As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I’d take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site for the projection. The following are the results.

Pyth. WP   W  L
 .475     77 85

Name                BA  OBP  SLG   AB  RC
Dunn,Adam         .259 .382 .536  556 114
Phillips,Brandon  .266 .320 .405  511  66
Hatteberg,Scott   .270 .360 .398  460  66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489  454  78
Gonzalez,Alex     .245 .293 .390  449  51
Freel,Ryan        .265 .361 .376  441  60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken  .270 .342 .506  423  73
Denorfia,Chris    .287 .353 .440  418  65
Conine,Jeff       .266 .333 .394  406  53
Castro,Juan       .240 .277 .351  262  25
Moeller,Chad      .206 .266 .314  223  19
Ross,Dave         .234 .326 .482  197  31
Valentin,Javier   .256 .326 .446  195  28
Hamilton,Josh     .261 .305 .412  165  21
Keppinger,Jeff    .286 .338 .360   50   6
Pitchers          .142 .164 .204  309  10
Totals            .254 .330 .417 5519 759
					
					
Name               ERA   G  GS  INN   R
Arroyo,Bronson    3.86  34  32  212 100
Harang,Aaron      4.03  33  33  210 103
Milton,Eric       4.96  31  31  178 107
Lohse,Kyle        4.96  35  27  167 101
Santos,Victor     5.08  26  20  124  77
Belisle,Matt      4.95  42  13  109  66
Majewski,Gary     4.21  69   1   77  39
Coffey,Todd       4.04  70   0   69  34
Weathers,David    5.35  66   0   69  45
Stanton,Mike      3.71  68   0   68  30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81  62   0   58  34
Cormier,Rheal     4.89  68   0   57  34
Bray,Bill         4.79  42   0   47  27
Totals            4.53 646 157 1445 797

The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That’s actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It’ll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here’s hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it’s going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.

Join the conversation! 5 Comments

  1. I find it interesting that he predicts Majewski having a better season than Bray.

    Let’s hope that Majewski recovers from his horrendous season. But Bray was supposed to be the prize in this deal I thought…he puts up a 4.79 ERA, that sure doesn’t encourage anyone to think he’s going to be the backbone of the bullpen.

    Also predicts Weathers to basically collapse…which doesn’t seem good for the first year of a two year deal.

  2. It would be wonderful if Majewski could throw 70-80 innings of near 4 ERA.

  3. I’m honestly not implying anything, but I’d like to see projections of a healthy and stable addition of Votto and Baily midway through the season.

    That may push this team towards 80 wins if they were called up and performed.

  4. It’s nice to see that Zips likes Jr.’s chances for a bounceback in avg/obp and Ross’s chances of maintaning his power. Those are two of the bigggest offensive questions I have about the team this year.

    I’ll take the over on Gonzalez’s projections – I think a move to the NL and GABP helps him more than Zips gives him credit for. He also has a Saberhagen-esque odd year/even year thing going.

  5. It has Hatteberg losing 40 points of SLG, which you can’t like. Though Denorfia is shown as hitting better than I’d expect.

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