May Review Chad Dotson 06/04/2007 6 Our buddy Justin has a tremendously in-depth review of the Reds’ performance in May. It’s not pretty. Share this:TweetPocket 6 Responses Phil Rizzuto Parmesan 06/04/2007 That’s just fugly. Our outfield defense is killing us and it’s not just Dunn and Junior. Both Hamilton and Freel are -6 in center, although both are near league average in RF. I hope Hopper’s resurgence with the bat is real, because he’s our best defensive option in CF. Need to find Junior a new home and try an OF of Dunn, Hopper and a platoon of Hamilton and Freel in RF, assuming Freel can come back and be productive. Phil Rizzuto Parmesan 06/04/2007 C Trent is reporting Hamilton and Coffey up, Salmon optioned and Wise outrighted to Batsville. Y-City Jim 06/04/2007 It makes it pretty clear why Bailey is coming up. If the bullpen could just get their act together and pitch with an attitude. Phil Rizzuto Parmesan 06/04/2007 From Justin’s always excellent analysis: We’ll cover this more in my May defensive review in the next day or two, but the Reds’ defense continues to be a big problem–and perhaps, along with bad luck, has been their biggest problem on the season. The Reds’ pitching, despite giving up an NL-worst 5.2 runs per game, currently has an FIP of 3.92. That’s third in the National League. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, predicts ERA based on the peripheral stats of strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed–things that fielders have no control over. When there’s a major difference between FIP and ERA, like we’re seeing with the Reds this season, it usually can be chalked up to either a) poor defense, or b) miserable luck. So it’s far from clear that “pitching” is the root of the Reds’ problems. Homer may be – and hopefully is – a plus – but if the difference in ERA and FIP that Justin points out continues in May, Homer going to suffer the fate of the rest of the staff at the gloves of those arrayed behind him. Even the maligned bullpen has been either somewhat unlucky or let down by our D. I’m not sure what “attitude” corrects for that. JinAZ 06/04/2007 FIP was pretty bad for the team as a whole in May (13th), but they led the league (by a considerable margin) in April in that stat. I think their true ability (and what we’ll see for the rest of the season) lies somewhere in between. The defense, though, is really disappointing and a huge part of the problems this team is having. I’m hoping to have a chance to work on this tonight (bit tired though…), because -6 runs saved is very weird for Freel. Last season, according to multiple metrics (ZR and PMR), he was a full standard deviation better than average out there in CF. Hamilton…well, I think he can be an outstanding right fielder with his arm and decent range. He’s still an upgrade over Griffey in CF, of course. But that’s not saying much. -j Justin 06/04/2007 Stunning reading. I had known how poor our defence has been. It just hurts seeing it graphed. The Outfield Defence is poor in Left and decent with hamilton in center, eventually Griffey will adjust to right. The arm strength quaility of the outfield is apparent. Our Bullpen is horrible. needs to be markedly improved or else the season will be forever over. I am blown away over how stat wise how poorly we have been playing. only pitcher I have confidence in is Harang but he had a bad start and awful spring. He seems to be the only one coming around to pitch every 5 days well.