Only six games left in this dreadful season. There are very few reasons to continue to watch, but one of those reasons will be taking the mound tonight: Homer Bailey. I’m glad Homer is getting two more starts before the end of the season. Perhaps he will demonstrate why he is likely to be the #3 starter next season.

Discuss it here.

44 Responses

  1. doug

    I am sure I am about to jinx this, but I hope not. Bailey was hurt on June 26th during his start. He pitched through it for a while. In the games he was healthy, he was a 3.42 ERA while allowing just 6.46 hits per 9 innings. Walk and strikeout rates arent where you would like them at (4.6/9 and 3.8/9), but he is pitching well when healthy.

  2. Matt Stiers

    Dont forget about BP’s final shots at 30/30.

  3. Matt Stiers

    Hal on Reds Live suggested we trade Josh Hamilton. Are people in Dayton taking stupid pills?

  4. Kevin

    Honestly, why isn’t Jay Bruce up here now that Dunn and Griffey and Hamilton are gone???!??!! Not enough at-bats? Also…why hasn’t anyone talked about Bailey’s ERA on his rehab assignment? What happened?

  5. DevilsAdvocate

    “Young hitters shouldn’t hit in the third spot in the order; there’s too much pressure.”

    Move on, Pete Mackanin. Votto belongs.

  6. DevilsAdvocate

    Jeff Brantley just made the comparison of Dunn’s numbers to Ryan Howard’s. Hurrah!

  7. DevilsAdvocate

    Homer Bailey: Slugger.

    3-1 Reds.

  8. DevilsAdvocate

    Norris Hopper: Slugger.

    5-1 Reds.

  9. DevilsAdvocate

    So is something wrong with Adam Dunn, or what? Votto out there in LF again.

  10. DevilsAdvocate

    Whatever pills Mal McCoy is taking, Brantley’s gobbling them too. He agrees that Hamilton should be on the trading block.

  11. doug

    Homer has allowed 2 runs, but man, he looks really good tonight.

  12. DevilsAdvocate

    Yeah, he does. This is the first time he appears in control of the pitcher-batter matchup, instead of the other way around.

  13. Y-City Jim

    I presume Hopper’s double left the infield since it drove in two runs.


  14. Matt Stiers

    I know that pitching is the main concern for the offseason since it is the reason we are out of it but there was a hugely pressing matter earlier in the year that I think we may have rectified. Our inability to hit left handed pitching early in the year spoiled a lot of good starting pitching and when you can send hopper kep and cantu out against left handers I have to agree with Tom B that we could have the best offense in the national league next year (provided that krivsky doesnt have another brain fart and not pick up dunns option)

  15. DevilsAdvocate

    The four runs allowed in four innings doesn’t come close to a proper reflection of how Bailey is pitching. Doug is still right, he looks SHARP. The fastball is popping at 92-95, it’s located well, the change is tossed in just often enough for honesty, and the curve just looks devastating. Biggio looked like a little leaguer there (I know he really does look like a little kid, but still).

  16. doug

    Only 2 earned runs though. I liked Bailey before, and his struggles didn’t really get me down, but I have not seen his curve be this consistant ever before and he is not hanging it at all. Love it.
    His change is still a ‘show me’ pitch, but he has thrown a few for strikes. I just pray he stays healthy.

  17. Dave

    Another reason to watch at least one more game is to see if Harang can set a new career high with his 17th win.

  18. Chad

    Hey, DA, did Brantley really compare Dunn to Ryan Howard? We’re making progress!

  19. DevilsAdvocate

    Brantley is not the same guy tonight. He just said that he doesn’t believe Keppinger is an everyday player next year.

  20. DevilsAdvocate

    Aha! Thanks, Chicago. Hope it’s a minor housekeeping type of surgery; must be if no one has really said anything about it.

    Of course, this the same thing we said about LaRue last spring, and that was the end of his productivity.

    Eh, Dunn’ll be fine, I’m sure.

  21. doug

    Well, where is he going to play though…. I don’t think Jeff thinks he can play every day at SS… and thats the only place where his bat is better than the current guy on the team unless he can learn to catch.

