Kevin Goldstein, now at Prospectus, released his system rankings today (subscription).  The Reds rank #10.  The skinny: 

 A once moribund system suddenly has a potential ace in Homer Bailey and a potential impact outfielder in Jay Bruce. Joey Votto is pretty good in his own right, but the talent falls off in cliff-like fashion in short order.

6 Responses

  1. Sultan of Swaff

    I’m gonna be the first kid on the block to cry wolf about the BrewCrew. Along with their excellent core of position players, their well stocked pipeline should make them playoff competetive for the foreseeable future. Taking a step forward this year is a must. They are starting to resemble the Tribe from the early 90’s. It’s reassuring to see the rest of the division languishing down near the bottom.

  2. Mr. Redlegs

    Anyone else dubious of this ranking? Surely too much emphasis was placed on the winning percentage of the teams and the Big 3 of Bailey, Votto and Bruce.

  3. Chris

    You’re second, Sultan. I’ve already gone on record as being really impressed by the Brewers. 😀

  4. Chris

    Mr. R, I don’t think Goldstein looked at winning pct at all, but he did look pretty much at the cream of each system’s crop, which lets the Reds look a little better than they might. I don’t know if that’s the best way or not – but since so few prospects actually make a difference at the big league level, there’s not a ton to be gained from comparing the number of C- prospects in each system.

    Also, if you don’t know him, Goldstein is more or less a scout-style analyst (i.e., not a “stats guy”). IIRC, he worked for Baseball America before joining Prospectus.

    Anyway, his methodology for these rankings:

    I began by assigning points to each team for the talent it has, giving points at differing levels within the Excellent, Very Good, and Good labels used in the recently completed Top 10 lists. Additional points were granted for average prospects, as well as talent beyond their top 10 that would qualify for that level.

  5. Mr. Redlegs

    Can’t say I’m familiar with his work. With the Internet age these sorts of folks and ratings and services seem to have come out of the cracks like insects during a fire storm.

    What was his rating on the Reds in 2005 and ’06? They leaped from one of the five worst systems to No. 10 in a year?

  6. Chris

    I would think the BA label would impress, if nothing else. I don’t have access to prior year rankings (BA is too expensive for me), but here was his low-down on the Reds, as of March 2006: What’s Working: The Reds’ system is downright awful, but at least there’s some hope now after the most recent two drafts.

    The resurgence of Votto, and the fact that both Bruce and Bailey exceeded expectations are responsible for a good deal of the jump (esp since these things are so weighted toward top prospects). Plus, the cyclical nature of the whole exercise (a system with a lot of great prospects will, by definition be “weaker” as those guys are promoted to the bigs).

    That defense/explanation aside, I’d be very surprised if the Reds minor league organization, as a whole, is one of the top 10 in baseball. The three big names – the only blue-chippers – were taken in the top 2 rounds. It’s a sign of good scouting from the Bowden (Votto) and O’Brien (B&B) eras, and good luck on the injury front, but not a ton in the way of actual player development.