Reds in Winter Ball

Here is a link for viewing how all of the Reds players are faring in winter ball this off season. Below is a summary of how some of the players are doing.

The Arizona Fall League is wrapped up for Reds prospects. Sean Henry (.817 OPS), Chris Valaika (.783 OPS), and Justin Turner (.811 OPS) all had good showings. Drew Stubbs (.636 OPS) struggled.

Robert Manuel (1.98 ERA) was the only Reds pitcher to do well there. Carlos Fisher (10.80 ERA), Pedro Viola (8.20 ERA), and Sean Watson (9.95 ERA) all got beat on pretty good.

The Hawaiian Winter League is complete also. Yonder Alonso (.929 OPS) and Todd Frazier (.922 OPS) both played very well. Phil Valiquette (8.20 ERA) did not fare nearly as well.

Juan Francisco (.985 OPS and 7 BB in 100 ABs !!!!) is tearing up the Dominican Winter League. Danny Richar (.621 OPS) is struggling there. Sam Lecure has a 4.60 ERA there after four starts.

Chris Heisey (.965 OPS) and Adam Rosales (.745 OPS) are off to good starts in the Puerto Rican Winter League.

Luis Bolivar (.783 OPS) is off to a good start in the Venezuelan Winter League. Justin Mallett (3.45 ERA) and Matt Maloney (3.42 ERA) are throwing well there.

Daniel Guerrero (2.18 ERA) is off to a great start in the Mexican Pacific League.

There are some other notable Reds players in winter ball without much playing time yet. Follow their progress at the link provided above.

Rule V Draft

The Reds set their 40 man roster for the upcoming Rule V Draft by adding prospects to the 40 man roster to protect them from being drafted. They sent LHP Tyler Pelland and INF Andy Phillips outright to Triple-A Louisville. Phillips refused the assignment and is now a FA.

Purchased the contract of RHP Carlos Fisher and LHP Matt Maloney from Triple-A Louisville.

Purchased the contract of RHPs Robert Manuel and Sam Lecure from Double-A Chattanooga.

Purchased the contract of INF Juan Francisco from Single-A Sarasota. These moves are all now reflected on the Redleg Nation Big Board.

Doug Gray over at REDSMINORLEAGUES.COM has some excellent posts on what Reds prospects will be available in the draft and some interesting names of other teams’ players who are also available.

2009 Projections

Marcel and Bill James’ 2009 player projections can be found at FANGRAPHS. The Bill James projections can be found by individually searching for a player. He seems to have only projected the players more likely to be full time players’ though.

I have downloaded the Marcel projections and pulled out all the Reds players currently on the roster. I then did a quick and dirty projection for the Reds 2009 season based on runs scored and allowed using the Pythagorean Formula. The projections are let’s say, very kind to the Reds.

W L WP
83 79 0.510

The .772 OPS projected for the offense would have ranked 3rd in the NL last season and the 775 Runs scored would have ranked 5th. That’s compared to the .729 OPS and 704 Runs scored last season. These offensive numbers seem pretty overly optimistic to me. Chris Dickerson’s projected .854 OPS stands out as being the most overly optimistic offensive projection.

The 4.36 team ERA would have ranked the Reds 8th in the NL last season and the 759 Runs allowed would have ranked them 9th in the NL last season. That’s compared to the 4.55 ERA and 800 Runs allowed by Reds last season. On a quick first glance, none of the individual pitcher projections jump out at me as being unrealistic.

I hope to do the same type of thing with the ZIPS and Chone projections when they come out, and perhaps see how any player moves over the winter affect the team’s projected record.

35 Responses

  1. Aaron B.

    God knows we are due for a lucky break, and it just might be Dickerson… sure its optimistic but it shows how close we are if some of these guys really turn it up a notch (or maintain what they did for sustained time)…

    Sure we still need to make some big moves, but we have a legit shot of being a respectable team.

  2. mike

    based on the current 40-man roster and the Marcel projections here is your Reds lineup and potential players to fill out the roster.