  22. Matt Stiers

    I actually agree with JB on that one. Kep has played one half of good baseball. That does not warrant everyday status when you have guys that have had successful full seasons. His defense has always been a huge question in the minors and if anyone thinks he is a 340 hitter in a full season of major league baseball then they are crazy. However I love him as an option off the bench and have him get spot starts when certain lefties start.

  23. doug

    Dunn is just getting a scope job. Its no big deal for him. 4-6 weeks and he will be back to normal, maybe even sooner.

  24. DevilsAdvocate

    Yes, Brantley did indeed make a very positive comparison between Dunn & Ryan Howard, and finished his thought by saying (paraphrasing) that he couldn’t imagine that the Reds would fail to pick up the option.

  25. Chad

    I’ll take Kepp over Alex Gonzalez, especially since Gonzo’s defense has been suspect this year. It’s a tossup, really, but I prefer the offense.

  26. Chad

    I can’t imagine that the Reds won’t pick up the option, either. But this organization has done dumber things.

  27. Chad

    Bailey’s night is over. This kid is going to be VERY good.

    And here comes Coutlangus.

  28. Chad

    How many pitched did Bailey throw?

    …or are you guys going to make me go look it up?

  29. DevilsAdvocate

    What is that thing on the back of the mound, by the rosin bag? is that a little bristled cleat cleaner? I’ve never seen something like that out on the field before. If the mound dirt is wet, the pitchers keep a tongue depressor in their back pocket.

  30. doug

    Bailey threw 58 strikes and 35 balls for a total of 93 pitches.

  31. DevilsAdvocate

    That’s terrible.

    (93 pitches for Homer.)

  32. DevilsAdvocate

    As soon as Burton really took off, Coutlangus crashed. He’s looked pretty bad lately.

  33. DevilsAdvocate

    And tragically, Majewski has stayed at exactly the same level.

  34. DevilsAdvocate

    You know, at this stage of the season, I’m not above declaring victory (Homer looked really good) and going home.

    7-5 Houston now, but it doesn’t matter. Who’s the big winner? The Reds are the big winner!

  35. mike

    I’ll take Kepp over Alex Gonzalez, especially since Gonzo’s defense has been suspect this year. It’s a tossup, really, but I prefer the offense.

    I agree that I’ll take Keppinger over Gonzalez but also because I think Gonzalez’s offense this year could be a fluke.

    He’s got a career OPS+ of 80. And has OPS+ in the last 3 seasons of 79, 85, and 77. That’s with 2 different teams and almost 1500 plate appearances.
    He’ll be 31 next year

    His 97 OPS+ sure seems like a fluke. He’s only done that well once in his 9 seasons before the Reds that was in 2003 at the age of 26.

    Next year I’m afraid we could see his sub-.300 OBP again

  36. Matt Stiers

    Why are people so convinced Kep is such a great hitter? If gonzo does leave Cantu gets my vote to get on the field before kep does.

  37. mike

    Kep is not a great hitter
    But he *has* hit in the minors (unlike Hopper) and could for sure be an average hitting SS and likely better.

    My point is that Gonzalez is a terrible hitter who’s had a good year. Keppinger is sure to be better

  38. Matt Stiers

    First of all Hopper won the batting title last year in triple A so yes he did hit in the minors. Second I dont want an avg hitting SS that plays suspect defense. If I am getting an avg hitting SS he better play exceptional defense which is exactly what gonzo does. But so many people on the forum continue to say that he is sure to be better but kep has proven absolutely nothing. Pitchers will adjust to him. I just dont see him putting up much better numbers than gonzo did this year and chosing him over gonzo puts a worse defense on the field.

  39. doug

    Are we forgetting that Gonzo is now hitting in GABP which seemingly turns peoples careers around. Don’t write off Gonzo’s year because its the outlier… GABP does funny things for people.

  40. Chad

    Hopper’s OPS in the minors was 680 or something like that. Terrible.

    He won a batting average title, sure, but he was still a below average hitter overall when “winning” that. Because he can’t hit a ball out of the infield, and because his OBP is so heavily-dependent on his batting average.

    Hopper is a quality fifth outfielder, and nothing more. That’s not to diminish Hopper…he is what he is. I like having him on the roster. Just not as a starter.

  41. Matt Stiers

    I wasnt suggesting he should be a starter. There are 4 guys ahead of him.