Here’s a game thread, as the Reds make their march back to respectability. Just nine games below .500 now, and within 2.5 of third place in the Central!

Hey, we have to have something to keep our interest. Getting back to .500 after it looked like the Reds were going to have a historically bad season … that’s reason to celebrate. A little.

So discuss!

14 Responses

  1. DevilsAdvocate

    Following up on the earlier thread on Ramon Ortiz, here’s an interesting tidbit from the SportsLine game preview:

    [blockquote]The Reds are 11-9 in RHP Ortiz’s starts this season, their best record for any Reds starter.[/blockquote]

    Isn’t that interesting. Not Harang, not Claussen…but Ortiz?!!?

  2. Chad

    Well, if Ortiz had pitched all year like he’s pitched tonight, the Reds would be in fat city, as Marty would say.

  3. Chad

    And that is a fascinating stat. I’m very surprised.

  4. Chad

    Sure, it’s a coincidence. But it’s still fascinating. To me, at least.

  5. Chad

    This team is really beginning to be fun to watch.

  6. DevilsAdvocate

    I love baseball statistics, and performance analysis of the type practiced by Baseball Prospectus, Bill James, The Hardball Times, John Sickels…etc. But sometimes stats can be dangerously blinding. This is one of those times. Ortiz’ performance on a whole has been very bad, but the fact is that so far, the Reds have somehow been able to overcome that more often than not. So it’s been folly to look at “Ortiz” penciled in as the scheduled starter and automatically think that it’ll be a loss.

    With continued performances like tonight’s (2 hits allowed! For the whole game!), this’ll be moot anyway, because…as Marty would say, we may never lose again.

  7. DevilsAdvocate

    I’ve got hope! And that’s scary too, because a cool-off is inevitable. I’m not getting my hopes up too much unless they actually get to .500 .

    However, I will note that Cincinnati is now 1½ games out of third place. Whoa.

  8. Bill

    All that 11-9 record means is he’s gotten tons of run support, I’d imagine.

  9. Chad

    As has every Reds pitcher, Bill. I saw today that the Reds are tied with the Cards for most runs scored in the league.

    That’s impressive, and another data point to suggest that the Reds would be a playoff contender if they just had a couple of good starters.

  10. DevilsAdvocate

    Yep. A team with this kind of run-scoring ability has a chance to win on any given night, no matter how many runs their pitching staff allows. Ortiz has been the biggest beneficiary, no question, but his record serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of baseball.

  11. Jim McCullough

    It indicates that it is a meaningless stat unless someone can find a correlation that connects that person to being the reason his team scores more runs for him.

    Jim Merritt was a 20 game winner iin 1970 because he got tons of run support while a Gary Nolan pitched far more effectively and got little run support.

  12. DevilsAdvocate

    This is what I’m talking about. Actual results are not meaningless unless we’re 1)looking at something only tangentially related, or 2)talking about sustainability. That’s when you look at ERA and FIP and VORP and all the rest, or for hitters, walk rate and IsoP, etc. etc.

    Seeing 11-9 indicates, simply, that Ortiz has not meant an inevitable loss. Which is what we all thought going into this game. Even the initial game thread here tonight was entitled “Rally Killer.”

    This “stat” is meaningless only if we restrict the possible meaning to “what is this pitcher’s performance level.” Step back from that limitation, and it can tell you a little bit about this team and the ways they have won and lost. Hardly any stat is meaningless – they may just mean different things than expected.

    Incidentally, the hated Cardinals (I hate them like the rest of you seem to hate the Cubs) scored 5 times today and the Reds 4, so Cincinnati is back alone in 2nd place again for total runs scored.

  13. Chris W

    I actually looked up Harang’s starts about 2 weeks ago to contradict a statement Marty had said.

    On the radio, Marty stated that Harang’s record would have been way better had he been on a better team.

    At first, I thought the comment was idiotic as obviously this team is the highest scoring team in the NL and Harang’s losses are due to his own poor performances.

    However, after researching it, Harang (at the time) recieved less than 2 runs per start (in his losses)