06/13/2007

More on Dunn

TheNaturalMevs fears that Adam Dunn is on his way out.

Agree? Disagree? Sick of talking about Adam Dunn?

Join the conversation! 21 Comments

  1. Thanks for the link. I love this site. I agree the Dunn subject is a tired one, but it would appears now more than ever that Dunn is close to no longer being a Red.

  2. Well put. The bottom line here is that Dunn doesn’t fit in Krivsky’s plan. I think 2 or 3 top rated prospects (position players only – no relievers!) is the only way the Reds could get potentially equal to better value for Dunn. They need to receive a potential all-star or two to make it worthwhile, otherwise it’s a salary dump.

  3. And if it’s a salary dump, where does the money go. The Reds extended Dunn just 2 years ago, now they’re seemingly ready to dump the salary.

    So, are they attempting to become the Oakland A’s or the Montreal Expos?

  4. The media in Cincinnati has poisoned the well on Adam Dunn and the public is starting to buy it. I believe that somehow Krivsky will move him off this team b/c he doesn’t fit his idea of what this team should be.

    At least this isn’t the anti-marketing that the Reds used to do when Lindner owned the team. But it is unfortunate that the local media has to anti-market the team’s players. I tried to listen to Sports Talk Monday night, but it was just unbearable. The segment I listened to even had a few callers in support of keeping Dunn.

    I don’t know where the money goes if they just dump Dunn. I don’t know what they get in return by moving Dunn. I hope to God that Hopper doesn’t become the every day LFer if Dunn is traded as pointed out in the Brady Clark thread. Clark, Freel, Hopper are utility players for a reason. They’re late on the scene for a reason.

    If the idea is to trade Dunn for pitching, who’s spot do they take? Is a pitcher traded to? (With Dunn or in a separate deal)

    The bullpen has Weathers, Majewski, Coffey, McBeth, Santos, Coutlangus. Burton and Bray on the DL. (and of course Stanton.) Saarloos, Salmon, Guevara, Medlock. And with apparently only 1 rotation spot unspoken for next year, you have AAA & AA starters who can potentially be used in the bullpen. Not that all these guys are great pitchers, but relief pitching seems to be one of the deeper positions within the organization. Why trade your best offensive player for bullpen help?

    Figure it out internally. Use your bullpen appropriately. Bullpen problem solved.

  5. I don’t think Dunn goes anywhere this year. The Reds have the team option. They keep him, try again next year since the offense isn’t this team’s problem. Use the Milton money to fix whatever they can fix in the pitching department.

    Let’s say they do move Dunn. Freel’s still on the DL. Who plays if Griffey, Hamilton or Hopper go on the DL? That would be a very ugly second half of the season, and also elad to a significant hole to fill in the offseason.

  6. It doesn’t make much sense to trade Dunn for pithcing prospects now when all the Red’s had to do was draft Tim Lincecum last year.

  7. I agree with GregD on both #4 and #5. A mega-trade doesn’t bring them parts they can use. I don’t think either Krivsky or Narron is ready to plug Joey Votto into the lineup at either 1b or LF.

    Here’s what I could see: Dunn is kept, but if there’s a similarly-lousy start to next season, he’s dealt to one of the 10 teams on his no-trade list. I’m sure it covers the Texas and California teams. That gives them time to evaluate Votto.

  8. Things we’ll have a better handle on by 15 June, 2008.

    (1) Whether Jay Bruce will be able to help the big club in 2009 or will require more time in Louisville.

    (2) Whether Joey hits enough (and hits LHP) to play everyday or will have to be platooned.

    (3) Whether Joey can play LF in this league.

    (4) Whether the Homer Bailey Express has left the station or not.

    All the above argue for picking up Dunn’s option and keeping him here. He’ll only be 28 at the trading deadline next season. (Neat fact for me at least. Adam shares a birthday with my mother. My mom’s older, though.) I’m pretty sure that we can find a trading partner with one of the 10 teams on Dunn’s list and can do so without trading him in the division.

    However, a Dunn/Bruce/Hamilton OF in ’09 could be an offensive monster and better than league average defensively at two positions. And everyone would be on the right side of 30, still. I hope there is at least one person in the FO with Krivsky’s ear than thinks this might be a good thing.

    If we are going to trade a corner outfielder with a big contract this season, it needs to be the other corner.

  9. Very good comments. I wish you guys would have left some of them on my blog 😉 I am glad I could spark some good Dunn conversation. After reading over some sensible Reds fans’ opinions, maybe the media is just making a buzz. Maybe Adam Dunn doesn’t go anywhere.

