Reds the New Rockies?

SI’s Tom Verducci names the Reds as the team most likely to be the 2008 version of the Rockies/Indians (i.e., a team that rebounds from garbage to the playoffs, without spending a gazillion dollars to remake their roster).

Essentially, this rebound would come from better luck, an improved bullpen, and the presence of a veteran manager.  Whether you agree with Verducci’s methodology, it’s always nice to read good things about the Reds.  This is the first time I’ve felt (guardedly) optimistic in a long time.  

(Thanks to reader Kerm for the tip).

Join the conversation! 37 Comments

  1. i like the reds chances if they don’t trade hamilton.

  2. I like the Reds if they can have one more starting pitcher to be reliable. . .I’m fairly confident that a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and one more to be reliable that could include: Belisle, Cueto, ?.
    I would like to see a run made at Silva but I’m really not that high on him and wouldnt be disappointed if they didn’t.
    I would also like to see an outfield un loaded, for a decent 3 or 4 Sp. Then i would know that the Reds really have a shot.

  3. Bellisle could be the key if he builds on what he did last year. It would nice to see Cueto slip in sometime later in the season.

  4. I hope that I’m wrong, but I just don’t see Belisle getting much better.

  5. I’d actually like to see the Reds make a run at Kenny Rogers; I’m probably in the minority though.

  6. I don’t know about you guys, but I was excited to see the Reds getting some national press.

  7. I’m a Belisle guy. I think he’s got the stuff to be a #3. He just needs to put it all together, as they say.

    In other free agent news, the Brewers signed Jason Kendall (age 33, .242 .301 .309) to a $4.5M/1 year deal. That’s just stupid.

    The Astros signed Doug Brocail (40, 76 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) to a $2.5M/1 deal. I’m not sure he’ll hold up, but he did a very nice job for the Padres last year. Decent risk for the price. It’s less than Mike Stanton will be paid this year.

  8. I agree that we need another rotation guy. A decent #3 type of starter. I still think that Snell might be a guy that would do the job and that we could work something out for. I would like Belise as a number 5, but I also doubt his ability to be consistent enough to be a number 3. I mention Snell in part because their are a couple of bullpen arms the buccos also have that I like and perhaps a deal could be worked out for a couple of arms, because I also feel that we need one more decent reliever to go with a number 3 starter to have any chance of going deep in the post season.

  9. as long as we dont trade hammy!
    i like snell
    but he is inconsistant at times

  10. I think Belisle has a decent chance of improving on last season’s production. His K/BB ratio was nearly 3:1 (2.91:1) which can be a good indicator of predicting future success.

    Based on innings pitched you would like to see a few more K’s, and fewer hits and home runs. Overall, if he is our number five starter I feel pretty good. I would take him any day over several of our previous starters over the past decade.

  11. Wow! That’s definitely nice to hear.

  12. Any team that makes the postseason has to endure the regular season first. To that end, I don’t think we should go crazy selling off bench players who bring that needed depth a 162 game schedules requires. There’s also 25 weeks of Thursday fly away and Sunday afternoon games to consider here. If we’re talking Freel and a couple minor leaguers (i.e. Valaika, Stubbs) to get that #4 starter, then I’m all over it. I like the idea of Kenny Rogers as well, although I doubt he would fit into the payroll w/ Griffey still on the books. Even if he performs like a #4, it will stabilize the back of the rotation, and eat up innings. We can designate him as Dusty’s workhorse, let him throw 150 pitches per start………….And once and for all, Hamilton will not be traded. Why would Krivsky trade away one of the two best things to ever happen in his tenure?

  13. Is anyone else uneasy that despite the announcements of the Cordero signing in the media, we haven’t heard boo from the brass? The only thing I’ve seen is the Krivsky denial from Friday in the same article announcing the deal. Typical. Apparently there was supposed to be a press conference by today.

  14. Does anyone think the Reds should trade Cueto now packaged with Hamilton or Dunn for a big name guy? Haren, Blanton, Bedard, Kazmir, and Willis are all available for the right price. I think if the Reds made a move like that they are VERY legit contenders. Hell, throw in Edwin and keep Freel for 3B.

