At least according to John Fay and the Denver Post…

But he thinks it would cost Johnny Cueto, at least.

I’ve been a Reds fan since the late ’60’s, with my luck of being able to attend plenty of games at Riverfront during the BRM era. I was sitting in the Green Seats in the OF when Pete came home in ’84 and was in the Red seats when Glenn Braggs reached over the fence in ’90 to beat the Pirates. I have had many favorites from Jim Maloney to Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin, Adam Dunn, and Jay Bruce.

Join the conversation! 43 Comments

  1. Holliday and Atkins both have been available for the past month. It’s nice to see Fay finally pick up on the story.

  2. If the conversation focused on Arroyo instead of Cueto, I’d be all ears.

  3. Arroyo and Dickerson would be fair (or more than fair) compensation for 1 year of Holliday. But Cueto, no way.

  4. NO RENT-A-PLAYERS!

  5. No way, even if we could get him signed to an extension. You can (or should) be able to find outfielders

  6. No

  7. And now for a completely different rumor, the Tigers are supposedly shopping Ordonez and MLBTraderumors.com is listing the Reds as a potential destination. Does this make sense to anyone???

  8. I don’t think much of that deal.

  9. At $18 mil a year plus a whopping 2011 option for Ordonez that kicks in based on plate appearances? Makes no sense whatsoever.

  10. I wouldn’t bite on any deal for Matt Holliday. Dickerson should be given a chance to show what he can do. If anything, we need a third baseman, particularly, Adrian Beltre, or possibly Blake or Crede in free agency.

  11. Neither Blake nor Crede are an upgrade at 3B…

  12. Big N-O to Holliday. Like Jim said, No rent-a-player.

    Beltre is only an upgrade defensively. My mind has been changed about getting him, though. EE has huge upside at the plate and should be given another chance. If the SS problem is fixed, EE should seem like less of a blister.

    What’s the problem with Ordonez? That guy is good, and he’s under contract for 3 years, which means he’s not a rent-a-player. Also a righty. Seems like it makes a little more sense. The mlbtraderumors.com guy said in today’s chat that he thinks a package centered on Bailey might be enough to get him if we take on his entire contract (that’s my only issue, since it’s like 15 million next year).

  13. Ordonez is 35!! That is a problem!

    He’s going to get worse, and soon. Possibly very soon. Hard to say.

    I don’t like that risk… but I fear Castellini will. He’s just the kind of “proven” player Castellini craves.

    I’d much rather get someone young, BEFORE he’s “proven” (and therefore overpaid)!

  14. OK, Magglio has been better than I realized…

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ordonma01.shtml

    Still, I’ll stand by my comment about trading for 35-year-olds… It’s pretty much exactly the wrong time to acquire a guy. He’s still being paid at his “peak” contract, but he’s inevitably about to drop off (just due to natural aging) some time very soon.

    Depending on options, his contract is going to be either…

    1 year (age 35) for $21 million
    or
    2 years (ages 35-36) for $33 million
    or
    3 years (ages 35-37) for $48 million

    That’s a LOT of $$$ for a player in his mid-to-late 30’s. I hope the ONLY way Jocketty would consider this would be if Detroit picks up a significant chunk of the deal, or if the cost (in terms of players) would be very low.

  15. The MLBTraderumors post for Ordonez puts the Tigers needs at catching, short, and bullpen. These aren’t exactly areas where the Reds are bursting with trade bait.

    Why not forget Holliday and Mags and go for someone like Rocco Baldelli?

  16. If we’re focused on CF then I think we should go after Coco Crisp instead…

  17. “Proven” usually means nothing when they put on a Reds uniform.

    If they could get Baldelli, I’d say pull the trigger.

    No rent-a-players though, and definitely not for Cueto or any other pitching not named Arroyo or Cordero.

  18. No to Holiday. He is a Coors Field hitter.

    Mags is too expensive. If you are going to sign him for that knd of money you might as well go nuts with Manny Ramirez.

    I like the idea of Rocco. What is the status of his health? Is his muscular condition supposed to get better to the point where he could play 5 or 6 days a week?

  19. GABP and Coors field have played pretty similar the past couple of years, haven’t they?

    Holliday’s away numbers the past two seasons show less HR power than at home, but still hitting over .300. This is a team that plays a lot of road games in SanFran, LA, and San Diego ballparks.
    Away splits
    2008 .308/.405/.486 (avg/obp/slg)
    2007 .301/.374/.485

    I didn’t know he stole 28 of 30 bases last year, too. That’s the first time he’s attempted more than 17 swipes in a season (in the majors at least.)

