I ran across some player projections for the 2006 season on the Fantasy Baseball.com site. They had projections for both hitters and pitchers. I do like player projections, so I decided to download their projections and crunch a few numbers to see how the Red’s would fare this upcoming season if their projections were accurate. The following are their Red’s player projections for the upcoming season:

Cincinnati Reds

Player AB R H HR RBI TB BB SB BA OBP SLG OPS RC
Kearns 564 97 152 29 105 279 80 4 .269 .360 .495 .855 101
Dunn 556 106 143 43 103 307 124 8 .258 .393 .552 .945 121
Pena 552 82 141 33 96 272 44 5 .256 .311 .492 .803 84
Lopez 552 78 156 18 72 250 53 13 .283 .346 .452 .798 86
Freel 546 90 150 4 31 204 81 45 .275 .369 .373 .742 75
Encarnacion 465 65 117 14 67 192 47 5 .252 .320 .413 .733 61
Womack 459 69 123 1 33 151 22 31 .268 .301 .328 .629 45
Griffey 445 74 128 29 84 243 57 0 .287 .368 .546 .914 89
LaRue 405 47 104 15 61 181 56 0 .258 .348 .448 .796 63
Cruz 233 25 60 6 34 96 33 0 .259 .350 .410 .760 33
Valentin 225 28 60 10 36 106 22 0 .265 .331 .470 .801 35
Olmedo 115 14 28 1 7 39 12 2 .242 .315 .340 .655 12
Machado 92 9 22 0 6 30 13 4 .239 .333 .325 .658 10
Pitchers 318 23 35 3 13 51 9 0 .110 .135 .160 .295 7
Totals 5527 807 1420 206 748 2399 653 117 .257 .335 .434 .769 817

Player IP W L S R ER K BB WHIP ERA
Harang 206 11 13 0 101 94 154 60 1.35 4.09
Milton 193 10 11 0 121 112 131 53 1.38 5.22
Claussen 166 9 11 0 85 79 128 72 1.45 4.29
Belisle 144 7 9 0 83 77 82 39 1.47 4.83
Williams 138 8 10 0 70 65 100 52 1.32 4.26
Wilson 123 7 7 0 64 60 75 40 1.39 4.36
Weathers 72 4 4 14 33 31 55 29 1.36 3.83
Coffey 69 5 3 1 33 31 44 18 1.58 4.04
Burns 60 3 3 0 27 25 53 13 1.28 3.77
Wagner 58 3 2 6 32 29 52 20 1.43 4.54
Hammond 57 4 2 0 22 20 38 16 1.15 3.21
Mercker 56 2 2 0 22 21 46 21 1.32 3.34
Shackelford 51 3 2 0 23 21 40 26 1.30 3.71
Simpson 43 1 3 3 24 22 45 22 1.60 4.62
Totals 1436 77 82 24 741 687 1043 481 4.31

Player IP W L S R ER K BB WHIP ERA
Hudson 122 7 9 0 75 70 94 64 1.47 5.15
Ramirez 89 4 6 0 48 44 59 35 1.35 4.49
Germano 84 3 7 0 40 37 61 28 1.39 3.97
Hancock 69 4 4 0 29 27 41 25 1.27 3.51
Standridge 39 2 4 0 26 24 20 19 1.72 5.49
Journell 35 1 2 0 22 20 33 19 1.49 5.25
Phelps 28 1 2 0 15 14 20 14 1.55 4.56
Totals 466 22 34 0 255 237 328 204 4.57

Offensively, the only changes I made to their projections, was to add in the pitchers hitting stats and to add to the AB totals for several position players (Pena, Kearns, and Cruz ~150+, Freel, and Womack ~100+), to get the number of team PAs for a full season up into the proper range. The biggest omission from their offensive projections, in my estimation, is Chris Denorfia, who I would have liked to have had a projection for. I would have liked to have had about 200 ABs from him, and would have not added about 100 each to Womack and Cruz. Production wise, however, I don’t think it would have made a great difference in the outcome. I computed RC for each player and totalled it for the team and used this figure in the Pythagorean theorum to compute the Reds projected W/L record for the upcoming season.

Pitching wise, they provided projections for pitchers totalling far more innings than was needed to get to the proper range for IP for full season. Therefore, I removed the data for seven pitchers they provided projections for (note the pitchers omitted are listed above, and check out those numbers for Ramirez, Germano and Hancock, Wow!), the most notable ommisions being Hudson and Hancock. I then computed runs allowed for each pitcher based on the provided ERA and IP data and totalled this figure for the team and used this figure in the Pythagorean theorum to compute the Reds projected W/L record for the upcoming season.

