04/29/2005

Deja Vu

Well Chris brought us a 21 game progress report for some of the players, 13% of the season is gone. Time to kick the teams tires too.

These things we know.

The bullpen is a bigger mess than the bathroom in your first apartment, Milton is racking up frequent flyer miles that likely redeem only at Eastern Airline affiliates and once again there are 4 players for the 3 outfield positions.

In honor of the yearly outfielder dilema I will list the last few years to keep you up to date.

They have been in order by the years for those of you counting.

2002 - Encarnacion, Dunn, Griffey, Kearns
2003 - Guillen, Dunn, Griffey, Kearns
2004 - Pena, Dunn, Griffey, Kearns

Just for kicks 1997’s outfielders

GAMES                            G     
1    Deion Sanders               113   
2    Reggie Sanders               85   
3    Curtis Goodwin               71   
4    Jon Nunnally                 60   
5    Mike Kelly                   59   
6    Lenny Harris                 42   
7    Willie Greene                39   
8    Chris Stynes                 38   
9    Ruben Sierra                 24   
10   Eric Owens                   18   

Ughhhhhh… I remember ranting on my Netscape Browser 1.6 about that sad state of affairs. That outfield went the way of Cox Medias internet sport site fastball.com, either they faded into obscurity or they were bought up by other fools who over valued their skills and contributions.

So, here we are, 13% of the season gone… and yet it seems so familiar, like the background in a Yogi Bear cartoon, trees, rock, bush, tree, bush, tree, rock, etc.

If I had ever been here before

I would probably know just what to do

Don’t you?

Off days are either good days to forget about baseball and do something else, I used to watch Hockey during these early off days, but they took that away from me too… so I just decided today that I should really look at the team stats from the first month.

From there I decided to look at last years April and see if there was anything to pick at.

Pretty similar stuff; even with the new deckhands and usual slow starts.

It’s as though last April was cloned and just thrown out again this April, just with a larger payroll, and from the vitriol that I’ve seen around the net much larger expectations.

Some Similarities:

Both last April and this April had hitters with OPS’s over 1.100, Dunn of course is in both groups, last year it was Casey and his OB heavy OPS, this year it’s Pena and his SLG driven OPS.

The second tier of hitters is better this year than last years with Freel, Lopez and Randa all having OPS’s above .880. The offense this season has been spread around more that’s for sure and currently it looks a bit thinner because of it. Four players are poised to join Dunn and Randa in double digits in runs scored, however last year at this time there were five players with twelve or more runs scored.

Another oddity is that after a combined 168 ab’s Griffey and Casey have as many runs scored as Joe Randa. If you told me prior to the season that that is what would happen I would have most likely thought you daft.

2004’s team at this time walked more and this years team is walking considerably less and succeeding more, this is seen in the increase in batting average and that in turn has enhanced the teams slugging percentage. The drop in OB% from last April still places them above last years .331. Perhaps they can get above .340 for the first time since 2000.

Since the hits are falling more this season (so far) you’ll see that the hits are distributed a bit more this season than last, with 10 players having double digit hit numbers to last years 8.

Casey is once again the team hit leader with 22, last April’s 36 looks really good in comparison eh? Last year at this point Casey had 15 Extra Base Hits; currently he has only 3 doubles.

Dunn’s walk rate is half of what it was last year and believe it or not he was a .328 hitter last year after 22 games. His current OB% is closer to his targeted one than last years gaudy .538. He also has 5 more extra base hits than last year at this point.

Joe Randa leads the team in runs scored with 14, yes Joe Randa leads the team in runs scored last year at this time the Reds had 3 players with 14 runs scored. Randa who has scored over 80 runs three times in his career is on pace for 113 runs scored

Last year the Reds as a team walked an incredible amount in April 1 every 6.8 ab’s they finished the season at 1 every 9.2 ab, this year they are averaging 1 every 8.1. The April rate last year was fueled by Dunn’s 28 and Jimenez’s 17, with 2 other players with 10. This year Dunn and Joe Randa lead the team in walks with 14.

Currently the Reds are scoring 1/2 a run less than the 2004 team.

