AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
.225  .448  .324  .772 - Gorman Thomas

.236  .478  .302  .780 - Dave Kingman

.262  .490  .356  .846 - Reggie Jackson

.267  .527  .380  .908 - Mike Schmidt

.249  .523  .384  .907 - Adam Dunn	 

If Adam Dunn had 24 more hits instead of walks he would be batting .260 If he had 39 more hits he’d be batting .268.

39 hits… instead he has a mess of walks which somehow is not worth anything to the “inside baseball” crowd.

Best OPS 25 and under in NL baseball history, 2500 PA’s

OPS                             OPS      PA     
1    Albert Pujols             1.037     2728   
2    Stan Musial                .978     2655   
3    Willie Mays                .966     2627   
4    Mel Ott                    .966     4645   
5    Vladimir Guerrero          .965     3044   
6    Frank Robinson             .946     3792   
7    Dick Allen                 .945     2579   
8    Eddie Mathews              .943     3808   
9    Joe Medwick                .938     3405   
10   Hank Aaron                 .931     3866   

Today Adam Dunn 2514 MLB PAs

.249/.384/.523/.907

.907… right behind Arky Vaughn and right in front Rogers Hornsby at number 11.

Gorman Thomas 776 PA’s to the age of 25.

.193/.280/.355/.635

Dave Kingman 1400 PA’s to the age of 25.

.224/.304/.469/.773

Adam Dunn isn’t Albert Pujoles, and he ain’t Rogers Hornsby either and guess what?

He’ll never will be.

But that doesn’t make him Dave Kingman or Gorman Thomas either.

Brian first met the greatest game in Detroit in 1968, that team played in a league called the “American League”…. but I digress.

Later after a family move he started a dalliance with the Cincinnati Reds, who perchance were in the midst of their greatest era. It was a romance that was greater than many could hope to be.

After barely stomaching the strike of 1981 Brian headed West but never forgot the Reds, and even despite being surrounded by Giants and A’s fans who tried to entice him with things both Green and Orange he found himself wondering what was up with Kal Daniels and was that kid from Moeller ever going to make us forget Davey.

A long time member of SABR and a baseball history junkie he currently lives in Portland and can be followed at @baseballminutia

Join the conversation! 46 Comments

  1. You’re being a little over-quantitative with this comparison considering we’re comparing players from different eras. I’d say either have to adjust “quantities” or stay at a more conceptual level.

    Dunn has what 7 homeruns in AWAY parks this year? and is hitting maybe .220? GABP is fast being known as a top 3 offensive park in baseball. How many more homeruns are in the game of the last 5 years vs. the game of 20-30 years ago? You knock down Dunn a little for those and the gap between Kingman/Gorman and Dunn closes.

    Point remains, all three are Homerun/K guys who hit for relatively low batting averages in their eras. Dunn gets more walks yes, he also strikes out more…….

    Either way Reds can’t afford to pay 10 million for an HR/K guy.

  2. Kingman led league in homers with 37 one year. Four times he was second in league with homerun numbers in mid-30s. Mid 30s then is like mid 40s now. Where is that in your OPS comparisons?

  3. You’re being a little over-quantitative with this comparison

    That’s rich.

    Jackson   	OPS vs league under age 25 + 155
    Schmidt   	OPS vs league under age 25 + 139
    Thomas   	OPS vs league under age 25 -  63 
    Kingman 	OPS vs league under age 25 +  72
    
    Dunn 		OPS vs league under age 25 + 121 
    

    Yeah… I’m wrong.

    BTW if he sucks as bad as Kingman (who sucked I saw it) then who would give him 10 million?

  4. In today’s game 40+ HRs can price tag in the range of 10 million. I don’t like it but that’s just the way it is.

    When you’re the Reds and have a total payroll of ~60 million there’s no way you can afford to pay an HR/K/BB guy like that. On the Reds nothing short of a guy who can be a perennial all star at his position should warrant big $$$. That’s only reason Griff gets the $$$. Dunn has showed no signs of becoming complete and versatile enough to be perennial all star.

