2009 Reds / 2010 Reds

I KNOW this is nonsense, but…

The Reds are 7-7 when Scott Rolen plays this year. They’re 1-4 when he’s out.

They were 27-13 in his games last year, after the trade. In the 20 games Rolen missed after joining the Reds, they were 6-14.

So, in Rolen’s three months, the Reds are 30-24 (.556) with him, 7-25 (.213) without him. He’s played well, to be sure, but no player in history – not Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, or even Juan Castro makes the difference between a 90-win team and a 35-win team (the two records extrapolated to a full season).

28 thoughts on “I KNOW this is nonsense, but…

  1. Willy Taveras IS the difference between a 90 win team and a 35 win team, just the opposite of Rolen

  2. In checking out Rolen’s stats from this year, the average MLB player has 33% more runners on base when he steps up to the plate than does Rolen. Imagine if the bases were clogged up with runners how many RBIs he could have!

  3. This much I know, Rolen consistently gives better at-bats than Votto. You could make a strong argument for batting Rolen third against lefties.
    And while I’m on the subject of the batting order, it’s time to move Bruce up to fourth.

  4. why is it nonsense?

    it’s USUALLY a cherry-pick type stat used by those who don’t understand numbers to justify a non-productive players playing time.

    but it CAN be a real and obvious number. Why do you think the Cavs have a losing record when Lebron doesn’t play?

    Rolen has been one of the most valuable Reds so far this season. Take away one of your most productive players and the Reds will lose more often.

    plus…think about the replacement. Cairo??? That’s a huge drop in production.

    WAR
    .7 Votto
    .6 Hanigan
    .4 Rolen and Janish and Arroyo
    .3 Bailey
    .2 Bruce, Herrera and Leake

  5. @mike: You put it in perspective pretty well. Rolen’s WAR is .4 player over 14 games. For a 162-game season (obviously never possible w/ Rolen), that’s 4.62.

    Even with the worst possible replacement (and his primary replacement has been the excellent Janish), Rolen’s production is nowhere near the difference-maker.

    It’s his veteran savvy.

  6. @Chris Garber: well Janish has only played half the time when Rolen’s been out. Cairo/Francisco have been the other half.

    The .4 WAR for Rolen is also a bit confusing. His defensive portion of that is in the negative….which is a tiny bit hard to believe. I guess it is clear he’s lost of a step and if we remember he looked really bad on defense in the 1st couple games. Didn’t he make all 3 of his errors in the 1st week? I guess what I’m saying is I expect his defense to get better if he’s healthy

  7. Anyone else having issues with the site loading with Firefox? It loads and everything looks fine, but just before it is finished, everything just goes white. When I view the site in IE, things work fine.

  8. @Chad Dotson:
    over the weekend I was having the “whiteout” issue from the HPQuickstart environment on my laptop. Everything is fine tonight (monday 26 april). Thanks for the quick f

  9. I love the reference to Juan Castro – in the same sentence as Ruth and Williams. Juan is currently batting .333 with 7 RBIs in 39 ABs, leading the Phillies to another NL pennant.

    They showed him make a sparkling play on espn’s Baseball Tonite the other nite. Aaron Boone said: “Best hands of any player I’ve ever played with. ”

    And who could ever forget his walk off HR for the Reds on Cinco de Mayo ?

  10. One thing with Rolen, of course, is that we don’t have much else in the way of RHed hitting. In the Pirates series, for example, the losses to Duke and Maholm may not have happened with him in the lineup.

    Hanigan helps somewhat. An analysis of the combined effect of Rolen and Hanigan in the starting lineup would be interesting.

  11. The point about Cairo being his replacement is critical.

    And his replacement in 2009, Rosales, was not hitting.

    Now if we just had Juan Castro backing him up ….

  12. @pinson343: Rolen and Hanigan in the lineup at the same time??? Does that happen? πŸ™‚

    This year the Reds are 3-1 when they both start
    Last year the Reds were 7-3 when Rolen and Hanigan started
    10-4 not bad πŸ™‚

    interestingly enough one of the loses last year when they both started was Rolen’s 2nd game (think they lost the 1st two games with Rolen in the lineup) was a game when Hanigan BATTED 2nd in the order!!!!!!! Probably the reason we’ve never seen that again. 😦
    Of course it was a 6-4 loss to a good Colorado team which was a 4-4 tied until Masset blew it in the 11th

    I think this is really really simple. The team would win more games and if the pitching is on win a LOT more games if we saw something like

    Stubbs/Dickerson
    Hanigan
    Votto
    Rolen
    Bruce
    Phillips
    Gomes/Dickerson
    Janish

    of course, at this point one of Stubbs or Dickerson needs to start getting on base. Imagine a guy who gets on base in front of Votto and a guy who can hit behind Votto? and a slugger behind both of them?

    another way to put it is other than Votto and the choice of leadoff hitters the lineup and who is on the field is all wrong

    one thing I didn’t really realize was that I learned while looking up the games in which Rolen and Hanigan both started was how many games the Reds lost at the end of last season when Tatum or Miller started at catcher. The Reds lost MOST of their games at the end of the season when one of them started.

  13. Just think how much more impressive this would be if the math was right. Rolens record is actually 34-20 not 30-24 it’s the difference between a 102 win season vs. a 45 win. πŸ˜†

  14. Pingback: Welcome to Reds Country » Around the Blogosphere

Comments are closed.