2009 Reds / Willy Taveras OBP Watch

BP Comments on Drew Stubbs and Edinson Volquez

From the free side of Baseball Prospectus…they’re confused about Drew Stubbs and concerned about Edinson Volquez:

First….about Drew Stubbs:

Just confusing

Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds (Triple-A Louisville)
Monday’s stats: 3-for-4, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB, SB
So the Reds keep throwing Willy Taveras out in center field pretty much every day, despite the fact that he’s pulling off the rare double threat of both an on-base percentage and slugging percentage under .300. Meanwhile, Stubbs is now batting .281/.370/.375 at Triple-A, and his numbers are brought down by a June slump. He’s nearly as fast as Taveras, a better basestealer (42-for-49 in his attempts), and arguably the best defensive center fielder in the minor leagues. Basically, he’s just a flat-out better baseball player on every level and deserves a shot.

Then, about Edinson Volquez:

Edinson Volquez (10/4)
Scott Rolen (8/5)
It was a busy day for surgeons, as Tim Kremchek had to go into Volquez’s elbow. As expected, Volquez had a torn UCL, which was replaced in a Tommy John procedure. What wasn’t expected was the flexor mass problem that was revealed, which multiple sources described as either “shredded” or “ruptured.” The Reds say they expect Volquez back in 12 months, a very specific timetable which surprised many Reds watchers. Normally, the Reds estimate 9-12 months, so was the full 12 an indication of thinking that the flexor issue would keep him from hitting the aggressive end of the timetable, or is it—as I think—that 12 is the best-case scenario, and that they didn’t want to give an even more conservative estimate? For all intents Volquez is done for 2010, but he’s young enough to correct his mechanics and come back well. The Reds are also keeping a close eye on Scott Rolen after taking a hard shot to the head. He was held out since he was still having some symptoms. The team will continue to hold him out as long as symptoms are there, but they don’t think he’ll be out long.

61 thoughts on “BP Comments on Drew Stubbs and Edinson Volquez

  1. In terms of possible August trades, it would help us a LOT for Harang and/or Arroyo to have 2 or 3 really good starts in a row. (I liked seeing Harang’s 10 K’s last night!) This might make some desperate teams consider them.

  2. Dan (49) – I’ve said this before, but I think the worst part about Gonzalez getting all of the PT at short (or a non-Janish player when AGon was hurt) is that we DON’T know what we have in Janish (at least offensively). He has 98 plate appearances this year and those aren’t even regular plate appearances. This is just too small of a sample to tell us anything about his real offensive abilities. The best way for the Reds to gauge Janish is to let him play every day from here on out. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it’s still the best way and really, what’s to lose.

    If I’m Jocketty, one of my top concerns right now is who the everyday shortstop is going to be next year. I’m not bringing back Gonzalez unless it’s for league minimum (and even then, maybe not) and I don’t have anyone in the minors bangin on the door, so my options are Janish or a free agent. In order to make an informed decision on whether to spend money on a free agent SS ($$$) or a different position of need, I need to know Janish’s true value. Less than 200 total MLB PAs over 2 years doesn’t tell me much. Also, sitting on the pine is doing nothing for Janish’s development. I would have preferred to have Janish in AAA the entire year getting regular ABs than giveing him the MLB “experience” he’s gotten this year. His usage this year hurts both his career and the organization.

  3. the one player is a poor mans version of another player is sorta fun

    it is odd even. So I’m going to try and find the true rich persons version of Taveras looking at the type of hitter he is.

    a no power speedster who doesn’t walk

    since 1961 there have been 21 players who got 175+ SB while having a SLG below .400 by age 28

    In order of OPS+ skipping some players here is are the poor-person’s-list

    Willy T is a poor mans Brian Hunter
    who is a poor mans Tom Goodwin
    who is a poor mans Vince Coleman
    who is a poor mans Juan Pierre
    who is a poor mans Roger Cedeno
    who is a poor mans Tommy Harper
    who is a poor mans Mookie Wilson
    who is a poor mans Marquis Grissom
    who is a poor mans Dave Collins
    who is a poor mans Willie Wilson
    who is a poor mans Terry Puhl

    I think as you look down that list you can decide where on the list is a player you’d actually want starting.

  4. Well done, Mike.

    I’d take Tommy Harper on down, but I would not to be stuck with of those players’ careers. Mookie actually had a pretty solid run between 1984-1988, and Marquis Grissom was a lot worse than I recalled.