    I never said Kingman or Dunn “sucked”. It’s just a matter of where you can afford to put your $$$$.

  5. Dunn has showed no signs of becoming complete and versatile enough to be perennial all star.

    Ummm Ok. Michael THIS is just assinine. I have no idea what you do for a living, but analyzing baseball hitters clearly isn’t your strong suit. He is 25 years old. He is CONSISTENTLY over .900 hitter. Short of Pujols and Cabrera I can’t think of a hitter with more upside. We have given you mountains of data, and you ignore it with snide remarks, and nothing to back up your “facts” but mindless Marty Brennamen sound bites.

  6. Complete and versatile……
    David Ortiz can’t run or field, not worth 10 million.
    Manny Ramirez can’t run or field, not worth 10 million.
    Oh you want a guy to get hits instead of walks.
    So lets have Dunn have the exact same walk rate as Ortiz and convert the diffence to hits.

    Dunn has 19 more walks than Ortiz.
    So that means he gets 19 more ABs and 19 more hits. That gives him 343 ABs and 100 hits. Thats a 292 ba.

    Or how about Manny, thats about 22, for a 292 BA.

    So okay walks aren’t as valuable as hits. But they certainly aren’t worthless. What if half of those walks turned into hits – Dunn be hitting around 270.

    I mean you clearly don’t think that a guy who hits 40 runs is worth 10 million, but I think you need to get over the importance of batting average. A person who hits 300 with a 325 OBP is not worth more than a guy with a BA of 250 and an OBP of 400.

    How much would you pay him? 8 million (Casey’s usless wage)? 6.5 million (Graves’ usless wage)? 2.4 million (D’Angelo’s useless wage)?

  7. I’d like to point out that Dunn is not a free agent this winter, but rather is arbitration-eligible for the third and final time before becoming a free agent after the 2006 season. So what he makes in 2006 will not be affected by the “open market”, but rather decided by an arbitrator based on the facts and cases presented, as well as what similar players have received in their third year of arbitration.

    This is assuming it actually goes to arbitration, which I would say is unlikely. Either Dunn will be traded or the two parties will agree on a contract before it goes that far.

    How about a reader poll on what salary we think Dunn will get in 2006?

  8. I’ve seen same mountains of data you have seen and I’ve watched the same player you watch. We just draw different conclusions about his contributions and potential.

    I see a 25 year old guy with football/rock star mentality playing the grind sport of baseball. Might he prove me wrong and have 15+ year baseball career? sure …maybe…..Might he bore of the baseball grind, get frustrated when pitchers continually adjust to him and be out baseball by 30? yes, maybe….

    You see a 25 year old player and want to project him as improving and improving and peaking in a couple few years. I see an early bloomer, oversized player who will never steal double digit bases again despite getting 100+ BBs each year, grows wider not taller with each year and overall is more likely the best he will ever be right now.

    It’s called difference of opinion Matt. I don’t CARE what you do for a living but civil conversation and/or dealing with opinions different than your own is not YOUR strong suit, nor is OBJECTIVE player appraisal from what I’ve seen.

  9. It’s just Badfundamentals after all eh?

  10. Michael, Dunn has just won 3 games in the last couple of weeks with his bat alone. How can they not afford to keep him? Everyone says that their outfield makes up the difference with the likes of Pena, Kearns and Griffey, but Dunn has BY FAR been the most productive and consistent player out of the bunch and he’s still very young.

    Why wouldn’t you pay him $10M?????

  11. No Matt just doesn’t have patience for people who won’t consider facts, rather than observations they make with their own eyes. Can two people ever see the same thing?

    How has Matt not been objective? He goes to the stats everytime, while you go back to what your eyes tell you. Well your eyes have to be interpreted by your brain thus making your statements subjective.

    Oh and as for Dunn running, who really makes that decision? Dunn? The coaching staff? I mean you really can’t put the entire blame on Dunn for not running.

    “grind sport of baseball” – uhhh, Baseball is a grind compared to football? Dunn growing wider? I think you are taking about Casey and Kearns there.

    Oh and I started that poll you wanted DevilsAdvocate, only its over on Red Reporter.

