Baseball Prospectus has three items about the Reds today…

1. Discusses injuries to Ryan Hanigan and Chris Dickerson. BP says if you watch the video of Dickerson’s injury, to note that his shoes are not tied tightly. I’m squeamish about such things and haven’t watched it; what do you think? BP says that UCLA’s legendary coach John Wooden “used to start each season’s practice with a lesson in tying shoes.” BP also suggests that more players should probably get their ankles taped — not suggesting that Dickerson doesn’t, just offering advice. BP says Reds are playing it smart, though carefully, with Hanigan after Scott Rolen‘s recent concussion.

2. BP says that Todd Frazier is looking good at this point in AAA, having reached base six times in three games, with all three of his hits being for extra bases. He’s played 2B twice and LF once.

3. On the BP pay side, there’s a long article about the Reds recent transactions. Says that Matt Maloney and Sam Lecure are both flyball pitchers without dominant stuff which could cause problems GABP. Lecure is also struggling against lefthanders. Also, says that Ramon Ramirez belongs in the pen, things haven’t gone well for Daryl Thompson‘s injury rehab, and that the door may be opening for Travis Wood. I have to say, looking at Wood’s listed size (5-11, 166, which means he’s probably smaller), he’ll have to keep pitching well to get chances. The scouts don’t like small starters like Johnny Cueto. (listed at 5-11, 174, which also means he’s probably smaller). Small starters typically end up in the bullpen.

In the same article, there’s a rather lengthy analysis of the Reds outfield situation, with and without Jay Bruce. Here’s the key phrase to BP’s opinion: “The key point is that no matter how you slice this up, you’re basically left with a crummy outfield in every combination. Now that Dickerson’s joining Bruce and (Willy) Taveras on the DL, that’s even more true, but it was true with all three healthy.”

36 Responses

  1. GregD

    Can rehab assignments extend into the minor league playoffs? I was wondering if Bruce had to be done with his rehab by the end of the AAA regular season or if the Reds wanted to give him more AAA time without using an option year, could they keep him down during the playoffs?

  2. GreatRedLegsFan

    Outfield is a real bad situation, without any trade possibility and not so good results from recent arrivals, it let the possibilities for 2010 reduced to Bruce, Gomes, Nix and Dickerson. Taveras is a train wreck. Balentien and Stubbs haven’t shown too much, so far. Heisey has been slumping at AAA. Francisco at LF? Could be…

  3. Mark in CC

    Speaking of shoes, what were those bathroom slippers Dusty was wearing last night. They were red, but multicolored and looked pretty odd. Isn’t there a uniform dress code on that kind of stuff. Just another example of the lack of discipline workings its way through the organization.

    I guess if you can walk around with sweatbands, and a toothpick you can wear any kind of shoes you want.

    I like the idea of Bruce in the AAA playoffs, I hope that is allowed.

    I think potentially a Balentein/Francisco platoon could provide some needed power in leftfield if Juan can play defense there.

  4. Bill Lack

    Actually, Wooden started with teaching his players how to put on their socks…and he did it every year for every player.

  5. Glenn

    I still think that Bruce is going to develop into a top tier hitter. His poor season and then injury have really contributed to this disaster of a season.

    I like Nix, Gomes and Dickerson but I think the Reds still need to develop or in some way acquire a centerfielder who can not only play his position but can meaningfully contribute to this offense. That being said, I think its doubtful, with this budget and how much money is being paid to a dead weight player like Taveras, that a player like that will be on next year’s roster.

  6. Mark in CC

    Checking the 2007-2011 Basic Players Agreement(http://www.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf) I think Bruce can go on Rehab for the AAA playoffs. I remember a couple of years ago Fraiser moved from Billings to Dayton a couple of days before the playoffs. It wasn’t rehab but I would think it would be the same thing.

  7. Joe

    Dickerson’s injury happened because his left foot bent inward at a 90 degree angle. I fail to see how the tightness of his shoes factors in. It was mentioned on TV, but why the heck does he never dive back to first? I always thought that someday he would jump back to the base, fall off, and get tagged out. And now it happened, with the bonus of a sprained ankle. My litle league coach taight us to always dive back to first. Did noone in the Reds organization bother to teach CD this?

