The good news is that the Reds have actually played much better than their 14-18 record (going into Tuesday’s game). According to Prospectus’ adjusted standings, the Reds Pythagorean record (based on runs score vs. runs allowed) should be 17-15. Their second order Pythagorean projection (based on “equivalent runs” scored and allowed — based on the raw hitting/pitching lines) is 18-14. Their third order Pythagorean projection (the second order figure, adjusted for strength of schedule) is 17-15.

The bad news is that the only record that matters in the standings is 14-18. According to Joe Sheehan’s article today (subscription, I believe), “the one known way in which teams can outperform their projected record is by having a very good bullpen.” Or vicey-versey, as they say.

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  1. Jim

    In the style of Dwigh Yoakam’s Intentional Heartache

    The Red Blues

    He drove south I-71 straight through all that construction
    He didn’t use no damn map to find his way
    He pulled off on a straight route just north of Lebanon
    And took mostly country roads the rest of the way

    He said I’ll give them an intentional heartache
    That’ll hurt a lot worse than the one that they left in me
    Would you all step back so a boy might could get started
    Then they won’t have to look twiced to see

    He drove up across the bridge into the stadium
    Didn’t touch the breaks slammed right into Dunner’s Chevrolet
    Tossed out his Reds cap, jersey, and signed Todd Coffey Poster
    Then shot the whole mess blue with a can of DuPont spray

    He said I’ll give them an intentional heartache
    That’ll hurt a lot worse than the one that they left in me
    Would you all step back so a boy might could get started
    Then they won’t have to look twiced to see

    He said I’ll give them an intentional heartache
    That’ll hurt a lot worse than the one that they left in me
    And tell Trader Wayne to step back so your depressed fan can get started
    Then they won’t have to look twiced to see

    He said watch this
    Then he spayed that Reds cap blue the color of how he felt
    He said watch this
    Then he pulled that Jersey out, sprayed that blue too
    He give it hell with that can of spray paint
    Then he just kind of did a little hoochie coochie dance on top of that Todd Coffey poster

    Security tried to call his brother
    Said you better come get this boy
    He said watch this
    He ran Jerry Narron back up the ramp
    He give em’ an intentional heartache all right
    Tore up his season tickets
    He said watch this here…