  5. oh and of the 21 OFers who are fast with no power since 1961 Taveras has the lowest OPS+

    and by the way, Taveras is fast approaching Patterson as the Reds CF who hurt the team the most in the last 50 years

    1 Corey Patterson 2008 -30
    2 Bobby Tolan 1973 -29
    3 Willy Taveras 2009 -25
    4 Curtis Goodwin 1997 -18
    T5 Reggie Taylor 2002 -17
    T5 Eddie Milner 1984 -17

    and along those lines Gonzo is quickly approaching being the SS who’s hurt the Reds the most in the last 50 years. And to be honest those other seasons aren’t all so horrible when taking defense into account. The Reds have a long history of great SS. Gonzo, if he continues to play could easily end up being the worst in Reds history.

    1 Dave Concepcion 1983 -17
    2 Jeff Keppinger 2008 -16
    T3 Alex Gonzalez 2009 -15
    T3 Jeff Branson 1993 -15
    T5 Pokey Reese 1997 -14
    T5 Juan Castro 2001 -14
    7 Ray Olmedo 2003 -12
    8 Juan Castro 2000 -11
    T9 Dave Concepcion 1971 -10
    T9 Barry Larkin 2002 -10
    T9 Pokey Reese 2001 -10

    when adjusting for position Willy T has been the worst in baseball this year
    T1 Willy Taveras -25
    T1 Emilio Bonifacio -25
    3 Delmon Young -21
    T4 Chris Davis -20
    T4 Chris Young -20
    T4 Jose Guillen -20
    T7 Eric Byrnes -19
    T7 Garrett Atkins -19
    T9 Dioner Navarro -18
    T9 Magglio Ordonez -18
    T9 Alexi Casilla -18

    in other words we aren’t just talking about poor production we are talking about historically horrible production from these two

  6. Travis, Tommy Harper on down was my thought as well
    the only thing to consider is if any of those players had sort of a late peak in their careers. I didn’t look at their performance 29+ years of age.

  7. I looked at each player’s peak years (best sustained run of OPS+ relative to each player’s own career), and found they almost all peaked by age 27. Harper and Mookie each peaked later and became much better all-around ballplayers. Not sure if that means anything, but here’s the results of my work:

    Willy T (2005-2007, ages 23-25)
    Brian Hunter (1996097, ages 25-26)
    Tom Goodwin (1998, age 29)
    Vince Coleman (1985-90, ages 23-28)
    Juan Pierre (2003-08, ages 25-26)
    Roger Cedeno (1999-2001, ages 24-26)
    Tommy Harper (1970-73, ages 29-32)
    Mookie Wilson (1984-88, ages 28-32)
    Marquis Grissom (1992-96, ages 25-29, but another mini-peak in 2002-03 … hmmmm)
    Dave Collins (1979-84, ages 26-31)
    Willie Wilson (1979-82, ages 23-26)
    who is a poor mans Terry Puhl (1978-85, ages 21-28)

  8. Mike,

    this stuff is just hilarious.

    Of all the guys listed, I’d take Tommy Harper’s 1970 season when he batted .296 with 31 homers, 82 rbi, and 38 stolen bases.

    The ugly truth about five tool players whose power never develops….is that they peak earlier than the slugging type players such as an Adam Dunn or a Harmon Killebrew.

    That’s why those skills (power and walks) are called old player skills…they get to play until they’re old. Speed disappears earlier…even defense disappears early…I was surprised to see that the Reds had traded shortstop Roy McMillian (the god of Reds defensive shortstops) at age 29.

    Longest careers: speed and power
    Middle careers: power only
    Shortest careers: speed only

  9. the defensive skills leaving early (players like this usually play CF/SS/2B) is important and why a handful of these types of players play way too long in their careers. People still see the tools but assume they translate into defense.

    It’s also made me wonder why some have said Dunn will decline sooner. His plate discipline is going nowhere, he’ll have that even when he’s 50. His defense is already terrible. And raw power like his will take a long while to decline. I can honestly see him hitting 30 HR and BB 100 times as a DH when he’s 40

    and I think this is something the Reds don’t see with Gonzo. That his defense is already in decline and he plays an important defensive position

    Despite weaknesses in LF and C (not really at C if the right players starts) I think we have a bigger overall weakness. Up-the-middle. I reacently read another study that showed if you have good overall production and defense (not just defense but hitting and defense) up the middle you will win.

    Our up-the-middle with Taveras-Gonzo-Phillips-Hernandez has been the worst in baseball
    Phillips despite being good just can’t make up for the rest. I really do have to wonder even if Janish is not going to hit how much better this team would be this year if our starting up the middle was Dickerson-Janish-Phillips-Hanigan all season. Even better if the Reds found a SS in the off season but I understand not a tiny bit.

  10. LineUp I would like to see come September!

    1.Stubbs CF
    2.Phillips 2ND
    3.Votto 1ST
    4.Rollen 3RD
    5.Heisey LF
    6.Dickerson RF
    7.Hanigan C
    8.Gonsalez SS


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