I’ve tried to lay off the Reds beat writers, I really have. But John Fay’s recent notebook contains some real silliness:

Bergolla, a 22-year-old from Venezuela, did just what earned him a reputation as one of the Reds’ better young hitters. He went with the 98 mph fastball – and grounded it through the hole at second.

Bergolla has a .289 lifetime average in the minors and strikes out only about once every eight at-bats.

So a .289 minor league BA makes you “one of the better young hitters”?? Oh, I forgot the all important strikeout rate. Anyway, I looked at some numbers that actually matter, and found that unfortunately, Bergolla hasn’t really hit at the minor league level, and isn’t likely to hit in the bigs. (Just another Pokey, Gookie, or Olmedo, as far as I can tell). It’s his speed (143 SB in 443 games) that’s gotten him attention and promotion.

His OPS over the last three years:
2002 at Billings 856 (this was his third professional season, though at age 19)
2003 at Dayton 627
2004 at Potomac 651
2004 at Chatt 711

That’s better than Juan Castro, but it isn’t “top hitting prospect” stuff, is it?

Join the conversation! 4 Comments

  1. Remember – this was an organization that thought extremely high of Stephen Smitherman…..

    I think Bergolla will be a serviceable 2b in the big leagues.

  2. While I agree that Fayman misues batting average here, I think Bergolla is indeed a decent prospect. Beyond his OBP look at his age.

    I would like to see a higher walk rate, but he is still very young, and a .347 OBP by age 21 in the minors isn’t awful. He won’t be the next Jeff Kent, but I think comparing him to Pokey is unfair.

    Gookie is a better argument, but I think gookie can still be serviceable, same with Olmedo. He is still only 23.
    by age 21, Pokey’s OBP were .312, .317, .267, .333 (turned out to be his highest EVER)

  3. I find Fay drier than a desert day in August, Bergolla is still young and does have some upside. But the mangling of the data to fit in an article is mostly designed to feed people reading whilst they eat their Goetta and eggs.

    The masses want their batting average.. let em have it.. but give them some other things to chew on as well.

  4. I know John Fay and argue with him every now and again via email concerning his Reds coverage.

    I think part of their job is to educate the public, isn’t that what journalism is supposed to be? Inform and educate?

    By staying “old school”…perspectives will never change. But don’t look for it from these guys. The closest to a “stats guy” locally is Chris Welsh.

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Category

2005 Reds, Minors, Reds - General