Plenty of stuff to discuss….

–The Reds selected Sergio Valenzuela in the Rule 5 draft:

He’s a 23-year-old right-hander from Mexico. The Reds lost Carlos Guevara to the Marlins. Florida took him with the sixth pick, one before the Reds took Valenzuela with. He was then traded to San Diego.

The Rule 5 come downs to scouting, the Reds say. That’s only way what happened makes sense. Guevara had very good numbers at Double-A last season; Valenzuela had very bad numbers at Single-A.

The current regime has had spectacular success with the Rule 5 draft (see Hamilton, Josh, and Burton, Jared), so it’s hard to quibble with them. But this one has me scratching my head. Valenzuela, in the words of fellow RN editor Chris (over on the Reds Listserv): “Terrible strikeout rates, gives up a ton of hits, walks too many guys, old for his levels… what’s not to like?”

Heh. I just don’t get this move.

–The Reds are reportedly among the teams interested in signing Glendon Rusch.

–The Reds are also reportedly pursuing Mark Prior. This one, I like (depending on the price, of course). And if Prior were to join the Reds, and voluntarily stick around with Dusty Baker at the helm, it would go a long way toward assuaging my doubts regarding Baker’s abuse of Prior’s arm.

Just some thoughts….

Blame Chad for creating this mess.

Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds” is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad’s musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine.

You can email Chad at chaddotson@redlegnation.com.

Join the conversation! 28 Comments

  1. Lance McAlister is reporting:

    With the fifth pick in the first round of the Major League phase, the Florida Marlins selected off the Reds’ Class AAA Louisville roster RHP Carlos Guevara, who spent last season at Class AA Chattanooga. The selection price was $12,000.
    In the second round of the Class AAA phase, the Oakland Athletics selected off the Reds’ Class A Sarasota roster RHP Jose Rojas, who pitched last season in Class A at Sarasota and Dayton.

    I’ve never understood why the Reds had no faith in Guevara, he’d been outstanding at AA for two seasons w/o being promoted by the Reds. Rojas looked good at times when I saw him in Dayton.

  2. I’m not sure I understand this pick. If you get your brains beat in at the A Level what makes anyone think that same pitcher will make it on a major league roster. I hope it pans out but boy it looks like a real long shot.

  3. Unrelated, but thought this was amusing. Cincinnati East, aka the Nationals, just signed Aaron Boone.

  4. Cincinnati is interested in Alex Rios.

  5. Yeah, Reds interested in Alex Rios, what is up with that?

    I like Rios a lot but I don’t understand trading for an outfielder, when we all know we have a surplus. Especially if they are trading away Homer which they would probably have to get Rios

  6. reds are stupid at times

    and the washington reds added more to their roster
    Bob boone is with them too

  7. Only thing that I can think of is that the reports with SF, Toronto, and Cincinnati are a bit messed up. Perhaps it is a three team deal.

  8. By the way… This is a first rate punk out.


  9. Yeah, there’s no conceivable way that the Reds would be trading Bailey and receiving Rios, not unless there’s another deal to follow (or 11 other players involved in the primary).

  10. Here’s the permalink to what David posted. Very funny stuff.

  11. Not sure this is the right thread, but the Giants turned down Delmon Young for Lincecum. As a result, my hope for Lincecum in a Hamilton/EdE probably does not provide enough ammo.

  12. The interest in Rios is interesting on two fronts. We are either are looking to fill an outfield spot because we are hoping to get rid of some in an upcoming trade and want to fill our 2009 outfield. How does Rios, Dunn, Bruce sound? But more likely we are interested because the Giants are considering Rios for Lincecum straight up. Seems like we are doing everything possible to get a stud pitcher without compromising a lot of our future players. Lets see if we can pull it off……

  13. What about EdE & Votto for Lincecum (or Cain)?

  14. Couple of things…

    Found this by way of baseballmusings.com: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/4/17400/1952 Pretty exciting if you ask me.

    Also, looking at ESPN’s list of steroid users the M’s sure do come up a lot…coincidence???

  15. The Giants may be more interested in quantity than pure quality. Theyreally need offense, and EE and Hamilton would probably be the Giants best offensive players the first day they put on the uniform.

  16. Doug is reporting that Guevara was traded to San Diego. That, of course, makes me feel much worse. Kevin Towers is a better judge of bullpen talent than anyone else in the game.

    As I said over at Doug’s, Towers focuses on finding pitchers who know how to get people out, and much less on who stands taller than their listed height.

