John Fay has a theory about the Reds and the trading deadline:

Anyway, my theory, which I’ll explore further in my Sunday Reds Insider, is that the Reds won’t do a lot at the trade deadline. I think they’ll trade Kyle Lohse and maybe Scott Hatteberg and/or Jeff Conine. Why? This is simply my theory, but I think Wayne Krivsky wants to give Mackanin an opportunity to get the permanent job.

If the Reds trade Adam Dunn, David Weathers and Bronson Arroyo for prospects, it would be difficult to continue to play as well as they have under Mackanin. By the way, the way the Reds are playing .636 baseball under Mackanin. If they play that well the rest of the way, they’d finish 81-81. That’s the magic number (or numbers) for Mackanin to get the job in my opinion.

That makes no sense whatsoever. I mean, I don’t mind if Mackanin really does end up being the best candidate for the Reds job; I want the Reds to hire whomever that is, and if it’s Mackanin, fine.

But why in the world would Krivsky stack the deck for him, rather than doing what is best for the Reds? For Krivsky to act in a manner consistent with Fay’s theory, he’d have to put the hiring of Mackanin ahead of the best interests of the Cincinnati Reds. Even those of you who think Krivsky is a moron have to concede that the man thinks he is doing what is best for the team.

I look forward to seeing further explanation from Fay because, on its face, this theory is a bit nutty.

20 Responses

  1. Shawn

    Agree all the way, Chad. If the best outcome for this year is aiming at .500, it’s time to think about next year. I just hope they do actually make a couple of deals.

  2. GodlyCynic

    Ken Rosenthal recently noted that the reason Weathers wasn’t going to be traded is that he’s been good and cheap and that Krivsky believes he needs him because if he doesn’t win in 2008, he may be gone. You simply do not trade Dunn or Arroyo if you think 2008 is your make or break year.

  3. Andy

    Good grief. This is the danger in switching managers mid-season. The new guy comes in, the team regress to the mean, and he gets all the credit. What Krivsky needs to ask himself is would he even be considering Mckanin if they had waited to fire Narron in the offseason? Me thinks not.

    The front office needs to come up with a long-term plan for the team, hire someone who fits in that vision, and stick with him. What we need more than anything is stability. Besides, I don’t think the team is playing that much greater than they’ve been playing all year. Sure, they’ve been winning more games, but I think that has more to do with the fact that they’re finally catching some breaks (3 extra inning wins in one week!) than anything Mckanin has done. The starting pitching is still mediocre (besides Harang), the bullpen is still unreliable, the defense is still suspect, and the offense is still feast or famine. No matter how bad the NL Central was last year this team is not going to compete for the post season.

  4. Bill

    Fay’s theory makes no sense…

    What makes more sense is that Krivsky sees this team playing well the rest of the year as the only way he doesn’t get fired this off season.

    There is no way that happens if he trades Dunn, Arroyo, others for prospects.

  5. Matt B.

    Ken Rosenthal just reported that Jorge Cantu has been traded from the Rays to the Reds. No word on who the Reds gave up yet.

  6. Matt B.

    Shackelford and Medlock apparently going the other way.

    Now back on-topic…

  7. CeeKeR

    Cantu, really? Why?

    Sometimes I think Krivsky just likes seeing his name in the papers.

  8. DevilsAdvocate

    Krivsky must think Cantu is the next Brandon Phillips: hyped high-level infield prospect who has seemingly regressed but is still quite young and needed a change of scenery.

    Of course, a guy like Angel Berroa could be the flipside of that coin.

  9. CeeKeR

    So instead of talking to teams about trading worthwhile players for players to help out next year, Krivsky is in deep discussions with the Devil Rays over Cantu and Shackleford?

    …and why does it seem that Krivsky only likes to trade with the few teams that are worse than the Reds – wouldn’t it make sense to try and fleece some talent from the better teams, as opposed to the Nationals or Devil Rays?

  10. DevilsAdvocate

    Important to note that Krivsky seemingly did not give up much in this deal.

    Shackelford has been a quad-A reliever and turns 31 next month, and sports an ERA of almost 5 at Louisville. Medlock, meanwhile, despite doing very well at Chattanooga early, has struggled a bit since being promoted to AAA. His ERA there is well over 5, in only 16 innings. He could very well become something good – he’s been uncharacteristically wild in Louisville, and he could regain control – but the 25 year-old middle relief prospect has less potential than the 25 year-old Cantu.

    Cantu might be arbitration-eligible this winter. Depends on how much playing time he gets in the majors this year. It’ll be close.

  11. DevilsAdvocate

    Talking to the Devil Rays makes sense, as they’ve run one of the more stacked farm systems over the past few years. Talking to the Nationals makes little to no sense, as that system has been almost completely barren since the garage sale that preceded the franchise move to DC.

  12. snake

    Cantu is a nice “buy low” acquisition. He is young and had 115 RBI in 2005. Party on Wayne!!!!

  13. GodlyCynic

    Really nothing to complain about with that move. The fewer 30+ year olds in AAA, the better. At worst, this will be a trade that benefits neither team.

  14. rickNmd

    You don’t understand the Cantu move? Wow, never call Krivsky an idiot again.

  15. GregD

    Why don’t you explain it, Rick? I would agree that the Reds received a higher ceiling player than what they gave up in Medlock. So, on the talent for talent swap, it seems the Reds have the advantage. On the other side of the coin, Krivsky has stated a preference for pitching and defense, yet for a team starved for relief pitching, he traded a minor league relief prospect for someone with a poor defensive reputation (and I haven’t seen him play, so I don’t know whether that is a fair label or not.) So the bat he acquired has no patience at the plate and a possible poor glove. I just thought that this was one of the complaints about the current team.

  16. rickNmd

    It’s easy: Cantu is 25 years old, he has four years in the big leagues and has shown power, he can play all infield positions, he gives them a badly needed RH power bat off the bench, and most of all he gives them an additional infielder since Castro will go on the DL, Lopez is on the DL, who knows how long Gonzo will be out, and we know Conine won’t be back next year.

    It’s really not all that hard.

  17. GregD

    We’ll see how it all shakes out. I liked the offense better when there were guys like Aurilia and Freel on the bench who were good PHers, good multi-position players, and good fill-ins when a starter goes on the DL. It’s much better than relying on Castro and Lopez and Moeller when a starter goes down. If that’s Cantu’s role next year, I like the move. I am concerned whether he will warm up to that role or not. I thought the lack of a starting position is what pissed him off in Tampa and triggered him to demand a trade in the first place.

    I don’t see any power on the Reds bench, left or right handed. I’d like to see them change the bench to be better offensive players next year.