    Lineup
    .851/.367 Dickerson – CF
    .726/.334 Keppinger – SS
    .858/.365 Votto – 1B
    .804/.351 EE – 3B
    .800/.336 Bruce – RF
    .772/.325 Phillips – 2B
    .762/.344 Castillo – C
    .736/.332 Rosales – LF

    .748/.345 Hannigan – C
    .724/.316 Richar – 2B
    .728/.349 Hopper – OF
    .706/.321 Janish – SS
    .697/.330 Freel – util
    .695/.295 Gonzalez – SS

    this team needs a big bat to play corner OF and a SS who can both hit and play defense. I think that lineup is awful and see nobody with the exception of C and SS we could replace and it would only be a defensive upgrade.

    Starters

    3.80 Volquez
    4.22 Harang
    4.43 Arroyo
    4.47 Cueto
    4.54 Owings

    4.57 Thompson
    4.93 Belisle
    5.10 Bailey

    Bullpen

    3.76 Cordero
    3.81 Burton
    3.90 Ramirez
    4.14 Bray
    4.33 Roenicke
    4.43 Herrera
    4.72 Masset
    5.26 Majewski

  3. rob in stl

    Given the Reds have 1 lefty on the 25 man (Bray) I look for ’em to take a flyer on another in the Rule V.

  4. mhopp

    I think the pitching can do a little better than that…Bray @4.14? Burton @ 3.80? Harang @4.22?

  5. mike

    yeah I’m not worried about the pitching as much as I am that offense. That offense will be terrible.

  6. mike

    I should also mention those #s are projected OPS and OBP

  7. preach

    That is a sorry looking lineup. I’m rather encouraged by the pitching, but that lineup looks weak. If we start the season with Keppinger and Rosales being any more than bench players, we are in some serious trouble.

  8. mike

    If we start the season with Keppinger and Rosales being any more than bench players, we are in some serious trouble.

    this is it, I think you’ve nailed the Reds needs. While the Reds talk of finding “help for the bullpen”, “a lefty reliever” and “a veteran starter” what they should be focused on is a big bat for LF and an all around SS

  9. preach

    Let the rumor mill start with me: It’s no secret the A’s are trying to sign Furcal and will target Renteria if that doesn’t work out. Now, Bobby Crosby has hit pretty poorly and while his defensive ratings are not the best, he had a bad stretch early that impacted them greatly. He actually picks it pretty good and would be a definate upgrade from Keppinger. I’m not excited about the possibility, but it wouldn’t suprise me for Walt to check into this one. He was always loaded with potential, and was the main reason Beane felt OK to let Tejada walk. A change of scenary might do him some good. Once again, I’m not amped about this, but it would not suprise me to see us inquire. What about a multiple player deal: Crosby and bullpen help for Bronson? What outfield help could they possibly deal?

  10. mike

    Crosby does play great defense when he’s not hurt (he’s been hurt on and off most of his career) but he’s been a pretty bad hitter. I’ve been disappointing for a long time in both Crosby and K Greene (SD). They were both top prospects and while both have been OK neither has hit.

    Here are the worst 20 active hitting SS with at least 2000 PA

    RCAP PA OPS
    1 Neifi Perez -166 4841 .681
    2 Royce Clayton -160 8158 .680
    3 Cristian Guzman -112 4834 .693
    4 Angel Berroa -78 2752 .682
    5 Juan Uribe -77 2842 .700
    6 Cesar Izturis -68 3137 .627
    7 Alex Gonzalez -49 4347 .695
    8 Adam Everett -47 2524 .653
    9 Jack Wilson -44 4417 .687
    10 Chris Gomez -33 4122 .682
    11 Bobby Crosby -30 2385 .686
    12 Omar Vizquel -15 11082 .693
    T13 David Eckstein 0 4572 .713
    T13 Felipe Lopez 0 2866 .724
    15 Orlando Cabrera 8 6533 .721
    16 Jhonny Peralta 16 2811 .771
    17 Julio Lugo 22 4569 .732
    18 Khalil Greene 25 2642 .731
    19 Mark Grudzielanek 27 2852 .713
    20 Julio Franco 28 3247 .731

  11. Josh

    Preach, you want to give up Arroyo, a decent SP option under a decent contract for a slight upgrade at SS and a middle reliever? Doesn’t make sense to me. Arroyo is worth way more than that.

  12. preach

    There is also a lot of contract eating that would have to occur. I am also inclined to have some decent prospects as well. Oakland may make a really good trading partner considering each teams pressing needs.

  13. Dan

    How do “Marcel projections” work?

    B/c I have to say, I am not impressed with any system that projects Wilkin Castillo (.321 OBP in the minors) with a .344 OBP in the majors.