  10. I’ve been a supporter of Dunn’s from the start, and I think all the criticism he gets because he strikes out is ridiculous. People can complain about his hitting with runners on all they want, the bottom line is he leads the club in RBI, and he’s been hitting 6th most of the year. He also leads the team in runs scored. Everyone says that it’s the “stat geeks” that love Dunn because his OPS is good, but isn’t it a little stat geeky to complain about someone’s BA w/2out and RISP when he leads the team in things like runs and RBI?

    His D isn’t great, but that’s why he plays left field, it’s not really hurting the team more than a few runs a year to have him out there everyday, and for the most productive player in the lineup that’s a small sacrifice. It’s baseball 101 for pete’s sake.

    However, all that said, there’s no way to measure how well a team plays/fits together that I can think of besides wins and losses, and at this point, this team is showing me that they don’t work together well. Maybe it’s the manager’s fault, maybe the team’s been constructed poorly, who knows? But as much as I think Dunn doesn’t deserve what he’s gotten here, a shakeup might be what we need.

    If we can get a top prospect for Dunn, of the “can’t miss” top 10 homer bailey type, who’s near enough to the majors that they can play next year, I think it might be worth it. Whether it’s a starter or a position player, they join the youth movement for us next year and we can sink the Dunn and Milton money into a top free agent to meet the other need.

  11. I don’t see who the Reds would spend all Dunn’s money on. The potential free agent list is here. Plus, you have to consider that Arroyo and Harang are going to be making over $20 million combined starting in 2009.

    They have an interesting contract with Everyday Eddie. A team option for 2008 that varies in size from $3-7 million depending on how many innings he pitches this year. The only free agent starters I see in that list worth pursuing (of the big money variety) are Carlos Zambrano or Mark Buehrle. Then you settle who the team’s 5 starters are, but that completely shuts out the inexpensive potential from within the organization for a number of years.

    There are a couple of big name catchers coming up for FA also (Pudge and Posada.) Not sure how heavily you pursue backstops that are on the wrong side of 35.

  12. I was just reading Christina Kahrl’s Transaction Analysis over at B=Pro and she made me aware of something I didn’t know about Dunn. And it’s not good. His home/road splits this year are pretty bad. He’s hitting .288/.406/.631/1.031 at GABP and .212/.280/.407/.687 on the road.

    Last year’s home/road OPS was .864/847 (but it was a lousy last two months at GABP for Dunn). In 2005, the OPS split was 1.057/.805. So this year looks like 2005 at home, and 2005/2006 are similar road numbers. Don’t know what it means, but that road OPS will fuel the demand for a trade.

    there’s no way to measure how well a team plays/fits together that I can think of besides wins and losses

    I think RS/RA is a better measure off the top of my head. Using RS/RA to predict the Pythagorean record corrects for good or bad luck in a team’s W/L record. If a team is too far off it’s Pythag however, and I believe the Reds are about at that break point at -4, then you might conclude other factors – bullpen, defense – are at work.

    I watched the games against Cleveland and last night’s game where Escobar clearly had the Reds hitters’ number, and I can’t help but conclude that there’s a core of talent here (unless Kriv pisses it away for middle relievers). We’re not one player away, but with the right moves, it’s possible to look at 2009 as a year the Reds’ can make some real noise.

    This is a long way around the barn to say that I’m beginning to think the way this talent is handled is at least partly at fault for the disappointing performance. So am I saying that the manager and staff should go right now? Not necessarily, because I’m not sure the in-season replacement will improve things measurably. But this off season a lot of thought needs to be put into what kind of coaching staff is needed to take this team to the next level. Narron won’t do it, but neither will anyone named Dusty, Buddy or Lou (and Joe isn’t gonna manage anywhere but the Bronx or the North Side).

    So veer away from the “Trade Adam” talk for a bit, consider two guys named Larry (as in Dierker) and Buck (as in Showalter) as your next Reds’ manager. Or maybe a young guy – name unknown – that want to build a resume. Discuss?

  13. Al said:
    Everyone says that it’s the “stat geeks” that love Dunn because his OPS is good, but isn’t it a little stat geeky to complain about someone’s BA w/2out and RISP when he leads the team in things like runs and RBI?

    Great point (other than referring to Runs and RBI, which are almost exclusively team-dependent). EVERYBODY uses stats.

    I find it amusing that the same guys who rip “statheads” endlessly turn around and talk about AVG, strikeouts, and all sorts of tiny-sample “clutch” splits. Anybody can cherry-pick a stat to support their opinion.

    The intellectually honest person tries to discover the numbers (becuase there’s no one magic stat) that do the best job of quantifying performance, and use those numbers to evaluate all players.

  14. actually phil, my point about measuring how well a team plays/fits together was about the X factor of being able to win a specific game, not just score or surpress runs. The XW/L gets more at the talent the team has, which i agree is reasonable, but they seem to lose when they shouldn’t, which is why a shakeup might be in order.

    as far as a new manager goes, i echo chris in that i think whoever it is, and i don’t know enough to suggest anyone, needs to be willing to go play the young kids and help them develop at this level.

