I appreciate that Marc Lancaster tried to do some meaningful analysis today, but why would he use incorrect numbers? Did the numbers come from the Reds? Are they tryin to drive down his arbitration value?

Dunn is hitting just .196 with runners in scoring position. Of the 91 men he has found in scoring position, he has driven in only 10 of them (11 percent) – four of those coming on home runs.

Not only does his percentage of men in scoring position batted in pale in comparison to the team total of 21.6 percent, it’s far inferior to the efficiency demonstrated by nearly every other regular.

Sean Casey has driven in 29 of 93 (31.2 percent). Ken Griffey Jr. 26 of 92 (28.3 percent), Felipe Lopez 22 of 82 (26.8 percent), Jason LaRue 14 of 53 (26.4 percent), Rich Aurilia 18 of 73 (24.7 percent) and Joe Randa 22 of 93 (22.6 percent). Only leadoff man Ryan Freel, who has batted in 5 of 43 men in scoring position (11.6 percent) comes close to Dunn’s rate, and RBIs are not expected from him.

In the Article Marc states that Dunn has 11 RBI with RISP. That is wrong according to the stats on Yahoo, and on ESPN. Both sites say Dunn has 18 RBI in 73 plate appearances. The batting average quoted in the article is correct, the number of walks is correct. But the RBI are wrong? ARe the Reds feeding the media bad stats on purpose?

Casey’s numbers are right, WTF, why would they do this?

The end of the article says all of the right things, but it misses the most important point Dunn’s OPS with RISP is the second highest on the team (.912 vs. Griffey .915)

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24 Responses

  1. Brian Erts

    With RISP Dunn is the league leader in pitches seen per plate apperance, secondary average and he has 7.98 RC/27 in that situation

    He has 76 PA’s in those situations and has been IBB 6 times and HBP 3 times. That’s 12% of those PA’s that he had no choice in what to do.

    In the other 65 times he walked 18 more times for 48 PA’s. So in 76 PA’s 32% of the time he had nothing to swing at.

    In 41% of the remaining PA’s he struck out. In the remaining 28 pa’s he has 10 hits, 4 were HR’s and 1 2b. He ended up scoring 30 runs in those 76 PA’s.

    So this year Dunn comes up with RISP and he ends up he scoring 39% of the time.

    I now expect a rebuttle that it’s not his job.

    So in advance I’ll say his job is to not create outs.

    Have a good day.

  2. Steve Bittenbender

    In have many comments on this, but I just want to make sure I’m completely understanding all the Dunn apologists on this board.

    Your strictly basing Dunn’s value on his OPS, correct? Then, by that, you’re saying Dunn is having a better season than:

    Andruw Jones
    Morgan Ensberg
    Mark Texiera
    Cliff Floyd

    All of these players have lowers OPS than Dunn. So, these players are worse than Adam, correct?

  3. Brian Erts

    Your strictly basing Dunn’s value on his OPS, correct?

    Runs Created and ob% for me.

    Jones is having a monster year… FOUR points is not something I call a big OPS spread, I also don’t compare AL hitters to NL hitters straight up myself. Plus I value Dunn’s OB% way more than you do I guess.

    If that makes me an “Apologist” than so be it. Your reliance on RBI’s makes you a “basher” I guess eh?

  4. Joel

    I’m with Brian on this one. I don’t consider myself a Dunn “apologist.” I don’t know what Dunn or I really have to apologize for since it seems to me that he does his job.

    I base my opinion on stats like Runs Created and Win Shares, both of which take much more into account that just plain OPS and both of which still show that Adam Dunn is a pretty damn good hitter.

  5. Matt

    I prefer RC, too. If they are just a couple of points different than no I wouldn’t make a blanket statement like that.

    I am not a Dunn apologist. I am a good hitter apologist, and RBI and BAtting average are nearly usesless stats that get used incorrectly, and I get tired of them.

    Using BA and RBI to compare the guys you mentioned is impossible. They all are on different teams, and the other guys get the advantage of battin 3rd or 4th in the lineup, which Dunn doesn’t.

    I’d say that I’d rather have Jones this year simply becuase of his defense in CF. From a hitting perspective they are just about dead even. .006 in OPS isn’t very much.

    Dunn is outhitting Morgan Ensberg, but again they are pretty close. Doesn’t ensburg play 3rd?

    Cliff Floyd is a good comparison since they both play LF. Dunn is absolutely outhitting Cliff Floyd. PUt Dunn in Cliff spot in the Mets order (shudder) and Dunn would have more RS and more RBI than Floyd.

  6. Greg

    Has anyone contacted Marc Lancaster about this and what is his response?

  7. Matt

    yeah, I sent him an email. I will let you know if I hear anything.

  8. CG Hudson

    I don’t know why Lancaster is cut so much slack in the Reds blogsphere as this just seems like more of the usual crap that the Postquirer Daily News troika spits out. (John Fay’s recent dabblings with performance-based analysis being the only exception)

  9. Pinski

    It looks like a simple mistake. Dunn has a total of 10 hits. Somehow that column seems to have been exchanged with RBIs.
    Now who did what and how is a different story.

  10. Michael

    You know what’s laughable is when people dismiss RBIs as “team dependent”.

    People want to point to Dunn’s Runs and say what a great run scorer he is but then dismiss low RBIs as “team dependent”. They go hand in hand. He scores Runs because OTHERS drive him in. Others on team don’t score as many because Dunn leaves them on base.

    Not to mention it’s all TEAM DEPENDENT. Why does Dunn get so many walks? Part of the reason is because the hitters on TEAM after him are the worst ones on TEAM.