Think it’s the walks?

2005
NAME		G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sean Casey	21	79	9	22	3	0	0	5	6	.278	.322	.316	.638
K. Griffey Jr.	20	73	5	18	7	0	0	7	9	.247	.325	.342	.668
Joe Randa	20	72	14	20	4	0	4	14	14	.278	.402	.500	.902
D. Jimenez	20	64	9	14	2	0	0	3	9	.219	.315	.250	.565
Adam Dunn	20	64	12	20	9	1	6	15	14	.313	.450	.766	1.216
Rich Aurilia	15	59	8	13	4	0	2	8	3	.220	.258	.390	.648
Austin Kearns	17	57	9	13	2	0	2	8	8	.228	.328	.368	.697
Jason LaRue	17	51	2	11	2	0	0	4	9	.216	.375	.255	.630
Wily Mo Pena	17	43	9	14	6	0	5	11	2	.326	.370	.814	1.184
Ryan Freel	15	40	7	15	5	0	0	1	7	.375	.468	.500	.968
Felipe Lopez	9	26	3	7	1	0	2	6	3	.269	.345	.538	.883
J. Valentin	5	16	4	5	2	0	0	2	0	.313	.313	.438	.750
Jacob Cruz	14	13	1	4	1	0	0	2	1	.308	.357	.385	.742			
Team Total		695	93	179	48	1	21	88	85	.258	.344	.420	.764

Strikeouts 174
RECORD 10-11
Reds have scored 5 runs 10 times
Reds Pitchers have given up 5 runs 12 times. More than 10 runs 2 times

2004
NAME		G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sean Casey	22	87	16	36	11	1	3	18	7	.414	.458	.667	1.125
D. Jimenez	22	85	13	20	4	0	2	11	17	.235	.365	.353	.718
K. Griffey Jr.	20	81	12	18	6	0	3	13	10	.222	.315	.407	.723
Barry Larkin	20	77	14	21	5	0	0	5	6	.273	.325	.338	.663
Ryan Freel	20	67	7	17	3	2	1	5	2	.254	.296	.403	.699
Adam Dunn	22	64	17	21	3	0	8	18	28	.328	.538	.750	1.288
Jason LaRue	16	57	7	12	4	0	1	10	5	.211	.292	.333	.626
Austin Kearns	17	51	7	7	2	1	2	5	10	.137	.290	.333	.624
Juan Castro	18	39	6	10	2	1	0	4	2	.256	.293	.359	.652
Wily Mo Pena	14	28	3	8	1	1	1	4	3	.286	.375	.500	.875
J. Valentin	14	16	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	.063	.167	.063	.229
Corky Miller	4	11	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	.000	.313	.000	.313
Paul Wilson	5	10	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	.200	.273	.300	.573
B. Larson	4	10	1	3	0	0	0	1	3	.300	.462	.300	.762		
Team Total		725	107	181	43	6	21	97	106	.250	.353	.412	.766

Strikeouts 167
RECORD 12-10
Reds scored 5 runs 11 times
Reds Pitchers gave up 5 runs 10 times. More than 10 runs 3 times

PITCHING 2005 - 2004
 	W	L	Sv	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	K/9	P/GS	WHIP	ERA
Reds 	10	11	8	181.1	205	104	33	62	126	6.25	85.3	1.47	5.16
 	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005    714	109	205	39	8	33	359	106	62	.287	.351	.503	.854  

2004	W	L	Sv	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	K/9	P/GS	WHIP	ERA
	12	10	10	191.0	221	105	31	61	130	6.13	82.2	1.48	4.95
	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	760	113	221	45	9	31	377	109	61	.291	.348	.496	.844

Once again the pitching is in shambles, 1.13 hits an inning, whip the same HR’s the same, K Rate the same, OPS allowed the same.

Cookie Cutter Reds season so far, pure .500 ball, some offensive games from batters as well as pitchers.

The Reds are like that photograph of a guy holding a photo of a guy holding photo of a guy holding a photo.

Winding its way into infinity.