  12. Just imagine how good Babe Ruth would have been if he could have just stolen a few more bases…. They aren’t paying Dunn to steal bases, why would anyone care if he ever steals a base?

    If it’s not one thing it’s another. Dunn bashers were complaining about his lack of RBI… Well that has changed hasn’t it? Look at his numbers of late, so I guess now we’ll talk about his lack of speed.

  13. For what it’s worth, BP lists Dunn as having the 17th best VORP (value over replacement player) in all of baseball for the current season. This stat addresses Michael’s worry in that it accounts for the generosity of GABP to hitters. In 2004 he was 20th in all of baseball, so his current ranking seems about right. He’s clearly a great batter, regardless of where and when he plays.

    All that said, I think Michael is right to point out that the original use of unadjusted OPS rates to compare Kingman and Dunn was potentially misleading, in that Dunn benefits from playing in this high offense era.

    To account for this, I took a look at BP’s WARP-3 ratings for both players in the early years of their career (WARP-3 = expected wins above replacement player, adjusted for park and era factors):

    Kingman
    Age 22 (1971): 1.3
    23: 4.3
    24: 1.8
    25: 1.4
    26: 4.1
    27: 4.1

    Dunn
    Age 21 (2001): 3.4
    22: 5.4
    23: 3.2
    24: 6.7
    25: 6.3

    Dunn is clearly shaping up to be a much better hitter than Kingman. Kingman had a better age 23, but Dunn beats him handily in other years.

    There’s then the further question of whether the Reds can afford to put so much of their payroll into one player, no matter how good he is. I’m not sure how to go about answering that question.

  14. Pinski, Ramirez is a whole different level of offensive player than Dunn. Manny has the whole package: power, avg, OBP…etc.. I can’t get to his splits at the moment but I feel pretty safe in speculating that his batting avg. with RISP hasn’t been around .210 for his career.

    Top hitters in the game are the likes of Ramirez, Guerrero, Cabrera, Tejada, Rodriguez, Pujols, Sheffield. They hit for both avg. and power. Some of them also get their share of walks but they don’t rely on them to be a huge part of their contribution. Dunn is nowhere near a member of that hitting club.

    Those guys you pay the big $$$. And you might also pay it to your other complete players who play defense, run, hit, winning attitude leadership attributes etc…..etc ….

    But if you’re Cincy Reds you don’t pay big $$$ to an HR/K/BB guy. There are guys who can be plugged into left field and be productive for a fraction of the cost.

  15. Babe Ruth didn’t have to be considered for 2 hole in batting order to get him more ABs because he hit for AVERAGE not just homeruns.

    Dunn could have helped himself to make him a better 2 hole candidate by improving his bat control and keeping baserunning in his game. He has done neither. Batting 6th is where he deserves to be.

  16. Right… after all he’s just Dave Kingman or Gorman Thomas with the walks.

  17. ?? if your “Name 3” was in reference to who else you might pay big dollars to? The “types” of guys I’m talking about would be say a Larkin (when he was in prime). He wouldn’t have been called a top 10 hitter in baseball but he was every bit deserving of superstar $$$ in his prime. Casey last year earned his money. Griffey is producing this year. He’s a future hall of famer. I’d rather pay a little extra to keep Griffey at this stage than over than overpay to keep a one dimensional young player.

    Reds don’t have other everyday players worthy of superstar money right now.

  18. No – There are guys who can be plugged into left field and be productive for a fraction of the cost.

  19. Name 3 other players that produce as well as Dunn at a fraction of the cost.

  20. We live with outfield, strikeout and batting average struggles of Dunn in LF, we could do the same with Pena for less $$$. And Pena’s upside is still a question. We still have Freel who is without an everyday spot. Even Cruz with everyday play could likely hit .270, 25 doubles and give you some clutch hitting. At AAA you have a .320 hitting Denforia, at AA you have a Norris Hopper (??) hitting .340 with 20 stolen bases, who knows who else might hit waiver wires or could be acquired for trade…..

    absolutely no reason to pay big $$$$ to a Dunn.

