This Josh Hamilton story really seems to have legs. Nate Silver at Prospectus has finally run a PECOTA projection for Hamilton. Nate has an interesting explanation of his methodology, but the bottom line:

Hamilton’s 50th Percentile Projection (he’s equally-likely to perform better or worse than this): .254 AVG, .306 OBP, .409 SLG  (715 OPS, .243 EQA) in 330 PAs. Not great, but about what Jose Guillen, Preston Wilson and Craig Biggio did last year.  Those numbers were disappointing for established veterans, but I think the Reds would take them.  They’re certainly a heck of a lot better than the PECOTA projections for his competition (Hopper – 622 OPS; Crosby – 669; Moeller – 552!?).  (Denorfia’s projected at 805 OPS, if that really becomes an issue).

       

So take this projection with a grain of salt. Or maybe even an entire Morton plant. But just for fun, Hamilton’s 75th percentile projection is .274/.328/.452, and his 90th percentile projection is .292/.347/.491.

By way of comparison, that 75th percentile projection works out to be something like Mike Jacobs, or even a better version of Jeff Francoeur. The 90th percentile projection is Jose Reyes. (!)

4 Responses

  1. DevilsAdvocate

    …it now looks like there’s an even-money chance that he’ll break camp with the big club, so we needed to have something in place.

    As Silver says, his methodology wasn’t so much objective as it was selective, simply because there wasn’t enough data. And I’m puzzled why he chose to ignore Hamilton’s brief re-exposure to pro ball in low-A last year, especially since he says that it would have affected the outcome.

    There’s just no analogue for Hamilton’s storyline if he makes the roster, and the unknown normally makes people conservative. This is definitely a bold projection attempt. I think that if this had been run at the same time as the rest of 2007 PECOTA’s, that 50% projection would have been viewed as far too positive. Maybe if those 50% numbers were the 75% or 90% outcome . . .

    Aside: Reyes is much more valuable with those numbers by virtue of being a middle infielder. Plus the huge number of stolen bases.

  2. DevilsAdvocate

    I see that Hamilton had another big game tonight. I hope that this whirlwind isn’t too much, too fast. I hope he makes the team, but this insane 2 weeks has fueled a lot of buzz about him being a starting CF. Despite how well he’s hitting right now, I’m wary of how that would turn out. I really hope Griffey is ready on Opening Day, to result in a left-to-right starting outfield of Dunn, Freel, and Jr.

  3. Chris

    That’s certainly a valid point about Reyes. I was just looking at raw numbers, and didn’t mean to equate value.

  4. Dave Massey

    I think we’ll have a much better picture of what we can expect from Josh Hamilton in two weeks. It’s still the first half of spring training, and pitchers are rusty as hell. Look at Harang’s numbers. ERA above 6.50, but I’m not worried, it’s still early. But I think we are maybe putting too much faith in ST numbers. It’s not like the guy is gonna bat above .500 for the year.