  20. Who is cheap and young and ABOUT TO become the next Matt Holliday or Carlos Quentin?

    It’s a tough question to answer, of course, but that’s the type of solution I want the Reds to be searching for.

    It’s almost too easy, uncreative, and – most importantly – expensive to just go out and get someone who’s already really good.

    This team will only have a serious turnaround if we can get a few very clever “buy low” steals like that.

  21. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baldelli retire in the next year or two. His days as a major league regular are almost definitely over. That condition he has makes it very difficult for him to play a lot.

    Heck, Baldelli has played 9 innings in the field exactly ONCE this season, and that was the other day in the World Series.

    I like the guy, but he’s not a realistic option as an everyday CF. I’ll take some sort of Dickerson/Freel platoon first.

  22. If we are going to throw prospects away on an outfielder despite the fact that there are a plethra in the system, then might as well go after Delmon Young. I think EdE gets that done. Then put Alonso at third.

  23. Think there is a reason someone with Young’s talent is always available?

    Not a head problem the Reds need.

  24. EdE and Delmon Young’s offensive numbers are also strikingly similar, so I don’t see the point in making that trade. Also, can Alonso really play 3rd?

  25. Kevin, from everything I’ve read Alonso is NOT a third basemen. He’s a first basemen and not much more.

    Chad, while I agree that Baldelli wouldn’t be a good choice as an everyday centerfielder but what about split time in left? Something like a Freel/Baldelli split in left field. Freel can take righties who he hits best and Baldelli can take lefties who he hits best.

    That said I don’t think the Reds would sign Baldelli and it’d be a pretty large risk signing.

  26. Baldelli strikes me as high-risk, low-upside at this point. I’d stay away.

  27. The best answer, all things considered, might be someone we’ve barely heard of and who’s barely played at this point.

    Did you know who Carlos Quentin was a year ago?

    The White Sox got him for a minor league first basemen, if I recall correctly, and be proceeded to go .288/.394/.571 with 36 HR and 100 RBI.

  28. Oh yeah, and 2 other great things Quentin:

    –He just turned 26 (so is still improving).

    –He’s under team control for a few more years and his contract this year was for $400,000.

    There’s just no downside to finding a young guy who’s about to get good. (The opposite of finding someone who’s “proven.”)

  29. i’m shocked at these comments. were people not watching the reds offense last year? who’s going to hit for this team?

    holliday is a stud in his prime and we just freed up more than 20 mil per year. what’s with all the penny pinching? what’s with all this ‘we should get someone who may be good in a few years’ stuff. who says he’s a rent a player, you make the deal contingent on signing an extension, happens all the time, and holliday probably expects it.

    if we could get him extended for 4 additional years, then we’d control him for the same amount of time as cueto, and arguably get a lot more value, since i’m not convinced the kid will ever be a number 1-2 type guy (note, this is not me bashing cueto) and he only plays once every 5 days.

    so we pay more cash (which we have) for a proven player, who will be more valuable, who fits a specific need. that sounds like a good deal to me. the problem is, as fay stated, cueto would likely be the starting point, not the ending point.

    think about this, here are the pitchers competing for the 5th spot next year: micah owings, ramon ramirez, homer bailey, matt maloney, and daryl thompson.

    here’s our current outfield: dickerson, stubbs, bruce. and no bench.

    if there’s a better option than holliday (who’s also right handed, sheesh) i would love to see it, because it would be a miracle.

    thining lineups just for fun:

    dickerson
    votto
    holliday
    bruce
    ede
    phillips
    ss
    c

  30. Al – I am not saying I wouldn’t love to see Holliday as a Red, because I would. In fact I think that he plays much better away from Coors than Atkins. Regardless, I’m not convinced that adding Holliday to this team makes them a contender in 2009. So why pull the trigger if you can’t make a run this year?

    We do have a surplus of starting pitching and can try to make a move, but we should be targetting someone who is an everyday player, while at the same time still having upside. Holliday is 28 and substantially older than the core the team is building around, which makes his signing seem less likely.

    Guys like Delmon Young, Matt Kemp, Chase Headley and Franlin Gutierrez have all been rumored to be on the market.

  31. Actually the only outfielder’s I’d say are going to break with the club are Bruce and Freel. Probably Dickerson. Probably not Stubbs. I’m thinking either a trade or an FA outfield pickup but I don’t see Stubbs making the club just yet. Certainly could at any point in the year but I doubt him starting the season with the Reds.

