Over at Red Reporter, Rick has an excellent look at the off-season trade between the Reds and Rangers, and comes to the conclusion that Cincinnati has gotten the better of the deal. It’s worth a read.

11 Responses

  1. DevilsAdvocate

    What’s up with the GM’s losing their cool lately? These guys are supposed to be the most boring people in baseball. Krivsky knew the score.

  2. Sultan of Swaff

    A run prevented is worth more than a run scored. At first it doesn’t make sense, but when you read the probabilities (which is so much of the game), it becomes crystal clear. I’m glad we have Voltron.

  3. BenL

    That “a run prevented is more valuable than a run scored” is not precisely true, I don’t think. It’s true IF you score more runs than your opponents. If you score less than your opponents its the reverse. To understand this take the author’s example and reverse everything (now you score 1 run a game and loose 93% of your games). In that case you would rather score 1 more run than save one. So, for a losing team (like the Reds) you might rather have Hamilton…

    Of course no GM should ever plan on having a losing team (except maybe the Royals). And don’t misinterpret my statement, I think we got the better end of the trade, in large part because I expect Volquez is more likely to keep performing at a high level than Hamilton. I’m just knitpicking their logic for the sake of knitpicking. The important thing to take from my argument, though, is that if you score approximately as many runs as you give up (like most major league teams) scoring a run and giving up a run are of approximately the same value.

  4. GregD

    I hope Volquez enjoys himself in the all-star game without hurting himself. Jack Armstrong didn’t come back frmo the all-star game the same pitcher.

    I remember a couple of years ago when Brad Penny went out there and threw heat for two innings. Penny is usually in the 92-94 range with his fastball but was pumping 98mph fastballs in to everyone. He wasn’t the same pitcher in the 2nd half after trying to blow everyone away in an exhibition game.

    Penny 1st half 2006 = 2.91 ERA
    2nd half 2006 = 6.25 ERA

    I don’t want to see Volquez be tempted to hit triple digits on a stadium radar gun just to see his 2nd half (and possibly longer) be ruined.

  5. buddy

    Holy Crap, a player grabs a GM by the neck and throws him on the ground…file under “never heard of that before”….bizzaro…Good to know there’s more dismal scenarios than ours though…Go Reds

  6. Phill

    Agreed GregD, although to be fair if I remember correctly Penny is like reverse Johan Santana. He’ll start off strong and trail off.

  7. DevilsAdvocate

    Everyone should go get a look-see at the new MLB Gameday feature added today – the pitch trajectories are now shown in 3-d, and the view can be rotated around and up and down. Amazing.

  8. Y-City Jim

    3-D (imagine Homer Simpson drooling).


  9. mhopp

    I’d say that guy has no chance of being picked up by anyone…It would be nice to see him grab Dusty Baker by the throat and him lose that toothpick