This is my first post on the Redleg Nation, I hope you enjoy….
I saw a familiar stat in the Enquirer today. Its a stat that has been repeated over and over and over all year. So much that even I started believing it without ACTUALLY looking at the facts. I had assumed that the poeple that keep spitting out this ridiculous stat actually had some facts behind it. NOPE.
From the Enqy:
1020, Plate appearances since Dunn last hit a sacrifice fly. He hasn’t hit one since.
OK, why does this matter, and how many times in that 1020 ABS has he had a CHANCE to hit a Sacrafice fly? First let’s see the number of chances.
In 2005 he has had 259 plate appearances, and 12!!!!!! with a man on 3rd and <2 outs. In those 12 plate appearances he has 5 walks, and no hits 2 RBIs. Which gives him a .462 OBA. .000 SLG. Certainly that isn’t great, but the sample size is a bit small, don’t you think?
in 2004 in 678 plate appearances, he had a grand total of 43 with a man on 3rd and <2 outs. In those 43 plate appearances he had 9 walks, 3 singls, 4 doubles, 3 homers, 23 RBI. .386/.588/.975 Would you like him to take some off those homers so that he can get a sac fly and only score one run instead of two?
in 2003 in 455 plate appearances he had a whopping 21 plate appearances with a man on 3rd with <2 outs. IN those 21 plate appearances he had 6 walks, 2 singles, 2 homers, 15 RBI (he had two grand slams this year) .400/.667/.1067
So in 1392 plate appearances where he only has one sac fly he only has 76 plate appearances with a man on 3rd with <2 outs. In those 76 Plate appearances, Dunn makes an out 42 times. 45% of the time when Dunn comes up in this situation he extends the inning for his team, INCLUDING, 40 RBI, 5 singles, 4 doubles, 5 homers. Would you rather those homers be sac flies?
When you play for one run, you get one run, when you have Adam Dunn you get more than one run, just look at his Runs Scored and his RBI, DESPITE his .243 bating average.
BTW, this research took about 5 minutes…I found it at the secret site www.yahoo.com