After my post last week, about the Reds being in the top 5 in offense I have taken a few shots. I didn’t do any deep analysis, I just looked at RS and OPS for the National League. But sine then it seems like most games they haven’t been scoring. I looked at the Stats on ESPN and I see they are still ranked 2nd in Runs scored. So what is the problem? WELL I decided to look alittle deeper.

In 30 Road games this year they have scored 120 runs for a nifty 4 runs per game. That puts them ahead of the sucky offense of the Astros and Rockies, and no one else. 4 Runs a game with the pitching staff won’t get it done.

By contrast at home they average 5.75 runs per game which places them third behind the Rockies and Phillies. What do they Rockies and Phillies ballparks have in common with GABP? umm….I think they all might be hitters parks, but I ain’t sure.

So which hitters benifit most from GABP?

Player Home Road
Griffey .933 .688
Casey .765 .831
Dunn .981 .908
Lopez .967 .770
Randa .900 .790
Freel .879 .717
LaRue .735 .696
Pena 1.083 .757

These Road number are based on 30 games, and the home numbers 40 games, but it might be time to re-evaluate just how good of a season Lopez is having, or Griffey or Randa, or dare I say Dunn?

Join the conversation! 26 Comments

  1. PARK FACTORS!!!

    ESPN has a wonderful page that tracks park factors – based on individual types of statistics. Great American Ball Park registers as the tenth-ranked runscoring park thus far this year, though perhaps showing the influence of the recent Tampa Bay/Baltimore homestand.

    2005 GABP’s influences as of 6/21/05, as compared to the overall average ballpark, and ranking within MLB:
    Runs +10% (10th of 30)
    HR +37% (7th of 30)
    H +3% (12th of 30)
    2B +18% (6th of 30)
    3B -50% (28th of 30)
    BB -12% (27th of 30)

    I guess this indicates that you can discount some of the raw power numbers that the Reds are displaying, but the batting averages are honest, and if anything the on-base averages are being hurt by home games in Cincinnati. As a side note, given that HRs and 2Bs are much higher but hits are about even overall, it follows that singles are more difficult to hit in Great American.

    I hadn’t looked at this stuff in a while, but earlier this year (and in the past two years), Great American had a negative influence on run-scoring, with fewer hits and walks but more homeruns.

  2. I hope he bats Dunn either 2nd or puts him on the pine.

    If Dunn can succeed in 2 hole (still get his walks) then I think he still has some upside. A couple years of batting in 2 hole may be just what he needs. He “might” learn to do the things he needs to do to be deserving of an rbi slot in order. If not, he’s destined for 6/7 hole slots for a few more years then out of baseball by 30.

  3. Bringing up the point of how good a season a dunn is having…I was realizing this earlier.

    Lopez, Griffey, Randa are all comparable or better in all offensive categories with Dunn except for HRs and Dunn’s soft 6 hole walks (which reds could do without). Then when you look just slightly under the surface of his HRs you find that Dunn has 10 solos vs. the other guys only 4 or 5 solos. I’m “rounding” a little here admittedly but this breaks down to ~6 solo homeruns being the difference between Dunn’s power and guys like Griff, Lopez and Randa. Is 6 solo HRs enough of a benefit to justify the Dunns of the world with all their strikeouts, horrid situational/RISP hitting, defensive struggles, lack of versatility etc…??

    I never saw the kind of production from Lopez this year that he is putting up but I’d swap out a Dunn for another Lopez, Griff or Randa any day of the week.

    I think this is another example of how OPS is NOT a good metric at player level. For further proof see the comparable OPS numbers of Dunn and Pujols then look at the stats which underly their OPS. Shocking.

  4. Dunn’s soft 6 hole walks (which reds could do without).

    Yeah, the six hole….. BTW Dunn has 81% of his ab’s in the 5th hole.

    The Reds lead all of the NL in OB%, slg%, OPs, HR’s TB, Runs and walks from the 5th slot.

    “soft” walks aside… Dunn is crushing the ball.

  5. Anyone who would trade Adam Dunn for Joe Randa is . . .

  6. I like stats as much as the next guy but sometimes you have to trust your instincts common sense.

    If you watch games you can see the guys who more often than not do the things which translate to winning. Hitting a mammoth homer every 3 games and taking a walk are nice but not for the price.

