From this AM’s Cincinnati Enquirer:

Boras reportedly is seeking a five-year, $60 million contract for Millwood, who was 9-11 last season for Cleveland and was pitching on a one-year contract because of health concerns.

Washburn and Weaver won’t be as expensive.

But you can make a strong argument that neither is worth the three-year, $25 million deal the Reds offered Matt Morris.

I don’t understand why Washburn isn’t worth Morris money?

He threw 200+ innings in ’02 & ’03 and 177 in ’05. His WHIP is good. He’s a definite upgrade over anyone he’d replace in the Reds rotation and probably better than anyone we have. (Though you could argue that you would hope that Harang and Claussen will improve to Washburn-like numbers.)

IMO, he’s a better risk than Milton was, but the longer OB waits, the higher the price will be for less talented pitchers.

Another name that Fay throws into the mix is Shawn Estes, who was 7-8 with a 4.80 ERA with Arizona. Ugh…

About The Author

I've been a Reds fan since the late '60's, with my luck of being able to attend plenty of games at Riverfront during the BRM era. I was sitting in the Green Seats in the OF when Pete came home in '84 and was in the Red seats when Glenn Braggs reached over the fence in '90 to beat the Pirates. I have had many favorites from Jim Maloney to Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin, Adam Dunn, and Jay Bruce.

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12 Responses

  1. EricM

    Washburn is a worse fit for us than Morris. He’s an *extreme* FB pitcher.

    Add in the fact that he doesn’t strike many out anymore. That means he needs a good defense behind him. We don’t have that.

    I’d love to see us sign Millwood to a 3 year deal for about 18 MIL a year. We’d overpay to get him to shorten the deal for us. Doubt he’d take it but it’s an idea.

  2. Chad

    Estes? Makes me sick to my stomach.

    I can’t believe he’d sign here anyway. Near the end of his brief, turbulent tenure in Cincinnati, wasn’t he pretty desperate to get away from the Reds organization?

  3. Brian B.

    “he’s a better risk than Milton was, but the longer OB waits, the higher the price will be for less talented pitchers.”

    . . . which is why we’re in this situation to begin with.

    If Boras is asking $12 million for Millwood, hell, I’d almost pay it. Someone will. We’ve already got $8+ million on the table, may as well pay Washburn or even Weaver (both have had no injuries, an exclusive club as far as the Reds go) $30 million for three years.

    Of course, Boras probably told Weaver and Washburn that they will get more if they wait until Millwood has signed. Because when the supply goes down, the price goes up.

  4. al

    you want to pay roger clemens money for millwood? why not see if clemens will play for us if we have 18 mil hanging around, he was actually born in dayton, it would be a real homecoming. i jest, but c’mon, 18!?

    adding money per year might work, 3 years at 45, but remember that millwood was taking a one year contract to “prove” himself last year. Is that the guy i want to make my new franchise player?

    We should be thinking about deals like Kearns/Hancock for Scott Baker. He can be a #2 guy, he’s young and cheap, the twins have 6 starters already, and hancock has been effective in middle relief. They’d get the bat they need, and wouldn’t really miss a beat with pitching, we’d get the arm we need and wouldnt really miss a beat offensively.

    That deal helps the reds a lot more than throwing mountains of cash at millwood.

  5. Brian B.

    No, I wasn’t talking about Clemens money. I was talking about $12 million.

    “adding money per year might work, 3 years at 45” . . . I wasn’t even suggesting that much, Al. I might try 4 years at 48 million.

    I do think a Kearns combo for Scott Baker is a great idea, and the Twins just may listed to that after losing Jacques Jones. But again, I seriously doubt Dan O’Brien thinks like that. He has a Plan A (throw money at a veteran) and a Plan B when Plan A doesn’t work out (dump the money on a warm body), but no creatiity.

  6. Bill

    Eric, I haven’t looked at the numbers, but in this morning’s Enquirer OB says the Reds are looking for ground ball pitchers and gives the ratios for the FA pitchers we’ve talked about. He lists Washburn at 1.05, same as Weaver’s and less than Millwoods (1.28). Morris is listed at 1.49.

    Are these last year’s numbers?

    It also lists Milton’s at .62, too bad OB didn’t learn this stat at this time last year, before he sank $25M into Milton.

  7. Ken

    I’m not sure where the Enquirer got those G/F ratios. On espn.com, Millwood had a 1.34 ratio last year, but 1.01 for his career. Weaver had 1.00 last year, but has a 1.18 for his career. Scary thought on Milton: last year’s ratio (0.68) was actually better than his career average (0.60).

    I’ve always thought Derek Lowe would be a good fit here. He is the prototypical sinkerball SP that induces tons of ground balls (’05: 2.92; career: 3.26!). Even though he was 12-15 last year, he had solid numbers overall: 222 IP, 146 SO, 55 BBs, but 28 HRs (easily a career high). I believe he has three years left on a 4 yr/36 mm contract, so he’s definitely not cheap. But, 1) the Dodgers need OF help after trading Bradley, and 2) this was Depodesta’s signing, and maybe the new GM wants to make his mark. If we’re able and willing to take on the contract (a huge if), we should offer Pena or preferably Kearns. I’m usually reluctant to take on a veteran SP at this price range, but if we want to compete next year something needs to be done.

  8. JdRedsfan

    Or How about Larue or Valentin and Pena for Miguel Batista and Hillenbrand, then Dunn moves back to LF and Hillenbrand plays 1b, Batista would either start or close.

  9. EricM

    ESPN has Washburn at .97, .96, .68, the last 3 years. That’s extreme.

    The median for GB/FB pitchers tends to be around 1.3 or so, if I recall correctly. anything less than 1.3 is considered Fb, for whatever reason.

    Lowe has the good GB rate. But a low K rate meaning he also depends on the defense as well. Ours is bad. Especially in the IF.

    Might be better than Milton but still.

  10. LVW

    Miguel Batista isn’t the answer. He wasn’t very good as a closer(8 losses and 9 blown saves)I’d rather have Weathers as the closer). He’s not a #1 or #2 starter and he’s not an innings eater( no 200 inning seasons in his career). As for Hillenbrand, he never takes a walk(career high 26) and his career isolated slugging is only .003 points higher than Casey.

  11. Ken

    Our IF defense wasn’t great last year, but it will be better. Encarcion was slightly above average and should improve with age. Freel, Aurilia and Womack are all above average at 2B. Lopez is of course the key – he did not have a great year with the glove last year, but should be better, if for no other reason than still being young a year more experienced. His SS fldg% has improved each year here.