    If you want to dismiss RBIs then dismiss Runs and BBs too.

    Dunn’s OPS and RC are BOTH inflated because of his soft walks. Playing just to “avoid outs” is the equivalent of playing not to lose – not a winning attitude/approach.

  11. Brian Erts

    Dunn’s OPS and RC are BOTH inflated because of his soft walks. Playing just to “avoid outs” is the equivalent of playing not to lose – not a winning attitude/approach.

    So was Joe Morgans.

    Attitude?

    Conjecture has no place in this debate IMO.

  12. Mike

    I think it’s valid to point out that Dunn has missed a lot of opportunities to drive in more runs. He is the best slugger on this team, so it’s only right to expect him to deliver more with the bat in these situations. However, that is a major error (10 vs. 18) when the entire article is based on the rate at which he’s knocking these runners in.

    While his OPS may be high, that’s not necessarily what we should look at when talking about how he hasn’t delivered in this situation. Dunn is patient and therefore walks a lot which is awesome, but with that he should be seeing better pitches (strikes) when he’s getting out, but he’s only delivering 1 out of 5 times in this situation. RISP: .196/.461/.451 His OPS is .265 in BB alone. That does translate into runs, so while I won’t complain about the walks it’s still valid to point out that he hasn’t hit well with runners in scoring position. This is an area where I believe it makes more sense to take a hard look at batting average, but at the same time weighing that with OBP.

    Oddly, he seems to hit a lot better with runners on 1st only. He is crushing the ball in this situation.

    Runners on 1st only:
    .333/.490/.717 12BB, 12K, 4HR, 8R, 9RBI

    You don’t see a lot of RBI in this situation, but he is creating runs, something that RC takes into consideration that simple RBI or RBI% does not.

  13. Michael

    Yes, but you walk Joe Morgan and he’ll make you pay when he waves to you from second base. You walk Dunn and you just start over with next hitter(s) who will be relatively inferior hitters – you bend a little – still good chance of getting out of inning especially if already one or two outs.

  14. Pinski

    Michael, that wouldn’t be the case if you batted him 2, 3, 4 or even 5th. Instead you want him to bat 6 or 7. Thats not useful at all.

  15. Chris

    Runs and RBI are both essentially worthless. Walks are not.

    “Playing not to make outs” is the best strategy you can have. Trying to make it into some referendum about attitude or character is childish machismo.

  16. Chris

    Here’s the thing: Everyone wants to look at these situations like the goal is to score ONE run. It’s not, except in rare late-inning situations. The goal is to score SEVERAL runs.

    I don’t entirely disagree with Mike’s point that in RISP situations, BA is somewhat more telling a stat than normal, and OBP is somewhat less illuminating than normal, I think that point is much less valid when we consider that it’s better to have 2 men on than to have 1 man on. In other words, walking with a man on 3rd is NOT a failure – the team is more likely to score more runs with men on 1st and 3rd than they are with only a runner on 3rd.

  17. Mike Crouse

    I would agree with that Chris, there is definitely value in getting the walk even with RISP, which is why I think you have to take OBP into consideration, you can’t look at BA alone. However, that doesn’t negate the fact that Dunn is only hitting .196 when he doesn’t walk. He’s scoring runs with walks, but when he’s not walking, he’s not hitting well and that’s why I think it’s more important to look at AVG and OBP rather than look at Dunn’s OPS number in this situation.

  18. Shawn

    Runs are not worthless. Runs are the point. And batting mostly from the #6 spot, Dunn leads the team in runs scored.

  19. Michael

    update after 0 for 2 last night,
    .188 with RISP that is horrid – you can’t spin that with walks, spot in order or anything else.

    It’s his 5th year in the bigs and fifth year in a row where his rbi/RISP hitting is well below is already low batting average.

    This is not a good hitter. This is a big swing. Or in the words of Hrabosky last night, “all or nothing dunn”.

  20. Steve Bittenbender

    I believe that if you bat Dunn third, the only thing that would be around .300 would be the Reds’ winning percentage. As the Big Hungarian said, Dunn is an “all or nothing” hitter, and until he proves otherwise, he should stay where he is in the lineup.

    Batting third, Dunn’s walks would be curtailed severely (no one in their right mind would pitch around him to get to Griffey), but I don’t think that instantly translates into more hits for him. He could hit into more DPs than Casey.

    But, you know what? This season is lost already anyway, I’d love to see them move Dunn up in the order just to prove you guys wrong. If Dunn proves me wrong, I’ll publicly admit as much on here.

  21. Steve Bittenbender

    My apologies, meant to say Mad Hungarian.

  22. Greg

    http://www.forecaster.ca/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?2637

    Dunn hit .300 in the minors. He also used to reach double-digit steals, including the first couple of seasons in the majors. This guy is a good athlete, and I think is hampered by having poor hitters behind him, leading to terrible pitches to swing at. He is told to “make more contact” “swing more” yet they are giving him nothing but junk to hit. Bat him third, let him see better pitches, and let’s see what he can do.

    And since he bats near the bottom of the order, why doesn’t he run more? He is still only 25.

  23. Michael

    Dunn is 25 but with his body type he’s over 30 already effectively.Don’t hold your breath waiting for anymore double digit steals seasons.

    Heck, I was a senior in high school tearing up conference pitching 😆 and I remember coming to the realization that when you play games every day this stealing bases thing is for the birds ! ! The extra effort it takes to get a good lead (both mental/physical) should not be dismissed. And the extra effort to turn it up to high gear and slide……

    Unfortunately, Dunn’s “good speed for big guy” was nice for the scouts but is a thing of the past……