Brian first met the greatest game in Detroit in 1968, that team played in a league called the “American League”…. but I digress.

Later after a family move he started a dalliance with the Cincinnati Reds, who perchance were in the midst of their greatest era. It was a romance that was greater than many could hope to be.

After barely stomaching the strike of 1981 Brian headed West but never forgot the Reds, and even despite being surrounded by Giants and A’s fans who tried to entice him with things both Green and Orange he found himself wondering what was up with Kal Daniels and was that kid from Moeller ever going to make us forget Davey.

A long time member of SABR and a baseball history junkie he currently lives in Portland and can be followed at @baseballminutia

Join the conversation! 5 Comments

  1. I think you just blew my mind. 😯

  2. Applause all around – great work – Brian.

    I’m still intrigied by an April not so long ago – with some of the same story lines – aging power hitter not getting “powered-up” , too many outfielders, wacked-out bullpen with old guys or rookies, slow starts, starting pitching had some holes.

    While the outcome of that year wasn’t a happy ending – it sure was fun

    The year? The abberation that was 1999.

    I just tried to find some Reds stats from April of 1999. The Elias Sports Bureau receptionist is still laughing.

    Brian – since you seem to be emperor of all things stats – see what the April of 1999 Reds – stack up against our April 2005 edition of Redlegs. That would be interesting reading – thanks for your work!

  3. So once again, I’ll ask the age old question… In the words of Marty Brennaman, “How many outfielders *DO* a team need?” -B

  4. Too bad Bernard Gilkey isn’t a Brewer. Nuxie’s back in the booth – look out for the fly balls hit to left-right field.

    (I miss it, don’t you?)

    Go Redlegs!

  5. Here’s that 1999 April, that’s funny that you tried to call Elias, they are traditionally the hardest case when it comes to the data, have been for years.

    You can get these stats by going to Yahoo and looking at the team stats, if you link to (say 2001) on splits for a
    One note about the 1999 team, after 21 games they did have ONE more run scored than allowed, something neither of these last 2 teams can claim. And the staff had allowed less than 100 runs (in one of the biggest hitting years ever)

    The Runs allowed in April of 1999 accounted for 13.5% of the runs allowed by the Reds that year. The runs scored 11.8%

    Last years team scored 15% of the teams runs that season in April and the pitching gave up 12.45% of the runs in April.

    The 1999 team started out with a slow offense and the pitching was not good, they reversed that by the end of the year. In comparison last years team had an offense playing way over it’s head (and brought down by the mean and injuries) and pitching doing mediocre as well, however the both got worse as the season progressed.

    I see more offense than last year but only if *some* of the Reds learn to take a walk and *others* have some hits drop with RISP, but I don’t see the pitching improving too much beyond its current state.

            G    W    L   RS   RA      
    APR     21    9   12   97   96   
    
    
    casey 		- .372 	.419 	.615 	1.034 	 
    Young 		- .200 	.250 	.236 	.486
    Taubensee	- .260 	.333 	.500 	.833
    Larkin		- .200 	.281 	.363 	.643 
    Reese 		- .292 	.338 	.415 	.753 	 
    Boone 		- .156 	.237 	.281 	.518 	 
    Cameron		- .295 	.375 	.526 	.901 	
    Vaughn		- .219 	.330 	.411 	.741 	
    Hammonds	- .167 	.250 	.222 	.472 	 
    Tucker		- .242 	.297 	.273 	.570 	  
    

Comments are closed.

About Brian Erts

Brian first met the greatest game in Detroit in 1968, that team played in a league called the "American League".... but I digress. Later after a family move he started a dalliance with the Cincinnati Reds, who perchance were in the midst of their greatest era. It was a romance that was greater than many could hope to be. After barely stomaching the strike of 1981 Brian headed West but never forgot the Reds, and even despite being surrounded by Giants and A's fans who tried to entice him with things both Green and Orange he found himself wondering what was up with Kal Daniels and was that kid from Moeller ever going to make us forget Davey. A long time member of SABR and a baseball history junkie he currently lives in Portland and can be followed at @baseballminutia

Category

Reds - General