  7. If you watch games you can see the guys who more often than not do the things which translate to winning.
    I myself watch easily 30 -40 hours of baseball a week.

    I think I can discern what’s going on.. even without stats to back up my opinion.

    And when I look at the stats they do just that.

  8. yeah, fair enough…..
    different people have different ideas about what leads to WINNING baseball teams…

    I feel a little bad for Miley – he didn’t get a great hand. But he didn’t play it all that well either from what I saw.

  9. Dunn – Out of baseball by 30? You’ve got to be kidding me? You are right, with his BB he should be batting higher in the order. Rather than 2nd, he should be batting third because of his homerun power. Batting in front of Griffey he will either (1) see better pitches or (2) get on base and allow junior a chance to knock him in.

    I think several here have already pointed out that Dunn has so many solo homers because outside of the leadoff slot, the #5 hole leads off an inning more than any other spot in the lineup. I think stat-heads and non stat-heads would both agree that it is REALLY hard to drive in runs when you are leading off an inning.
    Percent of PA’s batting leadoff for the 4 players mentioned:
    Dunn: 26%
    Griffey: 23% (and since Dunn usually bats behind Griffey, if Griffey makes an out or hits a solo HR, Dunn is batting 2nd with the bases empty.)
    Randa: 21%
    Lopez: 20%

    Another question is how can you compare Dunn’s solo shots to Randa’s or Lopez’s solo shots? Dunn as many solo shots (10) as Randa has homeruns (10) and almost as many as Lopez (12)!

  10. Dunn hits a HR every 15.7 PA (282/18.) When batting with the bases empty, Dunn hits a HR every 15.9 PA (159/10.) So far this year, he has hit HR’s a little more frequently with runners on than with runners not on base.

  11. Back to the stat on singles being hard to get at GABP… Do you think we need to factor in that a Reds pitcher is on the mound half of the time? (I’m assuming those stats were comparing all teams). That will decrease the singles and increase the HRs at a great rate on its own. With that said, it certainly favors the left handed power hitter, or anyone that goes to right field for that matter. Look at Pujols HR the other night; that was an out in most ball parks.

  12. Wow, think their road OPS is a bit more indicative of the 6-24 record?

  13. What really bothered me watching the game on ESPN last night (Cards-Reds) was that the announcers continued to praise the Reds offense with their rankings in RS, SLG, etc. They obviously haven’t taken a long hard look into those numbers. I’ll get off my soap box about the lack of consistent runs, because it’s a waste of time with this pitching staff.

    For the first time I’m actually starting to feel like we deserve more. I’m tired of the losing, the unfulfilled promises and expectations, I think it’s all getting to me at a point when they’ve lost 109 of their last 182 games…. It has been absolutely brutal from the time that this team was 30-20 last year. I guess the eternal optimist in me has given up on a NY Knights type run.

  14. Greg, Dunn not driving in runs has to do with Dunn not his spot in order. Check out the Baseball Prospectus rbi conversion chart. He has PLENTY of opportunities but he has been pretty much worst in baseball at converting them the last 5 years. His feast/famine approach doesn’t lend itself to just taking the pitch he gets and driving in the run. With Dunn he wants to jack it or take the walk.

    The point about solos was yes directed at Dunn but you see it with other big HR guys as well. Randa, Griff, Lopez all have about the same number of non-solo homers as Dunn. The extra half dozen that Dunn HRs Dunn has are solos. What is the one type of HR a pitcher doesn’t like giving up but won’t beat himself up for it? A solo.

    So the point is I’d rather have the guys in order who project more to the 25-30 HR range than a guy who you hope to get 40+ from because the difference is likely to be solos anyway……….

    10-15 solos isn’t worth the cost of 195 strikeouts, umpteen stranded runners, bad leadership…etc..etc….Trade the Donkey if anyone will take him.

  15. Of course if you can get the 40+ HRs and not have to suffer thru all the strikeouts, the low batting average etc….well then sure you’ll take that because then you have a legitimate big time hitter – Pujols, Guerrero, Ramirez, Sheffield come to mind off top of head. What you have in Dunn is a poor man’s power hitter. He might hit you the 40 but its not worth the cost.