  21. Do you have evidence that any of those will produce as well as Dunn?

    Pena is pretty clearly a known quanity. Homerun or K.

    Freel has an everday spot, but I guess you would prefer Aurilia. Wow .270 and 25 doubles, I mean thats the same as Dunn. Denforia’s production isn’t even the same at AAA as Dunn.

    I guess I need to understand your definition of production because I really don’t see how any of those players could replace Dunn in the lineup.

  22. None of them could. Michael is obviously just trolling. There is no other logical explanation for this comment. Check this out Michael, scroll to the bottom, Dunn Compares to Reggie Jackson, Daryl Straweberry, Troy Glaus, and Tom Brunansky.

  23. None of whom would be worth 10 million a year in todays era, no siree.

  24. Dunn is currently first among Reds players with RBI per AB at .194 and second in RBI per PA at .159 (Griffey has at .188 and .167 respectively). So it can’t be that his RBI production is a problem. He is one of the top two on the team. If they can’t afford to pay one of the top 2 run producers $10 million, then they can’t afford to pay anyone $10 million.

  25. Also the all or nothing BS about Dunn is also getting annoying.

    He leads the Team in Runs, HRs, Walks, tied for 1st in 3B, 2nd in doubles, 2nd in RBI, first in SLG, 2nd in OBA, 4th in hits. Wily Mo is all or nothing, Dunn is anything but.

  26. Using batting average to bash a player is horse-and-buggy thinking. Any statistic that gives a bloop single the same value as a grand slam home run is obviously flawed.

    Dunn is a patient OBP and OPS machine. I can live with strikeouts, they’re just a side effect of plate discipline. And which would you prefer? A Dunn strikeout or a Casey double play??

    All this Dunn bashing is baseless and getting really, really old.

  27. This is now the sixth most commented-on post ever at Redleg Nation. Keep up the good work.

    Now back to your regularly scheduled Adam Dunn conversation.

  28. My eyes tell me Dunn hits a lot of home runs. Oddly, so do the stats. He’s a heck of a ballplayer, and it would be a shame to trade him.

    Pena? He has a lot of holes in his swing. Just like Reggie Jackson did.

  29. If the Reds would work their tails off trying to lock up Dunn, Kearns, Pena, and eventually Lopez (and maybe Encarnacion one day) to long-term deals, they could then turn their attention to pitching.

    A couple of good starters surrounding that great young nucleaus above would give the Reds a chance to compete every single year.

    Heck, find one really good starter, and surround him with Claussen, Harang, maybe Belisle, maybe Hudson, and whichever of the minor leaguers pan out (Dumatrait?), and this team could be good.

    Yes, they’ve been terrible this season, almost entirely due to the pitching. If the team had any sense, they’d lock up these young guys a la Cleveland a decade ago. That would be a great start….

  30. In other words, there’s no reason to trade any of the young outfielders. They can all contribute to the next good Reds team.

    If Adam Dunn is traded, I’m willing to bet that the next good Reds team will be far in the future.

  31. Yes, they’ve been terrible this season, almost entirely due to the pitching.

    Shooting craps

    http://redlegnation.com/2005/07/22/shooting-craps/

  32. Good call. A roll of the dice, that’s exactly what it is with this staff.

  33. I’ve met a couple whiners in my day but you Matt rank right up there. First you go with insults about “analyzing baseball hitters”, then you go to name calling with “trolling”. Matt just because everyone in the world outside your little support group doesn’t agree with you (or maybe even like you) doesn’t make them wrong. And doesn’t make them “trolls”. Most people in civilized society can exchange thoughts/opinions despite disagreement without resorting to petty insults. Look up the word “tolerance” when you finish your wallpapering of your room with adam dunn photos.

    Pinski, never said any of the suitable replacements would equal Dunn production just said they could be productive. If you could save 5-8 million a with less expensive substitute who brings their own unique contribution with this team’s budget you gotta do it. Dunn is not a “core” guy, he’s a luxury that is now becoming too expensive.