    That while Hanigan (.383 OBP in the minors) is projected for a .345 OBP in the majors?

    What?

  14. Tom

    This page begins discussing the Marcel projections and has a link to the explanation of the formulas used. I’m guessing the Rel column, for which Dickerson and Castillo are both around 33% is the reliability of the projection since these players are projected off of small sample sizes of numbers in the majors. I look forword to the other projections coming out to see how they look and how the Reds 2009 seems to be shaping up.

  15. Aaron B.

    Maybe they are planning on bringing Stubbs up half way thru the season. I think we are paying Freel as a starter and they are gonna try to play him like one. That means he can play OF, 3B, 2B — they could still opt to play Phillips at short which I think should be considered.

    We have a very obvious need for a left handed reliever, I’d like them to make a good offer for Beimel. I know crazy to spend big money on a reliver but between Affeldt and that last second signing of — they ended up spending 3M on a good lefty reliever and a horrible SP. Take that 3M and give it to Beimel in a multi-year deal. The guy is in his prime and was very good statistically the last two seasons — I know he made our lineup look foolish last year.

    I don’t think the offense will big a top 5 offense but it might not be so bad, there are guys who hit for average and guys who can steal some bases available, they can manufacture some runs this season, whereas Dunn and Griff pretty much eliminated that part of our offense in the first half. We were a decidely better team at manufacturing runs when those two were dealt for a couple of pretty decent arms. So things are looking up and I think the offense could surprise. I am still not against signing a LF though… What about Kotsay did someone say he was available?

  16. Matt McWax

    Keppinger should bounce back to form. At minimum, he will hit lefties well (.901 ops in ’08 and .986 ops in ’07) giving a good platoon option. Gonzalez did well against righties with the Reds but I see a strict platoon with Kepp and Gonzalez being an unlikely scenario. I’m just suggesting you may get better production out of that position than these predictions indicate. The Wilkin Castillo projection is humorous to me. I think Votto should do better than his projection. He ops’d .959 after the all star break and dropped a 1.123 on some good pitching in September. I’m for the youth movement since we’re nearly built to rely on it (finally).

  17. Dan

    Castillo (minors) – .321 OBP (1809 AB)
    Castillo (majors) – .302 OBP (32 AB)
    Castillo (Marcel projection) – .344 OBP

    Hanigan (minors) – .383 OBP (1822 AB)
    Hanigan (majors) – .367 OBP (95 AB)
    Hanigan (Marcel projection) – .345 OBP

    I’m interested to hear the explanation, but frankly I can’t think of any that would satisfy me. That just seems like pure bunk to me.

    Here’s my Dan projection based only on my own guesswork:

    Castillo – .290 OBP
    Hanigan – .350 OBP

    We’ll see who does better… 😉

  18. Dave from Louisville

    Why not give a one year deal to Omar Vizguel?

    If they signed Omar and traded for Beltre, moving EE to left. Our infield defense would be absolutely ridiculous. You almost wouldn’t need a that big offensive bat, with a defense like that.

  19. mike

    Why not give a one year deal to Omar Vizguel?

    because he’s awful and past his prime?
    His range is gone and he’s been a worse hitters in baseball the last two seasons
    I’d rather see one of you at SS than Vizquel.

    Here are the worst hitters in baseball over the last two seasons with at least 600 PA

    OPS OPS
    1 Tony Pena Jr. .566
    2 Omar Vizquel .597
    3 Michael Bourn .616
    4 Cesar Izturis .624
    5 Brad Ausmus .626
    6 Nick Punto .630
    7 Jason Kendall .631
    8 Bobby Crosby .635
    9 Adam Kennedy .638
    10 Corey Patterson .642

  20. Dan

    Vizquel is a clever thought – it hadn’t occurred to me – but I looked him up and I don’t like it.

    Vizquel will be 42 in April, and I don’t think there are many guys (if any) who can be good defenders at an important position at that age. (His range factor per 9 innings was the worst of his career last season.)

    Also, I’d be willing to sacrifice a little offense for a great fielder, but I’m not sure anyone is a good enough fielder to make up for these numbers:

    Vizquel (2008) – .222/.283/.267 (266 AB)
    Vizquel (2007) – .246/.305/.316 (513 AB)

  21. Dave from Louisville

    He won the GG at 39 in 2006, so I doubt he’s lost that much of his defensive gameif he’s healthy. I am pretty sure he was injured last year, so I would not look too much into that.