  15. Greg: i don’t know who if anyone is going to want to sign with the reds after this season, but depending on our needs there are plenty of people on that list that i would gladly pay a reasonable sum for.

    a sample:

    Andruw Jones (31)
    Torii Hunter (32)
    Jermaine Dye (34)
    Bobby Abreu (34)
    Ichiro Suzuki (34)
    Milton Bradley (30)
    Carlos Zambrano (27)
    Curt Schilling (41)
    Freddy Garcia (32)
    Mark Buehrle (29)
    Bartolo Colon (35)
    Mariano Rivera (38)
    Francisco Cordero (33)
    Eric Gagne (32)
    Scott Linebrink (31)
    Kerry Wood (31)

  16. Andruw Jones (31)
    Torii Hunter (32)
    Jermaine Dye (34)
    Bobby Abreu (34)
    Ichiro Suzuki (34)
    Milton Bradley (30)
    Carlos Zambrano (27)
    Curt Schilling (41)
    Freddy Garcia (32)
    Mark Buehrle (29)
    Bartolo Colon (35)
    Mariano Rivera (38)
    Francisco Cordero (33)
    Eric Gagne (32)
    Scott Linebrink (31)
    Kerry Wood (31)

    Thta is a lot of old men. How about we hang onto Dunn and his youth and homegrown talent. At least we know what we have in him.

  17. well, first off, because of the 6 years of service time required to be a free agent, those ages aren’t unreasonable.

    but my point was that i like dunn a lot, and i’ll be happy if they keep him, but this team is broke and maybe we need to fix it. if they trade him and get equal value in return, it might help the reds build a winner.

  18. I really don’t think this team needs to put a lot of dollars into the FA market. It doesn’t matter why they are old, a rebuilding team that desires to be competitive over several successive seasons doesn’t need to invest heavily in the over-30 crowd.

    If the Reds are going to field a team that leaves the fans feeling comfortable that meaningful games will be played in September (and October) nearly every season, the key is to develop young talent and control it through the arb-eligible years until free agency. And to have more good, young talent in the pipeline to replace maturing talent that walks when able.

    That young player development can be supplemented by judicious trades from the farm system to get certain pieces that are needed immediately. The fungible commodities, among them relievers, the bench and the infamous late-inning defensive replacement, can be obtained by haunting the waiver wire and making cheap, low-level trades (see Denorfia, Chris for McBeth, Marcus and a PTBNL).

    The free agent market can be useful to fill a need if it can be done at a reasonable cost. But it’s unlikely that the teams star talent will ever come from that route to any significant degree.

    Any allocation of resources that doesn’t put the draft and player development first is a mistake. Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt to emulate the Indians and hire a Keith Woolner-type to explain to Krivsky what the numbers actually mean.

  19. so you’re arguing that the reds shouldn’t sign any talented free agents? okay, i guess that’s fair if you just think the reds can’t afford it or something, and i agree that they should be focusing on development, but…

    there aren’t that many teams that will have as many young starters as the reds will next year: hamilton, phillips, EdE, and votto with bruce on the way is pretty solid in that department.

    the reds aren’t big market, but they don’t have a shoestring budget either, and i’d like to think that if they traded dunn they could get another young piece to add to that list, and then have more than 19 mil come off the books that they could spend on a good free agent. all at the same time too!

    yes i want the reds to be go young, but dropping ichiro in the mix on a 4 or 5 year deal wouldn’t tick me off too bad either. now the liklihood of that, as i mentioned, is a different story.

  20. Al,

    Let me amend that. In our current situation, the combination of the free agents we can afford and those who would actually come here are not a good investment. The truly talented are going to NY, Chicago, Boston, Southern Cal. Now when the Reds are a winning franchise again – a place where the good players with choices will want to go – then we can revisit the FA market.

    As for Ichiro!, I wouldn’t give a 4-year deal to a 34-year-old whose OBP is heavily dependent on his BA and whose skill set – speed, slap hitting – is likely to decline significantly during the term of that contract. If we’re going after a lead-off guy, I want one who walks, too.

    The only FA over 30 I might want, and that’s on a 2-year deal, is Pudge Rodriguez to handle our young pitchers and bring them along. And I’m not real sure about that.

  21. As sad as it sounds, I don’t see a single guy on the free agent list al provided that doesn’t project to be overpaid and does project to at least put up their median peformance. That’s a lot of risky, under-performing players to spend money on. Zambrano’s about the only one who you could bet will turn his game back around, but he’s going to be so far out of the Reds’ price range to even consider.

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Category

2007 Reds, Reds - General