  34. You can’t win just with cheap replacement guys. Gotta have some stars, like Dunn, in there to boost things up. The trick is not to spend $5-6 million on a guy like Aurilia, who just fills a spot in the lineup.

  35. There are guys who can be plugged into left field and be productive for a fraction of the cost.
    I am still truly confused. Can you tell me how to actually objectively define productivity? You don’t seem to have a clear definition. If you can define it then we can look at salaries and objectively define what its truly worth. Then we could objectively determine what Dunn is worth.

    Again, the troll comment is pretty apt. I mean if you don’t know what one is take a read:
    Troll – One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument.
    No one on here can truly understand how you can continually ignore the facts, its like a white blind man saying he is black, whenever one else knows he is white.

  36. Dunn is “not a core guy”??

    Wow. That is one of the most rediculous things I’ve ever read.

    Last year, Adam Dunn scored 100 runs, walked 100 times, and drove in 100. Not to mention 80 extra base hits. Not to mention he’s still scratching the surface of his potential.

    Say what you want about his RBI totals, but last year he WAS the first Red since the 2000 season to accumulate 100 RBI’s…. that’s right, everyone is talking about how our best run producer in years can’t produce runs. It’s asinine.

    And how exactly can you drive in a runner who simply is not there to drive in?? Last time I checked Dunn was second on the Reds only to Ryan Freel in leading off an inning. So, unless we’re counting ghost runners in Cincy, of course he’s going to hit alot of solo homers.

    And…. thanks to his tear of late, Dunn is on pace to drive in 100 runs for the second straight year.

    So, think about that while you talk about Dunn’s lack of production. An OBP near .400, on pace to drive in 100 runs for the second straight year, and on pace for 40+ homers yet again.

    If he’s not a “core” guy, then there is no such thing.

  37. right pinski…….(sigh)
    my intent is to cause maximum disruption.

    Actually my wish, goal, intent would be to see Dunn playing for another team. Reds won’t be able to afford his salary. And his strikeouts, bad fundamentals and cavalier attitude are a bad influence on this team becoming a winner. Let Mr. Stud Rock Star his way to Houston, NY, CA or somewhere else. ESPN highlights WINNING

  38. ESPN highlights does NOT EQUAL Winning

  39. You keep running around the question. Define production.

  40. I’ve been in trial all day (arguing baseball statistics, if you can believe it). But did someone really throw out the name “Norris Hooper” as a plausible replacement for Adam Dunn?

  41. Yes Michael did, and Denforia and Freel, heck he even suggested that Cruz was a suitable replacement. Next he will tell me that Jason Romano could “produce” in LF and be cheap doing it.

  42. BF don’t be such a hater, takes away from a feasable debate.

  43. Wow, Michael just found the entire cause of the Reds woes this year. It’s all due to Dunn’s strikeouts and bad fundamentals. (fundamentals being debatable at best)

    It surely has nothing to due with the Reds pitching staff, which is dead last in the league.

  44. i hate to say it, but this debate hasn’t been “feasable” for a while now.

    We all have decided on our positions…so let’s agree to disagree. One person with a different opinion shouldn’t garner this much attention…especially when the facts speak so strongly against his position.

  45. “Griffey is producing this year. He’s a future hall of famer. I’d rather pay a little extra to keep Griffey at this stage than over than overpay to keep a one dimensional young player. ”
    Griffey is already accounting $12.5 million against the budget, and you think they should pay him more than that? Please explain…

Comments are closed.

About Brian Erts

Brian first met the greatest game in Detroit in 1968, that team played in a league called the "American League".... but I digress. Later after a family move he started a dalliance with the Cincinnati Reds, who perchance were in the midst of their greatest era. It was a romance that was greater than many could hope to be. After barely stomaching the strike of 1981 Brian headed West but never forgot the Reds, and even despite being surrounded by Giants and A's fans who tried to entice him with things both Green and Orange he found himself wondering what was up with Kal Daniels and was that kid from Moeller ever going to make us forget Davey. A long time member of SABR and a baseball history junkie he currently lives in Portland and can be followed at @baseballminutia

Category

Reds - General