  15. forget freel
    trade eddy and hopper and maybe a minor leaguer for kazmir. put Cantu or Keppy at 3rd

  16. Josh (#10), a couple points in response:

    1. There’s a HUGE difference in the guys you named. As in, I don’t think I’d give up anyone for Dontrelle Willis at this point.

    2. I don’t think the Reds are anywhere near contending if they trade away Adam Dunn and EE, and replace them with Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper. (Or even Freel and Bruce).

    3. I’m not sure Kazmir is really available.

  17. I noticed today that Livan Hernandez is rumored to be going to the Mets. I could not find many of his stats only that his ERA was pushing 5 last year and his whip was around 1.5. Does anyone think he might work in as a number 3 innings eater? Also does anyone know what kind of money he will get. I am doubtful he is worth it, but I was just curious.

  18. Belisle’s definitely got the stuff – but he was somewhat like Kyle Lohse lite last year (i.e., no consistency). Consistency seems like something that should naturally develop over time, but many guys have great stuff but no consistency. He’s no longer a kid (he’ll be 28 next season). I hope I’m wrong though. Maybe if they put him in as the 5th starter and he has a break out year.

    In his defense, last season was his first as a full-time starter in the big leagues.

  19. Chris,

    Of course there are big differences between those guys. I’m basically saying why not take a stab at getting one of these big name guys now (varying costs of course). The Reds can contend this year if they get a strong 3rd SP.

    I think the Reds can contend without Dunn, even though I love the guy. Bruce isn’t going to be “lights out” but I think Dunn’s power production can be replicated in a sense by Bruce and Votto (since Hatteberg had almmost nothing power wise).

    In a sense, the Reds could replace two guys who combined to hit .270 with 55 HRs with two guys who can probably combine to hit .270 with 40 HRs. The big difference being that the latter would have a strong 3rd SP, making those 15 HRs lost not as critical.

    I have no idea if my stats are close to the real stats, but you get the picture. I think that Bruce/Votto will compare similarly to Dunn/Hatteberg and if we can get a great SP out of it, all the better.

    Just my opinion, of course.

  20. ok where has the idea of livingston being in the rotation next year he was an animal till he got hurt.
    he may only throw 85 but he has monsterous control

  21. In his MLB career, opponents have batted .330 off Livingston. Even in the minors he gave up more than one hit per inning. Plus now he’s hurt. He’s not the answer.

    As I’ve said in other threads, I like a guy like Jonathan Sanchez of SF — his numbers suggest he can dominate (low hits, high K’s). Just don’t know what it would take to get him… and also don’t know if he’d be better as a starter or reliever.

  22. And since I’m a broken record… I want Carlos Quentin too! (Young outfielder from Arizona.) He seems like such a perfect storm of “undervalued” right now…

    –Arizona outfield is STACKED even without him.

    –He’s coming off a terrible year (injuries and poor performance).

    And we need a RH bat in the outfield with actual pop (NOT Hopper or Freel!)… and keep in mind that in one short year we could easily be without Dunn AND Griffey! I think an outfield of:

    LF Quentin
    CF Hamilton
    RF Bruce

    …could be young and cheap and STUDLY for a long time.

    (Sorry… but I guess I think that if I just keep posting it over and over and over again… maybe SOMEONE important might read it! Maybe? Someday? Bueller?…)

  23. Quentin isn’t going to come that cheaply. Some rumors had him going to MIN for Garza.

    Quentin is an obvious “buy low” player…pretty much everyone knows about him. Players aren’t really “buy low” players if everyone knows about them.

    The Reds should try to get him but I don’t know if there is a match. Arizona is mostly looking for pitching and the Reds don’t have a whole lot to spare.

  24. I thought Garza was going to Tampa Bay for Young.

  25. He did

  26. That is why I said some rumors “had” him going to MIN for Garza.

  27. How would these trades hit you:

    Belisle and Freel for Juan Cruz and Quentin? (Arizona’s stated need is for a starting pitcher to replace Livan.)