    If he’s available for cheap and we have a roster spot available I would definitely thing twice about signing him. I am not saying give he a ton of ABs and money, but having a HoF SS for a role model for some of the younger guys is never a bad thing. BP could learn a ton from him.

  22. Dan

    Spots on the 25-man roster should be for guys who you want to play. Those spots are too precious to give one of them to a 42-year-old honorary player/coach who hit .222/.283/.267 last year.

    I’d rather get Larkin or Concepcion as a coach than have Vizquel on the 25-man roster.

    Just my opinion, of course. Fortunately, I don’t have too much sway… 😉

  23. Matt B.

    Dave – winning the Gold Glove is, by no means, an accurate gauge of whom is a good defensive player. Nate McLouth won the Gold Glove this season; yet, according to one rankings (I forget which, but I believe they were posted here), he was the worst defensive CF in the game.

  24. preach

    So is that an indictment of Nate McClouth or the defensive ranking system?

    Gold Gloves can be quite political, so they are not a great judge of ability. However, more times than not winning one is indicitive of being a solid defensive player. I still believe that on defense scouts are more accurate than stats.

  25. Mark in CC

    Some bad ideas here today:

    Castillo is not a starting option at catcher. Dusty would’t play him there in September because he said he wasn’t ready to catch in the big leagues.

    If Stubbs was not ready for AFL I doubt he will be ready by mid season, if ever.

    Trade Arroyo for a stiff like Crosby? Keeping Arroyo and playing Janish would be a better idea and that isn’t a good one.

    Omar Vizquel? I would rather tell Barry Larkin to get in shape.

  26. Y-City Jim

    From Yahoo:

    The A’s and Giants are leading the charge for Furcal, with a “surprise team” also in the mix.

    The Reds? Could it be?

  27. preach

    That would indeed be a suprise. What do you think the cost on that would be?

  28. preach

    Rumor: Read that the Giants signed Renteria to two years and that the A’s offer to Furcal is 4yr/48 mil.

    If the A’s sign Furcal, then Crosby would be available for cheap, wouldn’t you think?

  29. preach

    Another rumor has the mystery team being Atlanta, with them trying to deal Yunel to St Louis for Ludwick and then signing Furcal again. Raffy still has a home in Atlanta and has good relations with the team. That’s a lot of pieces that would have to fall into place, but I could see that happening.

  30. Y-City Jim

    Furcal’s agent says Oakland has made no such offer. I would think of Atlanta as a “surprise team.” They have been mentioned as an interested team.

  31. Phill

    I know I’m late on it all but according to the +/- system Bobby Crosby’s defense is almost equal to Jeff Keppinger. Using the same system Omar Vizquel is in the top 10(ranked 9th in mlb). Is it difinitive? Not at all. Rating and ranking defense is so iffy but what can ya do!?

    If the Reds aren’t going to sign a good hitting shortstop I’d honestly rather wait it out see if Gonzalez will be able to actually play. If he can’t I’d let Janish start again. Janish in the minors was good defensively. The way I see it I’d rather a cheap in-house all glove-no stick option than paying for it out of a free agent or a trade.

  32. earl

    “winning the Gold Glove is, by no means, an accurate gauge of whom is a good defensive player. ”

    The Gold Glove that was pretty funny was one that Rafael Palmiero won when he DH’ed all but 20 games one season.

  33. preach

    The Pirates just signed two guys from India who have never played baseball before. I’m not sure what to say next…

  34. NickP

    The Reds should jump in and offer Renteria that 2 year $18 million offer. Since it looks like they won’t offer Phillips a chance at SS, go get one who can hit.

  35. preach

    Krivsky was just hired as a special assistant to the Orioles. The following is a transcript of the first conversation Wayne had in his new role:

    “You only have two catchers on your current roster? Two?!? My God man, you might as well just throw to the home plate umpire. And look, they are both right handed and actually swing a bat once in a while. You are so fortunate that I am here. I have a left handed, no hit, bat who is great with pitchers. You will think you have Arnold Palmer back on the mound….What’s that? Oh, JIM Palmer. Wow. Two catchers. Good thing I have Paul’s number on speed dial right next to Chad’s. Maybe one of them might be available if we are lucky.