The Pythagorean theorum computation on the RC and runs allowed numbers produced a projection for a winning percentage of .549, or a 89 W and 73 L season. That record would definitely put the Reds in contention for the division title and/or wild card race next season.

I’m a big optimist for the upcoming season, but that is a little bit more optimism than I can muster for this roster. 🙂

Offensively, I’d look for about a .050 OPS dropoff on the above numbers from Kearns, Lopez, LaRue, and Valentin. For the pitchers, I’d add about .75 to the ERA of Wilson and Williams, and .50 to the ERA of Burns and 1.00 to the ERA of Shackelford. These changes would result in a winning percentage of .507, or a 82 W and 80 L season, which is a bit more realistic, yet pretty optimistic for this team.

The Fantasy Baseball.com site does update these projections as roster moves are made, in fact they have began posting a new revision already. If anyone runs across any more web sites out there who provide free 2006 player projections for both hitters and pitchers, reply to this post with a link, and time permitting, we’ll see how their predictions stack up.

Later,
Tom

Join the conversation! 9 Comments

  1. Well, the Reds only need average pitching to be a decent team, if the offense produces anything like it did last year. You’re right to shave off some of the peaks from last season, but even given that, the tragedy of the Reds is that average pitching would get it done for us.

    Is Paul Wilson expected to go…123 innings at league average for him would make a major difference.

  2. I wonder if those are calculated by some method, or just guesses. I would surmise it’s guesswork.

  3. I’m not surprised by these projection. The Reds got rid of a hole in the rotation by letting Ortiz go, and filled that hole with Dave Williams, who was a league average pitcher last year.

    It also looks like they brought Milton and Wilson’s horrendous numbers from 2005 closer to their career average numbers, which makes sense.

    Removing Casey and replacing him with Wily Mo in the lineup is also a plus. I think the Reds are contenders…I don’t think they’re good enough to win a playoff spot, but they’re at least a .500 team.

  4. .75 to williams era..what in gods green creation would lead you to believe that his era will be around 5???? Sounds more like you are trying to make obrien look bad because of your love afair with casey.

  5. To beat the top teams, the Reds need better than average pitching. Average will get you by the average teams but not the top teams.

  6. To beat the top teams, the Reds need better than average pitching. Average will get you by the average teams but not the top teams.

    I’m a proponent of the “baby steps” approach. Average pitching, along with our current offense, will put us into playoff contention. Once we take that “baby step” we’ll have put ourselves into a position to be able to attract (Or dare I say develop?) that “one top of the rotation pitcher” we need to put us over the top. The Reds need a lot more that that one pitcher now, so they aren’t going put together a playoff caliber rotation this winter, but if they can get back to a middle of the pack pitching staff, they can start thinking about contending again. Guess what happens if you beat up on the bad teams, and split your games with the top teams? Your games in September will mean more that getting a look at a rookie. 🙂

    Later,
    Tom

  7. Question: When you figured Runs Allowed, did you just multiply ERA x IP? If so, you left out all the unearned runs the Reds will allow. I know this is just a thumbnail calculation, but that’s still something worth adding in there, given how bad the defense has been. The 2005 Reds gave up 69 unearned runs.

    I’m guessing that would change the 89-73 Pythagorean projection to something more like 84-78?

  8. Good point Chris, but that is Runs used in the Pythagorean calculation, and not Earned Runs. I calculated ERs as you expected, then based the calculation for Runs by using the same ratio of R to ER (1.08) that the Reds had last season. I figured this would correctly reflect the same, mostly crappy and pretty much unchanged, defense we had last year for next year. It made a big difference too, that resulted in 54 additional unearned runs added onto the tally.

    Later,
    Tom

  9. .75 to williams era..what in gods green creation would lead you to believe that his era will be around 5???? Sounds more like you are trying to make obrien look bad because of your love afair with casey.

    Must be confusing me with someone else. I loved the Casey trade, I’m just waiting for the really good part of the trade to come to fruition. The part where O’Brien uses that 5M+ payflex to acquire us some above average pitching (Note Williams is average at best.). I just added the .75 to the ERA of Williams because I figured that either he or Claussen would not fare as well as they did last season, since both of their peripheral numbers were worse that their ERAs would suggest, as their XERAs for last season (4.56 for Williams and 4.77 for Claussen) illustrate. I figured Williams may fare worse next season since he is moving to a hitters park this season (Note the above projection was made for Williams before the trade.). If it makes you feel any better, add .375 to both, the Reds still finish 82-80, which is still a much more realistic projection. Both Williams and Claussen are #3 starters at best.

    Later,
    Tom

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2006 Reds, Reds - General