    If Dunn will be out of the Reds’ price range, Holliday would be too.

  32. When I said “I’d say are going to break” I just mean that I think we as fans can place as locks.

  33. i agree phill, i was more saying ‘look who we have right now,” and implying that we need to get someone good. if the season started today, we’d either have hairston jr or stubbs starting in the outfield.

  34. trading cueto would be dumb
    look where we would be
    a crappy starting rotation and a power offense
    we’d be swapping the new for the old
    its like a trade in

  35. Don’t trade Cueto. He will be the best pitcher the Reds have, perhaps this year.

  36. The “$20 million freed up” argument (b/c of Griffey and Dunn I guess) doesn’t really work b/c most of that is already committed to raises to guys that are already under contract. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Freel, etc…

    I don’t remember exactly who’s getting what, but if I remember right the raises we know about already total something like $12-15 million over last year’s salaries.

    Plus there will be arbitration (I assume) for some guys.

    Those literally might eat up all of what we save with Dunn and Griffey off the books. (At least most of it.)

  37. Dan – from Tim Dierkes’ cite:

    C – Ryan Hanigan – $400K
    C – Wilkin Castillo – $400K
    1B – Joey Votto – $400K
    2B – Brandon Phillips – $4.75MM
    SS – Alex Gonzalez – $5.375MM
    3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $450K+
    IF – Andy Phillips – $440K
    IF – Jeff Keppinger – $403K
    LF – Chris Dickerson – $400K
    CF – Ryan Freel – $4MM
    RF – Jay Bruce – $400K
    OF – Norris Hopper – $403K
    OF –

    SP – Aaron Harang – $11MM
    SP – Bronson Arroyo – $9.5MM
    SP – Edinson Volquez – $400K
    SP – Johnny Cueto – $400K
    SP – Micah Owings – $402K

    RP – Francisco Cordero – $12MM
    RP – Jared Burton – $400K
    RP – Mike Lincoln – $550K+
    RP – Bill Bray – $400K
    RP – Gary Majewski – $400K+
    RP – Ramon Ramirez – $400K
    RP – Nick Masset – $400K

    Non-tender candidates: Matt Belisle – $1.25MM+

    Other commitments: Yonder Alonso – $400K

    Rotation candidates: Daryl Thompson – $400K, Homer Bailey – $400K, Ramon Ramirez – $400K

    The Reds have roughly $54.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Encarnacion, Lincoln, and Majewski. After that, they’ll still be under $60MM (with a fifth of the payroll going to the closer). The Reds entered this season with a $74.1MM payroll, so they might have money to spend.

  38. John Sickels expects a .245/.325/.380 line from Stubbs if placed on the MLB roster in 2009. However there is no question his speed and defense translate right now.

    For that reason, I would not be surprised to see a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon with Stubbs seeing the lefties, pinch running, and coming in as a late innings defensive substitution.

    An argument could be made that limiting Stubbs’ ABs could hurt Stubbs’ overall progression. There is certainly something to be said for that and to be fair the guy just turned 24. Having said that the question will always be “can he hit MLB pitching?” Eventually you have to throw the guy out there and with a limited number of OFs to choose from now may be that time.

  39. Walt and Bob!!! Please don’t get rid of the youth!!! 😥
    Baldelli or Crisp sounds great!!! With Baldelli requiring time off frequently he can platoon with Dickerson since he’s not going to be full-time!

  40. When the talk came up that the Reds was dealing with the White Sox for Griffey, I kept hoping they might be able to get Nick Swisher out of them. He is coming off a bad year, but he is young, affordable, a switch hitter and is actually from Columbus and a former Ohio State player. I’d think it is possible that Swisher might be interested in playing for the Reds.
    Swisher might also have 2 seasons until he is free agent eligible, as he has four years and what looks like a September call up on his stats.

  41. Sports Illustrated suggests the Reds sign Derek Lowe. I don’t think it’s a rumor, just something SI thinks would be a good idea. Lowe is a groundball guy, and that would seem to work at Great American. He is older, though.

  42. Stubbs is barely ready for AAA.

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About Bill Lack

I've been a Reds fan since the late '60's, with my luck of being able to attend plenty of games at Riverfront during the BRM era. I was sitting in the Green Seats in the OF when Pete came home in '84 and was in the Red seats when Glenn Braggs reached over the fence in '90 to beat the Pirates. I have had many favorites from Jim Maloney to Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin, Adam Dunn, and Jay Bruce.

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2009 Reds, Reds - General

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