    Or I wonder if SF would do Encarnacion and Belisle for Lincecum? (SF needs a 3B to replace Feliz.)

    I think EE is going to be very good, but Lincecum is a freak… and I mean that in a very good way. He’s dominant. I can’t believe SF is considering dealing him.

    Let’s stay the heck away from Noah Lowry though… his numbers are headed in the wrong direction, and we don’t need another soft-tosser.

  28. There is NO WAY the Giants are giving up Linecum for EE and Belisle. I’d like to see Quentin come over too, but there’s already a logjam in the outfield and I don’t like giving up Belisle, our potential 4th SP for an outfielder to sit the bench.

  29. I don’t like posting back to back, but with Garza now with the Rays, they may be more willing to part with Kazmir.

    I’d LOVE to see Kazmir in Red. And with Delmon Young gone, they might have an increased interest in one of our outfielders (prob not Hamilton, though, with his history there).

  30. To get Kazmir from Tampa, you’d have to give up Bailey or Bruce. Not gonna happen.

  31. I’ll agre, Josh, that we have a logjam in the OF currently, but…

    –All the good ones hit left-handed, and…

    –Griffey’s and Dunn’s contracts expire after this season.

    I don’t know if Griffey and/or Dunn are even going to be here in 2009, and even if they are, we know that Griffey and Hamilton have been injury-prone.

    Quentin could be a spot-starter this year and could be ready to move in to a starting role in ’09 (maybe even earlier if Dunn or Griffey are dealt). I do NOT buy into Norris Hopper as a starting everyday OF… at least not on a good team.

    If nothing else, I would just hope Quentin would be a cheap and very talented “value buy” at this point, and I’d like to see him have his chance to live up to his minor league numbers here rather than somewhere else.

    Couldn’t hurt to have another right-handed bat with pop, too.

  32. Just noticed one other potential “buy-low” outfielder who I’d be happy to see the Reds “kick the tires” on… OF Matt Murton (age 26) of the Cubs.

    The Cubs have never given Murton a chance for some reason, even pointlessly signing Cliff Floyd last offseason to further block him.

    Murton (minors) – .312/.384/.467 (1142 AB)
    Murton (majors) – .296/.365/.455 (830 AB)

    And I’ve already mentioned Carlos Quentin (age 25):

    Quentin (minors) – .312/.427/.526 (1337 AB)
    Quentin (majors) – .230/.316/.425 (395 AB)

    I think they might come cheap, I like the fact that they hit right-handed (and with some pop), and they could make it much easier for the Reds to shop Dunn or Griffey… or, I suppose, Hamilton.

    I just don’t want to be counting on Norris Hopper as a STARTING outfielder ever. I’m afraid what we’ve seen from Hopper has been way over his head… check out the crazy minors/majors disconnect here:

    Hopper (minors) – .289/.343/.335 (3407 AB)
    Hopper (majors) – .332/.379/.396 (346 AB)

    Hopper is a good 4th or 5th outfielder… Murton or Quentin could start and add pop to the lineup.

  33. Dang… Quentin was just dealt to the White Sox, for a good-stick, no-glove first baseman who just batted .291/.383/.522 in LOW-A BALL!!

    I would’ve offered more. 🙁

  34. I like Murton too. Dusty didn’t appear to love him, though.

  35. Oh yeah, I forgot that connection. Good point, Chris.

    What do you (or anyone) think of Griffey for Murton and Marmol?

    I love Griffey, but… you gotta get younger… and I’d love to have a shutdown flame-throwing bullpen again. (Nasty Boys, anyone?)

  36. ‘We still like Murton,” said Hendry, who didn’t speculate on players he’d be willing to trade. ”And he knows we like him. Life would be a lot easier if Murton was left-handed.”

  37. I’d love that deal, but I can’t imagine that the Cubs are dumb enough to trade Marmol (let alone Murton) for Junior’s ghost.

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2008 Reds, Reds - General