  17. For the life of me, I can’t figure out what soured the Reds on Guevara…especially considering the condition of their bullpen the last 2 seasons.

  18. anyone else hear the rumor that the Reds are making a run at Jamie Carroll? Unless that is part of a three team deal, that makes no sense to me.

  19. Makes perfect sense.

    Carroll will back up Castro, who’ll back up Keppinger, who’ll be backing up Freel, who’ll be backing up EE.

    Plus, if they don’t have a place for him, Carroll is super-valuable trade bait. Everyone wants to get their hands on 34-year-old utility men with a career OPS 20% below the league average.

    /end scarcasm/

  20. Kevin Goldstein is the “prospects in the minors” guy on Baseball Prospectus. Here’s his take on the Reds’ Rule V pick:

    6. Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzeula from the Braves. This pick is a joke right? Valenzuela pitched 72 innings this year, split between Atlanta’s Low- and High-A teams. In those 72 innings, he gave up 102 hits while nearly walking (37) as many as he struck out (38). Sure, he’s got plus velocity, but he’s not fooling teams that have maybe, maybe three or future big leaguers on them, so what makes you think he’s going to suddenly have any chance in hell of getting an entire lineup full of big leaguers out?
    Chances To Stick: Seriously, they really took Sergio Valenzuela?

  21. For whatever it’s worth, he really liked two of the picks who came AFTER the Reds pick. (In fact, on Baseball Prospectus, consensus before the draft was that Barton, the Cardinals pick at #10, was going to be the top pick.)

    9. Athletics select RHP Fernandez Hernandez from the White Sox. Hernandez was considered the big name in the draft for many, so it was a surprise to see him fall this far. He had a good year at Double-A, as threw especially good for scouts in the Arizona Fall League, as he allowed just five hits in 12 2/3 AFL innings. Like many pitchers already discussed here, Hernandez is another one of those good breaking ball/average fastball relievers, though he does have some polish.
    Chances To Stick: Good. The A’s has a tendency to keep their Rule Five pitchers, although they’ve rarely worked out for them on a long-term basis. Hernandez has a better chance to do that as opposed to Mike Neu or Jay Marshall.

    10. Cardinals select OF-R Brian Barton from the Indians. Some people saw Barton as a possible number one pick, but he does have some health concerns, as there are whispers that a recent knee surgery was not entirely successful, and that he might be permanently affected by the injury. Unsigned out of college—most expected him to take a high-paying job at Boeing with his aerospace engineering degree—Barton is a career .317/.417/.476 hitter who does many things well, but few things very well.
    Chances To Stick: Excellent. Provided he’s healthy, Barton has everything it takes to be a solid fourth outfielder immediately. If it doesn’t work out, you can always hire him to work in the front office, as he’s pretty much the smartest player on every team he’s ever been on.

  22. Thanks for the encouragement, Dan.

  23. Just keepin it real, preach.

  24. on another note i read something about cordero completeing 86 percent of his saves last year
    and if the reds had completed 86 percent of their saves we would have won 91 games.

    also freddy garcia is on the market what about getting him?
    he was good with the white sox

  25. That’s a misleading stat because blown saves are attached to every reliever who pitches in a “save situation” not just the team’s closer.

    Weathers saved 33 of 39 opportunities for a 84.6% save pct.

    Reds had 28 blown saves in total:
    Weathers 6
    Burton 3
    Coffey 3
    Coutlangus 3
    Majewski 3
    Stanton 3
    Guardado 2
    McBeth 2
    Gosling 1
    Saarloos 1
    Salmon 1

    Looking at team totals like this, Reds were one of the worst. Boston was the best (11 blown saves & 80% save pct). If the Reds improved to just middle of the pack, they could have gained 10 wins over last year’s record…so 82-80.

  26. The Reds discussed Josh Hamilton for Dontrelle Willis and things were getting pretty close until Detroit came in with the mega deal. Thank you Detroit! Nothing like going after a guy with numbers on the steady decline.

Comments are closed.

About Chad Dotson

Blame Chad for creating this mess. Chad launched Redleg Nation in February 2005, and has been writing about the Reds ever since. His first book, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds" is now available in bookstores and online, at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever fine books are sold. You can also find Chad's musings about the Cincinnati Reds in the pages of Cincinnati Magazine. You can email Chad at chaddotson@redlegnation.com.


2008 Reds, Reds - General