  8. Steve Price

    I suppose the thought is if the shoe was tighter (and the ankle wrapped), the ankle would have had more support and may have prevented that 90 degree turn

  9. Steve Price

    Point of reference for Jay Bruce

    Adam Dunn at age 21: 280 plate appearances, .262 BA/.371 OBP/.578 SLP
    Adam Dunn at age 22: 676 plate appearances, .249 BA/.400 OBP/.454 SLP

    Jay Bruce at age 21: 452 plate appearances, .254 BA/.314 OBP/.453 SLP
    Jay Bruce at age 22: 333 plate appearances, .207 BA/.283 OBP/.441 SLP

  10. David

    I’m not concerned about the outfield. I want the Reds to get a good look at Stubbs. It’d be nice if he can finish in the .275/.340/.450 range. If he can manage that, then I think he’ll be up pretty early next year.

  11. David

    Can anyone please explain to me why Edinson Volquez JUST went on the 60 day DL when the Reds recalled Miller and McDonald?

  12. Steve Price

    I think if Stubbs can manage .275/.340/.450 he’ll be starting next year and should be.

    To this point he’s .154/.214/.346

    His Baseball Prospectus minor league translation for his time at Louisville this year: .245/.333/.354

  13. GregD

    Stubbs hasn’t slugged .450 since college. I’d suggest that .260/.350/.375 is more realistic with .370obp/.400slg as a possibility for his peak years.

  14. Steve Price

    Lincoln was just now moved to the 60 day DL, too.

  15. Dan

    Yeah, if Stubbs isn’t slugging .400 in Louisville, I don’t see how we can expect him to slug .450 up here.

    You know how many guys on the current team are slugging .450? Four! Votto, Gomes, Nix, Owings. That’s it.

  16. Eddie

    I’d be highly surprised if Stubbs hits .275 considering he’s never hit higher than .277 any year in the minors. Stubbs is getting more credit than he deserves because he was a 1st round pick.

    Edinson just went on the 60 day because we needed a space open on the 40-man. No reason to put a guy on the 60 day until you need a roster spot.

  17. GregD

    Yes, players don’t get moved to the 60-day DL until the 40-man roster spot is needed. I don’t think there is any advantage or disadvantage to have less than 40 players on the 40-man roster. So, they tend to keep players on the 15-day DL unless/until a 40-man spot is needed.

  18. Dan

    If Stubbs can regularly be a .260/.360/.400 type guy, I’ll be thrilled.

    What to do with Dickerson now, though? I think Dickerson is a good player, but he’s got a lot more value as a CF than as a LF/RF.

    Offensively, I think he’s an above average CF, but below average LF/RF (b/c of his lack of much power).

  19. RC

    Well, if Stubbs and Dickerson are both kinda the same guy, then one of them is expendable.

    What do you suppose you could get back in an offseason trade if you packaged Cordero, Dickerson, and… say, Francisco? And you picked up 33% of Cordero’s money? Or maybe sub Alsonso for Francisco…

  20. Dan

    Hey now… you’re not implying that Alonso and Francisco have similar values, are you?? 😉

  21. RedBlooded

    I actually would like to see an outfield of Bruce, Dickerson and Frazier against righthanders platooning with Balentien, Stubbs and Heisey against lefthanders. Let it play out who can do the job. And play who is hot. We aren’ going anywhere important next year, anyway. It will let you know where you want and/or need a free agent in 2011. That, of course is an outfield of 6 players, but Frazier can also play the infield. And you might want to play Bruce and Stubbs and maybe Heisey some against the same handed pitchers. Taveras, of course would have to be DFAed. Why hasn’t that happened already.

  22. RedBlooded

    We also might be looking at Votto in LF in 2011. It might be good to give him some time out there in 2010.

  23. RC

    Honestly, no, I wasn’t implying that. Although… no, it’s way to early to make such comparisons.

    But they’re both looking like first basemen, and we seem to already have a pretty good one of those, so unless we’re planning on moving him somewhere else or something…

    Just thinkin’ out loud.

  24. Eddie

    I agree Bill. In 2007 in AAA Votto only hit .240 against LH pitching. Dorn is highly under-rated and would be considered a good prospect if he ever learned how to hit over .200 at the beginning of the season.

    RedBlooded I can’t disagree with you more but that’s mostly because I hate platoons. Guys can’t get into a rhythm that way, the lineup is constantly changing, the order is constantly changing and you never learn whether a younger guy can hit left-handed or right-handed pitching.

  25. Steve Price

    I think Francisco will be traded this fall….may be with Phillips, with Frazier being the new 2B for next year?