  16. Michael,

    You are absolutely insane. Dunn is the one of the best hitters in the league right now. Just because he doesn’t do well in the stats YOU think he should does not make your assertions facts. Plenty of people have PROVEN here that his spot in the order has more to do with his RBI than his ability. Plenty of people have PROVEN that not making outs is more important than a sac fly or a bunt sacrifice or some other 1970’s crap that you think we should be doing. Stop being a troll.

    I suggest you do some research before you just spout off with no evidence.

  17. We talked about Dunn and RBI’s in early June.

    http://tinyurl.com/9arzk

  18. ha ha :grin:…..clearing the way for a Rich Aurilia “professional at bat”

  19. Matt, the rbi conversion chart is straight stat/facts….. A .1 conversion rate ain’t too hot. And it’s not hard to conclude the “why” of that.

    Again, he looks to jack everything. Pitchers don’t give him stuff to easily jack with men in scoring position.

    I’ve done plenty of research both stat-wise AND observational.

  20. until you find a way to watch every baseball game everyday and remember every detail, you will need to look at stats to evaluate. Your eyes and memory will decieve you.

    As Far as RBI conversion. What proof is there that that is even a useful stat? Haven’t you seen the studies that show scoring one run and giving up an out is more harmful than walking and not scoring an initial run?

    Last night is a great example. With 1st and 3rd Adam Dunn was given SHIT to swing at, and he didn’t, taking the walk. Which was followed up by a bases clearing hit. Dunn FAILED in the eyes of the RBI conversion stat, but for winning baseball games (ie scoring runs) he SUCCEEDED. Your stat maybe fact, just mostly useless taken out of context.

    He should bat third for the maximum benefit to this team.

  21. Last night is a great example. With 1st and 3rd Adam Dunn was given SHIT to swing at, and he didn’t, taking the walk

    In Dunns first 2 ab’s he saw exactly 10 pitches. 8 balls and 2 strikes.

    That’s like a Salad Buffet at Shakeys, Slim Pickings.

    Pretty hard to drive the ball for a single or better if they don’t throw it over the plate.

  22. agree, rbi conversion rate is just one thing to look at – I’m not saying holy grail. And not saying it is perfect. 😯

    But combined with 5 years straight of RISP batting avg. ~40 points below his already low batting avg. well you start to get recurring theme. Tough to blame “spot” in batting order for everything……

  23. But we don’t knwo the WHY. Is it because he “can’t” do it? Or is it because the coaches are telling him to get more aggressive at the plate with runners on base, yet the pitchers are giving him less-to-nothing to hit with runners on base…so he is swinging at more bad pitches instead of using his normal, patient approach. He wouldn’t get as much junk to swing at if he was batting 3rd and Griffey was batting behind him. Why do you think Griffey is getting the better pitches right now? Because they don’t want to face Dunn.

  24. One of two things would happen if you move him to 2nd or 3rd, either he would get challenged more and he’d produce more OR he’d get challenged more leading to less BBs and he wouldn’t rise up to challenge. His numbers would stay same or fall.

    It would be interesting to see what would happen but if Dunn is looking for someone to blame for less attractive batting order spot he should look in mirror. If he’d have made a few adjustments in the past few years to raise batting avg. a little, become better 2 strike hitter etc.. etc….even old school managers wouldn’t have been able to keep him out of the 2/3/4 holes.

  25. It would be interesting to see what would happen but if Dunn is looking for someone to blame for less attractive batting order spot he should look in mirror. If he’d have made a few adjustments in the past few years to raise batting avg. a little, become better 2 strike hitter etc.. etc….even old school managers wouldn’t have been able to keep him out of the 2/3/4 holes.

    Dunn isn’t bitching, we are. Old School managers are dumb. They really don’t get it most of the time. That “appeal to authority” argument isn’t going to fly. You want the best hitter on the team to “make adjustments” so that he hits like Casey?

    Just like Mantle once said, if he hit like Rose he would wear a dress.

  26. Yeah, Dunn’s only gripe is when he’s benched a game for Jason Romano or Jacob Cruz. THAT’s the only spot in the order he doesn’t like. We armchair managers are the disgruntled ones.

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