine the need for defense (as well as things like UZR).

      There’s an accountant/actuary punching the calculator while we speak…with an ensuring argument with the Marketing Director on the horizon.

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