  26. David

    I know what Stubbs’ numbers are and where he projects. That said, for a month long audition, I’d expect his numbers to be inflated. We can always assume he’ll come back down over the course of the season. That’s why I wrote what I did.

    I still don’t understand the love affair with Dorn.

    Votto, Stubbs, Bruce in 2011 seems like a realistic outfield.

  27. Dan

    Agreed. Votto/Stubbs/Bruce with Heisey and Dickerson seems pretty good to me.

    I guess I’d like a little more power off the bench if possible — Gomes or Balentien maybe?

    Seriously, though, they’re either too stupid, too stubborn, or not really trying as long as Taveras is still on the roster. I’m not kidding. DFA him once he’s healthy, and then I’ll believe that they’re paying attention and behaving rationally.

  28. RC

    But there’s been absolutely no hint that anybody “official” (not just us yunces) has dicussed actually moving Votto to left, has there?

    And if there has been, why wait until 2011?

  29. RiverCity Redleg

    I believe the word is that Joey does not want to move to LF. He feels he’s earned his spot and has worked hard at hid 1B defense. But, I have seen nothing official one way or the other.

  30. Dan

    Gordon Beckham would look pretty good at shortstop right now. 🙁

  31. wanderinredsfan

    Uhhh….Beckham isn’t a SS, nor does he project as a major league SS either. However, I sure would love to have Beckham at third, while retaining two legit pitching prospects (Stewart and Roenicke) and experimenting with EE in LF, rather than giving all that up for Rolen. Overall, I still prefer Alonso’s bat, but his lack of position in the near future makes him expendable and likely less-valuable than Beckham overall.

  32. Dan

    Well, true, the White Sox have decided not to play him at SS now. But is that b/c they think he just can’t hack it? Or just b/c they think Alexei Ramirez is that good?

    Either way, think of the Keppingers and Hairstons that we’ve been playing there and putting up w/ the defense for so long. If we’re willing to do that, don’t you think we’d be willing to run Beckham out there? At least he can really hit, whereas Keppinger and Hairston were marginal w/ the bat.

  33. wanderinredsfan

    Beckham is playing sub-par defense at third, and likely would be pretty poor as a ML SS. I’d much rather have a SS field first, then develop into a decent hitter, rather than the other way around. Think Concepcion or Ozzie Smith. We can use hind-sight with the draft, but couldn’t most teams do that with almost every draft? I mean, why not just say that it would be nice to have Tulowitski or Ramirez at SS? Wouldn’t those have been better draft options at the time?
    As to your question; Do I think Beckham would be better at SS than Keppinger or Hairston? Probably, but none are long-term solutions on any legitimate team. Personally, I’m willing to give Janish his chance to stick at the position. If he can manage to salvage his season and up his line to around .240/.320/.350 by season’s end, then I think he get’s the job out of spring training. Even if he doesn’t, I think we should come to terms with the notion that either Janish, Cozart, Bolivar, or Richar will likely get the nod by opening day. I just don’t see any other option, considering the dearth of available ML shortstops. The price is just too high, and the Reds just don’t have the means.

  34. doktor

    Steve @26 I have been thinking about something similiar, what would a package of phillips/cordero bring back. given how Arroyo/harang are supposedly untrade-able because of thier big $$$ deals, then those 2 would be the next guys to get the roster/salary flexibility and talent to fill in the Reds weak spots.

  35. Steve Price

    If Bolivar or Richar is our shortstop at the start of next year the season will be over at that point.

    The same may be true for Janish. Batters don’t learn to hit in the big leagues. Ozzie Smith had the extreme lucky/luxury break of moving from a grass infield in San Diego to the turf infield in St. Louis where his bouncers became hits and doubles.

    In fact, if you take Smith’s and Garry Templeton’s careers and cut and paste them at their trading point you would almost think the same shortstop stayed in San Diego and the same shortstop stayed in St. Louis.

    Concepcion in the minors was a good hitter…only spent two years in the minors…his age 21 year was .294 in AA and .341 in AAA.

    Janish is 26, which is not prospect age…it’s peak age (26-29)….it’s possible he could approach 670 OPS, but it will be a short-term solution; it won’t stay there long.

    Cozart is a better longer term possibility, but his bat hasn’t brought him any attention yet. He’s 23 and needs to move very quickly now if he’s a real prospect.