2007 Reds / Reds - General

Hopper for Dunn

From Lance McAlister’s blog today:

Liken’/Lovin’ Hopper
Anyone liken’/lovin’ him enough to consider dealing Adam Dunn and sticking Hopper in LF with Hamilton in CF and Jr in RF and using Freel as the super sub? Or is Hopper the classic Sparky Anderson guy…..”Play a bench player long enough and you will see why he was a bench player”?

So, Lance also is running a poll question:

What would you do with Norris Hopper?

a) Start him, deal Dunn

b) Start him, deal Jr.

c) Keep him as a bench player

40.82% of respondents (no info on the # of votes cast) say “Start him, deal Dunn”.

Only 5.10% say trade Junior and start Hopper.

Anyone that would rather have Norris freakin’ Hopper starting than Adam Dunn needs to have their head examined.

30 thoughts on “Hopper for Dunn

  1. I think Mr McAlister doesn’t understand the concept of small sample size.

  2. This poll should not even be in existence until at least September. I appreciate the contributions of Norris Hopper as much as anyone, but crowning him a starter based on what, two or three games against bottom dwelling teams….please.

  3. Lance McAlister is a sports talk radio guy, right? Sports talk radio is for stirring the pot and being controversial, not logical and well-reasoned. I can rarely listen. This is just the same thing, in print.

  4. Adam Dunn is without question the most polarizing player the Reds have, but this is just stupid. It makes me sick watching Adam Dunn play left field everyday for this team. I would love nothing more than to trade him this afternoon, but Norris Hopper is not the answer either. Dunn is a proven major league power hitter and the best bargaining chip this team has to offer. While Junior has been great this year, his value on the market may not be known until the deadline, whenever teams get really desperate. Love how Norris is playing, but this poll is dumb.

  5. Dunn and Jr will both be gone after this year if not next year.

    Possibly, but the motivation to move them shouldn’t be “Oh, goody, now we can play Norris Hopper every day.”

  6. If it’s small sample sizes that turn you on, Joe Average Reds Fan, let’s put Hopper in CF and Eric Milton in LF. After all, Milton’s OPS in May is 1000!

  7. Three hits in two straight games will excite a lot of people.

    Even after that, Hopper’s OPS is still nowhere close to Dunn’s or Griffey’s. Or Hamilton, for that matter. On the bright side, Hopper did get his first walk of the season yesterday.

  8. If that means we wouldn’t have to see Milton pitch again, I’m all for it!! 😀

  9. Dunn and Jr will both be gone after this year if not next year. 💡

    Because after next year, they’ll both be free agents.

  10. Because after next year, they’ll both be free agents.

    Unless the Reds pick up the $13M option after this season, Dunn gets a $500K buyout and is a free agent. I was under the impression that 2008 was Dunn’s walk year, too, until I checked here a few days ago.

  11. A lineup with Hopper, Castro/Gonzalez, Freel/Farney, Moeller/Ross… No thanks. The Reds would be fools to trade away Dunn – he’s one of our two (or 3 if you count Hamilton) legitimate power threats…and if you think the Reds can coast by winning 2-1, 3-2 ballgames and they don’t need power hitters, I’ve got a bridge to sell you too.

  12. Hoppers got speed and he seems to be a ‘make it happen type player’- a good 4th. outfielder. But as a replacement for Dunn; let’s not get carried away.

  13. I just don’t see the Reds paying Dunn 13 million dollars. I see JR. being dumped this year before the deadline. That being said, his contract and Milton’s contract free up a lot of money. I am tired of Dunn hitting solo shots, and if he could be surrounded by some good bats then he would be a great player. However, I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

  14. Dunn out Hopper in. What are the Reds going to get in return for Dunn via trade. I do think that the Reds will pick up the 13 million option on Dunn because that will be below his market value for a 40+HR , 100 Run, 100 walk 200k man. Take those numbers and compute it into a contract number it is somewhere between 15-19 million per season, Thank You of Vernon Wells. Torii Hunter in Min has a 12 million contract this year and that will go up vastly this off season, just like the price of pitching, Gil Mesche 5 yr 55 million. Mesche signed by Kansas City….Royals who spend no money at all signed him. So I believe that the Reds will pick up Dunn’s option at 13 million and then tryt o work out a long term deal. They did it with both Harang and Arroyo why not Dunn. As for Griffey. he is a free agent after 08. It should be up to him f he wants to stay or go. Hall of Famers have earned that right. I believe that he will stay till the end of his career. He ditched the White Sox to stay here in 05 and a world series ring.

  15. Hopper the late bloomer…..I thought the Reds had their eyes set on another great outfielder in AAA and AAAA Steven Smitherman. Should memory serve.

  16. Let’s take a look at what Dunn has done this year:

    97 PA (81 AB) with runners on base – 7 HR (1 every 11.6 AB)
    121 PA (105 AB) with bases empty – 7 HR (1 every 15 AB)

    The sample size is pretty small, but those numbers look good to me. I feel like the Adam Dunn Mythbusters.

    No pattern from the rest of the leaderboard:

    Prince Fielder is hitting a HR every 13.3 AB with guys on; every 10.3 AB with the bases empty.

    JJ Hardy: Every 11.4 AB w/ runners on; every 17.4 with bases empty.

    Bonds: Every 8.8 AB with runners on (he’s been walked 34/80 PAs); Every 11.2 with nobody on.

    Adrian Gonzalez: Every 19.2 with runners on base; every 16 AB when the bases are empty.

    No clue if these numbers bear out over the season, or if there’s a general pattern in baseball. I suspect there might be a tiny selection bias, in that pitchers who are likely to allow baserunners are also more likely to allow a HR in the same inning, but I doubt that’s the driving factor.

    In any event, Adam Dunn is hitting HRs more frequently with runners on base than with the bases empty.

    (For his career, Dunn hits a HR every 14.2 AB with no runners on base; every 14.3 AB with nobody on).

  17. Dealing jr or Dunn and starting Hopper makes as much sense as dealing Brandon Philips and starting Juan Castro

  18. Chris,

    You’re wasting your breath. Didn’t you (or somebody somewhere) post the solo vs runners on percentages for some of the all-time greats. With the exception of Harmon Killebrew, most of the guys atop the career HR board hit between 56% and 60% of the HRs with the bases empty. IIRC, Dunn for his career sits at around 57%. So he’s in good company.

    I think it’s too late to change the minds of those who see the glass half-empty after repeated harping by Marty and sports talk radio. No matter what the man does it isn’t enough for these folks – his always strikes out, he only hits solo shots, he can’t hit enough sac flies, he isn’t “clutch”. In the minds of these people, even his HRs hurt the team. You just can’t argue with that kind of “logic”. Might as well stop trying to confuse them with the facts.

  19. There’s always hope. 🙂

    Seriously, though – as long as people are reasonably courteous, everyone’s entitled to their own opinion.

  20. Seriously, though – as long as people are reasonably courteous, everyone’s entitled to their own opinion.

    Actually, even if they are not very courteous, they’re still entitled to their opinion. It’s just that the attention one feels compelled to devote to it is dramatically reduced. 😀

  21. Yeah, I was going to re-word that. What I technically meant is that everybody’s entitled to an opinion, and if they’re reasonably courteous, they can state their opinions here.

  22. I think he means that talk radio listeners are going against the Cincinnati stereotype, in that they favor a black player over a white one.

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