2008 Reds / Minors / Reds - General

Draft speculation

John Fay has a list of the four primary targets for the Reds in the 2008 draft. All are solid choices, in my opinion, and I’m impressed that all four are college players. Lower risk with college players. Yeah, Jay Bruce was a high school guy, but when it comes to the high-schoolers in the first round, there are many more Chris Grulers than Bruces.

12 thoughts on “Draft speculation

  1. Don’t disagree that college picks are lower risks. It is interesting to look at the Reds last 5 1st round draft picks (2003-2007):

    The last 3 1st round high school picks for the Reds have been: Mesocaro, Bruce, and Bailey.
    Last 2 1st round college picks: Stubbs, Ryan Wagner.

  2. I think I’m leaning more and more toward not liking the draft at all. Buckley’s quote helped me point out the big problem. Teams aren’t trying to fill needs, they are basically just picking up assets. Hoard a whole bunch of guys, hope you luck out and get the good ones, and then deal with them later. It’s a crapshoot that looks nothing like the NFL draft. I suppose it probably does help out small market teams like the Reds, but I also think it kind of cheapens the game.

    Also, with the 197,000 players in the majors and another 25 million in their farm teams, the names of players in the draft are virtually meaningless, so I can’t even feel remotely interested in it.

  3. That’s the nature of the beast, Jared. You don’t have to like it, but it’s not going to become anything like the NFL draft. Ever.

    Interesting list. The guy I’d seen associated with the Reds most often is Crow, the pitcher from Mizzou. Also, just lately, there’s Brett Lawrie a high school kid from Canada (ala Votto) who has just gone HAYWIRE at various pre-draft workouts, hitting bombs an a ridiculous rate. He’s listed as a SS, but while athletic, is supposed to be built like the proverbial brick outhouse, and will move to either a corner or behind the plate.

    I think Posey, Beckham, and the guy from USD are certainly gone before the Reds pick. The fourth guy the Reds identify is Alonso, the 1b from Miami. I don’t like 1b “prospects,” since they’re typically very limited athleticlaly, and Alonso may also have signability issues.

  4. I was mistaken on one thing: The Reds are talking about taking UGa SS Gordon Beckham, who may or may not be available at #7. I was thinking of Georgia high school SS Tim Beckham, who’ll go in the top 3.

  5. That is wack – two high-profile draft-eligible guys, expected to go in the top 5 or 10 picks, with the same name, same position, and same state. Beckhams 4ever!

  6. I want Gordon Beckham at #7 unless Posey, Alvarez, Tim Beckham or Brian Matusz fall to us (which they won’t).

    After him I am liking Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Aaron Crow (who I think is an arm injury waiting to happen but his stuff is electric and I can pray a whole lot that he stays healthy) and Brett Lawrie in that order. I wouldn’t be upset at any of those picks. If its someone other than the guys I listed I would be disappointed but hope that our guys know what they are doing…. which looking at the past few years I will have faith in them.

  7. Another question for you, Doug, actually… Do you still have faith that Drew Stubbs can turn out to be a Mike-Cameron-level major leaguer?

    I’d LOVE to have that result happen at this point. His progress has been so slow, and his numbers haven’t been very good at any level. And his K rates are still through the roof.

    Anyway… hoping you’re still a bit optimistic. 🙂

  8. I like Mesoraco just fine. He still needs to work on a lot (so does nearly every prospect in Low A), but he is showing some big time promise. What he is doing as a 19/20 year old catcher early on isn’t something guys his age do in the Midwest League.

    I don’t think Stubbs will have the power Cameron did, but more like 15-20 HR power with lots of doubles. His strikeout rate is high, but his walk rate is also fairly high. Since the beginning of May he has walked 18.5% of the time he stepped to the plate. Despite being a level higher and against better pitchers his strikeout rate is nearly identical (24.7% of his PA last year versus 24.9% of his PA this year). I have faith that he will be a solid centerfielder in the majors one day, it just is going to take longer for him to get there than what some people would have liked.

Comments are closed.